Recent theoretical work and actual trades

Double think, double trade is double probability
Ok so if say: M5 trade is 0.8 probability not to need to look at "much" drawdown. While H1 trade is probability 0.7 not to need to look at "much" drawdown. Then if i combine the two i get a margin of error at only .06 for each position. That will do wonders for my account and Alpari will by me ice cream and pancakes every day. Kind of like Forexcube...

Double trading today:



Thats a PA analysis of the last trade i made. Thats 4 pip after the spread. Thats cool. I can buy some ice cream or what ever for that. Save it for a rainyday, i dunno?

good observations.
there are 2 types of market periods - trending and ranging. as soon as you figure out the cycle - you are on money. simple rules to trade each periods
i also welcome you to share with your ideas in my philosophy thread.
btw, you stole my signature

just joking. have fun.

I cant steal language. Neither can you Besides, its a hermetical saying. I am a hermetist. And a gnostic. And a druid. And a trader. And an avatar. And a mathematician. Poet also. Warrior aswell.

I will come to your thread and check it out.

15:07

Restate my assumptions:

1. Like euclid, i have axioms.
2. All living systems contain patterns. These patterns imerge if all relevant data is collected and graphed.
3. Mathematical formulas can be applied to assist in the recognition of these patterns. But every one has her/his own formulas to apply to make the patterns emerge. Thats why there are so many different "Patterns". Head and shoulders is a classic. But that is pretty much the same as a divergence. As meeting an S/R. As order flow. Its all one thing. One living organism, like one mind. Continous in time.

09:16

Restate my assumptions:

1. You are not the result of all those consious actions you call "you".
2. You are the result of all those events tied together, bringing it all to a nexus that you call "you".
3. The subconsious processis of the mind containt multifold more information then the consious ones.

All belief systems are self referential.
Including this one.

Including finding that elusive edge for successful trading.

My refference is my account. All other refferences are insubstantial in this context. My account is that thing that measures what i am doing and what i am not doing.

FYI: I enjoy your charts, i might learn something there. Happy trading friend!

Even though, in theory the weekend should of course upset EMA calculations. In practice it seems there are a lot of money who seem to disregard weekend data. And im thinking about the baseline. The baseline is a nice thing.

Also i need to go back to friday and study it. So thats what im going to do.

So how is Olosau beach this time of year? Is it too cold for swimming?
And also, on the west side of the island, what is this building that i circled in red?



You see, i am very interested in permaculture and how to build a permanent society. Im thinking 40 people or so at first. A society should never be bigger then the amount of people you can know. So maybe can know 200 people. Then i should not aim to build a society for more then so. The position of the communal buildings in relation to peoples living spaces is very important. The space around the building itself, also important. Can people sit and stand, talk? Maybe even lie down? How about meditation? Will there be music or talking or both or something inbetween. Every material element such as pavement or lawn affects these things.

Backward engineering MM axioms to lower margin of error
Lets assume i havea average TP of 7.
Then before i even encur any "significant" loss i allow for drawdown of 7. = (D)
But then still, if TP x 2 then also D x 2.
Also still if D x 3 then also TP x 3.
At each D, there is an average probability to get equal TP.
That probability is somewhere around .8

For instance if a place a position of TP 13, then drawdown before it even gets to a strategical decision on what to do should be 13.
Or a more practical example, i place a position of TP 31, then drawdown before it even gets to a strategical decision on what to do should be 31.
And to continue above example: At D, i take the decision to place another equal sell limit as the live position at the next S/R above that is lets say 45 pips higher up. TP for second position is only 21, because of recent PA. But regardless of this, if the first positions TP still does not seem improbable, it should be left as is.

Wow, that was the greatest trade ive made for at least... a week or so. Ultra high precision.



I just want to call my high school teachers and say: "Thats why i went off to study philosophy in 2001, to become that free of mind so i could do that."

Looking at the books...

Friday +0.65%
Today -0.23%, on account of some shitty shorts left over from friday and even before. Right now there is just one shitty short left.

Checkers and shapeshifters
Lets for the arguments sake assume there are two types of people: Checkers and shapeshifters.

Checkers are afraid of shapeshifting becuase they dont understand it and they cant control it. Some checkers are curious about shapeshifting, but they have made rules that they placed on themselves. One of the rules of the checkers is that they are not allowed to shapeshift and the reason for this rule is the inherent fear that the checkers feel when they some into contact with a shapeshifter. Checkers in general are afraid of a lot of things. To them, everything that they cant check and control, is something to fear. Checkers are often well at home in cities.

Shapeshifters change a lot, both how they think and how they look. Often they are comfortable with a physical change to compliment their mental change. Shapeshifters have no rules, but they have guidelines. Shapeshifters are often uncomfortable in the prescence of checkers. The checkers try to tell the shapeshifter what is what, but the shapeshifter most often realize this does not apply to shapeshifters. Shapeshifters are seldom afraid of anything. Shapeshifters are often well at home in nature.

+0.47% or something like that today. Considering i missed the only good chance i had today i think thats OK.
Actually, +0.3% something like that, but now i am rid of the Bad short ive been holding for 8 days.
Well money in the bank is money in the bank. No complaining there.

Simplified mathematical interface.
Removed information overload.
Ascertained Fibonacci series moving averages to function well as "trend analysis".

From yesterday morning to pre morning today, +1,4%. But also some 1.6% drawdown right now, but its dropping so it will propably be fine.

08:37 update: Now 1.3% drawdown and +0.03% profit on the day except the mornings actions.

Its sort of if drawdown is a currency less "serious" then loss, except the fact that they are in essence just as dangerous if they get to 100%. I can exchange a big drawdown for a small loss, thats OK. I might reduce total drawdown by 33% and wins by -0.3% today right now if i want too.

08:43: I did. So if i perceive this sell trade as one big thing its... let me see... +1.1% in 24 hours.
Closing down one in a loss, gives me opurtunity to get in again higher without the added possible drawdown of keeping the position.
One shitty position left. I can still close it and to SORT of good, but its still dropping in general even though it got caught on an S/R.

08:46 Nows its time for medidation in the forest.

09:47 +0.4% of total account today. One shitty short still left.