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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #14,461
  • Sep 12, 2014 2:27am Sep 12, 2014 2:27am
I'm waiting to see if it will break 174.330. It's been moving sideways between that and 173.99 for hours now. If it breaks out of that, I think it will be good for a quick buck or two.
  • #14,462
  • Sep 12, 2014 4:03am Sep 12, 2014 4:03am
Quoting 4xNewGuy
I'm waiting to see if it will break 174.330. It's been moving sideways between that and 173.99 for hours now. If it breaks out of that, I think it will be good for a quick buck or two.
you may not need to wait ...we are making higher lows and it looks like a 3 bar reversal is on the way in the 15 min chart. Lucky the train came back to pick up the buy orders. I will be loading up some more bringing my risk to a total of 2.4%. I'm done for the day its 5 am here. Updates later gl
  • #14,463
  • Sep 12, 2014 4:11am Sep 12, 2014 4:11am
my 4candle strategy tells me to wait 174.36 to break and then buy. I know it may be quite late but I'm trying to stick with the rules. yesterday the same strategy gave me 50 pips.
  • #14,464
  • Sep 12, 2014 4:39am Sep 12, 2014 4:39am
Quoting timtiririm
my 4candle strategy tells me to wait 174.36 to break and then buy. I know it may be quite late but I'm trying to stick with the rules. yesterday the same strategy gave me 50 pips.
Its actually better to wait as you are doing...I just had an earlier signal that is all. I wish I could add more to the trade after the break bringing it to 3.6% risk...this set up doesn't happen to often with an ascending triangle forming especially at this time. Some Institutions are probably using this range to build up a position. I wonder what storm is coming...
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  • #14,465
  • Sep 12, 2014 5:23am Sep 12, 2014 5:23am
Quoting IveGotQuads
{quote} Its actually better to wait as you are doing...I just had an earlier signal that is all. I wish I could add more to the trade after the break bringing it to 3.6% risk...this set up doesn't happen to often with an ascending triangle forming especially at this time. Some Institutions are probably using this range to build up a position. I wonder what storm is coming... {image}
the storm is coming.. our holy grail is..we can wait and play whenever we want..
Probably the worlds best currency trader.
  • #14,466
  • Sep 12, 2014 6:05am Sep 12, 2014 6:05am
Quoting IveGotQuads
{quote} you may not need to wait ...we are making higher lows and it looks like a 3 bar reversal is on the way in the 15 min chart. Lucky the train came back to pick up the buy orders. I will be loading up some more bringing my risk to a total of 2.4%. I'm done for the day its 5 am here. Updates later gl
I've been seeing that on my chart too. Been scalping it up and down for a couple of hours now. Might put in a long. I'm not too certain though. Most times when the trend goes my way as much as it has this morning, it has a tendency of going the opposite way at a good point just to piss me off.

Low and behold, it looks like it broke the trend. Holding out to see if it hits resistance at 174.050, or 173.950. I think this might be signaling a drop. Resistance seems to be going slightly bearish now along the top. If it breaks 173.950, I think it's time to start shorting this bad boy.
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  • #14,467
  • Sep 12, 2014 6:32am Sep 12, 2014 6:32am
Wow, what a wick. Going to sit out for a bit. Something big is brewing. It's going to be either a massive long, or a massive short.
  • #14,468
  • Sep 12, 2014 6:39am Sep 12, 2014 6:39am
I'm at work checking my phone and I see those spikes , hell of a drop to get stopped out
  • #14,469
  • Sep 12, 2014 6:39am Sep 12, 2014 6:39am
Quoting 4xNewGuy
Oh boy! Broke both resistance points fast. I think the drop is on.
It looks like it's going down. I would wait until 173.61 is broken before I go short.
  • #14,470
  • Sep 12, 2014 6:42am Sep 12, 2014 6:42am
it may retest 174.16 and then go down......but it may also just reject the 173.95 level and go up.
  • #14,471
  • Sep 12, 2014 7:22am Sep 12, 2014 7:22am
Quoting timtiririm
it may retest 174.16 and then go down......but it may also just reject the 173.95 level and go up.
Dammit! Why does it have to be currency speculation, and not currency certainty!?!?
  • #14,472
  • Sep 12, 2014 7:23am Sep 12, 2014 7:23am
Quoting IveGotQuads
I'm at work checking my phone and I see those spikes , hell of a drop to get stopped out
That's what I was thinking when I saw that. A 30 pip drop. Some bank out there is happy about that one.
  • #14,473
  • Sep 12, 2014 7:39am Sep 12, 2014 7:39am
We might as well throw technical analysis out the window because it doesn't matter your trend line or Fibonacci or RSI or Elliot wave ... If the scots say yes the pound drops and if its no it may go up regardless the HFT'S will chew retailers. The ensuing gap will either destroy your account or double it as your orders and stop losses may not be honored by broker
actually there is more risk in a yes vote than a reward in a no vote
  • #14,474
  • Sep 12, 2014 8:13am Sep 12, 2014 8:13am
This past week was about the "gap". It would normally have been expected for GJ to ride the gap up to resistance at about 172.5 and then retreat.

However, it jumped into the gap channel at that point and rest is history.

The gap was wide - very wide - and here is my best take on it, with a mid point, or centre line in the rising channel. For the time being, I suspect that the channel extremes are all that matters.

One can easily see why it bounced back up an hour or so ago. Since then, it's been trying to reclaim it's position above channel centre.

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  • #14,475
  • Sep 12, 2014 1:11pm Sep 12, 2014 1:11pm
Quoting 4xNewGuy
Wow, what a wick. Going to sit out for a bit. Something big is brewing. It's going to be either a massive long, or a massive short.
She will fly 175.30-175.60 resistance or might be start of a big bull target with targets 185.32
  • #14,476
  • Sep 12, 2014 1:24pm Sep 12, 2014 1:24pm
Quoting IveGotQuads
I'm at work checking my phone and I see those spikes , hell of a drop to get stopped out
usually no stoploss usually big players stops are 30 to 60 pips stop below actual support. very volatile pair indeed but yet profitable if you master and she how she behaves...
  • #14,477
  • Sep 12, 2014 8:39pm Sep 12, 2014 8:39pm
A lot of news ahead this coming week. Kuroda's having an actual talk with business leaders, and tons of GBP news over the course of the week, leading up to the scottish vote.

Wow, I honestly did not expect my first month trading to have this kind of insane action happening. I think I'm going to step back for a bit, and wait for the N/J to drop to support and go long on that one. If I'm not careful, this damn pair could suck the life out of my account.
  • #14,478
  • Sep 12, 2014 8:42pm Sep 12, 2014 8:42pm
Quoting 4xNewGuy
A lot of news ahead this coming week. Kuroda's having an actual talk with business leaders, and tons of GBP news over the course of the week, leading up to the scottish vote. Wow, I honestly did not expect my first month trading to have this kind of insane action happening. I think I'm going to step back for a bit, and wait for the N/J to drop to support and go long on that one. If I'm not careful, this damn pair could suck the life out of my account.
cool...find a way to use 7 pip stops....like the floor traders
  • #14,479
  • Sep 12, 2014 10:20pm Sep 12, 2014 10:20pm
Quoting Gbp/jpy
{quote} cool...find a way to use 7 pip stops....like the floor traders
One thing at a time man.

Just getting my feet wet with trends and PA right now for live trading. Still going to demo other methods, but one thing at a time for now.

A 400 pip week out of left field is nothing to shake a stick at. I'll get back in on this pair when more certainty settles in. The N/J has treated me well. It's almost hit support on the 4H, and holding a long or two for a week or two yields some very nice interest as well.
  • #14,480
  • Sep 13, 2014 7:59am Sep 13, 2014 7:59am
Quoting 4xNewGuy
A lot of news ahead this coming week. Kuroda's having an actual talk with business leaders, and tons of GBP news over the course of the week, leading up to the scottish vote. Wow, I honestly did not expect my first month trading to have this kind of insane action happening. I think I'm going to step back for a bit, and wait for the N/J to drop to support and go long on that one. If I'm not careful, this damn pair could suck the life out of my account.
Apart from the yes or no vote time and interest rates news ...this is the perfect time to be in the market. your solution is position sizing... I risk 1.2% per trade and add to the position aggressively ONLY when you are in profit. You can have 40 -100 pip stop loss and still risk the same 1.2%. Also its been proven that any system could have up to 22 straight losses according to the laws of probability, so you need to pull back sizes as you are losing and increase them when winning. The only reason to step back is if you having external factors like family and so forth but Volatility is your friend good luck
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