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  • #84,801
  • Sep 15, 2014 5:42am Sep 15, 2014 5:42am
Does someone here understand how MMs play these gaps? Is there "unsolved business" in terms of open interest, etc.
I've heard that in equity markets these gaps are part of inventory adjustment, I wonder whether it applies to foreign exchange.
  • #84,802
  • Sep 15, 2014 6:37am Sep 15, 2014 6:37am
Some gaps can change investors sentiment .., a panic selling and take profit create this figure.
If skills could be acquired by watching, every dog would be a butcher. Turk
  • #84,803
  • Sep 15, 2014 6:41am Sep 15, 2014 6:41am
Hi everyone. I am new here. Just watching this thread.... and wondering if it is a bullish engulfing on the H4 candle? And is it too early to take the trade to the upside, or just wait for the long move to finish and take the short?
  • #84,804
  • Sep 15, 2014 6:45am Sep 15, 2014 6:45am
Quoting Zircon
Some gaps can change investors sentiment .., a panic selling and take profit create this figure.

Sellers may get out any time, need to see a buying on H4 TF this could be a good signal for long short term? maybe
If skills could be acquired by watching, every dog would be a butcher. Turk
  • #84,805
  • Sep 15, 2014 7:58am Sep 15, 2014 7:58am
There we go, back to neutral on this pair.
  • #84,806
  • Sep 15, 2014 8:13am Sep 15, 2014 8:13am
Quoting Imaywin
There we go, back to neutral on this pair.
What is neutral?
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #84,807
  • Sep 15, 2014 8:23am Sep 15, 2014 8:23am
all flat here...

Looking for 9150s for better potential short entries...
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #84,808
  • Sep 15, 2014 8:43am Sep 15, 2014 8:43am
Quoting VaBikePacker
all flat here... Looking for 9150s for better potential short entries...

0.9150 this year, again?
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #84,809
  • Sep 15, 2014 8:48am Sep 15, 2014 8:48am
Quoting mima
{quote} 0.9150 this year, again?
well, keep in mind that I don't see .9584 out of the question at this point either...
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #84,810
  • Sep 15, 2014 9:19am Sep 15, 2014 9:19am
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  • #84,811
  • Sep 15, 2014 9:29am Sep 15, 2014 9:29am
.9584 will never be hit whilst things are as they are (we are desperately seeking a weaker AUD). nor will 92. Not now. I have a hat here ready to eat if so.

I believe you should read up on the history of RBA intervetion and recent minutes of meetings before you believe in usual TA in this pair. Aud is in some ways unique in that aspect. Commodity currencies stands to gain significantly from weakness considering denomination of commodities (USD) themselves and in consideration of currently falling commodity prices (looking to get worse). Sell the peaks. Intervention is occurring. This is not conspiratorial but rather paraphrasing Stevens. We were warned of this.
Corripe Cervisiam!
  • #84,812
  • Sep 15, 2014 9:39am Sep 15, 2014 9:39am
Quoting paddlepip
.9584 will never be hit whilst things are as they are (we are desperately seeking a weaker AUD). nor will 92. Not now. I have a hat here ready to eat if so. I believe you should read up on the history of RBA intervetion and recent minutes of meetings before you believe in usual TA in this pair. Aud is in some ways unique in that aspect. Commodity currencies stands to gain significantly from weakness considering denomination of commodities (USD) themselves and in consideration of currently falling commodity prices (looking to get worse). Sell the...
I don't disagree that we're seeing intervention in progress. I also don't think it will go down forever either. History has proven that quite well also.
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #84,813
  • Sep 15, 2014 10:15am Sep 15, 2014 10:15am
Quoting VaBikePacker
{quote} I don't disagree that we're seeing intervention in progress. I also don't think it will go down forever either. History has proven that quite well also.
Of course not forever. However (beyond already stated):

1. IO mining here employs a shitload of people. RBA is charged with full employment. It is their role to keep employment as static as possible. Either AUD comes down (in the face of falling IO price so it at best remains relatively flat in USD terms) or supply is constricted (to raise price of IO). The latter will never happen. These producers (RIO, BHP etc) are in fact extracting more to price out the smaller producers.
2. China is simply not buying as much, nor will they implement the same stimulus again (immense building... steel making is in trouble there, not to mention they are finding their own sources both here and abroad- Africa, bypassing normal channels and therefore not affecting price via demand).
3. There is no sovereign risk, yet high rates comparatively to developed nations (except NZ, which is a somewhat recent occurrence). The utilisation of this mechanism may soon be obsolete as rates rise in the US.

Simply put, they are pushing this down for reasons relevant to their mandate "stability of currency, employment and welfare of australian people".
I'd imagine they want this (AUD) down for some time until transition to (insert imaginary sector) takes over.

Yours truly.

An open pit mine.

Corripe Cervisiam!
  • #84,814
  • Sep 15, 2014 10:30am Sep 15, 2014 10:30am
Quoting paddlepip
{quote} Of course not forever. However (beyond already stated): 1. IO mining here employs a shitload of people. RBA is charged with full employment. It is their role to keep employment as static as possible. Either AUD comes down (in the face of falling IO price so it at best remains relatively flat in USD terms) or supply is constricted (to raise price of IO). The latter will never happen. These producers (RIO, BHP etc) are in fact extracting more to price out the smaller producers. 2. China is simply not buying as much, nor will they implement...
I always like the 'boots on the ground' views of things, so, thanks for that - at the end of the day though, prices are going to rise and prices are going to fall - price itself lowering is an indicator of a strong currency anyway...this idea that unless prices are rising we're in trouble is crap. In an educated and stable society prices are getting lower and stabilizing in line with supply and demand - weakening a currency to raise prices doesn't help anybody - good to hear the US isn't the only place with stupidity in high places.

I've simply shared my opinion on what's possible with the pair - timing is a whole other component to it. Yeh, US raising interest rates - that'll be a heck of a day...US market rallies won't be done - and when the happen, currencies like the AUD will be the beneficiary yet again..
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #84,815
  • Sep 15, 2014 10:53am Sep 15, 2014 10:53am
Quoting VaBikePacker
{quote} I've simply shared my opinion on what's possible with the pair - timing is a whole other component to it. Yeh, US raising interest rates - that'll be a heck of a day...US market rallies won't be done - and when the happen, currencies like the AUD will be the beneficiary yet again..
I think your target will stand for sure sooner or later, and I very much appreciate your opinion don't get me wrong. The problem is we are now contending with the RBA (not to mention the Fed) with endless-ish pockets.

In many markets today traders face distortions of reality. But it's rampant now. Soon I hope it will stop.

Much green pippage for you.
Corripe Cervisiam!
  • #84,816
  • Sep 15, 2014 5:40pm Sep 15, 2014 5:40pm
dont expect aud nzd would stay this low level. China still has massive Usd and want to invest in these two countries.
  • #84,817
  • Sep 15, 2014 7:07pm Sep 15, 2014 7:07pm
AUDUSD could see a bounce here but there definitely isn't a floor in place yet as we could easily make it to .88 before we see any real floor. However I am projecting price to see a retrace back to .9200 before it finds more real demand where I will short. Until that time either hold shorts or wait to get short. Simple as that! Dont try and buy bottom here.
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All posts are my personal opinion
  • #84,818
  • Sep 15, 2014 7:51pm Sep 15, 2014 7:51pm
Quoting zew
dont expect aud nzd would stay this low level. China still has massive Usd and want to invest in these two countries.
I agree with Rtm's post above. It seems like Aussie is getting ready to breach new lows, particularly AUD/NZD, which appears to be the most bearish AUD pair from my analysis.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #84,819
  • Sep 15, 2014 8:01pm Sep 15, 2014 8:01pm
Keeping my short AUD\USD open with -30pips, -20 more pips and will hit SL.
I'm tired of making many samll GREEN pips, then one BIG red wash them all.
  • #84,820
  • Sep 16, 2014 12:45am Sep 16, 2014 12:45am
Quoting milano
Keeping my short AUD\USD open with -30pips, -20 more pips and will hit SL.
Great work! I am still short AUD/NZD and I personally wouldn't cover AUD/USD just yet. The 4H TF is just getting started, Daily TF looks weak, and Weekly and Monthly TF's are bearish.

The longer you hold on to the trade, the more you should make imo!
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
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