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  • #4,841
  • Sep 17, 2014 6:41pm Sep 17, 2014 6:41pm
Quoting The Fool
Hi Cecil, gold will fall as the USD ascends I suppose, but there's a temporary floor somewhere, $1,200 maybe. What do you think YHOO might do on the BABA sales come Friday? Do you think a Scottish "No" is a foregone conclusion?
Yes I think Gold will fall too but I'm just playing for temporary spikes maybe 1210 or so, Yahoo could spike on Babas first day but IV is so damn high you could find yourself in a IV crush and for Scotland I just don't know
  • #4,842
  • Sep 17, 2014 6:44pm Sep 17, 2014 6:44pm
UNG looks a good buy, 21.87 closing price today and we're heading for colder darker days
  • #4,843
  • Sep 17, 2014 6:48pm Sep 17, 2014 6:48pm
Quoting The Fool
Hi Cecil, gold will fall as the USD ascends I suppose, but there's a temporary floor somewhere, $1,200 maybe. What do you think YHOO might do on the BABA sales come Friday? Do you think a Scottish "No" is a foregone conclusion?
looking for a temporary pull back on the Dollar from anywhere here 84.75- 85.05
  • #4,844
  • Edited 7:32pm Sep 17, 2014 7:01pm | Edited 7:32pm
Quoting The Fool
Do you think a Scottish "No" is a foregone conclusion?
I am looking for a Glasgow BBC raddio station that I can tune into online. If there's any hint of it being close in the first exit polls the US markets will crap their pants Thursday early. There may be a window there early, maybe not. You could buy atm ($24) UVXY 9/20 or 9/26 calls and it could do $5-10 before Friday close, maybe catch a life-changer....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,845
  • Edited 8:25pm Sep 17, 2014 7:34pm | Edited 8:25pm
Looking for a way to capitalize on the bassackward iv in the YHOO calls. iv of the 9/26 $50 calls 0.76. 10/18 $50's is .52.

The 9/26 will crash early next week.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-09-17_YHOO.png Size: 299 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,846
  • Sep 17, 2014 7:53pm Sep 17, 2014 7:53pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I am looking for a Glasgow BBC raddio station that I can tune into online.....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/radioscotland
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,847
  • Sep 18, 2014 12:58am Sep 18, 2014 12:58am
iron....steel....VALE

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bumps-...113001333.html

China stimulus, positive Brazil election results by end of October....buy VALE calls
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-09-17_vale.png Size: 82 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,848
  • Sep 18, 2014 1:08am Sep 18, 2014 1:08am
Quoting Cecil Gee
UNG looks a good buy, 21.87 closing price today and we're heading for colder darker days
figuring that US natgas trade out is/should be a full-time job. I have been generally right about calling moves but also generally a couple weeks off on the timing, difference between life and death of course. Easier things to trade for me. Storage numbers out Thursday....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,849
  • Sep 18, 2014 5:42am Sep 18, 2014 5:42am
So, Jack Ma's astrologers foretold the dovish Fed and a frothy aftermath for US indices. Pre-market futures now pointing to new highs, just need to get past the Scotland vote and the BABA ipo will be one for the record books. If Scotland does not shock the world then we will see solid legs up in US stocks into next week, SnP looking for 2,040 by then....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-09-18_yhoo.png Size: 25 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,850
  • Sep 18, 2014 6:25am Sep 18, 2014 6:25am
New risk binge in equities will sink gold for sure, looking at that $1,180 double bottom....

http://finance.yahoo.com/video/why-c...203454542.html
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,851
  • Sep 18, 2014 6:23pm Sep 18, 2014 6:23pm
Quoting The Fool
So, Jack Ma's astrologers foretold the dovish Fed and a frothy aftermath for US indices. Pre-market futures now pointing to new highs, just need to get past the Scotland vote and the BABA ipo will be one for the record books. If Scotland does not shock the world then we will see solid legs up in US stocks into next week, SnP looking for 2,040 by then.... {image}
So YHOO has been held down all week, but tomorrow is showtime. What do you think the YHOO share price might do? Wild estimates flying all about, but the predominatre theme is "up". 9/20 $47 calls may be the best deal at $0.12/$0.17...but that won't hold at the open, I'd bet. Maybe just too late now....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,852
  • Sep 19, 2014 12:43am Sep 19, 2014 12:43am
Quoting The Fool
Pre-market futures now pointing to new highs, just need to get past the Scotland vote and the BABA ipo will be one for the record books. If Scotland does not shock the world then we will see solid legs up in US stocks into next week, SnP looking for 2,040 by then....
SnP breaks 2,020 tomorrow, BABA bidding war will be red hot. Seriously, they might have to suspend trading because BABA could suck all liquidity in the financial universe in on itself, like a black money hole, a freaking Babapalooza.

Just forget about your fancy spreads, your brokedick dogs, 3-legged lizards, etc, and just buy October SPY or SSO calls. There are no more conceivable constraints on the bull market which can now achieve a kind of persistent chart verticality never before seen. Enjoy.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-09-18_baba.png Size: 138 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,853
  • Sep 19, 2014 4:02am Sep 19, 2014 4:02am
Hoping to take a long call on GDX just for today's expiration depending where it opens from I will either long the $23 call if it opens lower than yesterdays close of 23.13 or $23.50 call if it opens where it closed from

Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
-NYSEArca
23.13 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.30(1.28%) 18 Sep 21:00

Also looking at VLO
  • #4,854
  • Sep 19, 2014 6:22am Sep 19, 2014 6:22am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} SnP breaks 2,020 tomorrow {image}
But wait, that's not all: UVXY making fresh new all-time lows, gold looking to break through $1,200, and fiber will break $1.28 in coming days
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,855
  • Sep 19, 2014 6:50am Sep 19, 2014 6:50am
Rick: "Central Banks are here to stay."

http://finance.yahoo.com/video/sante...154400927.html

I feel you, Rick. I think things would be a lot simpler and would likely turn out better if they just evenly distributed cash to everyone.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,856
  • Sep 19, 2014 8:13am Sep 19, 2014 8:13am
so, everybody came back from Summer vacation back around Labor Day and decided to start liquidating their long bond positions because the Fed was gonna end QE in a couple months and start moving up the imminent rate hike date. TLT fell from $119 to $112.80 in a couple weeks of trading.

But the Sept FOMC was dovish> So we could see a short squeeze play out in TLT. Earlier this week I sold 9/20 $112 puts against older $11 long puts and I bought 10/18 $116 long calls. $0.17/$0.43 gives me a $0.25 basis on the long calls. TLT gapping up this morning, maybe rise early next week, but I'd guess it will be pressured again soon. Will likely sell $116 calls if I see a nice move toward $115 next week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-09-19_tlt.png Size: 60 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,857
  • Sep 19, 2014 11:04am Sep 19, 2014 11:04am
Quoting The Fool
BABA bidding war will be red hot. Seriously, they might have to suspend trading because BABA could suck all liquidity in the financial universe in on itself, like a black money hole, a freaking Babapalooza.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-09-19_baba.png Size: 58 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,858
  • Sep 19, 2014 12:02pm Sep 19, 2014 12:02pm
YHOO taken down 5% on the BABA 1 day ipo. Why own YHOO if you can now buy BABA, no...? But will YHOO bounce with a rising BABA in the coming week/month?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,859
  • Sep 19, 2014 2:46pm Sep 19, 2014 2:46pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
Hoping to take a long call on GDX just for today's expiration depending where it opens from I will either long the $23 call if it opens lower than yesterdays close of 23.13 or $23.50 call if it opens where it closed from Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) -NYSEArca 23.13 {image} 0.30(1.28%) 18 Sep 21:00 Also looking at VLO
I've rolled into next weeks $23 call on GDX, SEP 26 EXP for 19c plus 7c I paid for the above trade so I'm still in this

Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
-NYSEArca
22.66 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.47(2.03%) 20:45 - Nasdaq Real Time Price
  • #4,860
  • Sep 19, 2014 2:48pm Sep 19, 2014 2:48pm
Quoting The Fool
YHOO taken down 5% on the BABA 1 day ipo. Why own YHOO if you can now buy BABA, no...? But will YHOO bounce with a rising BABA in the coming week/month?
YHOO got $8billion from today's IPO of ALIBABA
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