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The similarity system

  • #8,821
  • Sep 21, 2014 1:02pm Sep 21, 2014 1:02pm
Do you see what happens when you don't instruct intelligent people to following an inflexible trading algorithm but simply give them a concept? Look at the amount of data following into this thread.
That is the way to go. I am learning a lot ooh!
  • #8,822
  • Sep 21, 2014 1:06pm Sep 21, 2014 1:06pm
Quoting kprsa
{quote} Sorry, doesn't work with the Comment function. See the response to Baille. k


No worries. I like the note better.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #8,823
  • Sep 21, 2014 1:08pm Sep 21, 2014 1:08pm
Quoting Eurusdd
Do you see what happens when you don't instruct intelligent people to following an inflexible trading algorithm but simply give them a concept? Look at the amount of data following into this thread. That is the way to go. I am learning a lot ooh!
Hey Boss... are you sure you're not running a social experiment in the background? LOL! Hope the research is going well!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #8,824
  • Sep 21, 2014 1:10pm Sep 21, 2014 1:10pm
Quoting kprsa
{quote} MT4 does not allow the font of the Comment to change, and I use Comment because of so much text to show. This version is with all the info in an alert box. It might be annoying to use in the live trading, but you can see the probabilities and set up a strategy. {file}
WOW! I just noticed you named it for me, what an honor!!!! If I could vouch for you a thousand times I would.
  • #8,825
  • Sep 21, 2014 1:10pm Sep 21, 2014 1:10pm
The 1hr chart gave the first hint of a stationary point/zone at 1.28413. The other time-frames from 1min to 4hr are not in tune yet. so, Be careful selling more into the open. Soon, these time-frames will agree and the turning point (max,min or inf) will be defined! At the exact price, I will let you know.
  • #8,826
  • Sep 21, 2014 1:14pm Sep 21, 2014 1:14pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Hey Boss... are you sure you're not running a social experiment in the background? LOL! Hope the research is going well!
No! I am just enjoying the contribution from you and others.
  • #8,827
  • Sep 21, 2014 1:17pm Sep 21, 2014 1:17pm
Just some language around inflection points...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflection_point
Life is too short to have anything but delusional notions about yourself.
  • #8,828
  • Sep 21, 2014 2:11pm Sep 21, 2014 2:11pm
Quoting kprsa
{quote} With all due respect, if you do not post the source, why would anybody believe that the probabilities are not generated by a pseudorandom generator? This even makes sense if one wants to just draw something on the screen (up until the next incompatible version of MT4), but for this purpose it is equivalent to not posting anything. k

I did not post source because I have a lot of commented out stuff in there and the code is a bit of a mess. Based upon how the indicator is received here, I may post the source for a modified version. I guess you will just have to trust me. My indicator used to use two different ways to calculate the probability of recurrence, but I found that although they resulted in a different value, they paralleled each other (i.e. when one increased the other did too), which I think is very important - the relative probability. Compare apples to apples and oranges to oranges. Anyway, I may also create another version based upon non-parameteiuc stats - medians, ranges, that sort of thing.

I can tell you that the upper CI is calculated in the following way.

Mean transient zone height + (2 X Standard Error of the mean). In statistics, this is a quick and dirty method for determining 95% probability. In plain english, it means 95% of values fall below the upper CI. The assumptions are numerous.
  • #8,829
  • Sep 21, 2014 2:57pm Sep 21, 2014 2:57pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Hi Sciurus, Eurusdd's Proposition 1 states given a price in timeframe T, there exists positive integers k, h, such that every price is h-recurrent. So the conclusion you've arrived at must be the correct approach.
I'm not sure that my approach is correct. It is simply my interpretation of EURUSDD's original proposition. As for the positive integers, well, I suppose the currency crosses really have no positive or negative, since positive pips and negative pips are relative to which is the base currency. Perhaps the integer can be in either direction.
  • #8,830
  • Sep 21, 2014 3:31pm Sep 21, 2014 3:31pm
Quoting Eurusdd
Thing about this proposition! Consider the lottery, a game of pure chance! For example the 6/49 lottery. What is the odd of the combination A-B-C-D-E-F as winner in the next draw? Surely that is 1 out of 49.48.47.46.45.44 = 1 out of 10,068,347,520. small indeed. Now take all the 6/49 lotteries in the world, and go through all their past draws and if you find the combination 1-2-3-4-5-6, you are a very lucky dude. The combination 1-2-3-4-5-6 is equally likely but there are technical reasons why in real-life you may never experience it across the...
For a deeper approach there are two variants:
1) - Any combination of all timeframes, all pairs.
2) - linear combinations of all timeframes, all pairs.
According to the story, for example, there are 10 bars in a row bullish H1.
If you currently bullish least 9 bars ....
There are other "forbidden" strings.
Still, I have a feeling that 11 bars will also be bullish.
  • #8,831
  • Sep 21, 2014 3:55pm Sep 21, 2014 3:55pm
Quoting Eurusdd
The 1hr chart gave the first hint of a stationary point/zone at 1.28413. The other time-frames from 1min to 4hr are not in tune yet. so, Be careful selling more into the open. Soon, these time-frames will agree and the turning point (max,min or inf) will be defined! At the exact price, I will let you know.
Thanks boss, learning how to spot that turn
  • #8,832
  • Sep 21, 2014 4:07pm Sep 21, 2014 4:07pm
4hr chart confirmed the stationary zone forming on the 1hr. so we are left with 1min-30min for confirmation. This means that 1.28225-1.2841 is a stationary zone. selling is not advised unless after completion. trend change (inflexion or minimum) highly likely!
  • #8,833
  • Sep 21, 2014 4:14pm Sep 21, 2014 4:14pm
Quoting Eurusdd
The 1hr chart gave the first hint of a stationary point/zone at 1.28413. The other time-frames from 1min to 4hr are not in tune yet. so, Be careful selling more into the open. Soon, these time-frames will agree and the turning point (max,min or inf) will be defined! At the exact price, I will let you know.
she is showing signs of the bottom. i can see the zone is becoming impervious to flow
  • #8,834
  • Sep 21, 2014 4:20pm Sep 21, 2014 4:20pm
Quoting Eurusdd
4hr chart confirmed the stationary zone forming on the 1hr. so we are left with 1min-30min for confirmation. This means that 1.28225-1.2841 is a stationary zone. selling is not advised unless after completion. trend change (inflexion or minimum) highly likely!
Hi Eurusdd,
There are some mathematical related to these turning points ?.
For now, I can see your signals are successively from "timeframe high" to "low timeframe". Whereupon, any indicator usually give the same signals at the same time in each timeframe.
  • #8,835
  • Sep 21, 2014 4:23pm Sep 21, 2014 4:23pm
Quoting burnssss
{quote} Hi Eurusdd, There are some mathematical related to these turning points ?. For now, I can see your signals are successively from "timeframe high" to "low timeframe". Whereupon, any indicator usually give the same signals at the same time in each timeframe.
i believe so, inflextion is the propery of a wave, max,inflection, minimum. This can be described by a mathematical equation, 1st order or 2nd order ordinary differential equation. eurusdd, my maths is rusty. am i right?
  • #8,836
  • Sep 21, 2014 4:23pm Sep 21, 2014 4:23pm
Quoting burnssss
{quote} Hi Eurusdd, There are some mathematical related to these turning points ?. For now, I can see your signals are successively from "timeframe high" to "low timeframe". Whereupon, any indicator usually give the same signals at the same time in each timeframe.
Yes, there is only one path and once all those time-frames lock into a change, it will occur.
  • #8,837
  • Sep 21, 2014 4:47pm Sep 21, 2014 4:47pm
Quoting kprsa
{quote} Hi all, a minor update to the Recurrence statistic indicator. I have been using this version in this (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7694035#post7694035) post. This version enables you to specify the "left" and "right" h-values separately. This means that, for example, you can select the h_left=3 on the 5 min TF and select h_right=12 to calculate the clearance probability (and the probability of reaching within the calculated <k>, 2<k>, 3<k>) within 12*5 min = 1 h. Don't trade against strong trends. Be good. Cheers,...

Nice indicator. Did you know that your grey potential transient zone channel is a re-creation of a Donchian Channel? Pretty cool. Cheers.
  • #8,838
  • Sep 21, 2014 4:50pm Sep 21, 2014 4:50pm
Quoting Sciurus
{quote} Nice indicator. Did you know that your grey potential transient zone channel is a re-creation of a Donchian Channel? Pretty cool. Cheers.
Yes.
k
  • #8,839
  • Sep 21, 2014 5:11pm Sep 21, 2014 5:11pm
a close above 1.2830/44 would mean a bottom for me. we will go up before down.
  • #8,840
  • Sep 21, 2014 5:22pm Sep 21, 2014 5:22pm
I am long. 4H timeframe as base.
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A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
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