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AUD/USD

  • #84,721
  • Sep 11, 2014 10:47pm Sep 11, 2014 10:47pm
very strong bearish weekly candle (300 pips +/-)
i would expect a couple more red weekly bars.

if price go up to 92 early next week.. would be a great chance to enter short position IMO..

levels to watch
.89
.867
.83
.81

watch out for the H&S
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1410493177

Or inv H&S if you are a bull
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1410493250

have fun trading
all comments are welcome
  • #84,722
  • Sep 12, 2014 2:03am Sep 12, 2014 2:03am
Good Morning !

Today's S/R Levels on MT4 Templates

EURO
CABLE
AUDUSD
EURJPY
S&P 500
GOLD

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...23#post7734323

EURO PINK
CABLE PINK
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #84,723
  • Sep 12, 2014 2:12am Sep 12, 2014 2:12am
AUDUSD may find Support at the bottom of the weekly kumo clould.
If not Aussie is going lower, might retest $0.8669
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"W. D. Gann said that time is the most important factor among all things."
  • #84,724
  • Sep 12, 2014 2:23am Sep 12, 2014 2:23am
Mate enjoy your insight appreciated have a great week end .

Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Amazing how there are still people here betting against the dollar bulls... betting on the AUDUSD to bounce before AUDUSD completes its swinglow after breaking out 0.92 is suicidal. Its swing low completion will occure around at 0.90 (psych level) and 0.89 (recent swing low's Low), and possibly 0.87 (for US dollar bullish pundits). Please. look at a larger horizon and dont make a trade entry until you seen reactions in key levels. interpret the reaction if it is a breakout or not. if its a breakout downwards, in a downtrend.... thats a bearish...
  • #84,725
  • Sep 12, 2014 2:55am Sep 12, 2014 2:55am
Quoting USDollar
AUDUSD may find Support at the bottom of the weekly kumo clould. If not Aussie is going lower, might retest $0.8669
More like FOG to me
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #84,726
  • Sep 12, 2014 3:02am Sep 12, 2014 3:02am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} when market is in uptrend. its great to buy when its oversold and price still above trend..... but selling something thats in an uptrend thats overbought does not guarantee it will fall down.... you would end up holding it as the loss continues to pile and pile and pile until one day a market correction makes it come back down just for you to only break even.... If US equity markets like Nasdaq, S&P were tradable assets, Short sellers would have had a very very bad time.... US equities have been in a long up trend since forever.... and short...
Nicely stated FXT, thats why traders scaling in, martingaling is a great strategy IMO, but, still requires chart reading correctly, to not fall into the wrong side and lose thousands and thousands of pips. Even a huge account will start wittle down.. like someone who keeps shorting s&p from a year ago..
  • #84,727
  • Sep 12, 2014 4:36am Sep 12, 2014 4:36am
nice
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #84,728
  • Sep 12, 2014 4:39am Sep 12, 2014 4:39am
Quoting Dano12
nice {image}
sorry are your charts saying go long or short?
  • #84,729
  • Sep 12, 2014 5:09am Sep 12, 2014 5:09am
Quoting oztrader79
{quote} sorry are your charts saying go long or short?

close short and waiting,
USDCore Retail Sales m/m0.2%0.1%
USDRetail Sales m/m0.3%0.0%
USDImport Prices m/m-0.8%-0.2%
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment83.282.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audh1.gif Size: 117 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aud4.gif Size: 142 KB
  • #84,730
  • Sep 12, 2014 5:35am Sep 12, 2014 5:35am
aud is possible eyeing on 0.9000. After US news released and may more plunged around 0.8955
  • #84,731
  • Sep 12, 2014 7:14am Sep 12, 2014 7:14am
Still remain on track, Analysis Figure 2 days ago, the target down 0.86xx
estimated time of 3 weeks, calculated from 2 days ago
Hopefully Helpful
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD DAILY.PNG Size: 95 KB
  • #84,732
  • Sep 12, 2014 9:36am Sep 12, 2014 9:36am
Quoting syamfajar99
Still remain on track, Analysis Figure 2 days ago, the target down 0.86xx estimated time of 3 weeks, calculated from 2 days ago Hopefully Helpful {image}
Made a big jump up, Do you think it will go back?
I closed the short I opened yesterday with +26pips, and opened another short after its start going down
I'm tired of making many samll GREEN pips, then one BIG red wash them all.
  • #84,733
  • Sep 12, 2014 10:02am Sep 12, 2014 10:02am
Quoting milano
{quote} Made a big jump up, Do you think it will go back? I closed the short I opened yesterday with +26pips, and opened another short after its start going down

Indeed Need Mental Strength if you want to hold a position that is somewhat longer
Sometimes the price will be contrary to our analysis, although it was only for a moment but with Mentally strong, it certainly was not a problem
  • #84,734
  • Sep 12, 2014 1:37pm Sep 12, 2014 1:37pm
Quoting Zircon
{quote} But 0.90300 on the table?

friendly pair,Good enough!.
If skills could be acquired by watching, every dog would be a butcher. Turk
  • #84,735
  • Sep 12, 2014 8:20pm Sep 12, 2014 8:20pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} when market is in uptrend. its great to buy when its oversold and price still above trend..... but selling something thats in an uptrend thats overbought does not guarantee it will fall down.... you would end up holding it as the loss continues to pile and pile and pile until one day a market correction makes it come back down just for you to only break even.... If US equity markets like Nasdaq, S&P were tradable assets, Short sellers would have had a very very bad time.... US equities have been in a long up trend since forever.... and short...
Hi There,
I agree with you on the AUD being in a downtrend now. I had a long activated and SLed as per my previous chart. I was also long on GU based on the theory of gap trading which is now TPed and looking for short entries below 1.6280.

In my opinion, S&P and DJ have been pushed up because of easy money pouring in through different versions of QE. This as you said is being scaled back, shortage of flow of money in the markets, which in turn will bring in the technical signs of Pull back. If you have a look most of the markets have been showing a Divergence on Monthly and Weekly charts. These have been negated by fundamentals and QEs ( I classify all the LTROs, Bonds and Asset Purchasing under this term for simplicity) in the past. With less money being pumped into the markets, sell off will kick off in the markets. This in conjunction with rate increase ( if it happens) will fuel market downturn. You will see what I mean in the following chart.

However, we have two things to consider here as FX traders. One is that will we go back to the days when Risk Off day will be good for USD? Which means sell off of risk currencies ( Mainly AUD and CAD). Or will it be that the USD will also drop as a result of capital flow out of markets. Either way, AUD will push down lower to Steven's target rage of .85- .88 ( IMHO). There will be some up beat pushes and hopefully those who are long can get out with lesser pain before they get margin calls.

As I use a mixture of Technical, Fundamental and Astrological aspects in my trading and have followed all the Lunar Eclipses and its effects on the markets over the past 20 years, the next cycle of down fall ( astrologically) falls on 8th October 2014 ( Lunar Eclipse) which will have a sizable effect on the markets. This together with fundamentals discussed above as well as Geo-Political factors governing now in Europe and Middle East, together with Technical issues of Weekly and Monthly Divergence and rejection of 255 FE Fib level, points to the fact that we are in for a correction in the markets. Astrologically( in most cases in the past), Effect of Lunar Eclipses normally start 2 Moon phases prior. Which is say 2 weeks but will last for a while. Lets hope the down fall is not that bad.

I could be wrong in my analysis, as I don't think there is a 100% sure trade out there, but this is what I think and I would love to see different points of view.

Take care.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #84,736
  • Sep 12, 2014 10:07pm Sep 12, 2014 10:07pm
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
I think another crack at .94 is on the cards this session based on poor nfp friday and good China trade balance today. If it can hold above .94 I believe we will be trading above .9500 by the end of the week with an attempt on .96 before the month is out
I think I should go back to the Euro where things make sense. This pair is gonna clean me out. Im Aussie so I thought it made sense to trade my own currency but Ive been wrong on every turn since and I dont know why
BTC Return This Year: na
  • #84,737
  • Sep 12, 2014 10:54pm Sep 12, 2014 10:54pm
gbp/aud has gone up too many pips this week. largest weekly move since 2010. nearly 800 pips candle.

on the weekly chart, its still in a downtrend channel from 1.90 region top.

it remains to be seen whether its a retracement or a reversal of trend back to the year high
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUDWeekly.png Size: 82 KB
  • #84,738
  • Sep 13, 2014 1:19am Sep 13, 2014 1:19am
Quoting tradoholic
{quote} Hi There, I agree with you on the AUD being in a downtrend now. I had a long activated and SLed as per my previous chart. I was also long on GU based on the theory of gap trading which is now TPed and looking for short entries below 1.6280. In my opinion, S&P and DJ have been pushed up because of easy money pouring in through different versions of QE. This as you said is being scaled back, shortage of flow of money in the markets, which in turn will bring in the technical signs of Pull back. If you have a look most of the markets have been...
nice views
one thing i can tell u is this
with everything financial,
there are primarily 2 markets

the money market (cash and depository notes) and the securities market (equities and fixed income)

in US' case, with the fed raising interest rates, we will see the securities market making a correction.
why? Well as interest rates rise
cost of borrowing money starts to rise, ie the value of money is getting expensive... Sooo businesses will begin to feel squeezed in their cash flow as it gets expensive to borrow, a lot of business operate on borrowed money. Like letter of credit operations for trade settlements and also long term business loans.
now with them feeling squeezed, they will start to show signs of weakness or under performance, and this will see sizable corrective effects in the equities and fixed income markets
as we can see us equity overpriced and s&p feeling topping out as it finds difficult to break 2000, fixed income ie bonds and senior suborndinated loan notes are seeing price falls and yields rise....

So where are all the security market money leaving to.... Well.... Into the money market...
ppl staring to cash in their equity and bond investments and started putting money in banks and purchasing bank depository notes.... As interest rates are about to increase....

now when we talk about FX.... Especially the AUDUSD... Its all a matter of which economy is going to raise their interest rates first? The RBA or the FED...
my guess is the fed and the fx flows recently is suggesting the same...
fundamentally australia? Growth is below their estimated average and will be like this for atleast 1-2 years... What the australians are facing is also a materialized bubble in their housing market
reason why i say its materialized is because past few months we begin to see west australia housing defaulting on mortgages.
now with this in mind the RBA really doesnt have much wiggle room or guts to raise interest rates, because if the west australia default happens when rba hasnt even raised interest rates... Theres fear that raising interest rates would potentially lead to a national wide phenomenon of defaulting mortgages similar to how us suffered as detroit default it spreaded....

so australia is looking for data to suggest that ppl can afford a rise in mortgage payments as interest rates increaseso they are looking at australia employment. Thursday's data was encouraging with auch a big rosy number of jobs added in australia, but its not good enough because its primarilly part-time job, you cant finance a 25 year mortgage let alone a minimum 5 year mortgage with part time jobs that usually lasts about 1-3 months....

ps. Not a big fan of gap trading
if you shorted usdjpy hoping itll close the gaps aroumd 85 and 90 after abe's announcement of easing... Youd be inlots of pain....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #84,739
  • Sep 13, 2014 1:21am Sep 13, 2014 1:21am
Quoting Halba
gbp/aud has gone up too many pips this week. largest weekly move since 2010. nearly 800 pips candle. on the weekly chart, its still in a downtrend channel from 1.90 region top. it remains to be seen whether its a retracement or a reversal of trend back to the year high {image}
Now aud is a non factor
should look to UK to see if scotland referendum is gona be a yes or no result
if its yes, expect continued downtrend, but if no to independence, expect theheavy pressure to the topside and potentially a breakout.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #84,740
  • Sep 13, 2014 5:50am Sep 13, 2014 5:50am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} .....there are primarily 2 markets the money market (cash and depository notes) and the securities market (equities and fixed income) in US' case, with the fed raising interest rates, we will see the securities market making a correction. why? Well as interest rates rise cost of borrowing money starts to rise, ie the value of money is getting expensive...
Great post.
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