Trading is as simple as ABCD

Trading market opens these last 6 months has taught me a lot about trading for sure and one thing I'm recognising is if I'm trying to follow the money at market opens then maybe the best time is just after the open not before??? Especially not before the NYO when as Mr V regularly points out there's some misleading direction prior to the session direction setting up properly.

Therefore common sense dictates wait until just after these opens then look to see whoose top of the TTindy and go with that pair for the session....

I had a couple of pending orders to sell GBPAUD and EURNZD but they were rushing up the page so thought its best to just stand aside for a while until all the rushing about calms down then have a look...

Sorry after all that talk of stepping aside I just couldn't let this one go, perfect setup mA turned green price crossed MA retested and gone, beautiful stuff!!!

Sorry in all my excitement forgot to post chart...

Just want to quickly say that my last entry is a perfect example of what we should be looking for here, regardless of whether it works or not but have a look at this one and lock it into your memory its about as good as it gets...

I'm really looking for top trenders in the 5 min TT's to turn back in the direction of the 5 min trend on the 1 minute chart as shown here and get in on the first 2 CCI signals after the slope changes colour...

There's one negative with this entry and thats the fact that its already done its ATR for the day so the big question is how far will it go???

Well of course thats always the big question with all our trades I guess, when to exit????

Having banked nicely this morning you must best guess whether an often repeated trading day is playing out. That is London moved up, then roughly 2 hour sideways move (with a fake out sell pre US open) then US session reverts to London direction. If that is the case the London session high will not hold and we'll go higher and you have a massive day on your hands. If the mornings high looks like holding then you grab a few pips or leave to BE, again safe in the knowledge that you spanked it this morning. What a lovely position to be in. Nice one.

What you don't do UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES is give yourself any mental grief and second guess yourself and indulge in the coulda, shoulda, woulda talks. You nailed it this morning thats what counts. If it doesn't follow through higher so what.

Took 2 nd CCI entry but as atr very high already can fully expect a reversal from here so I've moved both stops below last HL if stopped out should be about a net BE trade with the first trades profit covering the 2nd trades loss... But hopefully if it pushes upwards I'll be laughing...

Didn't work out to plan lost 1.3 pips in the end but these 4 are looking good to go...

Ok lets see if I have any better luck with EURAUD???



If this doesn't go might have to start thinking about taking half off at point B the first test of the trade.... Lets see how this pans out???

Looks like we could be going through this time if the tick charts anything to go by???

nope LH so banked 6 pips for my trouble, its all getting a bit frustrating now with so many good entries not materialising into any sizable wins, sometimes wonder if I wouldn't be better off just scalping in direction of the TT's that way I could get some good profits still but just bit by bit, might still catch the odd beauty like this morning but the honest truth is these 10 pip runs are more often the case than the bigger winners.

Now I've banked I guess its going to push higher just to really annoy me...

Yep very wise words as usual MR V. and I've had a very positive day today not just in pips but in some really good entries that didn't quite follow through, Of course that immediately sets me off thinking "Should I hold , Should I fold" Its the same old dilemma as always, but I am coming to the realisation that its never going to be easy to know whats for the best so you make your choice and live by it good or bad as you say...

I think though that the first entries after a slope change back with the 5 min trend are well worth pursuing and holding until the MA changes colour, that way I won't get shaken out too early but of course I wouldn't of got so many pips out of my first trade today doing that so its all swings and roundabouts I guess...

That comes back to your suggestion yesterday to close half on each push and then hold the other half until MA changes colour so best of both worlds, going to give that some serious consideration, because that also lends itself to the "paper break even " that pres78 use to use, especially when you consider I'm now trying to trade with the 5 minute trend too...

Like I say all things to think about but don't worry I'm not driving myself mad with it all just trying to work out the best way forward. Feel like I've got the entries off pat so now need to sort out trade management and Exits...

All good stuff Mr V. all good stuff....

Got up earlier than normal today but still late to the party ,5 good signals gone already....


Oh well never mind there be another one along soon plus I want to catch these moves just after the MA changes colour not now after its gone nearly 100 pips already , better off waiting for the reversal up maybe????

What will probably happen is LO will turn it back up for a while turning our MA green then it will turn back down with a wallop. But no need to guess here , in fact its dangerous to do so as it gives me a bias I don't want, just awatch and follow the money as it comes to the table...

Here's something interesting GBPAUD and EURAUD are very similar charts very closely correlated but GBPAUD appears to signal a minute or 2 before EURAUD that could be handy to know next time round...

Also a quick observation about these nice moves, look how often they are break and retest of those 25 levels??? Also how a strong trender like this regularly uses the previous low as resistance to start the next move down, all good signs of a strong trender well worth trading....

At the same time well worth mentioning that if a pair IS NOT doing those things its not trending that strongly...

Can't say this enough guys, WE JUST WANT TO TRADE STRONG TRENDERS no matter what timeframe you trade, simple as that...

Here's what my top trenders looks like right now....



So I should be looking to sell GBPAUD for instance as its top of both TT tables 1min and 5 min but this is when we have to use common sense and not just blindly follow our indicators. We have to try to fathom out whats going on with GBPAUD and whether we should be selling it right now. Best way to do that is look at the price action and market structure to assess whats happening and what action we should take??

First warning sign is how far its gone since this current move started, from the last colour change, its gone over 100 pips so maybe its had enough??? Check your ADR before trading...




Something else we need to learn here is to identify when a strong trender is slowing down so if we have been trading it think about closing out or if like this one its gone a fair way already then it warns us not to take anymore new sell entries asa its all a bit suspicious. Of course it might be its just going to consolidate a bit before carrying on down but it also maybe a correction about to start or even a new reversal ??? Who knows but we just have to learn to identify these early warning signs as we go...

One thing is there's no need to rush in frightened we're going to miss out on a great move. We're trading 1 minute charts here and another entry is just a few minutes away and 9 times out of 10 will give you a break and retest entry immediately after a level break. No need to rush, take your time and only trade when you're 100% sure its going in your direction... even then there's only ever a 50% chance of winning.......

OK we've got a bit of time here so I'll just tell you what I'm thinking right now and how I analyse my charts first thing in the morning...

First thing I do is look at the news for the day, when trading 1 minute charts its really , really important to know whats going to be released and when. You'd be surprised how many times I get caught out by news releases, problem is I get so absorbed in my charts I just plain forget about the news!!! Best thing I've found is to put any "red news" releases on my mobile phone as an alarm 15 mins before the release so I can take the appropriate action, depending which pair I'm trading etc.



This morning we need to be careful around the 2 EUR announcements at 08.00hrs and 08.30hrs I generally don't trade the news currency up to 30 mins before hand. How ever that said there are some lovely pre-news trades to be had on the news currency of the day. Quite often you will get some lovely little 1 minute trends in the 2 to 3 hours running up to the news so keep an eye out for them. EURAUD was one today traded beautifully... Just to the aside here with these pre-news moves, I'm wondering if its because the London traders get some insider information and so try to get themselves positioned accordingly before the release so the 1 min trends leading up to the news could be an indication of which way the spikes going to go. just a thought but if that was the case then today I might expect a bad news release. Not worth gambling on but just an observation...

The best way for me to trade the news is the pre-news moves and the post news moves which I've discussed before so won't bore you with it here, but suffice to say thats when my 1 minute CSM comes into play.

If I'm in a news currency trade then I decide what to do when my warning alarm goes off, 9 times out of 10 I will bank it just before the release.

Don't forget to set those alarms really really important....



The next thing I do is quickly check my TT indy to immediately see whats moving and trending strongly. Then I have a look at the top 4 trenders to assess whether or not to take a trade, always looking for evidence that the trend is continuing with strong pushs in direction of the trend eg strong AB moves then look to enter on a pullback to a nice level. My most succesful entries are without doubt break and retests of previous S and R levels, especially 25 levels or daily lows,highs and closes.

When I look at my TT indy I'm looking for the top 5 min pairs to be top of the 1 min too then look for an entry. The best entries are when the 1 min MA slope changes back with the 5 min top trenders.

One last thing I will say is before I take an entry on my 1 min charts I must be 100% sure that its going in the direction I'm trading if I have any doubt I don't take it. simple as that you must be 100% convinced you're right or forget it... Of course You've still only got a 50% chance of being right but at least you've got a chance...

Hope that helps...

First trade of the day a reversal trade on GBPAUD, quite often see this when an overnight move is reversed initially by the London traders as the overnight sellers give them the liquidity they need to get them going. However it might turn straight back down with the 5 min trend. Who knows?? But I'm at BE so who cares???

Always worth trying to catch that first HL of the day...

Knocked me out at BE but there's another one just round the corner...

Hmmmm, thats interesting, I've just lost 10 pips trying to buy GBPAUD. Now when we win or lose we should review our trades and try to workout what went wrong, so that we can avoid making the same mistake again....

So lets have a look at the charts at the time and see where I went wrong??

Gotta tell yer its not very clever, not very clever at all. In fact one of the dumbest trades I think I've ever taken even by my bizarre standards!!!

Part of me doesn't want to share it as its such a bad trade but I've got to because this is where I go wrong every bloody time!!!! I think I know better than the market!!!! I think I know where the markets going before the market does and guess what I get it wrong time after time, but and heres the really crazy part, if I just follow my simple strategy I would get it right more times than not, so why don't I do that????

All I have to do is follow the trend!!! Whats so hard about that???? Just follow the trend until it ends!!!

I've even got an indicator that tells me whats trending strongest but I still trade non trending pairs or even worst strong trending pairs the wrong way!!!!

Let me show you what I mean, take my trade GBPAUD trade this morning, heres the chart that I traded with my 2 entries, first one is ok MA turned green and I had a nice AB move up followed by a nice HL so took it. Not too bad but why???? It wasn't a top trender at the time??? Then I get stopped out at BE and so have another go!! WTF am I playing at???? Wasn't it enough it didn't work the first time???? But there's worst to come....



Not only was it not a TT but look at the TT's at the time when I was messing about with GBPAUD...here are the top 4 at the time if you look at my previous post when I posted my GBPAUD trade you're see GBPJPY, EURAUD, GBPCAD and AUDJPY..as the top 4 trenders 1 mins









Now I ask you?? which pairs would you have liked to have been trading???? Which ones are obviously going one way without any doubt??? Would you have picked GBPAUD to trade???? Even worst would you be buying it when nearly every other GBP pair was pouring down the page???

No of course you wouldn't you're all probably sane intelligent human beings that with common sense and good eyesight can see which pairs were setting up better... Good eyesight be buggered a blind man could of traded it better than me!!!

So the question is why??? Why did I trade that stupid rangy bloody GBPAUD??? As opposed to the top trenders???

Because I thought I knew better than the market which pair should be going where, because I had a little theory in my head that London would buy back the overnight sellers and set themselves off for the day, because I want to show how clever I am by out guessing the market?? Now thats where my problem lies I think I know better than the market!!!!

Time after time I do that, I think its gone far enough , I think its at the top of its daily range, I think its time to reverse etc etc...

Get the message???? Its not what I think that makes money its the market!!!! Just follow the bloody market you moron!!!! My whole strategy is based on following the money as it comes to the table at market opens, so why don't I just do that??? Follow the money!!! How many times have I posted here "Trade strong trending pairs only" . Its all about trading strong trending pairs!!! Well its time I listened to my own advice...

OK I've ranted enough for one day and made myself look like a complete nutcase so the bottom line is what have I learnt today from this appalling trade and the missed opportunities on the other strong trenders??? what can I take forward to ensure it never happens again???

Well it reminds me of something a very wise old trader by the name of Tom Long told me, right when I first started trading, he said "Clive all you gotta do is trade with the strongest trends until they end...." Simple as that and something else he said that I will never forget, when the market is at its all time low and trending down, theres a reason for that, traders are selling it!! So just keep selling it!!

He said the number of times traders would say to him "Tom, it can't keep going down its gotta come back sooner than later" but he'd keep on selling it whilst they searched for the bottom....and kept on losing!!!

Ok so what am I going to do going forward? Well basically I'm going to trade my strategy as it was intended which is to follow the money as it comes to the table , which means of course trading strong trenders with the trend with clear evidence that the trend is still strong and continuing eg strong AB moves in direction of trend clearly taking out last drive. Only time to not trade a strong trender is if I see failed drives where the last drive is not taken out.

What I'm NOT going to do from now on???

Think I know better than the market. Try to outguess the market, trying to catch reversals early before they've actually happened.

Nope from now on I'm just trading strong trends in the direction of the trend until it ends......

Hello Clive, thanks for sharing your strategy, I think the top 8 trenders is brilliant

I haven't look at it for long, but I thought maybe entering at high/low break is best entry, because it is also sign that the trend is resuming

and one more thing is there any way to turn off the CAD, NZD and CHF crosses, in the top 8 trenders indy? CAD and NZD cross spread is a bit though and CHF move the same way as EUR

Hi Danzka

I think its brilliant too if I was to follow it!!!

Good idea about entering on break of highs and lows I'm just not a breakout trader really struggle with it as I like to go to BE quickly but with breakouts I get stopped out on the retest. Good idea if price builds a horizontal level to break. But try it and let me know how you get on.

Can't really turn them off as far as I know but you can select atr=true then it calculates the top trenders taking into account the volitility of the pair (it uses atr in calculation) this means you tend to get the top trending pairs rather than just the ones that travel the most pips. So it might do what you want without leaving any out. Of course the other thing you can do is not use the pairs you don't like so just ignore them when they come to the top and use the top 8 pairs but eye the chart for the best entries.

Hope that helps Clive.

Hey just see your signature,"too much forecast will kill you" bloody love that!!! You must of read my last post!!!