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The similarity system

  • #8,801
  • Sep 21, 2014 11:10am Sep 21, 2014 11:10am
Quoting cfdtaleong
{quote} My "method" is still rough on the edges but yes I have my QUEEN finally. Now to work on the trading 101 stuff
From reading everything you have been working through, it is apparent to me that you have more than you realize.
  • #8,802
  • Sep 21, 2014 11:13am Sep 21, 2014 11:13am
Quoting Sciurus
{quote} The problem with calculating k is that if you include 0's in your calculation, you end up with a non-normal distribution of data, and hence any parametric statistics you perform using that data will be invalid. One way to circumvent this is to calculate K based on non-parametric stats, or only use values on the positive real number scale (i.e. non-zeroes), and then understand the limitations of your calculation. For example, if I were to calculate the average height of the confirmed transient zones, i would be very biased if I included all...
Last Hint from me since you brought it up, Zone height IS important and offers 2 ways to trade it dependent upon which way you prefer to trade the Zone.
  • #8,803
  • Sep 21, 2014 11:15am Sep 21, 2014 11:15am
Quoting Baillie
{quote} Last Hint from me since you brought it up, Zone height IS important and offers 2 ways to trade it dependent upon which way you prefer to trade the Zone.

I'm not saying zone height is not important. My point is that you need to be aware of the limitations of calculating probabilities based upon data with zeroes in it, and not knowing the distribution of that data.
  • #8,804
  • Sep 21, 2014 11:16am Sep 21, 2014 11:16am
Quoting Baillie
{quote} Last Hint from me since you brought it up, Zone height IS important and offers 2 ways to trade it dependent upon which way you prefer to trade the Zone.

In fact, my indicator calculates the 95% confidence interval for confirmed transient zone heights.
  • #8,805
  • Sep 21, 2014 11:22am Sep 21, 2014 11:22am
Quoting Sciurus
{quote} I'm not saying zone height is not important. My point is that you need to be aware of the limitations of calculating probabilities based upon data with zeroes in it, and not knowing the distribution of that data.
Yes, I understood you. I was just pointing out for all that h and k do not have to be equal and that the height is important.
  • #8,806
  • Sep 21, 2014 11:23am Sep 21, 2014 11:23am
Quoting Sciurus
{quote} In fact, my indicator calculates the 95% confidence interval for confirmed transient zone heights.
What indicator is that? not seen it here.
  • #8,807
  • Sep 21, 2014 11:24am Sep 21, 2014 11:24am
Quoting Sciurus
{quote} The problem with calculating k is that if you include 0's in your calculation, you end up with a non-normal distribution of data, and hence any parametric statistics you perform using that data will be invalid. One way to circumvent this is to calculate K based on non-parametric stats, or only use values on the positive real number scale (i.e. non-zeroes), and then understand the limitations of your calculation. For example, if I were to calculate the average height of the confirmed transient zones, i would be very biased if I included all...
As you could have easily verified in the provided source code, I used only non-zero values to calculate the <k>.

k
  • #8,808
  • Sep 21, 2014 11:26am Sep 21, 2014 11:26am
Quoting Baillie
{quote} Yes, I understood you. I was just pointing out for all that h and k do not have to be equal and that the height is important.

Good point, but all of this makes me think I should make an indicator that will spit out a bunch of statistics into excel on transient zones for proper statistical analysis. Hmmmm.
  • #8,809
  • Sep 21, 2014 11:40am Sep 21, 2014 11:40am
Quoting Eurusdd
{quote} What does it cost to take a front row seat in your church, FX-Jay? I am in the queue. Do I have to run 100m everyday? I am in love with your approach! Talk to the market, speak to it, move mountains with your words. Yes, that is the spirit!
Well what can I say, I have a great teacher
  • #8,810
  • Sep 21, 2014 11:43am Sep 21, 2014 11:43am
Quoting Eurusdd
Thing about this proposition! Consider the lottery, a game of pure chance! For example the 6/49 lottery. What is the odd of the combination A-B-C-D-E-F as winner in the next draw? Surely that is 1 out of 49.48.47.46.45.44 = 1 out of 10,068,347,520. small indeed. Now take all the 6/49 lotteries in the world, and go through all their past draws and if you find the combination 1-2-3-4-5-6, you are a very lucky dude. The combination 1-2-3-4-5-6 is equally likely but there are technical reasons why in real-life you may never experience it across the...
Everyone should read this very well, that's where the trick could be found
  • #8,811
  • Sep 21, 2014 11:49am Sep 21, 2014 11:49am
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} Everyone should read this very well, that's where the trick could be found
Exactly!!!

Probabilities are #1 in my opinion! How many times can it be said before catching on?
  • #8,812
  • Sep 21, 2014 12:00pm Sep 21, 2014 12:00pm
Quoting Baillie
{quote} What indicator is that? not seen it here.
I haven't posted it. Here it is. I did not upload it because quite frankly there are a couple here that do basically the same thing already.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Sciurus_recurrence_V1.5.ex4   19 KB | 626 downloads
  • #8,813
  • Sep 21, 2014 12:02pm Sep 21, 2014 12:02pm
Quoting kprsa
{quote} As you could have easily verified in the provided source code, I used only non-zero values to calculate the <k>. k

Sorry, I did not look through your source code. In fact I should download your indicator and test it out
  • #8,814
  • Sep 21, 2014 12:21pm Sep 21, 2014 12:21pm
Quoting Sciurus
{quote} I haven't posted it. Here it is. I did not upload it because quite frankly there are a couple here that do basically the same thing already. {file}
Very cool, thank you, I like to compare so no problem thank you for your generosity!
  • #8,815
  • Sep 21, 2014 12:40pm Sep 21, 2014 12:40pm
Quoting kprsa
{quote} Hi all, a minor update to the Recurrence statistic indicator. I have been using this version in this (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7694035#post7694035) post. This version enables you to specify the "left" and "right" h-values separately. This means that, for example, you can select the h_left=3 on the 5 min TF and select h_right=12 to calculate the clearance probability (and the probability of reaching within the calculated <k>, 2<k>, 3<k>) within 12*5 min = 1 h. Don't trade against strong trends. Be good. Cheers,...
Hey Kprsa!

Many thanks for the new version of the indicator. This new feature is actually very useful!
Can I register one suggestion: Is it possible to place the text to the right of the screen in the reserve area to the right of the Chart Shift limit. It is hard to see the text over the price chart.

Cheers again!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #8,816
  • Sep 21, 2014 12:44pm Sep 21, 2014 12:44pm
Quoting Baillie
{quote} Thank you for your generosity, but is there any way to make the text a little bigger? I need to squint to read it, gives me a headache if I do it too long. Hint** This Indicator is Fantastic and should be used if you are trading TZ's. Freefox's also. enough said.
MT4 does not allow the font of the Comment to change, and I use Comment because of so much text to show.
This version is with all the info in an alert box. It might be annoying to use in the live trading, but you can see the probabilities and set up a strategy.

Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 RecurrenceStatisticV3_baille.mq4   14 KB | 844 downloads
  • #8,817
  • Sep 21, 2014 12:48pm Sep 21, 2014 12:48pm
Quoting Sciurus
{quote} I haven't posted it. Here it is. I did not upload it because quite frankly there are a couple here that do basically the same thing already. {file}
With all due respect, if you do not post the source, why would anybody believe that the probabilities are not generated by a pseudorandom generator?
This even makes sense if one wants to just draw something on the screen (up until the next incompatible version of MT4), but for this purpose it is equivalent to not posting anything.

k
  • #8,818
  • Sep 21, 2014 12:49pm Sep 21, 2014 12:49pm
Quoting Sciurus
{quote} The problem with calculating k is that if you include 0's in your calculation, you end up with a non-normal distribution of data, and hence any parametric statistics you perform using that data will be invalid. One way to circumvent this is to calculate K based on non-parametric stats, or only use values on the positive real number scale (i.e. non-zeroes), and then understand the limitations of your calculation. For example, if I were to calculate the average height of the confirmed transient zones, i would be very biased if...
Hi Sciurus,

Eurusdd's Proposition 1 states given a price in timeframe T, there exists positive integers k, h, such that every price is h-recurrent.
So the conclusion you've arrived at must be the correct approach.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #8,819
  • Sep 21, 2014 12:51pm Sep 21, 2014 12:51pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Hey Kprsa! Many thanks for the new version of the indicator. This new feature is actually very useful! Can I register one suggestion: Is it possible to place the text to the right of the screen in the reserve area to the right of the Chart Shift limit. It is hard to see the text over the price chart. Cheers again!
Sorry, doesn't work with the Comment function. See the response to Baille.
k
  • #8,820
  • Sep 21, 2014 12:53pm Sep 21, 2014 12:53pm
Quoting kprsa
{quote} MT4 does not allow the font of the Comment to change, and I use Comment because of so much text to show. This version is with all the info in an alert box. It might be annoying to use in the live trading, but you can see the probabilities and set up a strategy. {file}
This is great! Will have to just keep the alert box open to be less annoying. Beats the hell out of having a headache from squinting to read.

PS: like the defaults.
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