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Ramblings of a Forex Junkie

  • #3,941
  • May 6, 2014 7:57pm May 6, 2014 7:57pm
Good grief, less than a dozen new posts on a great thread that's been dead for months and it turns to shit already, unbelievable!
Per Ardua Ad Astra - Through Adversity To The Stars
  • #3,942
  • May 6, 2014 8:50pm May 6, 2014 8:50pm
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} Your attitude makes me think perhaps you are a frustrated loser, but that's no reason to ruin another thread. I respect your opinion but I disagree.
Fortunately, it's a good thing your perception, seemingly of many things, is unrelated to reality. Unfortunately, you find it worthy of peoples time to read your broken understanding of reality. Stop speaking dribble. The horse is dead. There's no need to beat it any further. MM is a done topic, and anyone who thinks otherwise needs to bring something new to the table, or educate themselves on why they are wrong to think that MM is not a done topic. You haven't brought anything new to the table and are just repeating tired and old nonsense thoughts that plenty of forex rookies come-up with in their own time before getting smarter or getting poorer.

Calling you out on your bullshit is not "ruining" anything except your hopes of being respected. Say what you mean, and mean what you say. If what you say is wrong expect to be called-out. You don't get a free pass just because there are lots of people who know no better than to drink your kool-aid. Anyone else who wants to bitch and moan about threads being "ruined" only have the people talking crap to blame. If you all want to delude yourselves then have at it somewhere else. There ARE forums with like-minded people such as yourselves.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #3,943
  • May 6, 2014 9:16pm May 6, 2014 9:16pm
Quoting nubcake
{quote} Fortunately, it's a good thing your perception, seemingly of many things, is unrelated to reality. Unfortunately, you find it worthy of peoples time to read your broken understanding of reality. Stop speaking dribble. The horse is dead. There's no need to beat it any further. MM is a done topic, and anyone who thinks otherwise needs to bring something new to the table, or educate themselves on why they are wrong to think that MM is not a done topic. You haven't brought anything new to the table and are just repeating tired and old nonsense...
You don't have to read my posts, I know you're some special sort of idiot, but you put me on ignore and now moan about my posts... anyone recognize the hallmark of a loser?
tradewith60
  • #3,944
  • May 6, 2014 9:30pm May 6, 2014 9:30pm
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} You don't have to read my posts, I know you're some special sort of idiot, but you put me on ignore and now moan about my posts... anyone recognize the hallmark of a loser?
I read what amuses me. I should thank you for the entertainment you so freely provide. That doesn't mean you should go about spreading stupidity for the sake of amusing people like myself. Do better. Your posturing is not in confluence with the lack of intellect you display.

If I could just tag you as a moron and leave your posts visible I would. But, instead I have the privilege of putting you on ignore, and having others see that in my profile as a warning to take your posts with a big dose of penicillin.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #3,945
  • Edited 4:19am May 7, 2014 3:48am | Edited 4:19am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} I made a point about this earlier in the thread, as with all strategies that use technical analysis you have no edge, it is no better than a coin toss and over a decent test size will nearly always come out at 50/50. You have to combine technical analysis with money management to give it an edge, in this case accepting more stop outs and getting a few big wins (although thats is not the only viable combination) What technical strategies do give you is a structure to work within, nothing more, I would say that about 95% of traders (especially...

I read that point, but lets say that you do indeed have blind luck in hitting your targets, over time you would expect things to even out. If have a 2 times risk profit target in one trade, and a 10 times risk profit target in another. To my mind, if you leave both and walk away, the results are the same:

@ 2 times profit you will win 33% of your trades if you have an even chance = net even
@ 10 times profit you will win 9.09% of your trades = net even

So how is that different? I'm not sure I agree that money management can give you the edge, but I am open to persuasion. In my opinion, it is the application of correct technical strategies in the current market i.e. trending strategies in a trending market, and mean reversion strategies in a side ways market that makes the difference. I'm starting to believe that technical analysis needs to be combined with some fundamental view.
  • #3,946
  • May 7, 2014 2:35pm May 7, 2014 2:35pm
Quoting Flipper58
{quote} Mike, If you download and use this indi go back a few years on your preferred pairs and watch how price reacts to it. I only trade H4 these days but I still find it very useful.
Thanks man
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #3,947
  • May 7, 2014 4:01pm May 7, 2014 4:01pm
Quoting MCRotter
{quote} I read that point, but lets say that you do indeed have blind luck in hitting your targets, over time you would expect things to even out. If have a 2 times risk profit target in one trade, and a 10 times risk profit target in another. To my mind, if you leave both and walk away, the results are the same: @ 2 times profit you will win 33% of your trades if you have an even chance = net even @ 10 times profit you will win 9.09% of your trades = net even So how is that different? I'm not sure I agree that money management can give you the...
Possibly, but I have never seen any data that conclusively proves that technical analysis has a statistical edge or that it is any better at predicting future movements than random entries. For me technical analysis on it's own will lead more to ruin than it will to consistent profits.

Have a look at the data this trader has collected on babypips. It suggests that higher RR ratio's have some 'edge' if you want to call it that, so combining them with a structured technical approach, in my mind has some merit.
http://forums.babypips.com/newbie-is...anagement.html

If you read on there is also some interesting data on Stop loss placement and comparing break out to retrace entries...

As for fundamentals, I agree, especially if you're using the higher TF charts to represent some sort of mass sentiment, it's hard to deny trading inline with the weekly and monthly bias/trend can not be used to your advantage, something else I suggested earlier in this thread..... if weekly trend is long, if yesterday closed long, buying the dips is not a bad strategy.

Ultimately the ideas in this thread are good, on paper, but it is more of those strategies that people seem to find very hard to profit from... and you're test results are a good example why.
tradewith60
  • #3,948
  • May 7, 2014 5:12pm May 7, 2014 5:12pm
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} Possibly, but I have never seen any data that conclusively proves that technical analysis has a statistical edge or that it is any better at predicting future movements than random entries. For me technical analysis on it's own will lead more to ruin than it will to consistent profits. Have a look at the data this trader has collected on babypips. It suggests that higher RR ratio's have some 'edge' if you want to call it that, so combining them with a structured technical approach, in my mind has some merit. http://forums.babypips.com/newbie-is...anagement.html...
Good info, read the first page of that thread, have book marked for later reading.
  • #3,949
  • May 12, 2014 7:22am May 12, 2014 7:22am
I am just writing this post to register this awesome thread in my profile.
Thanks, Seneca!
  • #3,950
  • May 30, 2014 2:08pm May 30, 2014 2:08pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} About 35 here. Kids first birthday party is tomorrow and the weather is perfect for the pool. It was a great week for levels. Sideways markets are very kind to highs, lows, and closes.
Congratulations!! I hope they are doing good.
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Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #3,951
  • Aug 13, 2014 5:19am Aug 13, 2014 5:19am
It has been some time since I finished reading the whole thread and it's a pity it died the way it did.
Huge thanks, Seneca Pilot, for showing really solid foundations! I hope you still glance at the thread once in a while. It did change my view on the markets, structure, orders and money management, and after almost 4000 posts I really regret people took these rambling from a great brainstorm food for thought to a "prove to me me me that this system works" mentality. Seems most want a scaffolding to paint the wall on it's own Few realise they need to take the brush, do the job themselves, but they can safely climb on what you have provided.

TantumVerum, huge thanks, too! I felt my thinking was so similar to yours it was intriguing at moments. It was funny chewing through the thread, coming with new ideas, bit of personal "eureka" moments only to read similar concepts in your later posts

Thanks to the rest, too - Hollowhead, stevexyg, Hyperion, 60minuteman, billytt, Olarion1975 and some I may have forgotten - your ramblings with the OP made this topic what it is. Good trading to you all

Hope everything is OK with you and your family, Chris. Wish you the best
  • #3,952
  • Sep 15, 2014 2:45am Sep 15, 2014 2:45am
Quoting mike1349
{quote} Congratulations!! I hope they are doing good. {image}
The boys are doing great. Thank you for asking.
  • #3,953
  • Sep 15, 2014 2:51am Sep 15, 2014 2:51am
I am curious. How many traders who learned the basics of the thread are still using the trade methods? Some things never change.
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  • #3,954
  • Sep 15, 2014 5:05am Sep 15, 2014 5:05am
Quoting Seneca pilot
I am curious. How many traders who learned the basics of the thread are still using the trade methods? Some things never change. {image}
Hey Seneca Just going through the door when I saw you post. I really enjoyed your thread and felt it gave people who wanted something workable and simple a very good approach but as usual the dim shits who weren't prepared to read and just take it at face value, all ways wanting more when everything had been given, ruined it in the end.
I don't use your approach specifically but close enough (except weekly/mothly) to be drawn to the thread in the first place.

Hope your trading is still going well and good luck.
Once You See, You Can't Unsee But You Will Get The Odd Poke In The Eye
  • #3,955
  • Edited 4:56pm Sep 15, 2014 2:25pm | Edited 4:56pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} The boys are doing great. Thank you for asking.
Hi Steve,
Happy to have you here again.I didn't get a chance to try it yet but working on it.It seems you are still making money out of the original system,ya?

Mike
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #3,956
  • Sep 15, 2014 2:34pm Sep 15, 2014 2:34pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
I am curious. How many traders who learned the basics of the thread are still using the trade methods? Some things never change. {image}
Great to see you pop in for a post Chris. Glad the boys are doing well. I can say I have applied much of what you shared, not the method - the lessons. Stay well. Steve
  • #3,957
  • Sep 15, 2014 5:38pm Sep 15, 2014 5:38pm
Hi Traders,

I have a question. Does anybody here trading on a Live account, reconcile the daily bank statements they recieve against the orders they placed / closed on MT4? I'm just wondering if it is possible for discrepancies to appear or is what's input in MT4 fed straight into the banks / brokers trading system. I will start performing a reconciliation function but only if it makes sense.

Thanks and regards,
Bullbear
Even a journey of a thousand miles starts with a single step.
  • #3,958
  • Sep 15, 2014 8:08pm Sep 15, 2014 8:08pm
I am trading your methods allied with some of my own techniques Chris/SP and it has truly improved my trading and attitude. I thank you so much-you really helped me out.
  • #3,959
  • Oct 7, 2014 4:49am Oct 7, 2014 4:49am
Quoting Seneca pilot
I am curious. How many traders who learned the basics of the thread are still using the trade methods? Some things never change. {image}

Well, what I have noticed is that these levels do go in and our of effectiveness over long periods of time. Especially when a market switches from trending to ranging or vise versa. I find it impossible to tell when this will occur.
  • #3,960
  • Oct 11, 2014 9:35pm Oct 11, 2014 9:35pm
Quoting fxterrapin
{quote} Well, what I have noticed is that these levels do go in and our of effectiveness over long periods of time. Especially when a market switches from trending to ranging or vise versa. I find it impossible to tell when this will occur.
This is true of all trading. Nothing will work every day without some losses. It is the long term consistent application of a method that tells the story. There are some constants that never change though. There are very important prices printed every day that ALWAYS matter. This doesn't guarantee winning trades every day but it does insure a consistent framework from which to work.

Reread carefully. Look closely for the clues I dropped. There were some things I simply mentioned in passing that may have been more important than the mechanics that I spent lots of time covering. There are price bars and price levels that will always guide you in the direction that you should be trading. Remember, the important things in trading are price, time, and market.

Sorry if this is a bit cryptic but I don't want to get into too much of a lesson thread again. What you need to know is there.
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