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AUD/USD

  • #84,661
  • Sep 11, 2014 1:29am Sep 11, 2014 1:29am
Quoting SydneyGuru
{quote} Who predicted much better figures in Monday ? with this figures and inflation 3.5% and higher today US unemployment ... plus Friday very sever sun storm !!! - rocket launched ! soon 0.95000
can you explain why we are at 0.9140 again? where is 0.95?
As Above, So Below
  • #84,662
  • Sep 11, 2014 1:53am Sep 11, 2014 1:53am
Almost 100 pip drop again..nice move.Sadly I closed my short at 0.9172.
  • #84,663
  • Sep 11, 2014 1:54am Sep 11, 2014 1:54am
Possible of a double bottom forming, look out for divergence in downward strength.

Just stating the possibility.
  • #84,664
  • Sep 11, 2014 2:35am Sep 11, 2014 2:35am
Re: US unemployment claims data

if this comes in better than forecast I'm assuming this is an indication of a strengthening us economy and therefore further decline in aud/usd.

Is the short position a logical move here? Any thoughts?
  • #84,665
  • Sep 11, 2014 2:48am Sep 11, 2014 2:48am
Quoting tashkent
{quote} can you explain why we are at 0.9140 again? where is 0.95?
why i have always kept this sentence in my mind.
"Never bet against a raging dollar bull"

theres a reason behind this sentence....
US Dollar Flow is multiples larger than AUD, so when theres a sell off in AUDUSD, its usually a very quick deep sloping down move....

Also, people here have got to learn how to interpret data... yea so AUD had a better than expected number doesnt mean AUD would necessarily Gain against the USD..... especially when USD's imminent rate hike is a limitation of money supply and when US reduces supply of money, value of US money increases....
a simple data release from AUD doesnt negate that effect..... if anything... only causes a consolidation at best....
also today's data big surprise means big misrepresentation... people ought to dig down a bit and see how australian employment change is measured.... increase in part time jobs is not AUD positive in the long term.... needs increase in full-time jobs... it would be a better measure if Employment change is ONLY looking at Full time employment.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #84,666
  • Sep 11, 2014 2:56am Sep 11, 2014 2:56am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} why i have always kept this sentence in my mind. "Never bet against a raging dollar bull" theres a reason behind this sentence.... US Dollar Flow is multiples larger than AUD, so when theres a sell off in AUDUSD, its usually a very quick deep sloping down move.... Also, people here have got to learn how to interpret data... yea so AUD had a better than expected number doesnt mean AUD would necessarily Gain against the USD..... especially when USD's imminent rate hike is a limitation of money supply and when US reduces supply of money, value...
thank you.
these gurus are even more confusing than the market
As Above, So Below
  • #84,667
  • Sep 11, 2014 2:58am Sep 11, 2014 2:58am
Quoting tashkent
{quote} thank you. these gurus are even more confusing than the market
Where do gurus originate?
well India... thats why india is still a "Developing" country rather than "Developed"

in reality.... it means people who claim they're Guru... needs to "Grow up" as its evident they're not "Grown men".

i better leave before i piss these "Gurus" off...

I've had my fun, time for me to get back to monitoring the markets and advise my institutional clients.
Time wasted, money wasted. thx god i make way more than $100 an hour lol... else i wouldnt have time to waste...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #84,668
  • Sep 11, 2014 3:06am Sep 11, 2014 3:06am
Quoting Alex.C
Possible of a double bottom forming, look out for divergence in downward strength. Just stating the possibility.
I agree. The numbers were very good for the Aussie off the back of down-trading to factor in the (incorrect) forecast. They are inflationary numbers (meaning a rate-rise is more likely now). Inflation is high in the bracket, but not 3.5%. More like 2.9 or 3%. Coming into the NY session I see .9156 USD. A pretty good trade when you consider the carry scenario coming up to the weekend. I don't think it will even hit a double-bottom - maybe close - I think we saw the bottom for this week at .9130, with that sharp U-turn on the 30M chart below the Bollinger.
Don't forget that 2.5% interest rates is a record low for the Aussie.

And that's just my 2 cents... but I have a small buy @ .91327 and looking to increase it on price action. Stop-loss just below the aforementioned .9130.

Happy trading.
  • #84,669
  • Sep 11, 2014 4:16am Sep 11, 2014 4:16am
Interested in seeing what happens around the .9110 level.

The 9290 - 9350s idea I mentioned previously was just that, an idea. The pair will achieve those levels again, just not sure when...

Yeh - that employment figure....it seems they're learning methods like the BS dept. in the US....

.9185 area is coming into view as a long target area as well...just watching this pair right now - not trading it - I've been on AUD short positions with GBP/AUD...just holding them patiently....looking for 1.83 there before all is said and done...
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #84,670
  • Sep 11, 2014 4:51am Sep 11, 2014 4:51am
Quoting Zircon
Niet... 0.90300 next.? maybe
may see it today? maybe
If skills could be acquired by watching, every dog would be a butcher. Turk
  • #84,671
  • Sep 11, 2014 5:09am Sep 11, 2014 5:09am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} why i have always kept this sentence in my mind. "Never bet against a raging dollar bull" theres a reason behind this sentence.... US Dollar Flow is multiples larger than AUD, so when theres a sell off in AUDUSD, its usually a very quick deep sloping down move.... Also, people here have got to learn how to interpret data... yea so AUD had a better than expected number doesnt mean AUD would necessarily Gain against the USD..... especially when USD's imminent rate hike is a limitation of money supply and when US reduces supply of money, value...



Very good analysis here, totally agreed.

Short from 0.9300, targeting 0.8950
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #84,672
  • Sep 11, 2014 6:02am Sep 11, 2014 6:02am
USD down move will be annulated any time soon.
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #84,673
  • Sep 11, 2014 6:49am Sep 11, 2014 6:49am
Quoting andoseg2
Long term view , I'm expectiong a deep downmove since the price rejected from 78.6 and also is starting forming a 123 reversal : {image}
I can't explain more simple than it is :

At the begin of the week the price was :
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: deep.png Size: 253 KB


The next scenario I think will happen at Daily/H4 , but don't be fooled to go long because M + W trends are down and you fight against the Big Money.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ddde.png Size: 45 KB
Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #84,674
  • Sep 11, 2014 7:04am Sep 11, 2014 7:04am
Imo price has to retest .918ish before heading south
  • #84,675
  • Sep 11, 2014 7:12am Sep 11, 2014 7:12am
USD has declining volume but still goes up and shake up everything else....
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #84,676
  • Sep 11, 2014 7:14am Sep 11, 2014 7:14am
i am going to buy aud now for technical bounce!! anyone with me
  • #84,677
  • Sep 11, 2014 7:23am Sep 11, 2014 7:23am
after obama's speech last night. Once troops move back in. Comdollar should start picking up
  • #84,678
  • Sep 11, 2014 7:29am Sep 11, 2014 7:29am
Quoting bodkins
after obama's speech last night. Once troops move back in. Comdollar should start picking up
"move back in" where? Whose troops?
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #84,679
  • Sep 11, 2014 7:32am Sep 11, 2014 7:32am
Well this sudden little move up (AUD) was delay to collapse, I think.
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #84,680
  • Sep 11, 2014 7:34am Sep 11, 2014 7:34am
Quoting mima
Well this sudden little move up (AUD) was delay to collapse, I think.
No i think its time to dollar get banged...!!!!! sell dollar..
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