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  • #141
  • Sep 10, 2014 10:27am Sep 10, 2014 10:27am
Quoting Paracelsus
{quote} I also thought about. Until today. Lets see what happened today at LO: Going by the Rules, the first entry hit TP. If going also "reverse", we could have got another +10 pips, but only after the 5th entry. Stopping after 4th entry would have resulted in a 14 units net loss (+1 and -15). As discussed above, a 5th entry is better to be avoided at all costs as the recovery time is very long after a SL (31 TP exactly).
Agreed..but based on your last 6 weeks of live testing how often have you hit the 5th entry ? Based on what you have written you hadn't seen a losing day so far. So theoretically you would have had 2x the daily profits for the entire 6 weeks up until today (assuming you always stopped after the 4th entry). The accumulated profits along the way could easily absorb an occasional level 4 loss.
  • #142
  • Sep 10, 2014 10:30am Sep 10, 2014 10:30am
I am thinking to bring something more which is similar to our idea but before that i want to see who is willing to do manual backtest (which won't be that difficult). I am not starting any other thread, i will bring it in this thread. Who is willing?
Love for all; Hatred for none.
  • #143
  • Sep 10, 2014 10:39am Sep 10, 2014 10:39am
Quoting freundr
{quote} Agreed..but based on your last 6 weeks of live testing how often have you hit the 5th entry ? Based on what you have written you hadn't seen a losing day so far. So theoretically you would have had 2x the daily profits for the entire 6 weeks up until today (assuming you always stopped after the 4th entry). The accumulated profits along the way could easily absorb an occasional level 4 loss.
Yes, based on the past month's results it is correct. However, the sampling is very limited to make statistical conclusions. We would need at least 1000 trades worth of backtest results to get statistical significance on any of the discussed hypotheses. 1000 trades (i.e. 500 trading days) are simply too much for manual backtests and too long for manual or even automated forward tests.
  • #144
  • Sep 10, 2014 11:08am Sep 10, 2014 11:08am
Just to get it the right way...
The new entry rule says we are waiting for the close of the first M5 candle after NYO and enter in the direction of that candle?

For example, I have to pull the trigger at 08:06 est.?
  • #145
  • Sep 10, 2014 11:16am Sep 10, 2014 11:16am
Quoting Paracelsus
{quote} Yes, based on the past month's results it is correct. However, the sampling is very limited to make statistical conclusions. We would need at least 1000 trades worth of backtest results to get statistical significance on any of the discussed hypotheses. 1000 trades (i.e. 500 trading days) are simply too much for manual backtests and too long for manual or even automated forward tests.
I once used ProRealTime platform and setting/generating a backtesting strategy was somewhat straightforward.
Unfortunately (I checked) for the free version we don't have access to 5m graphs. :-(
And I don't subscribe to this anymore. I used it for the tick charts and don't use those any anylonger.
Maybe someone knows of a similar platform that allows a fast backtesting of the strategy?
  • #146
  • Sep 10, 2014 11:25am Sep 10, 2014 11:25am
Quoting Mr.Ma
Just to get it the right way... The new entry rule says we are waiting for the close of the first M5 candle after NYO and enter in the direction of that candle? For example, I have to pull the trigger at 08:06 est.?
"NY Time 08:00 close Candle" = The M5 candle which closes at 08:00 EST.
  • #147
  • Sep 10, 2014 11:39am Sep 10, 2014 11:39am
A "brainstorming" idea:

Instead of "reading the tea leaves" (i.e. the last M5 candle) before LO and NYO, we might just wait for the first 10 pips move and "go with the flow", i.e. entering in the direction of the first 10 pips move after LO and NYO.

In other words: Our NEW Level1 entry would be at the same location where our first SL and Level2 entry would be in case we guessed the direction wrong. Which happens almost 50% of the time anyway.

The advantages? We "saved" one level entry and we enter in "micro-trend" direction. This way reaching Level4 would be practically reaching Level5 (if our M5 "direction guess" were wrong), so we could "stretch" the max. entry levels to "quasi-Level5", while in practice going only for max. Level4.
  • #148
  • Sep 10, 2014 12:06pm Sep 10, 2014 12:06pm
Quoting Paracelsus
A "brainstorming" idea: Instead of "reading the tea leaves" (i.e. the last M5 candle) before LO and NYO, we might just wait for the first 10 pips move and "go with the flow", i.e. entering in the direction of the first 10 pips move after LO and NYO. In other words: Our NEW Level1 entry would be at the same location where our first SL and Level2 entry would be in case we guessed the direction wrong. Which happens almost 50% of the time anyway. The advantages? We "saved" one level entry and we enter in "micro-trend" direction. This way reaching Level4...
On the other hand we already lost one "straight +10" (case we "guessed" the right direction) on the first level and now need a 20pip move to reach TP.
Again we should at least test this.
  • #149
  • Sep 10, 2014 12:09pm Sep 10, 2014 12:09pm
"In other words: Our NEW Level1 entry would be at the same location where our first SL and Level2 entry would be in case we guessed the direction wrong. Which happens almost 50% of the time anyway."

Not to belabor my point but if the initial position is wrong 50% of the time why not open an opposite order ? Maybe modify it by opening a half size order against the direction the system indicates.

If the 5 M candle at Open indicates to go long then go long with a full size order and go short with a half size position. If the direction was correct then take the 10 TP on the long and manage the short by the same method. Even if goes to a Level 5 trade then the loss would be half of a full size position.

If the initial direction was wrong then the half size order would hit its TP and then you could manage your initial long trade with the same method.

Edit: if this is deviating too far off the OPs method and thread I will stop further suggestions.
  • #150
  • Sep 10, 2014 12:27pm Sep 10, 2014 12:27pm
Quoting freundr
"In other words: Our NEW Level1 entry would be at the same location where our first SL and Level2 entry would be in case we guessed the direction wrong. Which happens almost 50% of the time anyway." Not to belabor my point but if the initial position is wrong 50% of the time why not open an opposite order ? Maybe modify it by opening a half size order against the direction the system indicates. If the 5 M candle at Open indicates to go long then go long with a full size order and go short with a half size position. If the direction was correct then...
The whole sense of this blog is sharing ideas, i.e. "brainstorming". At least that was my impression...
  • #151
  • Sep 11, 2014 2:48am Sep 11, 2014 2:48am
last 5m candle before LO is bullish, long, TP hit only on first entry.
  • #152
  • Sep 11, 2014 3:06am Sep 11, 2014 3:06am
Quoting jackenorme
last 5m candle before LO is bullish, long, TP hit only on first entry.
LO: +10 pips (TP by 1st entry)

Not trying to divert the original strategy, but as a parallel log, I would mention the "theoretical" outcome of entering in the direction of the first 10 pips move after LO and NYO, if OK with "aahmad29". The rational is mentioned above. I will call it "LO10". If not OK, I will just delete this entry and will not update the results of this "shadow" strategy.

LO10: +10 pips (TP by 1st entry)
  • #153
  • Sep 11, 2014 3:38am Sep 11, 2014 3:38am
Quoting Paracelsus
A "brainstorming" idea: Instead of "reading the tea leaves" (i.e. the last M5 candle) before LO and NYO, we might just wait for the first 10 pips move and "go with the flow", i.e. entering in the direction of the first 10 pips move after LO and NYO. In other words: Our NEW Level1 entry would be at the same location where our first SL and Level2 entry would be in case we guessed the direction wrong. Which happens almost 50% of the time anyway. The advantages? We "saved" one level entry and we enter in "micro-trend" direction. This way reaching Level4...
So i was checking this idea on 09/10 and what happen was, LO10 will hit tp only on 4 level.. it would have saved me yesterday but the risk is the same, i believe.
I change my EA to have an option to go with the last M5 candle, so for now i'm going with that.
  • #154
  • Sep 11, 2014 4:05am Sep 11, 2014 4:05am
Quoting suicida
{quote} So i was checking this idea on 09/10 and what happen was, LO10 will hit tp only on 4 level.. it would have saved me yesterday but the risk is the same, i believe. I change my EA to have an option to go with the last M5 candle, so for now i'm going with that.
Would you consider sharing the EA? I'd love to try some backtest wit it.

Today I missed the "with previous bar" entrance. I had the 15m chart open and the previous bar was a sell. So I would have hit TP on the 4th level only.
As I was testing 3 level as max. I got hit again today. So 3 level too short, at least with my (lousy) demo account. I must change the initial risk to 0.5% and even this may be too much.
  • #155
  • Sep 11, 2014 4:06am Sep 11, 2014 4:06am
Quoting suicida
{quote} So i was checking this idea on 09/10 and what happen was, LO10 will hit tp only on 4 level.. it would have saved me yesterday but the risk is the same, i believe. I change my EA to have an option to go with the last M5 candle, so for now i'm going with that.
@suicida

Having the EA already, would you mind running a few months of backtest with this new setting (i.e. going with the last M5 candle) and share the results here?
  • #156
  • Edited 5:20am Sep 11, 2014 4:15am | Edited 5:20am
Quoting oldflatop
{quote} Would you consider sharing the EA? I'd love to try some backtest wit it. Today I missed the "with previous bar" entrance. I had the 15m chart open and the previous bar was a sell. So I would have hit TP on the 4th level only. As I was testing 3 level as max. I got hit again today. So 3 level too short, at least with my (lousy) demo account. I must change the initial risk to 0.5% and even this may be too much.
Strange... You should have hit TP latest with 2nd entry, even if going in the "wrong direction" with M15.

As the below screenshot shows: going "long" after the first 10 pips market move would have been profitable with 1st entry, too.

BLUE: going with M5 (master strategy)
YELLOW: going against M5 (by "mistake")
PURPLE: "LO10", i.e. entering with first 10 pip move ("brainstorming")

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: LO 0911.jpg Size: 418 KB
  • #157
  • Sep 11, 2014 7:03am Sep 11, 2014 7:03am
entered long at 1.29271
lets see where the journey is goin to

at least the US news in 26 min will move the market
  • #158
  • Sep 11, 2014 7:08am Sep 11, 2014 7:08am
Quoting Mr.Ma
entered long at 1.29271 lets see where the journey is goin to at least the US news in 26 min will move the market
I am with you...
  • #159
  • Sep 11, 2014 7:29am Sep 11, 2014 7:29am
Quoting Paracelsus
{quote} Strange... You should have hit TP latest with 2nd entry, even if going in the "wrong direction" with M15. As the below screenshot shows: going "long" after the first 10 pips market move would have been profitable with 1st entry, too. BLUE: going with M5 (master strategy) YELLOW: going against M5 (by "mistake") PURPLE: "LO10", i.e. entering with first 10 pip move ("brainstorming") {image}
We'll I do use 12pips as TP, but the problem is the account, which at that time was giving me 4pip spread.
I should have used an ECN demo account. Which is in fact my broker of the live accounts, but I don't like to have the same MT4 for demo and live.
But I will start tomorrow with a new ECN demo on this strategy.
Here are my LO trades:
56183636 2014.09.11 09:00:01 sell 1.00 eurusd 1.2909 1.2919 1.2897 2014.09.11 09:25:17 1.2919 -100.00
56183842 2014.09.11 09:25:17 buy 2.00 eurusd 1.2919 1.2909 1.2931 2014.09.11 09:31:33 1.2909 -200.00
56184402 2014.09.11 09:31:33 sell 4.00 eurusd 1.2909 1.2919 1.2897 2014.09.11 09:38:31 1.2919 -400.00
  • #160
  • Sep 11, 2014 7:36am Sep 11, 2014 7:36am
first shot, one goal

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_2014-09-11.png Size: 30 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU-NYO-2014.09.11.png Size: 45 KB
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