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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #14,421
  • Sep 10, 2014 2:15am Sep 10, 2014 2:15am
Quoting Mpt
The gap may appear closed ... but it would have to get to 172 to close what is a 40 pip wide gap. It remains.
Most likely 172.70/80 zone ....i remember that strong resistance/ support from late last year.
  • #14,422
  • Sep 10, 2014 2:20am Sep 10, 2014 2:20am
Just look at this chart ....how easy it is to trade . More pips than Gbp/usd less volatile than Gbp/Nzd and the thread is on life support
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  • #14,423
  • Edited 3:16am Sep 10, 2014 2:33am | Edited 3:16am
​​The gap closes at about 172.5. Then it probably begins a decent retrace.

Assuming it even gets there. There have been SO many false breaks over the last week or two.
  • #14,424
  • Sep 10, 2014 2:37am Sep 10, 2014 2:37am
Quoting IveGotQuads
{quote} 1. Unrest in Ukraine and Middle East will increase demand for the safest assets. 2. Once we break 170 the next floor is @ 165. 3. The bond market is always right. Difference between 2 yr yields in the US and Germany expanded to 62 basis points, that's the widest since April 2007. when you factor in the US Fed's next move is not easing rates but raising rates.
With the way the 170 zone was rejected....I think the probability of this going down to the weekly 38 fib barring something fundamentally drastic happens is now unlikely. Workingforex did say he saw this @ 175 by years end and its seems more probable than 165. we shall see what happens @ 172.80 and 174.80 zones. gl and happy pip hunting
  • #14,425
  • Sep 10, 2014 3:22am Sep 10, 2014 3:22am
If it wants to collapse though, there is a big hole in support right now at 170.6. UJ still pushes up, but GU tried a reversal and has failed
  • #14,426
  • Sep 10, 2014 4:11am Sep 10, 2014 4:11am
extreme luck on my side.. went a bit freestyle "no strategy" applied bet.. took a 10% risk on 171.92 -SL 172.18 .. what a wonderfull down spike
hope i didnt take out to early (171.35)
Probably the worlds best currency trader.
  • #14,427
  • Sep 10, 2014 4:27am Sep 10, 2014 4:27am
I think there's still some upside to this move. A lot of traders just shorted the G/J, since it was showing that it was overbought to hell on the 15m and 1h charts.
Probably going to see a lot of big wicks on the daily candles this week. Probably going to be a lot of wide stops and small takes for me.
  • #14,428
  • Sep 10, 2014 5:07am Sep 10, 2014 5:07am
Basically, for the last week, if you determine that resistance is at a certain point, it breaks over it and you say wtf. Then it falls back under it again, retests it and drops again. Hence my comment about "false breaks". 171.6/7 was one such point.
  • #14,429
  • Sep 10, 2014 5:58am Sep 10, 2014 5:58am
Phew. What a ride! Drops a bunch, then moves back up the same. Took a bunch going long on a few small positions, and took only a small loss on a poorly positioned short. Time to quit while I'm ahead, and get some sleep.
  • #14,430
  • Edited 7:27pm Sep 10, 2014 7:09pm | Edited 7:27pm
Quoting 4xNewGuy
I think there's still some upside to this move. A lot of traders just shorted the G/J, since it was showing that it was overbought to hell on the 15m and 1h charts. Probably going to see a lot of big wicks on the daily candles this week. Probably going to be a lot of wide stops and small takes for me.
Yep....good eye there....
Did you guys know once the P A travels more than 333 pips, tell me.....

This giveaway run from Tokyo Sunday nite.....went precisely 400 pips. My buddy has a trained monkey that he claims can catch these easy Tokyo spikes.

How 'bout that eur aud, baby.....Ayatollayuso....
  • #14,431
  • Sep 10, 2014 8:29pm Sep 10, 2014 8:29pm
There is 3 ways of looking at this now, either way it comes back to that pull back we want to see for upside confirmation. I will be keeping an eye out for price action that leads me to believe the move up is valid. Fundamental reasons being at play here can move this either way according to the vote. Position sizing might be the thin line between huge profits or huge loss. gl guys see you in Frankfurt.
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  • #14,432
  • Edited 9:13pm Sep 10, 2014 8:32pm | Edited 9:13pm
It appears to be possibly failing at the top of a (yet again) diamond shaped formation. Should it fall out of 172.4, then it revisits the formation centre (apex) at 171.7/9. The action at that point would determine whether it's really bullish (to new highs) or will soon drop out of 169.4 and head down (probably to at least 166.5)
  • #14,433
  • Edited 11:54pm Sep 10, 2014 11:03pm | Edited 11:54pm
Quoting IveGotQuads
{quote} Most likely 172.70/80 zone ....i remember that strong resistance/ support from late last year.
Looks like this zone is the new support, i've placed a buy order @ 173.34 SL 172.70 and TP @ 174.80 A little bit over 2 to 1 although had to take a massive reduction in position size to adjust my risk. Hopefully we get some action in a couple of hours.
  • #14,434
  • Sep 11, 2014 12:24am Sep 11, 2014 12:24am
Quoting IveGotQuads
{quote} Looks like this zone is the new support, i've placed a buy order @ 173.34 SL 172.70 and TP @ 174.80 A little bit over 2 to 1 although had to take a massive reduction in position size to adjust my risk. Hopefully we get some action in a couple of hours.
Looks like it just opened your trade. Now it's sitting in limbo for a bit. I decided to hedge that spot with no TP, and just going to monitor it over the next few hours to see which one's the dud. Kind of hoping it drops so it takes out my last small short I have sitting around 172.400, but even if it goes up another hundred pips or so, no big deal. Still plenty of equity to cover it, and there's always the strong prospect of a drop back down to that level sometime next week or the week after.

I got to admit though, that freaking gap to start the week sure woke up some kind of beast in this pair for sure.
  • #14,435
  • Sep 11, 2014 2:58am Sep 11, 2014 2:58am
Aaaand it's off!
  • #14,436
  • Sep 11, 2014 4:06am Sep 11, 2014 4:06am
Quoting 4xNewGuy
{quote} Looks like it just opened your trade. Now it's sitting in limbo for a bit. I decided to hedge that spot with no TP, and just going to monitor it over the next few hours to see which one's the dud. Kind of hoping it drops so it takes out my last small short I have sitting around 172.400, but even if it goes up another hundred pips or so, no big deal. Still plenty of equity to cover it, and there's always the strong prospect of a drop back down to that level sometime next week or the week after. I got to admit though, that freaking gap to...
That bearish pin bar isn't on a zone and it is smaller than the 30 pip bullish candle so the probability is still on the bulls for now ...added another buy order @ 173.73 and calling it a day for me. The market does the rest. Gl in your trade, and yeah next week we might be singing a different tune as we may find more sellers than buyers.
  • #14,437
  • Sep 11, 2014 6:20am Sep 11, 2014 6:20am
Quoting IveGotQuads
{quote} That bearish pin bar isn't on a zone and it is smaller than the 30 pip bullish candle so the probability is still on the bulls for now ...added another buy order @ 173.73 and calling it a day for me. The market does the rest. Gl in your trade, and yeah next week we might be singing a different tune as we may find more sellers than buyers.
Yup, it went up. Looked like it was considering how it was wedging on the 15m, but it's the geppy, it's nuts. But for sure, there won't be a problem finding people selling next week. Who knows? Depending on how fast it bulls right now, some might start shorting tomorrow. But I'm not too concerned. I've done plenty of trading with the geppy in my demo days. It will shoot in one direction, but as long as I'm not shorting at the bottom of a big move, a week or so later, it comes back unless some strong fundamental changes it (which isn't likely, since Carney said no raise on interest until spring). Not to mention almost every chart is screaming over-bought right now. Who knows? Maybe Kuroda will give me an early christmas present tomorrow and say the yen is strengthening.

Have a good one man. Hope the pips treat you right.
  • #14,438
  • Sep 11, 2014 12:42pm Sep 11, 2014 12:42pm
Cool reading you guys here....
The GBP/JPY is a fundamental gauge globally....meaning it will do medium sized surprises with the world sitiashun....ha...

Other than that, we have us a run to the topside a goin'
Wave three started at that 163.xx....a target would be just short of the famous old timey 192.xx. meanwhile we try to identify A B C patterns which are typical in a monster wave 3.....what I'm thinking this one is. ( monster wave three's are a site to see.....extending way the hail out there past where would normally think they would target ). And a b c 's are the mark of a super extension wave 3.
  • #14,439
  • Sep 11, 2014 4:33pm Sep 11, 2014 4:33pm
Quoting IveGotQuads
{quote} Looks like this zone is the new support, i've placed a buy order @ 173.34 SL 172.70 and TP @ 174.80 A little bit over 2 to 1 although had to take a massive reduction in position size to adjust my risk. Hopefully we get some action in a couple of hours.
closed trade @ 173.92 for 55+ pips and 16+ pips consecutively...not too happy with this since it was barely 1:1 and I was planning on holding this till Friday 12 pm. But 173.96 zone seems to be much stronger resistance than given credit. Its Friday tomorrow with a very profitable week, I like to play this with more caution than giving some pips back to the market. Hope you guys made pips as well...time to draw up plan for tomorrow
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  • #14,440
  • Sep 11, 2014 4:56pm Sep 11, 2014 4:56pm
Even tho this is as bullish as it can be.. there just so much resistance on 174.+++ that its impossible for friday to break all the way..

Friday will be a day where all the big players hedge their positions.. we just have to wait and see.
Probably the worlds best currency trader.
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