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Elliott Wave Trading

  • #6,961
  • Edited 10:20am Sep 14, 2014 12:30am | Edited 10:20am
It is important where one starts a wave count. And when an impulse wave is in progress, apply alternation and use channeling to double check.
Correctly marked channel lines is so useful in EW that it does not only confirm wave counts, it also provide target zones for retracement.
Present USDJPY is a good example of that, with wave count intact aiming for a possible target of 0-(iii) x 161%.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH1 18.png Size: 49 KB
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #6,962
  • Sep 17, 2014 11:40pm Sep 17, 2014 11:40pm
The full wave count of an impulse wave down NZDUSD from 10th July high is still intact with TP cluster under 0.7828.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSDH1 18.png Size: 52 KB
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #6,963
  • Sep 18, 2014 3:28am Sep 18, 2014 3:28am
Minor wave count of last two days in USDJPY suggest even more upside price action.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH1 20.png Size: 47 KB
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #6,964
  • Sep 18, 2014 4:05am Sep 18, 2014 4:05am
Quoting skyhok
Minor wave count of last two days in USDJPY suggest even more upside price action. {image}
Just so I can understand the implication, if this is an extended Wave (5) then from where did Wave (1) begin?
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #6,965
  • Edited 4:41am Sep 18, 2014 4:21am | Edited 4:41am
Quoting Ian Copsey
{quote} Just so I can understand the implication, if this is an extended Wave (5) then from where did Wave (1) begin?
Referring to the two previous posted USDJPY charts, this impulse wave wave [i] with an extended 5th wave starts from 8th Aug 101.50, if that's what you are talking about or are you talking about the longer term (1)? ok for that I have to organise a longer term chart and post later.
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #6,966
  • Sep 18, 2014 4:45am Sep 18, 2014 4:45am
Quoting skyhok
{quote} Referring to the two previous posted USDJPY charts, this impulse wave wave [i] with an extended 5th wave starts from 8th Aug 101.50, if that's what you are talking about or are you talking about the longer term (1)? ok for that I have to organise a longer term chart and post later.
Yes, I want to know where the Wave (1) started and Wave (3) ended... I'm just a bit confused with your Wave (4) being where it is in a traditional EW basis...
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #6,967
  • Sep 18, 2014 5:16am Sep 18, 2014 5:16am
Quoting Ian Copsey
{quote} Yes, I want to know where the Wave (1) started and Wave (3) ended... I'm just a bit confused with your Wave (4) being where it is in a traditional EW basis...
Thank you for your interest, this is where the benefit of long term EW analysis helps in setting road maps for present day trading.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYDaily 22.png Size: 53 KB
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #6,968
  • Sep 18, 2014 6:21am Sep 18, 2014 6:21am
Quoting skyhok
{quote} Thank you for your interest, this is where the benefit of long term EW analysis helps in setting road maps for present day trading. {image}
So this is whole move from the Wave 4 is an extended Wave 5? That'll be a projection of 400% to the target your suggesting?
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #6,969
  • Sep 18, 2014 7:06am Sep 18, 2014 7:06am
Quoting skyhok
{quote} Thank you for your interest, this is where the benefit of long term EW analysis helps in setting road maps for present day trading. {image}
Another few questions, if I may...

When were you able to forecast where the end of the 5-wave move will end?
When were you able to forecast that the Wave (b) (following the Wave (a) low following the Wave (3) ) would be higher and where it would stall?
May I ask how a Wave (c) following a Wave (a) and (b) would develop as a triangle and not a 5-wave move?
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #6,970
  • Sep 18, 2014 8:27am Sep 18, 2014 8:27am
His count is one of the possible several hundreds variations. (But not wrong in EW wise). That's why classic EW is one of the quickest way to sweep an account. (I tested ) Problem is not traders, problem is rules. Having only three rules make it always work (but only after all movements ended) but do not make it to predict future price development.
  • #6,971
  • Sep 18, 2014 8:27am Sep 18, 2014 8:27am
Quoting Ian Copsey
{quote} Another few questions, if I may... When were you able to forecast where the end of the 5-wave move will end? When were you able to forecast that the Wave (b) (following the Wave (a) low following the Wave (3) ) would be higher and where it would stall? May I ask how a Wave (c) following a Wave (a) and (b) would develop as a triangle and not a 5-wave move?
1. When were you able to forecast where the end of the 5-wave move will end?

When it is sure wave 3 is complete and wave 4 is in progress, one can apply Fib extension ratio for wave 5:
0-3 x161% from the top of wave 3. This is one of the most probable Fib relationship for 5th wave.
Neely MEW p.5-12, 8-26.

2. When were you able to forecast that the Wave (b) (following the Wave (a) low following the Wave (3) ) would be higher and where it would stall?

Usually in a trending market where a running correction would likely take place, and/or Hennessy's New EW rules would suggest these running corrections take place in wave C and in 5th waves only.
I can forecast wave b to be higher when it develops into a zigzag. It is when the x wave of this zigzag is forming then I would say there will be a wave y (equal to wave w) coming. Thus this zigzag completes wave b.

3. May I ask how a Wave (c) following a Wave (a) and (b) would develop as a triangle and not a 5-wave move?

Wave c are always in 5 waves, either in impulse wave or ending diagonal.
Although ending diagonals are numbered the same way as triangles, they are often misunderstood being the same. In fact, all corrections ends with a wave C, mostly a 5 waves Ending Diagonal, then comes the beginning of the next trending wave of the same degree. Therefore it is important to know where, when and how an Ending Diagonal finish.
Neely MEW covers extensively on the nature of Ending Diagonal, the types, configurations, size of each legs, short wave e or extended wave e, etc.. Neely called these ending diagonals as Terminal Impulse. Neely p. 11-6, 5-14, 10-10.
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #6,972
  • Sep 18, 2014 8:47am Sep 18, 2014 8:47am
Quoting Ian Copsey
{quote} So this is whole move from the Wave 4 is an extended Wave 5? That'll be a projection of 400% to the target your suggesting?
Not sure about your question. 400% of what?
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #6,973
  • Sep 18, 2014 9:49am Sep 18, 2014 9:49am
Quoting skyhok
{quote} Not sure about your question. 400% of what?
Well, you didn't start the count from the 75.57 low but from the correction following the first major peak - and you labeled it Wave 4... and therefore, since you were counting a 5-wave move from that corrective low that this must be a massive extended fifth wave that - from the target you suggested implied something like a 400% projection of that first rally.

I hadn't realised that you use a combination of R.N. Elliott's impulsive structure, with New EW and Neely's... easy to make up lots with that!

Below was when I first forecast the rally and target - although the first target was hit we are still moving higher in the second. I think you'll find (I hope at least!) that today's high will see a deeper correction. (Excuse the typos - the day when I prepare that report is always a horrid day of around 14 hours...)

The next image is from my next book and shows the 5-wave rally in USDJPY in the above forecast. You'll note the long, long and deep Wave (ii) and the mini Wave (iv) reflecting alternation in both depth and complexity. So as you can see, we're in Wave (C) now...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY101prediction_zps3444a49e.jpg Size: 64 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Fig4-19WaveivrelationshiptoWaveiiinarallyinUSDJPY_zps12c3ddbe.png Size: 201 KB
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #6,974
  • Sep 18, 2014 10:24am Sep 18, 2014 10:24am
Quoting Almondeyed
His count is one of the possible several hundreds variations. (But not wrong in EW wise). That's why classic EW is one of the quickest way to sweep an account. (I tested ) Problem is not traders, problem is rules. Having only three rules make it always work (but only after all movements ended) but do not make it to predict future price development.
I agree and why I had to look at some other solution because it ends up having to make these (what I call) weird counts that can only be counted retrospectively. The vast majority of traders these days try and work with these but it basically makes traditional EW a joke. It's a shame because there are two generations of Elliotticians who have grown up with this and while they try and work with what they have, it just doesn't work... It's not their fault - it's what they've been given to work with - and as you know, I just think it was down to a simple (and understandable) misjudgment by R.N. He researched his theory in the late 1920's, I'm not sure whether he had access to even hourly charts but even if he did, his ability to look deeply at where the wave relationships lie was handicapped by the fact he had to work everything out longhand... Now, take a spreadsheet and life become easier...

All these "weird" running corrections are all a factor of the wrong impulsive structure so I can understand why it's done, but it just makes things worse...
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #6,975
  • Sep 18, 2014 10:32am Sep 18, 2014 10:32am
Quoting fxwilder
What is the accuracy of this system. I'd. Like actual experiences from members over at least a years period of time. Thanks
Harmonic Elliott Wave is NOT a system. I am VERY adamant about that - and why I'm writing my current book. Harmonic Elliott Wave is a price indicator and has multiple projection targets, can be complicated by noise and open to misjudgment. It is a methodology that MUST be accompanied by a rigorous group of complimentary indicators that can provide different information about price. This is therefore down to the analyst's knowledge and understanding. It is vital that the methodology is understood because HEW holds a great number of logical features and unless these are understood it will not be as effective. You also need to be a dedicated nerd! It's hard work and needs a lot of attention to detail.

However, when compared to traditional Elliott Wave ... well, there is no comparison. Ever since I discovered the true structure my hit ratio has multiplied tremendously. Yes, I still make mistakes/misjudgments, but overall once the logic of the structure is understood it begins to talk to you...
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #6,976
  • Edited 11:51am Sep 18, 2014 11:40am | Edited 11:51am
Quoting Ian Copsey
{quote} Well, you didn't start the count from the 75.57 low but from the correction following the first major peak - and you labeled it Wave 4... and therefore, since you were counting a 5-wave move from that corrective low that this must be a massive extended fifth wave that - from the target you suggested implied something like a 400% projection of that first rally. I hadn't realised that you use a combination of R.N. Elliott's impulsive structure, with New EW and Neely's... easy to make up lots with that! Below was when I first forecast the...
Wow, take it easy Ian, I tried answering your questions objectively.
Not all EW schools are perfect, yes I use methods from different schools and find them working very well in forecasting and also in trading. They rather fill in the missing links. I don't see any Status Quo in sticking to one particular EW school.
Sorry that I didn't find your method useful for reasons I won't mention here, because you have to sell your method here that you have invented. I'll leave it at that.
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #6,977
  • Sep 18, 2014 11:58am Sep 18, 2014 11:58am
Quoting Ian Copsey
{quote} Another few questions, if I may... When were you able to forecast where the end of the 5-wave move will end? When were you able to forecast that the Wave (b) (following the Wave (a) low following the Wave (3) ) would be higher and where it would stall? May I ask how a Wave (c) following a Wave (a) and (b) would develop as a triangle and not a 5-wave move?

Hi Ian,


hope you are well.

Since the Elliott wave threads are populated now by folks


a) having defined their own rules

b) using different approaches of EW without stating clearly which one they are using (traditional, HEW, OEW, Neely, Hennessy etc.)

c) not knowing the rules and guidelines at all

d) mixing all the different approaches


etc.


I simply stay away, because I feel like in mad-house when visiting the EW-threads


Is it asked too much, if one creates for every different approach an own thread?

Some years ago the EW threads here were fine, but now they are almost useless. Sorry to say......
  • #6,978
  • Sep 18, 2014 12:27pm Sep 18, 2014 12:27pm
Quoting fxwilder
What is the accuracy of this system. I'd. Like actual experiences from members over at least a years period of time. Thanks
I subscribed both HEW and EWI (Elliott Wave International). I had many loosing trades and many winning trades as well. But as Ian mentioned, EW is not a trading system. It is a technical analysis tool like many other. Some times I tried to trade on the direction of corrections or sometimes wrong counts caused loosing trades. Good analysis does not mean good trading results. Managing a trade and analysing a market are very different professions.

Classic EW (There are some service providers which offer wave counts of some markets. Most famous is Elliott Wave International. They have sometimes good calls but what i see in their good calls are not directly inspired from EW. Some chart patters which are also used in EW terminology used very well by some eliottocians like Triangles (=Wave 4 or Wave B in EW), Wedges (=Leading & Ending Diagonals in EW), Momentun & Divergence in Wave 5 etc. I was following them closely in 2010 and 2011. They were very bearish and expecting big bear market at that time in their counts and calls for US Stock Exchange Markets. But US stocks are like a rocket still going up and up.

Few weeks ago just after stock market drop after Ukraine crisis with Russia i saw a post in my email with a link to a free article in EWI web site. They claim that actually we are in a bear market in SP500 until from 2010 or 2011 (i do not remember well but they claim we have expanded wave B that's why we saw higher high currently ). After the recovery and new highs came i wanted to check that article again but it was not there. It is was removed.

What i see in HEW is; Ian uses HEW principles along with chart patterns, momentum, cycles and some other tools. He sometimes changes labeling as price moves. But in general much more consistent than classic EW annalists especially turning points of the waves because in HEW Wave 4 & Wave 5 predictions are very consistent. Personally I saw wrong predictions but never saw deleted or disappearing posts.

Without a systematic approach to trading HEW or any other tool do not help a trader. I personally do not give trading decisions based on HEW but it is very helpful to determine SL and TP levels for me. But it is of course can be used to be the core of a trading system.
  • #6,979
  • Sep 18, 2014 10:14pm Sep 18, 2014 10:14pm
Quoting skyhok
{quote} Wow, take it easy Ian, I tried answering your questions objectively. Not all EW schools are perfect, yes I use methods from different schools and find them working very well in forecasting and also in trading. They rather fill in the missing links. I don't see any Status Quo in sticking to one particular EW school. Sorry that I didn't find your method useful for reasons I won't mention here, because you have to sell your method here that you have invented. I'll leave it at that.
Apologies, I was not trying to be awkward but trying to work out how this could be used effectively. From my perspective, having provided a forecasting service for over 10 years, I know I'd have no clients if I couldn't provide a more structured approach in which I had a higher degree of successful targets that are hit. Retrospective is just not good enough. There's still room for different projection targets so it's not 100% accurate (well, HEW is but I'm not...)

I also know that many can't work with HEW because it requires so much attention to detail. What I find most is that traders like to trade and not delve deeply into the small details - and normally that means they don't confirm the lower degree waves are developing in a valid structure while they can force the ratios to work in the (say) hourly chart. Often they only want to use the swing highs and swing lows - and that's a mistake too. However, being an analyst - that is what I try and achieve all the time to the best of my ability. I didn't "invent" HEW but observed where the wave relationships lay. When you see the impact of alternation in my terms it is absolutely incredible. It stuns me all the time.

For me - being able to forecast targets with relatively high accuracy, identify when I've got things wrong and being able to know where some moves will move to with certainty because of the nature of the structure - provides me with much more confidence in my analysis.

Yes, USDJPY has broken higher - another mini Wave [b] it seems but it'll go higher than you think... The GBPUSD decline was corrective and will make new highs - with one caveat - that if we get a deeper correction now to satisfy some alternative bearish impulse wave then it can move lower. So far it's developing well on the upside...

Again, my apologies. I do not intend to be awkward but want to understand how your methodology works... and I still can't see that.
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #6,980
  • Sep 18, 2014 10:14pm Sep 18, 2014 10:14pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Ian, hope you are well. Since the Elliott wave threads are populated now by folks a) having defined their own rules b) using different approaches of EW without stating clearly which one they are using (traditional, HEW, OEW, Neely, Hennessy etc.) c) not knowing the rules and guidelines at all d) mixing all the different approaches etc. I simply stay away, because I feel like in mad-house when visiting the EW-threads Is it asked too much, if one creates for every different approach an own thread? Some years ago the EW threads here were...
A sweeping generalization of forum members who posted here in this thread as if being in a mad-house, is such a subjective view that they have to be in a particular EW school and profess in knowing all guidelines and rules before they can post in this thread, otherwise they have to find somewhere else to post - is such a ridiculous and exclusive statement, that I think you are trying to make up your own rules for this thread and forum.

Don't forget one of the purpose of this forum or another other forum is to share and learn freely from each other, whose knowledge levels are relative and different.
What you have suggested is that beginners and intermediate EW learners should not post in this thread. Who are you?

Just like to ask how often do you post in this thread?
when was the last time you posted a chart with an EW count?
Do you know all the EW rules and guidelines?
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
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