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  • #1,421
  • Sep 12, 2014 5:00am Sep 12, 2014 5:00am
Another BE its just not working today, properly could blame it on being a Friday but no follow through for me to grab a run today. Its days like this when you think just scalp the buggers and grab a handful here and there. been up a few times by 5 to 10 pips but trying to hold for the MA turns..

Oh well give it another couple of goes then call it a day. Sometimes you can fish all day with plenty of bites but no decent sized fish....
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,422
  • Sep 12, 2014 10:15am Sep 12, 2014 10:15am
Well that was a total waste of time, BE trade after BE trade and of course a couple of losers at the end, but when I look back at the day its not really surprising as nothing really went one way or the other for more than 30 or 40 pips..

Lost a couple because I was desperately looking for a winning trade whereas I'd of been better off after a load of BE trades to realise it was a rangy old day and either start scalping for a handful of pips here and there or just stop trading all together as it just wasn't working today.

All good experience and all part of the learning curve but of course its impossible to know we have a rangy day in front of us isn't it??? maybe I should just make a rule if my first 3 trades lose or come out at BE then either scalp or stop trading for that session.

Looking forward to next week see if I can catch a nice little trend. Mind you I've been thinking about all those large runners this week maybe I should stop chasing them after all they are the exception rather than the rule, maybe I should accept the typical day is more like today, so trade accordingly. Also I could use a 100 NLMA instead of a 200, that way I could just scalp the individual runs better.

Forex trading is certainly a difficult game to master thats for sure, it plays with your mind all the time, just when you think you've got it cracked it comes back and smacks you in the face...

Lets see what happens next week...
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,423
  • Sep 12, 2014 10:58am Sep 12, 2014 10:58am
Just quickly reviewed all my trades today and there's one common theme through them all today, I wasn't catching the first pullbacks after the MA colour change. If you look through the ones I posted here You're see the same thing, If I had caught the first pullbacks after the colour change I might of got a few more pips with the earlier entry.

Hmm the problem is caused by the TT indy by design when a pair comes to the top its run for a while already which is not a problem on a good day when the pairs are running a bit but on a day like today it just leads to too late entries just before the pair turns back again. OK I'm never one to shirk adapting a plan if its needed and what I'm thinking about will still mean we can catch the big trenders but also maybe scalp a few pips on rangy days like today.

Here's what I'm thinking.....

I will monitor the top 8 pairs in the 5 min TTindy, because if a pair is going to run it will be top in the 5 min for sure. Then I will put a 100 NLMA on my chart which will alert me to every colour change back in direction of the 5 min trend so I will then check that chart to see if a pullback sets up and take the first pullback if I like the look of it. If it goes then I will look to hold on the NLMA until it changes colour again but take a view on whether to close or hold through the turn.


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This way it will give me some 20 to 30 pip scalps on days like today but still have the opportunity to trade any trends that develop. Might even close out half on the NLMA turns and hold the other half.

Yep that should do it, basically trading the 1 min turns in the direction of the 5 min strongest trenders will scalp and hold.

Will give that a go next week....
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,424
  • Sep 13, 2014 1:22am Sep 13, 2014 1:22am
Quoting clivepackham
Just quickly reviewed all my trades today and there's one common theme through them all today, I wasn't catching the first pullbacks after the MA colour change. If you look through the ones I posted here You're see the same thing, If I had caught the first pullbacks after the colour change I might of got a few more pips with the earlier entry. Hmm the problem is caused by the TT indy by design when a pair comes to the top its run for a while already which is not a problem on a good day when the pairs are running a bit but on a day like today it...
you are perhaps king of the undersized sample. best of luck tho.
It's a buy the dip scheme, ya feel me?
  • #1,425
  • Sep 13, 2014 5:58am Sep 13, 2014 5:58am
Quoting nightstocher
{quote} you are perhaps king of the undersized sample. best of luck tho.

Hi Nightstocher

Thanks for your comment but I'm not sure I understand what you mean??? If you feel like sharing your thoughts and observations that would be great all comments, observations, constructive criticism is very much appreciated...

I'm a great believer in "The power of the group" an individuals assumptions and conclusions can be very limited at times by his own self limiting beliefs etc,so any comments, pionts of view etc are very welcome here...
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,426
  • Sep 13, 2014 6:07am Sep 13, 2014 6:07am
I'm off to work right now so won't be around to discuss any ideas etc but when I get home I am going to write a post very clearly outlining my strategy going forward which of course is constantly changing as I learn more and more about this fascinating business of Forex trading.

I have set myself a personal goal to crack this forex trading once and for all and won't stop until I am a successful full time trader which I believe is very very close....

Catch up later

Bye for now...
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,427
  • Sep 13, 2014 11:33am Sep 13, 2014 11:33am
Liking what I see...especially the enthusiasm and commitment. Looking forward to more posts.
Complexity is the Enemy of Execution...
  • #1,428
  • Sep 13, 2014 1:00pm Sep 13, 2014 1:00pm
Quoting clivepackham
I'm off to work right now so won't be around to discuss any ideas etc but when I get home I am going to write a post very clearly outlining my strategy going forward which of course is constantly changing as I learn more and more about this fascinating business of Forex trading. I have set myself a personal goal to crack this forex trading once and for all and won't stop until I am a successful full time trader which I believe is very very close.... Catch up later Bye for now...
this is what i mean about the sample size. you clearly put a lot of effort and energy into chart time and dissecting what's happening in the markets and that's commendable. it's just done over too small a window of data to prove effective long term.

i've been dropping in and out every now and again and in catching up with the thread it seems there's almost always multiple: 'here's my new variation of the strategy posts.' in these posts you express a perspective on market dynamics and commitment to the type of trading that capitalizes on it moving forward. this commitment is quickly replaced again and again. the market trends hard one day and it's strong trenders and pullbacks and holding positions to the very last. the market ranges and it's faster MAs quick scalps get in and get out.

a successful strategy should be sufficiently robust to weather all sorts of market conditions or the trader needs to recognize when to employ certain strategies that capitalize on current market conditions.

instead of finding patterns from yesterday to trade tomorrow, why not patterns that worked over the past 1000 trades and commit to seeing how they fare over the next 1000 trades; testing strategies that succeeded over the past five years for another five years. and even then nothing is guaranteed, but you'll be a whole lot closer.
It's a buy the dip scheme, ya feel me?
  • #1,429
  • Sep 13, 2014 2:28pm Sep 13, 2014 2:28pm
Quoting nightstocher
{quote} this is what i mean about the sample size. you clearly put a lot of effort and energy into chart time and dissecting what's happening in the markets and that's commendable. it's just done over too small a window of data to prove effective long term. i've been dropping in and out every now and again and in catching up with the thread it seems there's almost always multiple: 'here's my new variation of the strategy posts.' in these posts you express a perspective on market dynamics and commitment to the type of trading that capitalizes on...

Thanks my friend that makes a lot of sense...

Another bonus with trading 1 minute charts as there's plenty of patterns to research and back test, 1440 candles in a day to be exact, the same amount of daily candles equates to 5 and a half years???? So you're quite right need to look back and see what repeats itself time after time. Its all very well in theory but a different kettle of fish to do in practice when trading "live".

I've been slowly coming to the realization that if I focus on just catching the big 1 minute trends (100 plus pips)that appear frequently and base a strategy around that then when the market ranges like it does 70% of the time then I just end up either at BE or worse a loser. Thats why I've made my recent modification because if I can get in really early on the initial reversal, then if its a small range move I will still win but smaller. If however it develops into a bigger move then I can hold it on the NLMA. So I get both market types.

Now how I do that is where I'm at right now. I think I can catch the early moves easy enough, just trade every 8 CCI pullback after a NLMA colour change, but the real question is how do I decide what to hold and what to fold??? How do I determine the strength of the trend? Basically I've got to come up with a method of identifying the strongest trending moves. My initial thoughts are to watch the individual drives and if they easily pass the previous then take the next pullback and hold the trade. If there's a couple of failed drives then trail my stops up behind the last HL in an uptrend and above the last LH in a downtrend, then if the market structure gets broken I'm out. However if the next push takes us higher or lower continue to hold.

This is particularly useful when price consolidates for a while before pushing on with the trend. A correction I believe is the right term.

The secret of course is to make these decisions as the price moves or waves its way higher or lower depending on the trend direction. Thats where I'm at right now refining my trading skills as the trend develops or more importantly as it ends, get out at the right time.

Thanks again for your thoughts really appreciate it and yes I will be looking into the highest probability trade setups to trade..

many thanks
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,430
  • Sep 14, 2014 2:40am Sep 14, 2014 2:40am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Thanks my friend that makes a lot of sense... Another bonus with trading 1 minute charts as there's plenty of patterns to research and back test, 1440 candles in a day to be exact, the same amount of daily candles equates to 5 and a half years???? So you're quite right need to look back and see what repeats itself time after time. Its all very well in theory but a different kettle of fish to do in practice when trading "live". I've been slowly coming to the realization that if I focus on just catching the big 1 minute trends (100 plus pips)that...
Thanks again for all your good work and for posting your thoughts .
  • #1,431
  • Sep 15, 2014 3:13am Sep 15, 2014 3:13am
GBPCHF top of 5 mins TT and turned up so thought I'd give this a go, ideal time just after London Open so got a chance of running, hopefully.
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,432
  • Sep 15, 2014 3:26am Sep 15, 2014 3:26am
I think this colour change and first pullback could be the way to go, it gets me in a little earlier than TT indy on its own as these four pairs show. First pullbacks are nice entries on all 4 pairs so going to work with this a bit more.

I'm trying to develop a system that works well on rangy as well as good trending days, early days but so far so good...

Now I've got to decide when is enough??? NLMA colour change?? Try to gauge the trend strength by how strong its new push ups are???

I'm favouring the colour change today purely because of the time of day I caught this one, quite often get nice little runs from just after the LO.

Time will tell...
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,433
  • Sep 15, 2014 3:50am Sep 15, 2014 3:50am
Just sitting here watching my trade progress nicely, bit concerned about the 1.5225 level top of a recent range but it might burst through as its the 4th knock???? Anyway I'm at BE so can't hurt me now...

As you all know by now I'm forever looking at ideas to improve my strategy etc and couldn't help noticing this morning how nicely the HA candle colour changes look on a Top Trender like this, nearly every colour change from red to green would of been a nice entry using a 2 pips above pending order... Guess its because we are looking at every little pullback in the move up.

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I particularly like it when it coincides with a CCI pullback to below the -100 level.

I've said this so many times but all these signals and cci pullbacks HHHL's market structure etc work very well in strong trending pairs and thats what we've got here. Also I've said many times before that price can only go up or down, no matter what time frame you look at. Now the definition of up for me is the 1 minute is trending up and the definition of down for me is the 1 minute trending down. So why not just look for those 1 minute trend reversals and take an entry on next pullback??? Get to BE quickly and see where it goes???

This 100NLMA seems to show each reversal quite well too so whenever we get a colour change check out the next pullback or HA colour change?? Lets face it we never know how far price is going to move one way or the other do we??? We think we do but we don't....

So heres a thought, why not pick the top 8 ATR pairs that move 100 plus pips per day and enter whenever thier NLMA changes colour?? Probably would catch the tops and bottoms of daily candles on a regular basis. Only trade market opens and see what we catch???

Just thought I'd share my thoughts...
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,434
  • Sep 15, 2014 4:17am Sep 15, 2014 4:17am
My GBPCHF is doing ok but its got a tough 15 min top of range to break plus =its Fridays high but these 1 min trends are tough little so and so's, who knows??

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Just having a look at some more NLMA slope changes this morning that look tasty like EURAUD this morning??

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Heres 4 more so theres plenty of choice and the good thing is if you get it wrong you lose 10 pips, big deal!!!

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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,435
  • Sep 15, 2014 4:26am Sep 15, 2014 4:26am
Hi Clive

In euraud from 1.4401. Colour change on ma, all the eur pairs were pretty much below the 100lwma so it was weak-ish across the board and of course some nice smooth a b c's. I think we'll be trying to keep this one for a while.
  • #1,436
  • Sep 15, 2014 4:30am Sep 15, 2014 4:30am
Quoting Vantage
Hi Clive In euraud from 1.4401. Colour change on ma, all the eur pairs were pretty much below the 100lwma so it was weak-ish across the board and of course some nice smooth a b c's. I think we'll be trying to keep this one for a while.
Nice one Mr V

I'm watching this GBPCHF closely needs to break Fridays high...
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,437
  • Sep 15, 2014 4:54am Sep 15, 2014 4:54am
Failed drive so banked 20 pips now common sense tells me to leave it at that as that was my morning LO trade done and dusted...

But of course now GBPCHF has turned over, should I sell it????
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,438
  • Sep 15, 2014 4:55am Sep 15, 2014 4:55am
Hi Clive,

Have been putting this setup to the test this morning and have had great success. Thanks for sharing and caring.

Pete
  • #1,439
  • Sep 15, 2014 5:05am Sep 15, 2014 5:05am
Quoting pete123
Hi Clive, Have been putting this setup to the test this morning and have had great success. Thanks for sharing and caring. Pete

Well done Pete good news.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,440
  • Sep 15, 2014 5:13am Sep 15, 2014 5:13am
Quoting pete123
Hi Clive, Have been putting this setup to the test this morning and have had great success. Thanks for sharing and caring. Pete
Feel free to post charts when you are out of the trade. If you go to account history click on trade then drag onto your chart, it will show entry and exit.
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