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Follow the monthly candle and be profitable

  • #101
  • Sep 22, 2014 9:54am Sep 22, 2014 9:54am
We will not win the 27 operations every month ... The important thing is we close Green month ... losing is part of the game, but remember ... we only work 20 minutes every month for 48 months ... with yield 10% per month becomes 1k 100k PDF ... ... Patience, Discipline and Focus...
  • #102
  • Sep 22, 2014 9:54am Sep 22, 2014 9:54am
Quoting billytt
Quoting Robinho
{quote} Good morning friends (Brazil) I am an optimistic person, in everything I do in life, do not like pessimistic people. Life was made for living. But we go to the forex. 1 You can put the orders quietly in the early hours of the month. We know the market so slow estpa opens., Prercisamos not think of EA, Hi Rob, I am on your side. This trading method is very old and very good you have added your touch to it. and people should not try and change it. Ferrux posted good information and I agree. If you had example 60 % strike
...
Hi Billytt,

Can you elaborate on how to trade it on daily/ weekly TF

Kind regards
Kashif
  • #103
  • Sep 22, 2014 10:01am Sep 22, 2014 10:01am
Quoting billytt
{quote} This is a very good trading method, A lot of signal providers use this method but camouflage it. Weekly charts work too. I personally trade daily but my aim is different,(obviously I want pips) I have no history for trading so many pairs at same time and do not be afraid to adapt method to your own style. Say thanks to Robinho for posting this good thread,

Mr. Billy, Can you tell us here how the same system will be Profitable IF WE USE at Daily Candle? How many pips above/below Previous day Candle to trade.
  • #104
  • Sep 22, 2014 10:07am Sep 22, 2014 10:07am
Friends have worked with all of this ... D1, M15, H1, H8, H12 .... want to spend Diary for what? stay all day in front of the PC?

Work only 01 once a month
No need to stay in the PC
We will not change, and the same mistake ... just follow the monthly candle ... who want to increase the TP 100 pips, but not make the mistake of changing.

Let's not make the topic a tug of war ... Just follow the monthly candle ...
  • #105
  • Sep 22, 2014 10:12am Sep 22, 2014 10:12am
Quoting Robinho
Friends have worked with all of this ... D1, M15, H1, H8, H12 .... want to spend Diary for what? stay all day in front of the PC? Work only 01 once a month No need to stay in the PC We will not change, and the same mistake ... just follow the monthly candle ... who want to increase the TP 100 pips, but not make the mistake of changing. Let's not make the topic a tug of war ... Just follow the monthly candle ...
Well said again, Robinho. Why don't we all take Robinho's example and calm down? Why should we want to change things at any cost? If this system works consistently, it would be the dream of any trader. We just need to get started and test it. It takes time... so what? I see that most people still don't get our friend's point of view. Well, too bad...
  • #106
  • Sep 22, 2014 10:16am Sep 22, 2014 10:16am
Earn 400 pips in one day and the other is to lose 380 pips ... be wasting time ... we have to have something consistent ... win by 04/05 years, will lead us to success ... calm ...
  • #107
  • Sep 22, 2014 10:32am Sep 22, 2014 10:32am
If you trade less than the Monthly, I believe you will be spending much more time in front of the computer- and greatly increase your risk.

Most of these TPs/Stops are hitting within the first week of being set- in my experience back testing so far. A handful will hit TP and immediately swing 100 pips in the opposite direction.

What I would recommend- if you want to spend more time actively managing your trade, is to monitor your winning trades closely, and try to gain in excess of 60 pips. Like I said- so far, more than 50% of trades that have achieved 60 pips, could have achieved 100. And that would VASTLY improve your profit margin.

Please note this isnt all pairs, just the 4 USD crosses I've completed.

It will take a bit more time for the others, as I have to change the algorithm each cross pair to suit the pip "worth"

USD Crosses:
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled.png Size: 68 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled1.png Size: 69 KB
  • #108
  • Sep 22, 2014 10:42am Sep 22, 2014 10:42am
Quoting Pharm0r
If you trade less than the Monthly, I believe you will be spending much more time in front of the computer- and greatly increase your risk. Most of these TPs/Stops are hitting within the first week of being set- in my experience back testing so far. A handful will hit TP and immediately swing 100 pips in the opposite direction. What I would recommend- if you want to spend more time actively managing your trade, is to monitor your winning trades closely, and try to gain in excess of 60 pips. Like I said- so far, more than 50% of trades that have...
great job ... Congratulations !!!
  • #109
  • Sep 22, 2014 10:46am Sep 22, 2014 10:46am
Quoting Robinho
Earn 400 pips in one day and the other is to lose 380 pips ... be wasting time ... we have to have something consistent ... win by 04/05 years, will lead us to success ... calm ...

Hello Mr. Robinho.
Thank you very much for this Trading method. Whats the Secret of taking buy or sell trade After 20 pips?
  • #110
  • Sep 22, 2014 10:49am Sep 22, 2014 10:49am
This also leads me to believe, you can use less pairs and still achieve profitability. However; the more pairs you use, the more diversified your portfolio is, therefor it's exposed to less risk overall. But- with less risk comes less profits, all things being fair. Diversity is the safer route.

It may be worth following the trends of each pair every month, and deciding which ones are TRENDING, and respond best to this type of trading. Example, you wouldn't use AUD/USD because it's a loser- overall. However, EUR/USD would be on your team because it's a winner, and has 83% tp at 100.

Just some thoughts.

Personally- I'd diversify as much as possible. Seems as even the losers don't lose that bad.
  • #111
  • Sep 22, 2014 11:05am Sep 22, 2014 11:05am
Quoting Pharm0r
If you trade less than the Monthly, I believe you will be spending much more time in front of the computer- and greatly increase your risk. Most of these TPs/Stops are hitting within the first week of being set- in my experience back testing so far. A handful will hit TP and immediately swing 100 pips in the opposite direction. What I would recommend- if you want to spend more time actively managing your trade, is to monitor your winning trades closely, and try to gain in excess of 60 pips. Like I said- so far, more than 50% of trades that have...

You put defeat this month (September) for AUDUSD, but look for my picture in post 01, which this month won + 60pips. It's also good to see the performance of the other currency pairs ... AUDCAD, AUDNZD, ... We are the entries that do ...
  • #112
  • Sep 22, 2014 11:22am Sep 22, 2014 11:22am
Quoting Robinho
Good morning friends ... optimism always. No auditioned last in all pairs, but I do not think we lose a month of 08 + entries ... in any month for my tests and seen it looks. We need not be anxious, next week just the month and we will do all the entries together. Good morning everyone and a week of much PEACE. Note: Do not forget to look at the scene putting only 10 pips TP ... long term is very interesting.
Hi Rob, no matter what you say ,no matter what the return people will still be negative. THIS IS AN EXCELLENT Method, tried and tested, be good, roll on October
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #113
  • Sep 22, 2014 11:29am Sep 22, 2014 11:29am
Just back tested 3 pairs so far:
Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx Follow Monthly Candle.xlsx   9 KB | 750 downloads

Very good work by PharmOr, but I do show EURUSD - April as a 'Buy' and a loss.
I like this methods diversification as mentioned by PharmOr.

Robinho, if you don't mind me asking how long have you been trading with this method and what is your average monthly return?
Dave
  • #114
  • Sep 22, 2014 11:30am Sep 22, 2014 11:30am
Quoting behman8850
{quote} Hello Mr. Robinho. Thank you very much for this Trading method. Whats the Secret of taking buy or sell trade After 20 pips?

Still WAITING for BILLY and Robinho's replies to My queries!
  • #115
  • Sep 22, 2014 11:38am Sep 22, 2014 11:38am
Quoting 236dave
Just back tested 3 pairs so far: {file} Very good work by PharmOr, but I do show EURUSD - April as a 'Buy' and a loss. I like this methods diversification as mentioned by PharmOr. Robinho, if you don't mind me asking how long have you been trading with this method and what is your average monthly return? Dave
The March monthly candle was red, so April would be a sale.
  • #116
  • Sep 22, 2014 11:39am Sep 22, 2014 11:39am
Quoting behman8850
{quote} Still WAITING for BILLY and Robinho's replies to My queries!
sorry if I missed your question I shall look back regards
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #117
  • Sep 22, 2014 11:41am Sep 22, 2014 11:41am
Quoting mkashifk
{quote}{quote} Hi Billytt, Can you elaborate on how to trade it on daily/ weekly TF Kind regards Kashif
Hi, I will explain a bit in next post, be good
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #118
  • Sep 22, 2014 11:42am Sep 22, 2014 11:42am
Quoting Robinho
{quote} You put defeat this month (September) for AUDUSD, but look for my picture in post 01, which this month won + 60pips. It's also good to see the performance of the other currency pairs ... AUDCAD, AUDNZD, ... We are the entries that do ...
There is a 30 pip difference between our pending orders. This could be due to time zones, and/or brokers.

I'm doing my back testing off of the charts on

http://www.dailyfx.com/charts/tradingview
  • #119
  • Sep 22, 2014 11:48am Sep 22, 2014 11:48am
Quoting Robinho
Just follow the previous monthly candle Monthly candle closes red: We will place a sell stop pending order 20 pips below the opening price of the new monthly candle with 60 pips TP and 100 pips STOP. Monthly blue candle closes: We will place a pending order buy stop 20 pips above the opening price of the new monthly candle with 60 pips TP and 100 pips STOP. 27 Pairs: eurusd,gbpusd,audusd,nzdusd,eurjpy.gbpjpy.audjpy,nzdjpy,euraud,gbpaud,usdcad,eurcad,gbpchf,usdchf, usdjpy,eurnzd,gbpnzd,audcad,audchf,audnzd,cadchf,cadjpy,chfjpy,gbpcad,nzdcad, nzdchf...

Robinho... this is just my humble take on the method your have presented here...

This system does not provide any kind of a edge in the content of technical and fundamental trading... just going by previous months candle is not all that especial.. not to mention your negative RR..
all this does extends the duration of the result, which in my estimation it would be at best a break even in expand of a year time... but your not spending much time on this, however, money needs to make returns yearly.
The bottom line is that any method should provide some sort of edge... I don't see one here.. maybe is just me.

regards,

empire
Passion, Persist, Patience, Protect
  • #120
  • Sep 22, 2014 12:00pm Sep 22, 2014 12:00pm
Quoting behman8850
{quote} Mr. Billy, Can you tell us here how the same system will be Profitable IF WE USE at Daily Candle? How many pips above/below Previous day Candle to trade.
Hi, sorry I did not reply sooner.
I am currently trading a method trading only e/j and nothing else and originally I was looking for 10 pips.
10 pips on e/j daily being broken is currently 79% strike rate, the lowest being 75% and highest 84%, I have tested it over 25 years and also in blocks of 5 years.

My exact method will not be disclosed but any pro city trader will know what I am doing.
Robs monthly method is good, I honestly think the weekly is even better but I have no data and daily is the one for me.
With a bit of extra information using inside/outside bars ,support/resistance etc some entries can be missed out, this is good for statistics/odds.
you need to add into losing positions at times and you also have the possibility of gaining more pips..
most important, you can use a big stop,no stop or re enter a trade again after a loss or use the 50% retrace method which I never have done. and you need a big bank roll. This is not fore the novice, be good..
and folks give Rob a break
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
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