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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #14,621
  • Edited Sep 21, 2014 12:02am Sep 20, 2014 11:23pm | Edited Sep 21, 2014 12:02am
Those videos...what world these days....

sounds about right,,,...
but the pattern with the drop from hail...I have that as a great big ole A B C with a target up there at 187.xx as mentioned previously as a part of the extended wave three dealy.....having forsaid A B C's
So, notice the proportions and how they match typical A B C patterns that are associated with these 'super' extended wave three
  • #14,622
  • Sep 21, 2014 2:14am Sep 21, 2014 2:14am
180.6 has been a key level since at least 1996. Over there it's into the 184/6 area, and the next big resistance is about 195.

During its entire climb, though there have been only two breakout levels that have not been revisited. They are 134 and 159.2/5. With one possible exception, I don't think that 163 is overly important.

Does it at least retest one soon, or much later, or at all?

The next week will tell.
  • #14,623
  • Sep 21, 2014 6:21am Sep 21, 2014 6:21am
Like I've said before, it's probably going to need a boost from the central bank rate to move it back up. The value of the GBP was largely propped up in the past by high central bank rates. There is a strong correlation between high pound value, and high interest rates. The main reason why the GBP has moved up recently is due to Japan's aim to devalue the yen. If it's mostly influenced by yen rates right now, it'll likely sit in the 170-175 range until Kuroda comes out stating that they're implementing stronger yen devaluation. In which case it would raise the range to areas to somewhere between 172-180ish.

The pound needs a rock solid british fundamental move to really push it up to new heights. Until then, it'll likely be the same old range for the geppy.
  • #14,624
  • Sep 21, 2014 7:04am Sep 21, 2014 7:04am
Japanese export is in deficit, this:
http://fukushima-diary.com/2014/09/2...ssian-customs/
is only to get worse, but Japan will not admit that their export is shutting down due to fear, they will claim high yen is the cause, we will eventually see record low value of yen.
  • #14,625
  • Sep 21, 2014 3:21pm Sep 21, 2014 3:21pm
Quoting IndigoPingvi
Japanese export is in deficit, this: http://fukushima-diary.com/2014/09/2...ssian-customs/ is only to get worse, but Japan will not admit that their export is shutting down due to fear, they will claim high yen is the cause, we will eventually see record low value of yen.
I don't know if that is enough to cause a panic with exports. That's 53 cars that were not accepted. Japan exports tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of cars each year.

China's been exporting faulty motherboards and processors to the U.S. for years now, more specifically, to U.S. arms manufacturers. I don't see their exports or currency value taking a hit.

And the actual big problem Japan was facing, was the end of last week, when the GBP went bull. Since the geppy went bull so hard, it affected the yen and japanese business badly, since its value dropped very quickly. That last bull rush on the geppy caused bull rushes on basically every other yen pairing. A big shock like this in value is bad for them, as they want to gradually devalue the yen. A sudden shift like this is very bad for business. They're not just going to sit back and let it continue to drop this quickly.
  • #14,626
  • Sep 22, 2014 2:46am Sep 22, 2014 2:46am
Very Interesting ...I got a sell signal in Gbp/Usd but not in the Gbp/Jpy.
  • #14,627
  • Edited 4:00am Sep 22, 2014 3:47am | Edited 4:00am
It sits at the 23.6 retracement level for the entire move up. A classic indecision level. But over about 178.7 it probably returns to the top
  • #14,628
  • Edited 6:01am Sep 22, 2014 5:28am | Edited 6:01am
Quoting IveGotQuads
Very Interesting ...I got a sell signal in Gbp/Usd but not in the Gbp/Jpy.
Go figure. The G/J is going bull again. Trying to make heads or tails of this pair is probably turning my hair grey in the process. I'm seeing a bit of a trend on the 15m now. I'll just go with a small take with a larger lot size to kick off the trading week with a win.

edit: On second thought, maybe not. Just broke trend. Think I'm going to sit out until wednesday or something like that.
  • #14,629
  • Sep 22, 2014 6:42am Sep 22, 2014 6:42am
very quiet today. i'd go long only after it breaks 178.34. let's see
  • #14,630
  • Sep 22, 2014 4:33pm Sep 22, 2014 4:33pm
Just saw the tick chart go nuts for a minute on the sell number. Does that mean people are loading up shorts, and that there's a good chance it will go bearish?
  • #14,631
  • Sep 22, 2014 6:39pm Sep 22, 2014 6:39pm
yeah got in the short sell of Gbp/Usd but moved Sl to break even before US session. Will see what plan will take hold tomorrow...hopefully a chance to make some pips for the week.
  • #14,632
  • Sep 22, 2014 8:31pm Sep 22, 2014 8:31pm
Quoting IveGotQuads
yeah got in the short sell of Gbp/Usd but moved Sl to break even before US session. Will see what plan will take hold tomorrow...hopefully a chance to make some pips for the week.
That's looking like a good call. The G/U and E/U are both showing that they could dip down a little bit.

Also the spreads on the G/J have been pretty high so far this week. I'm usually averaging around 1.7, but now it's been anywhere from 2.2 to 3.2. Just going to sit out on that one until the banks have made enough money off spreads to warrant dropping the pair a bit.
  • #14,633
  • Sep 22, 2014 9:49pm Sep 22, 2014 9:49pm
Find a place to get long, quickly
  • #14,634
  • Sep 23, 2014 12:17am Sep 23, 2014 12:17am
Longs from 176 closed. Now reducing those from 174.5
  • #14,635
  • Edited 1:38am Sep 23, 2014 12:48am | Edited 1:38am
Quoting Gbp/jpy
Find a place to get long, quickly
Hmmm... not really seeing it. The trend has kind of flip flopped today. Have a position set at 178.02. And aiming for a short gain somewhere around 178.3.

This pair has just been bizarre this week. Indecisive is an understatement. Holding a long for longer than that is just, I don't know. It keeps on changing trends every few hours. It could go bull, and it could very well go bear too.

edit: Low and behold, it's gone slightly bear again. Eff this pairing. Wake me up when it finally has a meaningful bear drop. In the meantime, it's just banks trying to grab cash.
  • #14,636
  • Sep 23, 2014 1:12am Sep 23, 2014 1:12am
Quoting 4xNewGuy
{quote} Hmmm... not really seeing it. The trend has kind of flip flopped today. Have a position set at 178.02. And aiming for a short gain somewhere around 178.3. This pair has just been bizarre this week. Indecisive is an understatement.
At 1.638, GU is back at a point that could have a bearing on whether it rises or drops. UJ is looking a little corrective and GJ is stuck at this 'indecision' level.

If UJ and GU were both to fall, I thought I would be a little cautious and preserve what I have.
  • #14,637
  • Sep 23, 2014 1:24am Sep 23, 2014 1:24am
Quoting IveGotQuads
yeah got in the short sell of Gbp/Usd but moved Sl to break even before US session. Will see what plan will take hold tomorrow...hopefully a chance to make some pips for the week.
I was stopped out at break even yesterday during the US session with all those price movement. But it seems both pairs have a small consolidation range to them
  • #14,638
  • Sep 23, 2014 1:40am Sep 23, 2014 1:40am
Its crazy how Gbp/Usd is in a bearish trend and Gbp/Jpy is in a bullish trend but both going through retracements...for gbp/jpy I would love to sell but 177.47 is a zone to watch and unless I want to scalp this (which I don't) I just have to be patient or stay out for now
  • #14,639
  • Sep 23, 2014 2:41am Sep 23, 2014 2:41am
Damn Gbp/Usd confirmation came first and that's the one I took.... would prefer Gbp/Jpy but hey pips is pips.
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  • #14,640
  • Sep 23, 2014 3:24am Sep 23, 2014 3:24am
closed Gbp/Usd trade for 22+ on that reversal... markets acting weird this morning with Usd/yen, Gbp/yen & Gbp/Usd moving in tandem SMH
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