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Follow the monthly candle and be profitable

  • #41
  • Edited 4:36am Sep 21, 2014 4:34am | Edited 4:36am
Quoting FerruFx
... Keep in mind that within a month price goes up and down and in this case it may have hit the -100 pips down before reaching the 60 pips up. So that's important to check the M1 chart to see the price movement within this month and find if it reached TP or SL first.
That's important to consider of course. Robinho's past experience would be useful on this point, and also an EA should be able to assess the past performance with 100% accuracy as entries and exits don't involve any external influence but only a mathematical assessment. On a second thought, when I suggested about a manual EA in a previous post, to be launched soon after the month's candle is drawn, I forgot to consider it should be possible to add a time limit, so the EA could place the orders in a totally automatic way.
You're a well known and valuable coder in this forum. You think it would be possible to build such an EA?

P.S. - I just want to point out, as this is the second time that I suggest an EA, that I'm against EA's in general. I'm aware they can quickly destroy good systems and threads, as it's happened many times in the past. I just think in this case it would be a rare valid exception by considering the inputs.
Then, by looking at the flip side of the coin, if the system proves itself profitable, someone could use it to sell and make money
  • #42
  • Sep 21, 2014 4:38am Sep 21, 2014 4:38am
Quoting billytt
{quote} WELL SAID, I assume most people here realise that,
It is exactly because people don't realise this that I posted this warning about looking back on the monthly charts to see the profitability of this method.

Of course don't get me wrong, I am not saying that the method isn't profitable ... I am just saying that it must be backtested in the right way.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #43
  • Sep 21, 2014 4:52am Sep 21, 2014 4:52am
Quoting FerruFx
Interesting way of trading. Plenty of time to spend the earned pips! For those who are looking back on chart to see the profitability, remember that looking only at the monthly candles (that's the entry strategy) won't tell you if the TP or SL was hit first. Example we went Long ... we see that this past monthly candle has an upper wick higher than the 60 pips required for TP ... But that doesn't mean that the TP was reach. Keep in mind that within a month price goes up and down and in this case it may have hit the -100 pips down before reaching...
Good point FerruFx. This will generally (on any stratergy) be the case whenever the (pip) values of TP & SL are less than the average range of the monthly candles under consideration. However, there will be exceptions either way, beit certain wins or certain losers that can be read directly from the monthly chart. It's a good point nonetheless since backtesting would be done on the appropriate lower TF.
  • #44
  • Sep 21, 2014 4:55am Sep 21, 2014 4:55am
Quoting FerruFx
{quote} It is exactly because people don't realise this that I posted this warning about looking back on the monthly charts to see the profitability of this method. Of course don't get me wrong, I am not saying that the method isn't profitable ... I am just saying that it must be backtested in the right way.
well said again yawn (joke),,, I trade daily breakout and on paper it looks easy but it definitely isn't, lots of whipping before the gain and I can only assume it will be a lot worse on monthly candle, But it can be done
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #45
  • Sep 21, 2014 5:02am Sep 21, 2014 5:02am
we are looking at massive stop loss or no stop loss at all or retrace trading. some guys use 50% retrace before an entry or just enter after weekly gives a sign, keep it simple..
I say this to make the trade a better strike rate. be good all
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #46
  • Sep 21, 2014 5:15am Sep 21, 2014 5:15am
Quoting griffinssoul
However, there will be exceptions either way, beit certain wins or certain losers that can be read directly from the monthly chart.
There are only 2 cases (ie. BUY):

1/ If Open - Low < SL and High - Open >= TP ... That means that we have a sure TP here ... no need to check M1 chart

2/ If Open - Low >= SL and High - Open < TP ... That means that we have a sure SL here ... no need to check M1 chart
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #47
  • Sep 21, 2014 5:21am Sep 21, 2014 5:21am
Quoting FerruFx
{quote} There are only 2 cases (ie. BUY): 1/ If Open - Low < SL and High - Open >= TP ... That means that we have a sure TP here ... no need to check M1 chart 2/ If Open - Low >= SL and High - Open < TP ... That means that we have a sure SL here ... no need to check M1 chart
That's exactly correct FerruFx, (one for Buy and one for Sell). However, when back testing, perhaps algorithmically, there would be no need to refer to the monthly chart. This was just a point in hand.
  • #48
  • Sep 21, 2014 5:28am Sep 21, 2014 5:28am
Quoting griffinssoul
That's exactly correct FerruFx, (one for Buy and one for Sell).
No. The 2 situations i've described are for BUY ... You have the same 2 opposite situations for SELL.

Quoting griffinssoul
However, when back testing, perhaps algorithmically, there would be no need to refer to the monthly chart. This was just a point in hand.
That simple : at the start of each month on M1, drawn the TP/SL lines and see which one is hit first.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #49
  • Sep 21, 2014 5:32am Sep 21, 2014 5:32am
Quoting FerruFx
{quote} No. The 2 situations i've described are for BUY ... You have the same 2 opposite situations for SELL. {quote} That simple : at the start of each month on M1, drawn the TP/SL lines and see which one is hit first.
Please excuse me, I meant your conditions 1/ & 2/ for Buy and the associated ones for Sell. Well, that sounds like a great strategy Robinho has come up with and I'll eagerly be viewing results reported in this thread.
  • #50
  • Sep 21, 2014 5:32am Sep 21, 2014 5:32am
Quoting FerruFx
{quote} There are only 2 cases (ie. BUY): 1/ If Open - Low < SL and High - Open >= TP ... That means that we have a sure TP here ... no need to check M1 chart 2/ If Open - Low >= SL and High - Open < TP ... That means that we have a sure SL here ... no need to check M1 chart
Hi, FerruFx

That's exactly what I did (... at least trying) with my excel Sheet.

I confess I didn't get down to the minute but, when necessary, I went down to the Hour.

Furthermore I also did some math :
With a risk of 2% and trading 27 pairs : the breakeven is : 16 Winner & 9 Loser

What do you think about this ?

Regards

BBF

(C'est toujours avec grand plaisir et attention que je prends connaissance de vos interventions : Forex... & FootBall (LOL))
BigBlackfeet Always on the(forex) war path !
  • #51
  • Sep 21, 2014 6:20am Sep 21, 2014 6:20am
Quoting BLACKFEET
Furthermore I also did some math : With a risk of 2% and trading 27 pairs : the breakeven is : 16 Winner & 9 Loser What do you think about this ?
I doubt that you can use math to calculate the BE. 27 pairs doesn't mean that you will have 27 trades. Keep in mind that we are using here pending orders and in some case we may have few pairs going opposite without hitting the entry price ...

Quoting BLACKFEET
(C'est toujours avec grand plaisir et attention que je prends connaissance de vos interventions : Forex... & FootBall (LOL))


Je ne vois pas bien où j'ai participé à une discussion sur le football ... Forex, oui peut-être un peu !!!
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #52
  • Sep 21, 2014 8:50am Sep 21, 2014 8:50am
Quoting billytt
Even I said about having patience trading off a monthly chart. But look how many people are being negative about waiting to make money, It just shows our greed and want money now philosophy . read post FerruFx put in

Good morning friends (Brazil) I am an optimistic person, in everything I do in life, do not like pessimistic people. Life was made for living. But we go to the forex.

1 You can put the orders quietly in the early hours of the month. We know the market so slow estpa opens., Prercisamos not think of EA, but you want that place.

2nd Month of September as image results were 21 wins and 04 defeats. NZDJPY still pending and will include USDSGD, so 27 pairs. The result of August was 23 x 3 ...

3 The system is so simple that people are making ... We do not need much ... just 20 minutes a month ... There are people who want to stay looking the PC the whole month.

4 If you like managing peers, and wanting to get more pips, this is thing of each, as had entries that reached 500 + pips this month ... but I'm glad to win only 60 pips..mês that has come more.

5 See the results in the past. The price at the beginning of the month in most pairs remain following the last candle, many candles that close with different color at the end of m ~ es, change in the middle of the month, when we won our 60 pips TP, so to think in place of TP 10pips. Imagine earning 270 pips each month?

6 DO NOT NEED OF GREED, the market is there every day, months and years ... make planning for 03-05 years.
A hug to everyone, but do not forget ... always stay optimistic and not inventing. Will work 20 minutes per month, and will have more time for family, laser and other things.
  • #53
  • Sep 21, 2014 8:55am Sep 21, 2014 8:55am
Hi All,
Here is a mtf ma indicator which may help people.
With the shown settings you can see the monthly open line relative to the previous months.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mtf ma.jpg Size: 147 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdh1.png Size: 27 KB

Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 MTF_MovingAverage.ex4   8 KB | 637 downloads

Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 MTF_MovingAverage.mq4   3 KB | 748 downloads


Dave
  • #54
  • Sep 21, 2014 9:00am Sep 21, 2014 9:00am
I took the liberty to modify the spreadsheet kindly posted by Blackfeet and do a test on EURAUD and EURJPY. I used M5 as low TF to check the intraday results which looks trustful enough. Unfortunately on that TF my history doesnt go further back than April 24th so the test starts from May. If other people are lucky enough to have older data and have time to do it, and of course they want to check other pairs, they can input them in the colored cells and the spreadsheet will calculate entries, SL and TP automatically. Please take notice that normal pairs are tested in the upper table (5 decimals) while yen pairs need the lower table (3 decimals).
Although this SS makes things easier, it still takes some time to test. Once again I'd like to urge the skilled ones to make an EA. Backtest would be done in a short time on multiple pairs and placing trades on forward test would just take a whisper.
I can't believe no one has picked up this challenge yet...
Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx Robinho test.xlsx   12 KB | 930 downloads
  • #55
  • Sep 21, 2014 9:20am Sep 21, 2014 9:20am
Quoting Pharm0r
Interesting. I might try this in a separate account next month
Like I said, I have no problem picking this up- At the end of this month I will deposit a small amount of money into a separate live account with Oanda, and run a live TE with all options viewable.

obviously you guys will have to be just as patient, as I wont be updating anything until the end of each month.

I'm not sure I like the 100 pip risk for 60 pip profit- but we'll see.

I suspect UJ and EU will be the money makers on this.
  • #56
  • Sep 21, 2014 9:35am Sep 21, 2014 9:35am
Just did a quick test on gold (spreadsheet needed a little tweak) and thats the results I get. Probably commodities such as gold with violent reversals are not suitable for this system. But then again only 6 months can't be considered conclusive
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-09-21_16-30-17.jpg Size: 108 KB
  • #57
  • Sep 21, 2014 9:38am Sep 21, 2014 9:38am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Like I said, I have no problem picking this up-
Sorry for not being clear. I meant I'm surprised that no coder has picked this challenge up to make an EA yet
  • #58
  • Sep 21, 2014 9:43am Sep 21, 2014 9:43am
Quoting Hammertop
Just did a quick test on gold (spreadsheet needed a little tweak) and thats the results I get. Probably commodities such as gold with violent reversals are not suitable for this system. But then again only 6 months can't be considered conclusive {image}
Many thanks for the spreadsheet ... but I've done all the tests ... see it in the list of 27 pairs have not GOLD. EURGBP and EURCHF not ... Do not waste your time ... try the spreadsheet only 27 pairs of the case give ... sorry
  • #59
  • Sep 21, 2014 11:03am Sep 21, 2014 11:03am
Quoting Robinho
{quote} Many thanks for the spreadsheet ... but I've done all the tests ... see it in the list of 27 pairs have not GOLD. EURGBP and EURCHF not ... Do not waste your time ... try the spreadsheet only 27 pairs of the case give ... sorry
Do you have any other proof besides August?

What is your motivation for providing this trade signal?
  • #60
  • Sep 21, 2014 11:26am Sep 21, 2014 11:26am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Do you have any other proof besides August? What is your motivation for providing this trade signal?

I dare to say that the man is from Brasil there s a huge difference in the mentality... to the better of course, people there are still pure my friend.
Thank you Robinho God bless you
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