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The similarity system

  • #8,321
  • Sep 17, 2014 10:18am Sep 17, 2014 10:18am
I took this short based on CI, but later signal was repainted. Anyway TP was taken
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Everything is possible!!! Step by Step...
  • #8,322
  • Sep 17, 2014 10:47am Sep 17, 2014 10:47am
Some food of thought for the guys out there calling for much lower lows on EUR/USD for the medium term:
(By much lower I mean sub 1.25 region)

- Small speculators (i.e retailers = the guys that manage to lose 95% of time) are holding an all-time record number of short positions
If you look at the ForexFactory Positions/Live Accounts tab to check retail sentiment (in order to do the opposite), then you may want to take a look at the bigger picture.

- Large Banks' positions are at all-time record of long Euro positions. Again, ALL-TIME Extreme even though we are not even near any extreme in prices. Those guys are almost always correct with their bets.

- Commercial traders (i.e smart money) are more than +200,000 contracts long. These are levels not seen since 2012

- Large speculators (i.e Hedge Funds) slightly decreased their short positions on EUR last week, and guess who took those short position? Yes you guessed it, the retailers which will be left holding the bag.

- The USD Index is completely overbought. A quick look on its weekly RSI should show you where its going.
Also try checking how extreme the commercials' positions are in USD

I expect a short squeeze to take place in the near future . My target for that is 1.355 (that's where the small speculators started making money by shorting)
This could take place from current levels, 1.28 or even 1.27, but don't expect this low to be sustainable without a sizable correction first.

Disclaimer: The only eur/usd position i own is 0.25 contracts @ 1.29626 with a TP @ 1.2994 so trust me I couldn't care less if this goes to the moon or goes to zero. I just felt the need to share my view with everyone who is calling for a much lower Euro in the short/medium term before any sizable correction.
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  • #8,323
  • Sep 17, 2014 11:06am Sep 17, 2014 11:06am
Wow that was nice - had a pending order to sell at 78.
  • #8,324
  • Sep 17, 2014 11:15am Sep 17, 2014 11:15am
Quoting handy148
Wow that was nice - had a pending order to sell at 78.
Luck was on your side! Preparation meets opportunity! Tight SL, I imagine... what if it went shooting up instead?!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #8,325
  • Sep 17, 2014 11:24am Sep 17, 2014 11:24am
Well not that tight a stop loss - I like to give trades room to breathe.
  • #8,326
  • Sep 17, 2014 11:50am Sep 17, 2014 11:50am
I've shorted this at a stupidly stupid price of 2941... hesitated even when I saw 2950 flash before my very eyes. SL to BE+1
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #8,327
  • Sep 17, 2014 12:06pm Sep 17, 2014 12:06pm
Hello people,

I haven't been in this thread for awhile, and it has evolved!

I see people successfully coming up with complete concepts, which enjoyable. Haven't spent as much time with TZ, but you guys are inspiring me to, I like a challenge.

I'll start with MTF TZ sim/dis-sim.

Guys like vlady1974, Neio, Baillie, FX-Jay and others get a big thumbs up for their input.


MM
  • #8,328
  • Sep 17, 2014 12:10pm Sep 17, 2014 12:10pm
Quoting Madmoney
Hello people, I haven't been in this thread for awhile, and it has evolved! I see people successfully coming up with complete concepts, which enjoyable. Haven't spent as much time with TZ, but you guys are inspiring me to, I like a challenge. I'll start with MTF TZ sim/dis-sim. Guys like vlady1974, Neio, Baillie, FX-Jay and others get a big thumbs up for their input. MM
Hey MM,

Good to have you back around the traps!
You're definitely one of the pioneers of the thread and laid the groundwork for many of us - so a big thumbs up to you, mate!
Keep on inspiring us!

Vlad
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #8,329
  • Sep 17, 2014 12:11pm Sep 17, 2014 12:11pm
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Quoting Madmoney
Hello people, I haven't been in this thread for awhile, and it has evolved! I see people successfully coming up with complete concepts, which enjoyable. Haven't spent as much time with TZ, but you guys are inspiring me to, I like a challenge. I'll start with MTF TZ sim/dis-sim. Guys like vlady1974, Neio, Baillie, FX-Jay and others get a big thumbs up for their input. MM
Welcome back MM!
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #8,330
  • Sep 17, 2014 12:16pm Sep 17, 2014 12:16pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Hey MM, Good to have you back around the traps! You're definitely one of the pioneers of the thread and laid the groundwork for many of us - so a big thumbs up to you, mate! Keep on inspiring us! Vlad

Quoting Neio
{quote} Welcome back MM!
It's time for me to learn off of you guys and maybe add another feather to my bow.

MM
  • #8,331
  • Sep 17, 2014 12:30pm Sep 17, 2014 12:30pm
Quoting vlady1974
I've shorted this at a stupidly stupid price of 2941... hesitated even when I saw 2950 flash before my very eyes. SL to BE+1
Closed for 60 pips. Done for today.
Will look to re-assess tomorrow for Yellen. I'd love a retest from the prices we just left... or at least 50% of the range back.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #8,332
  • Sep 17, 2014 12:35pm Sep 17, 2014 12:35pm
Quoting Madmoney
Hello people, I haven't been in this thread for awhile, and it has evolved! I see people successfully coming up with complete concepts, which enjoyable. Haven't spent as much time with TZ, but you guys are inspiring me to, I like a challenge. I'll start with MTF TZ sim/dis-sim. Guys like vlady1974, Neio, Baillie, FX-Jay and others get a big thumbs up for their input. MM
Welcome back MM, look forward to your perspective.

Got some longs on now, taking ALOT of effort to push this market down. ATM, there is also a huge volume divergence; double bottom.

Im with FX Jay on this; going up.
  • #8,333
  • Sep 17, 2014 12:44pm Sep 17, 2014 12:44pm
It's still working...100+pips .
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  • #8,334
  • Sep 17, 2014 12:55pm Sep 17, 2014 12:55pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Closed for 60 pips. Done for today. Will look to re-assess tomorrow for Yellen. I'd love a retest from the prices we just left... or at least 50% of the range back.
Couldn't resist as the prices were so good. Sold again at 2883 and closed at 2858, with TZ forming. Perhaps Asia will respond in kind and get us back to 2880-2910
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #8,335
  • Sep 17, 2014 12:59pm Sep 17, 2014 12:59pm
Finally The brain racking price action is over.
  • #8,336
  • Sep 17, 2014 1:02pm Sep 17, 2014 1:02pm
Quoting LITEchild
It's still working...100+pips . {image}
That's brilliant mate! Love it!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #8,337
  • Sep 17, 2014 1:09pm Sep 17, 2014 1:09pm
Quoting Baillie
{quote} Welcome back MM, look forward to your perspective. Got some longs on now, taking ALOT of effort to push this market down. ATM, there is also a huge volume divergence; double bottom. Im with FX Jay on this; going up.
I think I see something already......

Not sure if I can confirm it here, but I see it on various pairs.

I'll try post some pics without giving it away.

MM

EDIT: Could be a great time to buy EU
  • #8,338
  • Sep 17, 2014 1:11pm Sep 17, 2014 1:11pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} That's brilliant mate! Love it!
Tnx buddy. Your analysis have been quite enlightening along the way.
  • #8,339
  • Sep 17, 2014 1:15pm Sep 17, 2014 1:15pm
Quoting FX-Jay
Looking for a 40 pip drop in USD/CHF, that will help the EUR/USD test 1.3 (which is also a level I am looking for) I'll be taking small positions here and adding to them if the $ strengthens pre/post FOMC. Please be careful if you want to follow these calls! Since the beginning of the strategy testing on Monday I made 45 trades with a 100% winning ratio, but please keep in mind that this is a probability strategy, and despite the fact of having a losing trade is very low, it is not impossible! What's more important is the following: When I take...
Just a quick reminder concerning the above post.
As mentioned I'm still holding (& adding) long positions on eur/usd & short positions on usd/chf
Probability/history has proven to be on the side of the above trades, and in case we don't reach the above mentioned targets by Tuesday's London close, I can assure you that the price will go high enough by that time to allow a positive close of the averaged down position for eur/usd & averaged up position for usd/chf.

I'm also holding small positions in eurhkd + eursgd (long) & usddkk + usdsgd (short)
  • #8,340
  • Sep 17, 2014 1:23pm Sep 17, 2014 1:23pm
Final Update for today's results

(too many orders - needed 2 screenshots )
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