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Let's Trade Options

  • #4,821
  • Edited 12:25am Sep 16, 2014 12:04am | Edited 12:25am
the last little VIX spike of late July lasted 2 weeks, made 17; we've only been seeing these periodic spikes to ~21 for the last couple years. I'd take one though: the last time ^VIX popped to ~21 (2/3/14) UVXY shot up to >100.00...the July VIX pop to 17 sent UVXY to 39....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,822
  • Sep 16, 2014 1:17am Sep 16, 2014 1:17am
Quoting njr
Looks like the markets are about to become a little more 'fair and efficient' http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...be-allowed-cme http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-inform...s/RA1405-5.pdf
not sure I likes the sound of that! seriously though I won't have time to even think about that until the weekend, good catch though,njr
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,823
  • Sep 16, 2014 4:20am Sep 16, 2014 4:20am
Quadruple witching day on Friday, SPY is paying a dividend hence the puts being expensive
  • #4,824
  • Sep 16, 2014 5:09am Sep 16, 2014 5:09am
Quoting Cecil Gee
Quadruple witching day on Friday, SPY is paying a dividend hence the puts being expensive
Options expire in US on Friday and for DAX as well
  • #4,825
  • Edited 7:14am Sep 16, 2014 6:59am | Edited 7:14am
http://finance.yahoo.com/tumblr/blog...103123446.html

many positioning for rebound in Nasdaq names and indices. many say big selloff over recent says has been hedgies & other large traders freeing up dry powder to buy BABA shares.

not sure if I'm gonna try anything new prior to the FOMC....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,826
  • Sep 16, 2014 3:54pm Sep 16, 2014 3:54pm
Quoting The Fool
the last little VIX spike of late July lasted 2 weeks, made 17; we've only been seeing these periodic spikes to ~21 for the last couple years. I'd take one though: the last time ^VIX popped to ~21 (2/3/14) UVXY shot up to >100.00...the July VIX pop to 17 sent UVXY to 39.... {image} {image}
UVXY crashed >10% today, will do more maņana on a dovish Fed. The latter could be a surprise, crash the USD, send ^VIX back towards 11, pop the SnP to new highs. A real crap shoot....

Anyway, UVXY dips will be opps for bull put spreads, been one of the most reliable trades I've been doing the last several months....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,827
  • Sep 16, 2014 10:14pm Sep 16, 2014 10:14pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} UVXY crashed >10% today, will do more maņana on a dovish Fed. The latter could be a surprise, crash the USD, send ^VIX back towards 11, pop the SnP to new highs. A real crap shoot.... Anyway, UVXY dips will be opps for bull put spreads, been one of the most reliable trades I've been doing the last several months....
I think today's VIX dump and stock pop was a total fake-out.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,828
  • Sep 17, 2014 3:25am Sep 17, 2014 3:25am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I think today's VIX dump and stock pop was a total fake-out.
TLT is difficult to read for a short term scalp trade, its at 113.09 at yesterdays close. It has the capability to bounce hard but I'm finding it difficult to pinpoint where from because it just as easy fall to 111.05. It may be those wild swings we occasionally see with FOMC
  • #4,829
  • Sep 17, 2014 3:35am Sep 17, 2014 3:35am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} T.F. I'm no good with credit spreads but I'm willing to do a weekly long vertical call spread on XOM tomorrow, a simple long $96 and write $97, the closing prices is what I have and bar no surprises on the open I should still be able to purchase that spread for 7c debit or less with a potential profit of 1400% profit should it work out, looking to see if crude bounces a bit XOM Sep 2014 96.000 call (XOM140920C00096000) -OPR 0.70 {image} 0.77(52.38%) 12 Sep 20:59 XOM Sep 2014 97.000...
Closed the above trade out yesterday with a healthy profit, had GTC order in place and which took me out, XOM closed at 97.43 with a high of 98.03. Crude bounced

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)
-NYSE
97.43 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/up_g.gif 1.14(1.18%) 16 Sep 21:00
  • #4,830
  • Sep 17, 2014 3:44am Sep 17, 2014 3:44am
looking to make a scalp trade during FOMC on GLD , iF GLD starts to fall or slide during FOMC then i'm looking to long GLD from 116.80-117.00 for a 2 day scalp to 118+. Final thoughts will depend on what the FOMC have to say

GLD closed yesterday at 118.83

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
-NYSEArca
118.83 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/up_g.gif 0.19(0.16%) 16 Sep 21:00
  • #4,831
  • Sep 17, 2014 10:54am Sep 17, 2014 10:54am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I think today's VIX dump and stock pop was a total fake-out.
strong dollar is the plan, to help float the e-zone and show the Russkis and the Chinee who's still in charge
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,832
  • Sep 17, 2014 11:01am Sep 17, 2014 11:01am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} TLT is difficult to read for a short term scalp trade, its at 113.09 at yesterdays close. It has the capability to bounce hard but I'm finding it difficult to pinpoint where from because it just as easy fall to 111.05. It may be those wild swings we occasionally see with FOMC
total crap shoot. I had 9/20 $113.50 short puts & had to close em yesterday for about a $0.40 loss. given all the action in bonds lately, you may be right, we might see TLT move up/down for some time before everyone gets with the program post-FOMC. That's if the release is ambiguous. Complication is the press conference after the release - that stretches out the time for rates to jump around.

Anyway, I'ma wait till the dust clears a bit. I have 10/18 $111 long puts and $120 long calls, will look to put on safe short legs against each in the next 1-2 days.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,833
  • Sep 17, 2014 11:11am Sep 17, 2014 11:11am
closed this spread today, bought back the short puts for $0.36 and sold the long puts for $0.11, netted $0.23, need the margin, have a few more like it elsewhere...

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,834
  • Sep 17, 2014 1:51pm Sep 17, 2014 1:51pm
ZH summary of the FOMC

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...ct-dream-alive
  • #4,835
  • Sep 17, 2014 2:21pm Sep 17, 2014 2:21pm
Wow......Ma Yellen = VIX smasher!!!!!!!! Going to be difficult for the SPX index premium sellers!
  • #4,836
  • Sep 17, 2014 3:01pm Sep 17, 2014 3:01pm
Quoting njr
Wow......Ma Yellen = VIX smasher!!!!!!!! Going to be difficult for the SPX index premium sellers!
hang on to your hat, njr, we still have the Scots.

Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,837
  • Sep 17, 2014 3:33pm Sep 17, 2014 3:33pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} strong dollar is the plan, to help float the e-zone and show the Russkis and the Chinee who's still in charge
hella strong.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,838
  • Sep 17, 2014 3:59pm Sep 17, 2014 3:59pm
hmmm...is gold a buy yet?

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/2014...-surprise-laun
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,839
  • Sep 17, 2014 6:17pm Sep 17, 2014 6:17pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
looking to make a scalp trade during FOMC on GLD , iF GLD starts to fall or slide during FOMC then i'm looking to long GLD from 116.80-117.00 for a 2 day scalp to 118+. Final thoughts will depend on what the FOMC have to say GLD closed yesterday at 118.83 SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) -NYSEArca 118.83 {image} 0.19(0.16%) 16 Sep 21:00
did not reach target for me to buy but its looking like it will Thursdays opening price, depending where it opens and the first 20 minutes of trading I'm looking to long GLD BETWEEN 116.50 and 117,00. As you can see from the closing price below and the current after hours price we are not that far off, still only looking for Friday scalp trade so the strike price could be anywhere from $117- 118+

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
-NYSEArca
117.54 https://s.yimg.com/os/mit/media/m/ba...nt-1093278.png 1.29(1.09%) 17 Sep 21:00
|After Hours: : 117.10 https://s.yimg.com/os/mit/media/m/ba...nt-1093278.png 0.44 (0.37%) 00:08 - Nasdaq Real Time Price
  • #4,840
  • Sep 17, 2014 6:32pm Sep 17, 2014 6:32pm
Hi Cecil, gold will fall as the USD ascends I suppose, but there's a temporary floor somewhere, $1,200 maybe. What do you think YHOO might do on the BABA sales come Friday? Do you think a Scottish "No" is a foregone conclusion?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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