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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #10,341
  • Sep 9, 2014 5:03am Sep 9, 2014 5:03am
Another update on the AUD/JPY trade:

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Overnight (for me), the bulls made their presence known by pushing price up to structure (98.67); however, it was promptly enforced by the bears. The bullish momentum leading into this area has me anticipating a possible breakdown in my position. We will see.
  • #10,342
  • Sep 9, 2014 6:47am Sep 9, 2014 6:47am
Quoting fxyogi17
{quote} Hi Mack, Thanks for the thorough response, its responses like those that really add to the quality of the thread. I am just learning so unfortunately I cannot reciprocate, but I will take in account your feedback thanks!!
No worries, glad to help
  • #10,343
  • Sep 9, 2014 9:21am Sep 9, 2014 9:21am
Update on the AUD/JPY. Based on the bearish momentum, I moved my TP from the completion of the AB=CD, to the 127 ext of AB. Switched to my other trade and got busy doing a couple of other things. Long story short, bearish momentum is strong and I got taken out at my revised TP for a profit of 46 pips.

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  • #10,344
  • Sep 9, 2014 9:32am Sep 9, 2014 9:32am
Currently trading the EUR/USD 5M TF right now. Long term order flow is bearish; however, the bulls have asserted themselves in the short term. Saw significant bearish momentum and decided enter the trade once I saw a few candles fail to surpass the 50% retracement of AB. As I'm writing this, the bulls are gaining some strength. Looking like they will achieve the completion of the minor abcd pattern, which coincides with a 61% retracement of the primary ABCD.

*Update*

Got stopped out. The bullish momentum increased significantly, blowing right through my stop. Lost 13 pips on that trade. Now looking at a potential ABCD to the upside.

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  • #10,345
  • Sep 9, 2014 9:56am Sep 9, 2014 9:56am
On the EUR/USD 5M TF chart, a lot of bullish momentum heading into the PRZ. Some confluence there: 1) completion of ABCD; 2) 127 ext of AB; 3) 138 ext of BC. However, caution is advised if considering this trade. I would like to see the bullish momentum weaken prior to entering. Thoughts?

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  • #10,346
  • Sep 9, 2014 10:08am Sep 9, 2014 10:08am
Update on EUR/USD...into the PRZ. Now to see how price reacts. I am expecting a 61-78% pullback on the most recent impulse leg and then for price to advance, once again, into the PRZ. If it reaches the PRZ a second time, I will probably enter the trade.

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  • #10,347
  • Sep 9, 2014 10:21am Sep 9, 2014 10:21am
**Correction**

EUR/USD update. Honing in on an entry in the PRZ. Looks like the completion of the minor ab=cd not abcd coincides with the 161 ext of BC and a supply zone. That's what I'm keeping my eye out for.

Getting a good pullback on weaker projections. This is to be expected. Is it a full blown reversal? I don't think so. The bullish momentum leading into the PRZ suggests otherwise. We'll see.

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  • #10,348
  • Sep 9, 2014 12:21pm Sep 9, 2014 12:21pm
I think I might have missed my opportunity on the EUR/USD. I was waiting for the price to reach the 161 ext of BC, which coincides with structure; however, looks like price turned at the 138 ext of AB, which was also the completion point of a minor ab=cd. My R:R ratio, at this point, isn't sufficient to enter the trade. See below.

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  • #10,349
  • Sep 9, 2014 1:36pm Sep 9, 2014 1:36pm
EURUSD M5

Perspective :-

  1. ABCD, aggressive C sell opportunity.
  2. Price has run into structure from before, which used to be the support has now possibly turned into the resistance zone.
  3. Price has taken resistance at the structure twice but has made a NSH though.
  4. The dips are pretty steep(till1.288) when compared to the pull backs to the upside.
  5. An ABCD in the M1 has completed starting from the low at 1.28586 and completing D point exactly at the current levels. Giving us a short call.
  6. Worry is the recent support from the round number of 1.2900 in M1.

Levels :-

  1. Short entry below 1.29122.
  2. call considered void if price took off from here and never came below to trigger our trade.
  3. SL is at 1.29565 at the A point.
  4. TP1 for BE adjustment is at 1.28780 at 50% of CD leg.
  5. TP2/Final TP at 1.28271 D completion point.
  6. RR at -0.00443/0.00851.


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I follow only one person and his strategies...
  • #10,350
  • Sep 9, 2014 1:47pm Sep 9, 2014 1:47pm
Quoting chotabheem
EURUSD M5 Perspective :- ABCD, aggressive C sell opportunity. Price has run into structure from before, which used to be the support has now possibly turned into the resistance zone. Price has taken resistance at the structure twice but has made a NSH though. The dips are pretty steep(till1.288) when compared to the pull backs to the upside. An ABCD in the M1 has completed starting from the low at 1.28586 and completing D point exactly at the current levels. Giving us a short call. Worry is the recent support from the round number of 1.2900 in M1....
I guess it pays to zoom out, huh? I think your analysis is accurate. A larger ABCD could be potentially forming. Right now, we have the completion of a minor abcd pattern between the 61-78% retracement of the larger AB leg. This may be a good opportunity to for an Agg C, as you suggested. Bullish sentiment has become weak, as indicated by the weaker projections.

R:R ratio doesn't look good right now, though.
  • #10,351
  • Sep 9, 2014 1:54pm Sep 9, 2014 1:54pm
Quoting jpnavigate
{quote} I guess it pays to zoom out, huh? I think your analysis is accurate. A larger ABCD could be potentially forming. Right now, we have the completion of a minor abcd pattern between the 61-78% retracement of the larger AB leg. This may be a good opportunity to for an Agg C, as you suggested. Bullish sentiment has become weak, as indicated by the weaker projections. R:R ratio doesn't look good right now, though.
yeah, but it is pointing towards the high, not looking good. he he.
I follow only one person and his strategies...
  • #10,352
  • Sep 9, 2014 2:09pm Sep 9, 2014 2:09pm
Quoting chotabheem
{quote} yeah, but it is pointing towards the high, not looking good. he he.
Well, based on PA, I expect to see a deeper retracement from current levels. The last projection was weak. Right now, we've got some consolidation going on. It will be interesting to see which side is going to win out!
  • #10,353
  • Sep 9, 2014 2:15pm Sep 9, 2014 2:15pm
EUR/USD 5M TF is getting interesting...
  • #10,354
  • Sep 9, 2014 2:23pm Sep 9, 2014 2:23pm
EUR/USD 5M TF back into the PRZ...

*Update*

Chart looked horrible...oh, and PRZ was blown out of the water. Had a sell limit placed, entered and exited rather quickly on that up move. Ouch.

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  • #10,355
  • Sep 9, 2014 9:30pm Sep 9, 2014 9:30pm
Whew...finally made it through all 518 pages of this thread. A ton of reading, but I am very grateful for the time and effort exhibited by all. The education, alone, has been worth it. Thanks, again, to all and, especially, to Mr. Pip.

Speaking of which, any developments for the live training event?
  • #10,356
  • Sep 10, 2014 6:45am Sep 10, 2014 6:45am
Quoting jpnavigate
Whew...finally made it through all 518 pages of this thread. A ton of reading, but I am very grateful for the time and effort exhibited by all. The education, alone, has been worth it. Thanks, again, to all and, especially, to Mr. Pip. Speaking of which, any developments for the live training event?
Its not an easy task. It took me a long time to go through the thread. I commend you for your dedication. How did you make out with the EU yesterday?
  • #10,357
  • Sep 10, 2014 8:20am Sep 10, 2014 8:20am
Thanks, Mack. Didn't do so well with the EU. Set a sell limit in the PRZ. Took my eyes off of it momentarily and the price blew right through it. So, in a matter of seconds, I entered and exited the trade. Overall, lost 20 pips.

How about you? Getting to a point where you can go pro yet?
  • #10,358
  • Sep 10, 2014 8:24am Sep 10, 2014 8:24am
Looks like the EU is fighting to hang on at the RN of 1.2900. Wonder what kind of set up we'll get from this?
  • #10,359
  • Sep 10, 2014 10:03am Sep 10, 2014 10:03am
Quoting jpnavigate
Thanks, Mack. Didn't do so well with the EU. Set a sell limit in the PRZ. Took my eyes off of it momentarily and the price blew right through it. So, in a matter of seconds, I entered and exited the trade. Overall, lost 20 pips. How about you? Getting to a point where you can go pro yet?
Not even close. I won’t lie. I got the fundamentals down but still need to learn to implement them consistently. I wrote myself a checklist at the edge of my computer as a reminder. Still learning little things about Price Action and supply & demand.

My biggest hurdle is psychology. I have some nasty habits and sometimes my emotions will sabotage my trading. I'm working on it. I only just recently started growing my account. I've probable made all the mistakes you hear traders make X2 or X3. I review my mistakes consistently though so it’s clear what not to do.

Its been a tough road.
  • #10,360
  • Sep 10, 2014 4:08pm Sep 10, 2014 4:08pm
Went long on the EU earlier today (5M TF). My reasons for entering: 1) Even though the bears had gained momentum, they failed to break through the RN 1.2900...this was accompanied by a strong reaction from the bulls (the retracement almost reached 61.8%) - I thought this was the beginning of an AB leg; 2) at my entry point, the retracement from the bullish reaction (BC) ran into a demand zone; this demand zone coincided with the 50% fib; a nice bullish hammer formed at this level and the bulls finished the period closing at the top of the move. I thought the bulls were going to take price higher; however, the next candle (sort of a spinning top) suggested there was more movement to the downside in store. Which...is exactly what happened. Every time the bulls tried to take the price higher, the bears countered with strength. Long story short, I was on the wrong side of this trade. In fact, I believe I might have been on the opposite side of Mr. Pip's trading efforts today! I welcome any criticism of my analysis.

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