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The similarity system

  • #8,541
  • Sep 19, 2014 3:22am Sep 19, 2014 3:22am
Quoting elen21168
{quote} My first target is almost hit. If it is hit, may be it will retrace first, going up.
My first target is reached. Lets see, if it goes below 2862, i will sell again. If not, then i think it will retrace, going up. I will do a sell at the top later ....
Edit: if it goes up, i think it will reach 2917 - 2925. i will sell from there
  • #8,542
  • Sep 19, 2014 3:29am Sep 19, 2014 3:29am
Quoting hepsibah
{quote} Yes, it may now be longer term before it fixes the zone needed above 1.2910, I think it is being drawn towards 1.28726. However, as vlady knows, UK often reverses the EU move so we'll see. I will add a long at a touch above 1.2896 if we get there.
ok, so it's visited 1.28726 and could now go up. I still see the need for a TZ above 1.2910 but, if there is not a close above 1.29080 in the next 31min, this may not happen for a while.
  • #8,543
  • Sep 19, 2014 3:33am Sep 19, 2014 3:33am
Quoting hepsibah
{quote} ok, so it's visited 1.28726 and could now go up. I still see the need for a TZ above 1.2910 but, if there is not a close above 1.29080 in the next 31min, this may not happen for a while.
Great hepsibah. I have put a buy, SL 10 pips. Targeting around 2912-2917 (yes, i am learning not to be greedy, TP below the zone is ok for me ).
  • #8,544
  • Sep 19, 2014 3:34am Sep 19, 2014 3:34am
Quoting ephisi
{quote} a 1hr candle close above 1.2930 should confirm next strong bull wave which may complete eurusds reversal a 1hr candle close below 1.2894 should confirm the next weak bearish wave toward 1.2860, before next wave up again. Guys im not 100percent sure. just my analysis. price action has become crazy. one needs to be careful these days
so i was right this time, No one shouted crucify him. i guess i am doing something right. its sinking in, im currently trading with just TRZ no eurusdd template. but i plane to set all up this weekend. i see how the are usefull. but basicall what you need is TRZ and wave count

1.2860 is where i will start attempting a reversal towards 1.2908 area. I might be wrong this time learning
  • #8,545
  • Sep 19, 2014 3:34am Sep 19, 2014 3:34am
Quoting summicron
{quote} Thanks! All I know about TZ concept ... till now that is ... is left TZ and it's (rare) potential to become a full TZ.
My logic is still some what messy but its clearing. So taking the way you phrased this..one way is that since its only a 3% chance a TZ will actually become a real TZ then you have 97% chance of a revisit. That should give some levels to work thing out with which lead to the next question of when the revisit will be.

Using a 1 min chart and taking H to be 5 for example sake....once a potential TZ forms at say price 1.3000 then we can assume regardless of how price moves there is a 97% chance that price will be at 1.3000 again in the next H5 which is 5 mins
I want more brain power!
  • #8,546
  • Sep 19, 2014 3:36am Sep 19, 2014 3:36am
Quoting hepsibah
{quote} ok, so it's visited 1.28726 and could now go up. I still see the need for a TZ above 1.2910 but, if there is not a close above 1.29080 in the next 31min, this may not happen for a while.
im also long, willadd at 60 if we get it. I now understand why vlady kept adding new positions. doing that with small lots trying to catch the bottom
  • #8,547
  • Sep 19, 2014 3:40am Sep 19, 2014 3:40am
Locked in +20. Free ride...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,548
  • Sep 19, 2014 3:40am Sep 19, 2014 3:40am
Quoting ephisi
{quote} im also long, willadd at 60 if we get it. I now understand why vlady kept adding new positions. doing that with small lots trying to catch the bottom
will take quick profit on this one. i think she will dip spike down to 1.2960. where i will hold buy if i enter
  • #8,549
  • Sep 19, 2014 3:52am Sep 19, 2014 3:52am
Morning Folks!

I've turned on my scalper hat since last night. Won some lost some, but the general tone has been a bit confused.

The 4H rejected the Bollinger Mid 2935, but the rejection I think is only temporary... there's just something about the shape and timing. No reaction on Scottish Indep... it's moving to something else. The 1H... settled in roughly the same place before Yellen yesterday. Could be going for 56.

The 15M has been showing failed turns since Asia end and Frankfurt. That's not bearish at all, just no power..... well not until 9am London. So it's not the "normal" routine. Something gives and I can't find enough clues on news atm.

I'm looking to Long this pair on a clear signal from 1H and 15M combined.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #8,550
  • Sep 19, 2014 3:55am Sep 19, 2014 3:55am
Quoting hepsibah
{quote} ok, so it's visited 1.28726 and could now go up. I still see the need for a TZ above 1.2910 but, if there is not a close above 1.29080 in the next 31min, this may not happen for a while.
Mmm, is this a shakeout before the rise or a continuation down? If it closes under 1.29080 in the next 5min, I will have a buy and sell conflict on H4 so will probably be into a hedge. A touch above 1.28844 would be bullish for me.
  • #8,551
  • Sep 19, 2014 3:59am Sep 19, 2014 3:59am
Quoting ephisi
{quote} will take quick profit on this one. i think she will dip spike down to 1.2960. where i will hold buy if i enter
out at break even. no more longs. Today is a down day. 60 seems to be repeling price abit. But i believe we will hit 60 and maybe break lower. my bias for today is bearish.There is possibility of reaching 1.2833. looking for a good rally to sell
  • #8,552
  • Sep 19, 2014 4:06am Sep 19, 2014 4:06am
Quoting vlady1974
Morning Folks! I've turned on my scalper hat since last night. Won some lost some, but the general tone has been a bit confused. The 4H rejected the Bollinger Mid 2935, but the rejection I think is only temporary... there's just something about the shape and timing. No reaction on Scottish Indep... it's moving to something else. The 1H... settled in roughly the same place before Yellen yesterday. Could be going for 56. The 15M has been showing failed turns since Asia end and Frankfurt. That's not bearish at all, just no power..... well not until...
good morning mate. how are you coping scalping at work? yes scalping is the way forward.

but what i realized while researing last nite was that with eurusdds method you can actually pick the swing highs and lows. its only such trades that you can hold for 12 hours. eg the short signal at 1.2930. we shouldnt close above 1.2930 today. i waited for the swing high into the nite. but when i found i i scalped it and took profit thinking she would go higher. i was cross with myself. i was in at 1.2929 jest 2pips below high. But i now know how to pick the tops and bottoms.

based on that i dont think we will see a bottom till late us session where profit takers may make her rally abit
  • #8,553
  • Sep 19, 2014 4:09am Sep 19, 2014 4:09am
Quoting ephisi
{quote} good morning mate. how are you coping scalping at work? yes scalping is the way forward. but what i realized while researing last nite was that with eurusdds method you can actually pick the swing highs and lows. its only such trades that you can hold for 12 hours. eg the short signal at 1.2930. we shouldnt close above 1.2930 today. i waited for the swing high into the nite. but when i found i i scalped it and took profit thinking she would go higher. i was cross with myself. i was in at 1.2929 jest 2pips below high. But i now know how to...
im not perfect yet with the scalping. still tweaking. so i will only take swing high and swing low swing trades which i can hold for the day.

while i am practising scalping on demo. Getting better at it and creaing some high probability filters
  • #8,554
  • Sep 19, 2014 4:18am Sep 19, 2014 4:18am
Quoting elen21168
{quote} Great hepsibah. I have put a buy, SL 10 pips. Targeting around 2912-2917 (yes, i am learning not to be greedy, TP below the zone is ok for me ).
Here we go .... there is a strong zone around 2913-2917. My other zone is higher (some of them are overlapping). So, i think 2912-2917 is a good choice for TP.
  • #8,555
  • Sep 19, 2014 4:20am Sep 19, 2014 4:20am
Quoting elen21168
{quote} Here we go .... there is a strong zone around 2913-2917. My other zone is higher (some of them are overlapping). So, i think 2912-2917 is a good choice for TP.
yep, I'll be happy to tp at 1.2910 and then re-group
  • #8,556
  • Sep 19, 2014 4:24am Sep 19, 2014 4:24am
Quoting cfdtaleong
{quote} My logic is still some what messy but its clearing. So taking the way you phrased this..one way is that since its only a 3% chance a TZ will actually become a real TZ then you have 97% chance of a revisit. That should give some levels to work thing out with which lead to the next question of when the revisit will be. Using a 1 min chart and taking H to be 5 for example sake....once a potential TZ forms at say price 1.3000 then we can assume regardless of how price moves there is a 97% chance that price will be at 1.3000 again in the next...
Yea. Once we see a potential TZ we immediately assume it will become full TZ even if its rare at 3%. the odds the next bar is also a TZ, two TZ side by side, should be even rarer. So target price to revisit the 2nd bar, if so we win. If price go thru to potential TZ, the 1st bar, we win.
  • #8,557
  • Sep 19, 2014 4:29am Sep 19, 2014 4:29am
looking for short above 1.2888/94.
  • #8,558
  • Sep 19, 2014 4:30am Sep 19, 2014 4:30am
Quoting BlackStack
{quote} GBPAUD in 8 hours is more like 25 pips, not 250 pips
LOL what chart are you looking at?
forex?
from 5 to 10 o clock it moved 255.6
so it was less than 8 hours
sorry my mistake
  • #8,559
  • Sep 19, 2014 4:32am Sep 19, 2014 4:32am
Quoting ephisi
looking for short above 1.2888/94.
target 1.2830 and below. based on my analysis 1.2830ish is on the card. a break below 1.2830 will lead to 1.2750.

now i know when to switch betwwen scalping mode and swinging mode
  • #8,560
  • Sep 19, 2014 4:50am Sep 19, 2014 4:50am
Quoting ephisi
{quote} target 1.2830 and below. based on my analysis 1.2830ish is on the card. a break below 1.2830 will lead to 1.2750. now i know when to switch betwwen scalping mode and swinging mode
I agree that it is looking distinctly bearish. My problem is that we haven't had a top TZ to go down from and I think caution is needed on shorts until that forms. A close below 1.28726 on M15 or higher tf will definitely have me short but I'll still be holding my longs as I have something from eurusdd's charts last w/e that makes me think it unlikely it will go further than 40-50 pips away from 1.2910 before returning. And if we hit that, we may be going onto 1.2962.
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