eyeing 175.45/.50 area..if holds then eye retracement.173... above this next tgt 176.25/.48
Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)
- #14,483
- Sep 13, 2014 11:42am Sep 13, 2014 11:42am
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: CHART HACKER | 2,454 Posts
{quote} Apart from the yes or no vote time and interest rates news ...this is the perfect time to be in the market. your solution is position sizing... I risk 1.2% per trade and add to the position aggressively ONLY when you are in profit. You can have 40 -100 pip stop loss and still risk the same 1.2%. Also its been proven that any system could have up to 22 straight losses according to the laws of probability, so you need to pull back sizes as you are losing and increase them when winning. The only reason to step back is if you having external...
That 4x guy, he's just a natural at this pair from hail. I do better with the more input the better...., thanks.
- #14,488
- Edited 10:54pm Sep 13, 2014 8:06pm | Edited 10:54pm
- Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Trader | 2,582 Posts
Next up there is still resistance at 174.8~175, then 175.25 ~ 175.4.
Above 175.4, there is a confluence of resistance at about 176.8/177. Over there, GJ is probably clear for at least 180.
However, should either of 175 or 177 hold, it still has the potential for either a modest retrace ( as in 38/50/61/76 ) or ...
... should 169.3 fail, it falls way back to complete the final stage of the correction.
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Essentially, I reckon that this could either be the first move up to major new highs and the whole consolidation is over, or it's the final stage of the messy part of the correction and price will eventually complete lower to around 166 in would then appear to a be rising channel , or even back into about 163 in the form of an expanding triangle (23.6 retracement 177 ~117 equals 163).
In other words, this could be the week where it continues to break up - or the correction still has time to run in what may well be a fast and furious move down to support before it climbs out. Time will tell.
Chart 1 weekly - of course this could be drawn a little differently to show that the move below 128 in December 2009 was a false break from the channel - with 177 or so now being the REAL other side of the channel.
Chart 2 daily
Chart 3 - Daily - expanding upon chart 2
Any break over 177 negates this possibilty
Above 175.4, there is a confluence of resistance at about 176.8/177. Over there, GJ is probably clear for at least 180.
However, should either of 175 or 177 hold, it still has the potential for either a modest retrace ( as in 38/50/61/76 ) or ...
... should 169.3 fail, it falls way back to complete the final stage of the correction.
-----------------------------------
Essentially, I reckon that this could either be the first move up to major new highs and the whole consolidation is over, or it's the final stage of the messy part of the correction and price will eventually complete lower to around 166 in would then appear to a be rising channel , or even back into about 163 in the form of an expanding triangle (23.6 retracement 177 ~117 equals 163).
In other words, this could be the week where it continues to break up - or the correction still has time to run in what may well be a fast and furious move down to support before it climbs out. Time will tell.
Chart 1 weekly - of course this could be drawn a little differently to show that the move below 128 in December 2009 was a false break from the channel - with 177 or so now being the REAL other side of the channel.
Chart 2 daily
Chart 3 - Daily - expanding upon chart 2
Any break over 177 negates this possibilty
- #14,489
- Edited Sep 14, 2014 2:19am Sep 13, 2014 10:54pm | Edited Sep 14, 2014 2:19am
{quote} Also its been proven that any system could have up to 22 straight losses according to the laws of probability, so you need to pull back sizes as you are losing and increase them when winning. The only reason to step back is if you having external factors like family and so forth but Volatility is your friend
Back to the topic of the G/J, it is shaping up for a bearish move soon IMO. Carney's already against raising the interest rates until spring, so I don't see it going up for much longer. It would need a strong fundamental reason for that. Some of Kuroda's recent statements have reflected a yen strengthening instead of weakening, and while some japanese data has been weaker than expected, it's maintained an overall increase instead of a decrease. Just going to keep an eye on the RSIs of all the big timeframes. Everything from the 15m to the 4h are showing overbought, and the 8h and daily are almost there as well. If it continues up to 175.00 territory (and likely beyond that), it very well could start dropping from there, and hit somewhere around 172.500 to find some support to go bull again. IF it hits those levels 175+ and 172.5, AND continues to go bearish, all bets are off IMO and just hold on to your shorts. Considering how last week's bull rush was fueled almost purely by sentiment, I'm thinking some smart money out there is targeting a big drop.
- #14,491
- Sep 14, 2014 1:12am Sep 14, 2014 1:12am
{quote} Good posting ...you anf 4xguy....I really like what you guys post for input in my strategy.... That 4x guy, he's just a natural at this pair from hail. I do better with the more input the better...., thanks.
- #14,499
- Sep 15, 2014 9:59am Sep 15, 2014 9:59am
- Joined Dec 2011 | Status: Trader | 4,013 Posts
Bailing out of my long in a few hours depending on pattern formation at current levels.....waiting to see how the daily candle forms up see tokyo, hongkong, singapore session
