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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #14,581
  • Sep 18, 2014 8:30pm Sep 18, 2014 8:30pm
With only two electorate votes in it looks like the no's have it fairly solidly. The only question remaining will be how long will it take before the big boys start selling the fact.
Enter Signature
  • #14,582
  • Sep 18, 2014 8:37pm Sep 18, 2014 8:37pm
Quoting IndigoPingvi
{quote} At this point 178.3 is (for the intraday) very overbought. Possible good entry for short.
I wrote that when it was approaching 175. It just broke 179.1 resistance and once it clears 180.5, next up should 182, then 184, then 185. It might stop there.
  • #14,583
  • Sep 18, 2014 8:44pm Sep 18, 2014 8:44pm
Quoting Sarythsaya
All my momentum indicators say this is totally overbought and a definite sell. Wow this looks like the perfect trade!!!
Agreed, but at what point do you want to short this out of control train ?
  • #14,584
  • Sep 18, 2014 8:47pm Sep 18, 2014 8:47pm
The area here around 180.5 is a big deal, but in the event it breaks, it should accelerate again.
  • #14,585
  • Sep 18, 2014 8:50pm Sep 18, 2014 8:50pm
Well, it almost reached 180.725 before dawdling around at 180.5. IF there is a short selling going on, when to you think the shorting will stop?
  • #14,586
  • Sep 18, 2014 8:59pm Sep 18, 2014 8:59pm
Quoting Vermillion
Well, it almost reached 180.725 before dawdling around at 180.5. IF there is a short selling going on, when to you think the shorting will stop?
Supports today are at about 177, 176 and 173.5. But in the event of any huge sell, they probably wouldn't work. Some years back, this thing dropped 900 pips in an hour.
  • #14,587
  • Sep 18, 2014 9:01pm Sep 18, 2014 9:01pm
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Supports today are at about 177, 176 and 173.5. But in the event of any huge sell, they probably wouldn't work. Some years back, this thing dropped 900 pips in an hour.

So basically we're on our own, along with our own personal SL/TP. Great.

I'm sort of hoping it dips down to 180....and then right as I write this, it happend o.o
  • #14,588
  • Sep 18, 2014 9:02pm Sep 18, 2014 9:02pm
i still remember that evening when it droped 900 pips in couple of hours. i think it was 2009

Quoting Mpt
{quote} Supports today are at about 177, 176 and 173.5. But in the event of any huge sell, they probably wouldn't work. Some years back, this thing dropped 900 pips in an hour.
  • #14,589
  • Sep 18, 2014 9:05pm Sep 18, 2014 9:05pm
Quoting ssaqeel
i still remember that evening when it droped 900 pips in couple of hours. i think it was 2009 {quote}
....'the hell happened on that day? What, did several major UK conglomerates go bankrupt?
  • #14,590
  • Sep 18, 2014 9:09pm Sep 18, 2014 9:09pm
Market is temporarily stalling around 180.1 Would it be considered suicidal to do a small long (say 0.4-0.5 lots) around this point? My fingers are feeling itchy from the 178 to 180 gain, so there's some leverage there
  • #14,591
  • Sep 18, 2014 9:15pm Sep 18, 2014 9:15pm
Someone just took advantage of low liquidity in the day roll over. The Japanese were pissed off and managed to get a number of central banks to help take it back up over a couple of weeks to 140. I lost a lot of money that day - it happened just after I woke up, and I was drunk by 8am. A long time ago now.
  • #14,592
  • Sep 18, 2014 9:22pm Sep 18, 2014 9:22pm
Quoting Mpt
Someone just took advantage of low liquidity in the day roll over. The Japanese were pissed off and managed to get a number of central banks to help take it back up over a couple of weeks to 140. I lost a lot of money that day - it happened just after I woke up, and I was drunk by 8am. A long time ago now.
Good old days? I went long @180.160 SL 179.500 Good luck everyone!
  • #14,593
  • Sep 18, 2014 9:40pm Sep 18, 2014 9:40pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} So basically we're on our own, along with our own personal SL/TP. Great. I'm sort of hoping it dips down to 180....and then right as I write this, it happend o.o
OK, let's pretend that the arse falls out of it TODAY - or Monday - somewhere between 166.2 and 165.2 would be my best guess. Don't forget, we are just playing pretend.
  • #14,594
  • Sep 18, 2014 9:56pm Sep 18, 2014 9:56pm
Not to distract from the main focus of the thread, but are other people seeing a HUGE spread on this pair for the last 2 days ? I have been at 4-8 pips when usually it runs 2.2 to 2.9 pips.
  • #14,595
  • Sep 18, 2014 10:48pm Sep 18, 2014 10:48pm
Quoting Mpt
{quote} OK, let's pretend that the arse falls out of it TODAY - or Monday - somewhere between 166.2 and 165.2 would be my best guess. Don't forget, we are just playing pretend.
  • #14,596
  • Sep 18, 2014 11:10pm Sep 18, 2014 11:10pm
I remember buying this @ 173.17 and taking a 100 pip profit thinking that was the best trade of the week.... boy was I in for a sick ride. When I sold @ 175.10 after the "good news" didn't send it up @ that major resistance I lost 20 or so pips and I had placed a buy order after my stop loss since a failed sell order is a buy signal after-all. I just took removed my order @ 175.30 I don't know why...guess I had exposure to Gbz/Nzd in my other account. Im beginning to think having 2 accounts might be a failed strategy and I should just consolidate them both and focus, Diversification is for huge accounts not for a couple of thousand dollars. Thoughts thoughts !!!
  • #14,597
  • Sep 18, 2014 11:15pm Sep 18, 2014 11:15pm
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Supports today are at about 177, 176 and 173.5. But in the event of any huge sell, they probably wouldn't work. Some years back, this thing dropped 900 pips in an hour.

900 pips a day ...was that like 2008 or so during the recession thing with lehman bros and co ?
  • #14,598
  • Sep 18, 2014 11:17pm Sep 18, 2014 11:17pm
Quoting IveGotQuads
{quote} 900 pips a day ...was that like 2008 or so during the recession thing with lehman bros and co ?
No, the "great spike" of March 2011. It was all over and done with in about an hour and the last 500 or so in about 5 minutes
  • #14,599
  • Sep 18, 2014 11:42pm Sep 18, 2014 11:42pm
There's only one question I'm asking myself right now: would the expected no announcement of the referendum (in around next or hour or so) lead to increases in prices? OR will it immediately start a massive short selling of the GBP to revert it back to pre-referendum norms?

I've managed to get a few shorts in as I held my longs, and I think there's still room for an improvement by a few dozen or maybe even a hundred pips.

The problem of course, is that looking based on the graph itself shows that the 180 line is very much inflated and temporary-you need only look at the daily charts to see the issue.

Any guesses?
  • #14,600
  • Sep 18, 2014 11:50pm Sep 18, 2014 11:50pm
The No vote got up.

Now it feels like the end of an intervention (which I suspect might have been partly the case). No one believes it will drop - and few have the courage to short.
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