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USD/RUB

  • #41
  • Sep 11, 2014 2:59pm Sep 11, 2014 2:59pm
i don't think that usd/rub go down soon... EU and US want impose sanctions for the russia's financial, energy and defense sectors...tomorrow we go 38 / 38.5..
  • #42
  • Sep 11, 2014 3:02pm Sep 11, 2014 3:02pm
Quoting surfeur
i don't think that usd/rub go down soon... EU and US want impose sanctions for the russia's financial, energy and defense sectors...tomorrow we go 38 / 38.5..
look again
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  • #43
  • Sep 11, 2014 5:38pm Sep 11, 2014 5:38pm
I would exercise some caution here. With Eurozone sanctions just rolling out (I think today or tomorrow), there could be significant upward movement going forward, and the RCB has stated it will not intervene in the currency at this level (one never knows, though; they might do an about face on that on an emergency basis).

That being said, this is the level from which I shorted previously on a calculated risk basis (< .5 x equity position) with the notion that I would add microscopic legs to the position should price move upward in light of the positive swap on the short side (which is the short's main attraction) and then exit when the net position for all the legs was positive.

While the pair is at or near an all-time high, some kind of resolution of the situation in Ukraine would arguably send the pair tumbling ... . The beginning of the Crimean annexation, after all, was in late February, at which time the pair was around 35 ... , and there is a lot of air between here and there, and it has been as low as 33.75 since then ... . On the other hand, a resolution of the crisis, while at times looking promising, has fallen apart repeatedly.

So tempting ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #44
  • Sep 12, 2014 7:19am Sep 12, 2014 7:19am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
I would exercise some caution here. With Eurozone sanctions just rolling out (I think today or tomorrow), there could be significant upward movement going forward, and the RCB has stated it will not intervene in the currency at this level (one never knows, though; they might do an about face on that on an emergency basis). That being said, this is the level from which I shorted previously on a calculated risk basis (< .5 x equity position) with the notion that I would add microscopic legs to the position should price move upward in light of the...
Okay this you tempting..
  • #45
  • Sep 12, 2014 7:20am Sep 12, 2014 7:20am
Quoting openyoureyes
{quote} look again {image}
Where
  • #46
  • Sep 12, 2014 10:18am Sep 12, 2014 10:18am
hehe bear trap

update on 0.75 lot USD/RUB demo trade
just to check swaps, commissions:
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  • #47
  • Sep 12, 2014 10:30am Sep 12, 2014 10:30am
another demo trade to follow up with live account.
tempting R:R

SL: 150 pips
TP1: 450 pips
TP2: 700 pips
TP3: 1150 pips
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  • #48
  • Sep 12, 2014 6:20pm Sep 12, 2014 6:20pm
Quoting openyoureyes
another demo trade to follow up with live account. tempting R:R SL: 150 pips TP1: 450 pips TP2: 700 pips TP3: 1150 pips {image}
I'm still watching the pair ... . Not sure whether today's uptick is about Ruble weakness or about Dollar strength ... . ... But almost struck 38.00.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #49
  • Sep 12, 2014 6:25pm Sep 12, 2014 6:25pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} I'm still watching the pair ... . Not sure whether today's uptick is about Ruble weakness or about Dollar strength ... . ... But almost struck 38.00.
I'd prefer to be in the trade when and if a resolution of the Ukranian crisis is announced ... . Unfortunately, no one knows when and if that'll happen. But I have been looking at news stories on it virtually every night to try and get some glimpse of progress on that front. Naturally, the West will have to know that there will be follow through by the parties to any agreement before sanctions are lifted. But you know the market -- it'll react to an announcement that an agreement has been reached just as much it will react when sanctions are actually lifted ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #50
  • Sep 13, 2014 3:29pm Sep 13, 2014 3:29pm
This is one of my favorite long term investments.. short USD/RUB... i liked short EUR/RUB way better months ago because EURO was so obviously pumped up.

Anyways, for now it's better to be swing trading long set ups on the pair as it is in a very strong uptrend. Sometime though, in the next coming weeks/months/ maybe years? The Ruble will be one of the best long term plays. That's what all this panic is clearly setting the stage for.

It's just the way these markets work.

Maybe around 40-45? And with the 8% interest rate it's going to be even more juicy...

So personally, I'm waiting, while I lick my lips, knowing 100% (in my mind at least) that short USD/RUB will be one of the best plays in time.
  • #51
  • Sep 15, 2014 10:05am Sep 15, 2014 10:05am
38.50... next step 40 ?
  • #52
  • Sep 15, 2014 10:29am Sep 15, 2014 10:29am
I've just started stacking mini lots,
first short

U/R short : 38.37
SL: 38.45
  • #53
  • Sep 15, 2014 4:57pm Sep 15, 2014 4:57pm
Quoting openyoureyes
I've just started stacking mini lots, first short U/R short : 38.37 SL: 38.45
Popped up a bit ... . That is probably what I will start doing, as soon as I unload some other positions, one of which is a EUR/TRY short, which is also an excellent carry trade, although it gyrates quite a bit.

But I am probably going to wait after FOMC, which will affect the USD side of the equation, let it settle, and then dive in.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #54
  • Sep 15, 2014 4:59pm Sep 15, 2014 4:59pm
FXCM is currently quoting .77 on the USD/RUB short side vs. .97 on the sell side for EUR/TRY ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #55
  • Sep 15, 2014 5:03pm Sep 15, 2014 5:03pm
best part about USDRUB, the carry... so long as the price is under the green line when you close the trade, you make profit. In the long run, you ain't beating carry.
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  • #56
  • Sep 15, 2014 5:17pm Sep 15, 2014 5:17pm
Quoting Aws1962
best part about USDRUB, the carry... so long as the price is under the green line when you close the trade, you make profit. In the long run, you ain't beating carry. {image}
Interesting chart ... .

Here's the daily with Fibs thrown in ... . The next Fib stop would be the 1.272 at about 38.63:

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The technicals still support a long, with the drawback being the onerously negative swap ... , so I am going to patiently wait for a better short opportunity. Fundamentals support continued dollar strength in light of tightening/tapering and continued Ruble weakness as long as the Ukrainian crisis remains unresolved (absent an intervention from the RCB).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #57
  • Sep 16, 2014 1:35am Sep 16, 2014 1:35am
This pair is really shooting up now. Something extremely serious must have happened? Is the "ceasefire" over?
Current price: 38.80496
  • #58
  • Edited 2:35am Sep 16, 2014 2:17am | Edited 2:35am
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29211344

"In November, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians took to the streets to protest against then President Viktor Yanukovych's abrupt decision to cancel the agreement's original planned signing."

They have now agreed with EU association. Plus 1300 Nato soldiers "training" in the west Ukraine. Pretty sure they will go in if it escalates again.
  • #59
  • Sep 16, 2014 5:05am Sep 16, 2014 5:05am
Some pullback of USD at last...

I'll wait after FOMC for more shorts.
  • #60
  • Sep 16, 2014 8:53am Sep 16, 2014 8:53am
Sanctions begin to bite into Ruble value ... . http://www.bbc.com/news/business-29222192

But there is also this -- the Ukrainian Parliament voted to grant certain areas in the East of the country self-rule, as well as afford rebels amnesty, which would arguably ease tensions. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29220885

My guess is that's it's going to kind of be a yo-yo for a bit, but would like it to fall into a range ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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