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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #14,601
  • Sep 18, 2014 10:01pm Sep 18, 2014 10:01pm
Quoting Mpt
The No vote got up. Now it feels like the end of an intervention (which I suspect might have been partly the case). No one believes it will drop - and few have the courage to short.
What's your prediction?
  • #14,602
  • Sep 18, 2014 10:11pm Sep 18, 2014 10:11pm
Quoting Mpt
The No vote got up. Now it feels like the end of an intervention (which I suspect might have been partly the case). No one believes it will drop - and few have the courage to short.

So you're feeling that it'll be bullish from the current price (179.6)? And sorry-what do you mean by "intervention"?
  • #14,603
  • Sep 18, 2014 10:19pm Sep 18, 2014 10:19pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} So you're feeling that it'll be bullish from the current price (179.6)?

No, I think a retrace is under way. The thing was partly held up, I suspect, by certain central banks in an effort to remove any major price shocks. Now the event has passed, they'll take their fingers off the buy button. How far it goes is anybody's guess.
  • #14,604
  • Sep 18, 2014 10:36pm Sep 18, 2014 10:36pm
Quoting Mpt
{quote} No, I think a retrace is under way. The thing was partly held up, I suspect, by certain central banks in an effort to remove any major price shocks. Now the event has passed, they'll take their fingers off the buy button. How far it goes is anybody's guess.
I agree, I think intraday retrace can easily go to 177.9 area today...
  • #14,605
  • Edited 11:27pm Sep 18, 2014 11:10pm | Edited 11:27pm
Quoting Mpt
{quote} No, I think a retrace is under way. The thing was partly held up, I suspect, by certain central banks in an effort to remove any major price shocks. Now the event has passed, they'll take their fingers off the buy button. How far it goes is anybody's guess.
That's what I'm thinking too. This 2 week bull charge was likely done to help counteract any kind of yes vote. Some institutions were saying the pound would drop 10% if scotland gained independence. If it's at say 180, a 10% cut would drop it to 162. Not too bad. But if it were sitting at 170 when it happens, that pulls it down to 153. Which leaves a much larger mountain to climb. As far as how low can it go? I'd say somewhere around 172.00. It's where it ended (and was starting to go bullish after a few days of bear droppings) on the daily back on the 5th.

I don't really think we'll see too much out of the rest of this week. Next week is probably when some drops are going to happen.

As for the pair at the moment, seems it's going bearish, slowly. On the 15m, a wedge seems to be forming, with a descending resistance starting on the bear candle at 180.620, and support solid at 179.420. It's probably just going to move up and down in that zone for hours before dropping further, unless a bank decides it wants to change that when London and New York sessions open up.

Going to scalp some longs when it taps 179.420, and put in a short if it hits resistance and just leave that with an open TP.

I do have to admit, two nights ago, when I just said "screw it", and opened some longs and just left them open, it paid off big time for me. When I realized this was going nowhere but up, I took probably 300 pips. It has been one of those weird scenarios, when things like price action and indicators didn't really mean too much.

One and a half months in forex now, and forgetting almost everything I learned paid off for a couple of days. This market is freaking bizarre.
  • #14,606
  • Sep 18, 2014 11:13pm Sep 18, 2014 11:13pm
Quoting freundr
Not to distract from the main focus of the thread, but are other people seeing a HUGE spread on this pair for the last 2 days ? I have been at 4-8 pips when usually it runs 2.2 to 2.9 pips.
I was seeing some of that yesterday for sure. Mine's usually around 1.7, but there were times when it was 3-4 pips. Banks wanted their money for sure.
  • #14,607
  • Edited Sep 19, 2014 12:08am Sep 18, 2014 11:54pm | Edited Sep 19, 2014 12:08am
Should it reclaim 180.6 soon though, it may start to rise in the form of a rising wedge. As in 181/2 then fallback 183 /fallback, etc up into 184/5. Or simply, it could already be entering a deep correction from here. I've reduced my highest long from 176, but will wait to see if 180.6 is taken out.
  • #14,608
  • Edited 12:25am Sep 19, 2014 12:08am | Edited 12:25am
Quoting Mpt
Should it reclaim 180.6 soon though, it may start to rise in the form of a rising wedge.
It might, this is what I'm currently seeing. 180.6 is still within that range so it would probably be a decent area to short from.

edit: Sorry, I thought you said 180.06. My bad!
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  • #14,609
  • Sep 19, 2014 1:40am Sep 19, 2014 1:40am
Yup, going bearish now. Broke that trend and is sitting at 178.900. I don't think the NY session will disagree with this movement. Time to bring the geppy back down to earth.
  • #14,610
  • Sep 19, 2014 1:48am Sep 19, 2014 1:48am
Quoting Mpt
Should it reclaim 180.6 soon though, it may start to rise in the form of a rising wedge. As in 181/2 then fallback 183 /fallback, etc up into 184/5. Or simply, it could already be entering a deep correction from here. I've reduced my highest long from 176, but will wait to see if 180.6 is taken out.
It could possibly be a fresh setup to buy GBP - given referndum.
  • #14,611
  • Sep 19, 2014 4:09am Sep 19, 2014 4:09am
Quoting Didgeridoo
{quote} It could possibly be a fresh setup to buy GBP - given referndum.
It's already down 200 pips from the peak of its movement. The whole bull rush was there to help protect the pound in case the scottish achieved independence. If they got that, a lot of places were saying the pound would drop 10%. Now that the whole issue is dealt with (although videos are surfacing regarding possible voting fraud now), it's going to come back down to earth.

The geppy won't get a big boost until Carney increases the interest rate. Most of this move was pure sentiment, there were no fundamentals backing up the move.
  • #14,612
  • Sep 19, 2014 8:40am Sep 19, 2014 8:40am
Quoting IndigoPingvi
{quote} I agree, I think intraday retrace can easily go to 177.9 area today...
That happened fast... Next week possible 175.3 area to test Pivot zone, then continuation North.
  • #14,613
  • Sep 19, 2014 8:44am Sep 19, 2014 8:44am
what is the deal now? she gonna tank down back down or forever go up
  • #14,614
  • Sep 19, 2014 1:06pm Sep 19, 2014 1:06pm
Quoting SnaveForex
what is the deal now? she gonna tank down back down or forever go up
If you have a short open, hold on to it for a few days IMO. Now the normal rules are going to apply to this pair again. The 4h/8h/daily/weekly/monthly charts are showing plenty of overbought. The New York session has been very flat. If it were going to show signs of going bull again, we probably would've seen at least something out of that session.

It's due for a big correction after the 2 week bull rush to protect its value.
  • #14,615
  • Sep 19, 2014 1:50pm Sep 19, 2014 1:50pm
Hey you dere... ua pusha da buy button....big up move on Sunday, men.....
  • #14,616
  • Sep 19, 2014 2:06pm Sep 19, 2014 2:06pm
Quoting Gbp/jpy
Hey you dere... ua pusha da buy button....big up move on Sunday, men.....
Why up move ?

Descending triangle ?
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  • #14,617
  • Edited Sep 20, 2014 12:58am Sep 19, 2014 5:45pm | Edited Sep 20, 2014 12:58am
It now depends on whether it can hold up at about 176.3/5. If it rises from there, or in any case holds over about 175, it's probably still bullish, to at least 184/5 on the next pass.

But should it drop further and finds itself below about 170.5, it enhances the possibility of being in an old GJ favourite - the expanding triangle - that ends up completing way down around 159. In that case, after it heads up again, and, curiously, gets back over 177.6 and 180.5, the 180s would a minor distraction in the steep and rapid climb to at least the mid 190's.
  • #14,618
  • Sep 19, 2014 6:57pm Sep 19, 2014 6:57pm
Yes, that call is just a historical probability.......not really technical, but I'm a Chart Hacker......not too tech......but my system demolishes the Asian and London sessions.

So there's 7 trades with different strats......and different stops for the buy.....2 are entry orders.....
  • #14,619
  • Sep 20, 2014 6:35am Sep 20, 2014 6:35am
The GBP sold of because the market had anticipate a no vote, hence trade the expectation sell the fact. As a lot of other people said, it was also protected by the banks in case of a run on the pound.

My expectations are that the GBPJPY will retrace up and we can expect a sell around the 22.Sep.2014

http://screencast.com/t/xtqn6Qb1VFm

the link will also show price levels i am looking for a short set up.
  • #14,620
  • Sep 20, 2014 9:51am Sep 20, 2014 9:51am
Have you seen this shit?? This 'might' have some consequences eventually:
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