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AUD/USD

  • #84,841
  • Sep 17, 2014 2:04am Sep 17, 2014 2:04am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Must say this is working extremely well so far.. {image}
i dont think it will retrace up to 61.8% fib... at max im giving it is at the 50% fib.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #84,842
  • Sep 17, 2014 9:18am Sep 17, 2014 9:18am
Quoting FXSayWhat
{quote} To answer your question, compare the size in FX market and Shanghai Composite, for one, I do NOT think Shanghai Composite is not the major cause for AUD falling to 0.900, period. We have had waves of bad data from AUD, weaken in China economy data, plus the USD rally fueled by the upcoming FOMC, it's enough reason to see why AU is falling to where it's at right now.
Thanks for answering my question, your well balanced opinion is informative.
* * * * * * * * * * * * *

Based upon the factors you and others have indicated in the last weeks i.e. China marked attenuation of economic activity, if not yet a full slow-down, and the near certainty of FED starting to EXIT from accommodating and "soft" monetary policies (at least among the institutional opinion , which matters) one can infer the possible reasons for general AUD weakening.

However - both the Huge extent of this recent price descent and its Astounding rapidity: - 5.3 % from 0.94 to 0.89 in just 10 days (!) , are still somewhat UN-explained (IMHO I should stress)

A detailed look at the weight of various influences can be helpful:

A ) 26% of Australia's exports go to China (and just puny 4.9% go to U.S.)

B) About 80% of Australian Exports (to the world) are COMMODITIES of various types

C) Every indicator EXCEPT exports in Australia has been quite stable last year, while workforce stats have markedly improved.

D) BUT - COMMODITIES (the whole smorgasbord of them) HAVE TAKEN A GIANT HIT FROM JULY
see e.g. here http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CRY:IND



In COMBINING points B) and D) and of US exit from the low-int.rt policy lies the solution: as is dramatically clear from last recession - when there is a slow down
COMMODITIES PLUMMET - and Aud goes with them ...
Siddhartha G
  • #84,843
  • Sep 17, 2014 9:20am Sep 17, 2014 9:20am
Highly doubted FOMC want USD to be even stronger when RMB, Yen and Euro are trying to stimulus economy. Big currency battle began.
  • #84,844
  • Sep 17, 2014 9:48am Sep 17, 2014 9:48am
today 0.88-0.89
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audus.png Size: 63 KB
More on my Blog...
  • #84,845
  • Sep 17, 2014 10:48am Sep 17, 2014 10:48am
XXX/JPY are flying ... except AUD/JPY

hmm.. smell trouble..
  • #84,846
  • Sep 17, 2014 10:53am Sep 17, 2014 10:53am
AUD\CAD is going down very fast too under 0.9900 now
I'm tired of making many samll GREEN pips, then one BIG red wash them all.
  • #84,847
  • Sep 17, 2014 11:18am Sep 17, 2014 11:18am
Quoting mv6
today 0.88-0.89 {image}

Uhh...too big target.I think.
  • #84,848
  • Sep 17, 2014 11:46am Sep 17, 2014 11:46am
Quoting Isingh
{quote} Thanks for answering my question, your well balanced opinion is informative. * * * * * * * * * * * * * Based upon the factors you and others have indicated in the last weeks i.e. China marked attenuation of economic activity, if not yet a full slow-down, and the near certainty of FED starting to EXIT from accommodating and "soft" monetary policies (at least among the institutional opinion , which matters) one can infer the possible reasons for general AUD weakening. However - both the Huge extent of this recent price descent and its Astounding...
I knew it when someone comes in repeatedly asks to get a respond, he comes in prepared.

You are on the right track, If you go a bit more detail on what makes the AUD's GDP and what relationship it has in terms of trading with China, you would get a better picture other than a bold term "COMMODITIES" is the key Aus-China factor here.

In terms of how AUD/USD doing here, on top of the fact AUD is losing ground across the board in the recent weeks, AUDUSD is dropping further (compare to other AUD pairs) because the USD bullish sentiment had been heading toward today's FOMC along with all positive USD news data.

In my sense, AUDUSD drop from 0.9400 is quite reasonable and inline with current market weather. Whether or not the down trend would extend below 0.900 to 0.8900, it would solidly depend on how this FOMC unfolds which is about 75 minutes.

Btw, very nice chatting with you.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #84,849
  • Sep 17, 2014 11:52am Sep 17, 2014 11:52am
Quoting gstup
{quote} Uhh...too big target.I think.
All depends on what the FOMC statement says + press conference
  • #84,850
  • Sep 17, 2014 11:59am Sep 17, 2014 11:59am
I have Short AUD\USD open, I will keep it open and lock the profit by moving the SL, just in case something happened on the coming news.
I'm tired of making many samll GREEN pips, then one BIG red wash them all.
  • #84,851
  • Sep 17, 2014 12:07pm Sep 17, 2014 12:07pm
Hi guys wondering if anyone has the 100pipsdailyscalper5.ex4 scalper indicator, can't seem to download it off web, not sure if its a real indicator or if scam or virus, any help here??? Cheers
  • #84,852
  • Sep 17, 2014 1:09pm Sep 17, 2014 1:09pm
Any ideas if AUD\USD will keep droping after the USD news?
I'm tired of making many samll GREEN pips, then one BIG red wash them all.
  • #84,853
  • Sep 17, 2014 1:13pm Sep 17, 2014 1:13pm
Good time to buy some AUD and keep
  • #84,854
  • Sep 17, 2014 2:10pm Sep 17, 2014 2:10pm
Quoting FXSayWhat
{quote} ... You are on the right track, If you go a bit more detail on what makes the AUD's GDP and what relationship it has in terms of trading with China, you would get a better picture other than a bold term "COMMODITIES" is the key Aus-China factor here...
Well I couldn't agree more. If you went to the link in my point B ) - you saw the detailed picture ( where b.t.w. I have simply summed up the squares ) and in that picture the 50% is made of Iron ore and Coal-Oil-Gas products.
These are all heavy industry fodder - so them pretty sensitive to construction slump in China and worldwide.

My first questioning post here in the forum still has relevance - China is initiating a QE -ish policy of its own , so an uplift of its' main "fodder-supplier" Australia would be natural to expect , at least to some extent.

Concl. : AVERAGE of aud/usd will stay in the next 6 months about where it is now. I have attached a very rough illustration of what is meant by that statement.

Mutually pleasant conversation - indeed.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Siddhartha G
  • #84,855
  • Sep 17, 2014 2:38pm Sep 17, 2014 2:38pm
My Short AUD\USD -40 pips changed to +6, closed it with happy face saved my day.
I'm tired of making many samll GREEN pips, then one BIG red wash them all.
  • #84,856
  • Sep 17, 2014 2:41pm Sep 17, 2014 2:41pm
go to wav 5
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud11.gif Size: 137 KB
  • #84,857
  • Sep 17, 2014 3:41pm Sep 17, 2014 3:41pm
short audusd my calculated targets $0.8716 & $0.8530
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd 9-17-14.png Size: 154 KB
"W. D. Gann said that time is the most important factor among all things."
  • #84,858
  • Sep 17, 2014 4:04pm Sep 17, 2014 4:04pm
woo hoo!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.jpg Size: 289 KB
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  • #84,859
  • Sep 17, 2014 4:07pm Sep 17, 2014 4:07pm
Stupied questions, but after knowing that all pairs are effecting each others I need to ask, Is tomorrow GBP new will effect AUD\USD going down ?
I'm tired of making many samll GREEN pips, then one BIG red wash them all.
  • #84,860
  • Sep 17, 2014 4:29pm Sep 17, 2014 4:29pm
Quoting milano
Stupied questions, but after knowing that all pairs are effecting each others I need to ask, Is tomorrow GBP new will effect AUD\USD going down ?
I'm no expert, but I don't see why GBP would affect the Australian Dollar or US Dollar. However, it's impact will be felt around the world, so it is certainly possible.

If you are looking for something to short, GBP/USD looks good around here.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
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