Trading is as simple as ABCD | Page 70 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Gartley/bat/crab/butterfly/abcd/three Drives Pattern Indicator Help 50 replies

Abcd fibo retracement trading journal 109 replies

ABCD - My way 122 replies

ABCD Fibo 82 replies

abcd patterns 1 reply

Attachments: Trading is as simple as ABCD
Exit Attachments

Trading is as simple as ABCD

  • #1,381
  • Sep 10, 2014 2:50am Sep 10, 2014 2:50am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Morning MR V. Hear what you're saying and I will look into it, in particular I think the over 20 reading is particularly valid as the whole point of this strategy is to only trade strong trending pairs and of course the steeper the MA the better. I will have a word with Ted but I get the feeling he's getting a bit fed up with all my suggestions and the work I cause him. Is there any other coders interested in looking into it???? What you reckon about these GBP and eur pairs charging Mr V.??? When will it stop?? Am I right to pay attention...
Trading is IMHO about the typical, what repeats that you can latch onto.

For example if LO has a 50-70 pip move quickly that's generally it until US session. If LO is quiet then high probability that pre/post US open will be good. If LO tries and fails to move in one direction and gives a signal in the other it will generally be decent move. If Asian and pre/early Frankfurt have had very strong moves then LO is often quiet-ish.

The pairs we are watching are great trenders when they go, but the last 3 days moves are not really the norm. Yes they do happen and now we are out of the US August holidays we could well move up significantly higher (with decent retraces of course). Look at any D chart of a pair like euraud, gbpaud etc for size of D moves and size of likely D retraces.

We bought the bottom euraud and exited at a W pivot for 107 pips (Monday I think it was) not knowing if this was a retrace in down trend or start of major move up. Mrs V and I were away from computer when yesterdays US session move started (an alert would have been very handy then) and this morning move up started very early.

Anyway long story short if you have been in and out and have profits banked I'd generally say carry on until it stops but to get in on 1st trade of the day when pairs are 100-150 pips up this morning already is very, very difficult for me. Maybe if we drift sideways until US session but other than that to get in so late in a move gives me a very uneasy feeling. Hey but that's just me.

IMHO again whilst we can carry on up today the pa over the last few days does happen but is not normal for it to continue when you are into day 3 of such a move.
  • #1,382
  • Sep 10, 2014 2:58am Sep 10, 2014 2:58am
I can't watch anymore just all looks too crazy today, price is practically moving in a straight line. How often does that happen??

But as I've got a few minutes to spare I will bore you all with my new theory on entries.

I've noticed before that when I get a really strong trender that we don't get our CCI pullback to the +/-100 levels even when I drop down to an 8 period CCI, so I started to look at the charts a bit closer and sure enough the pullbacks were there but not enough to register on the CCI's.

So I started to use a simple entry system. Lets say you're buying and so you've got a strong trender like our GBPAUD this morning with a reading well over the 20 level and a bit more 54 right now. Then here's what you do...

Watch for some red candles , normal candles, then when you get the first green one place a pending order 2 pips plus spread above the candle. Now stops can be played 2 ways, either place stop below the entry candle if you like it tight and for a good RR. Or if you're cautious then place it below the last low or key level like 25 levels or S and R. The theory being because you're in a strong trend even if you get the entry wrong the trend will make it right for you. Go to BE as soon as 2nd candle takes you away, don't worry about being taken out at BE theres plenty of entries with this method.

In practice what I do is place a pending order 20 or so pips above the price then when I see the red candles form I drag it down closer and soon as I see the green candle drag it into place.

Now imagine we catch a strong trender like this and instead of snatching pips here there and every where just did what I said above and moved to BE quickly then hold until the LWMA changes colour???

I've marked out a few entries, yellow lines, on the GBPAUD chart from this morning, looks interesting doesn't it and as long as we go to BE very quickly we should be ok. The secret is to enter not shortly after a colour change and see how it goes???

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Adding to a strong trender.png Size: 68 KB


The bottom line is to trade the strong 1 minute trends as you would a daily trend its just faster and more fun....

Of course it takes balls but then if you ain't got balls what you doing trading forex????
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,383
  • Sep 10, 2014 3:09am Sep 10, 2014 3:09am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Trading is IMHO about the typical, what repeats that you can latch onto. For example if LO has a 50-70 pip move quickly that's generally it until US session. If LO is quiet then high probability that pre/post US open will be good. If LO tries and fails to move in one direction and gives a signal in the other it will generally be decent move. If Asian and pre/early Frankfurt have had very strong moves then LO is often quiet-ish. The pairs we are watching are great trenders when they go, but the last 3 days moves are not really the norm. Yes...

Yes I agree this is the "unusual" which is why we are both finding it hard to trade it, but if we adapted the idea of trading a trend until it ends, then sure , we will have a loser at the end but who knows when that is?? And by the way if we adapt that powerful mindset then there are a lot of 1 min trends in a week that go 100 plus pips but hey, with the system i showed above we don't evn need 100 plus pip moves 30 to 50 will be fine.

Its all in the mindset isn't it???

We have to treat these 1 minute charts just like any other charts, lets imagine trends go on forever instead of looking for them to end, lets just trade them as if they are never going to stop. Might lose that last trade but more than likely BE, we will have losers for sure but the winners will be far far bigger.

Don't forget I'm talking about strong trenders only, from the top 4 of the TT indy...

Well I'm going to try it on demo lets see how I get on...
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,384
  • Sep 10, 2014 3:20am Sep 10, 2014 3:20am
Last post on this then its back to trading as our long overdue reversal looks like its looming..

Look at this chart its a strong trending market if we can't trade this then we should n't be trading. 13.8 pips from this 70 pip move is a disgrace!! It can only be the mindset thats stopping us as the price action is nearly perfect.

I'm not going to go on about it too long but these trends are being handed to us on a plate every day we just gotta start trading them properly like any other chart and shake off those old beliefs and limitations that are holding us back.

If a charts trending, trade the trend until it ends!!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Call yourself a trader.png Size: 76 KB
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,385
  • Edited 3:54am Sep 10, 2014 3:42am | Edited 3:54am
Hi Clive

I still do not believe the system needs any change or modification apart from my often stated idea of the cci14 200 retrace on scale. This move started before Frankies open and shows 4 system trades (either 200 scale retrace or to -100), see the red lines. The arrows up show where there has been a set up per rules and then a green candle and price has gone 2 pips above to signal an entry. The last red line on the right gets an x for no trade as price did not go 2 pips higher.

There doesn't need to be any further changes other than the cci 200 retrace on scale. Your basic system covers it all. You don't need to tweak anything for such a day. Its not how big the move was its what happened in the time you were in front of the computer.

On each trade an exit could have been either a pivot or 50/75 psych levels. Its not the system entries that are a concern here but your exits perhaps?

Now as discussed there has been a decent retrace (the last entry would perhaps be BE NB the very last set up did not signal a trade) so we can maybe move up again.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUDM1.png Size: 44 KB
  • #1,386
  • Sep 10, 2014 3:52am Sep 10, 2014 3:52am
Quoting Vantage
Anyway long story short if you have been in and out and have profits banked I'd generally say carry on until it stops but to get in on 1st trade of the day when pairs are 100-150 pips up this morning already is very, very difficult for me. Maybe if we drift sideways until US session but other than that to get in so late in a move gives me a very uneasy feeling. Hey but that's just me. IMHO again whilst we can carry on up today the pa over the last few days does happen but is not normal for it to continue when you are into day 3 of such a move.
Price fell not long after this was posted the x red line shows the time.

Yet again even in what seems the strongest of moves the basics apply. In this case the first 3 system trades worked nicely in the move up and you cannot expect to be getting in after a 150 pip move on the 4th/5th signal and think that all will be OK.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUDM1.png Size: 37 KB
  • #1,387
  • Sep 10, 2014 4:00am Sep 10, 2014 4:00am
At last the long awaited reversal back with the daily trend!!! I knew thos fat cats at the banks were wait to jump on this ....

not the best entry in the world but it'll do, should of entered on first pullback but hey ho.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUDM1.png Size: 70 KB



Now this I'm holding as back with daily trend until it ends!!!!
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,388
  • Sep 10, 2014 4:04am Sep 10, 2014 4:04am
I hereby promise to hold this trade until the trend ends, ok???

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ok now hold the so and so.png Size: 70 KB
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,389
  • Sep 10, 2014 4:15am Sep 10, 2014 4:15am
Safely added another entry and will add on next one too...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: first load.png Size: 68 KB
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,390
  • Sep 10, 2014 5:28am Sep 10, 2014 5:28am
Well this is interesting stuck in a bit of consolidation now and my 2nd load came off at BE and a third entry cost me 3 pips so just going to sit this out as they say if price came down into consolidation it should continue on downwards afterwards. At one time I was up about 60 pips when both trades were in profit and of course the obvious question is, should I have banked???

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUDM1.png Size: 67 KB


Well only time will tell on that one and of course I'm suppose to hold this now until the 100lwma turns green.

One things for sure right now this is not actually trending its in consolidation so should i just bank anyway? I don't suppose too much more is going to happen before NYO so I could bank then just start following the trend again when it resumes, just in case it doesn't. If I bank now then at least its in the bank and if it continues I can start it off again probably break and retest of the lower level.

I of course have a "belief" that its going to go down more with the daily trend so fancy holding it but e all know what beliefs do don't we???

Hmmm all things to consider with this 1 minute strategy far more to it than just grab a handful of pips and run..
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,391
  • Sep 10, 2014 5:55am Sep 10, 2014 5:55am
Quoting clivepackham
Well this is interesting stuck in a bit of consolidation now and my 2nd load came off at BE and a third entry cost me 3 pips so just going to sit this out as they say if price came down into consolidation it should continue on downwards afterwards. At one time I was up about 60 pips when both trades were in profit and of course the obvious question is, should I have banked??? {image} Well only time will tell on that one and of course I'm suppose to hold this now until the 100lwma turns green. One things for sure right now this is not actually trending...
Great trades. I think that when you have had multiple lows around the 85 level then you'd have to consider exiting and waiting for US open, 60 pips not to be sneezed at.
  • #1,392
  • Sep 10, 2014 8:14am Sep 10, 2014 8:14am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Great trades. I think that when you have had multiple lows around the 85 level then you'd have to consider exiting and waiting for US open, 60 pips not to be sneezed at.

Ha Ha you were right should of taken my 60 pips when they were there but instead I lost 3 pips from the whole move. Hanging on for a move that was never there in the first place.

Mind you I didn't trade the trend to the end, did I?? No i kept holding even when the last LH was taken out now that in anybodys language is the end of the trend and would of given me about 30 pips profit. Nope I was determine to stick with the trend and just kept holding as if it was some test of manhood or something.

Anyway the point is to learn from this whole experience and probably the biggest thing to learn is when trends end get out!!! Don't expect the trend to go on forever just take what it gives you but I thought here we go from an amazing daily high we are back with the daily trend. Gotta stop thinking I guess and just trade the charts price action and market structure, stop dreaming that every trend will run 100 plus pips. They are the rare 1 min trends lets just work with the everyday normal 1 min trends 30 to 50 pips I guess at most.

Will review this all later but yet another day without a real loser and a net 15% gain but could of been so much more. Like I say lots to be learnt from this today and will review later.

I think when trading the trend maybe bank each move as I go that way you are gauranteed to bank something no matter what happens.

Watch this space I am learning everyday and its getting better and better.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,393
  • Sep 10, 2014 5:04pm Sep 10, 2014 5:04pm
Just thought I would quickly review my trades today and what I did right and what I did wrong...

The first trade I should of held with the trend intact for longer. I took 13 pips when the move was over 70 pips. There was no need to close out trade as trend was solidly intact and price moving up strongly.

The best way to come out of a strong trender is to trail the stops up under the last HL in an uptrend or behind the LH's in a downtrend. This way we should suck the life out of a good trend right until the end. Another good place to trail is behind 25 levels that have been broken, I've highlighted possible trailing stops on chart with small red bars.

Of course having come out too soon then I decided to sell one and hold it until the 100lwma changed colour. Well that didn't quite go to plan either, I thought I'd done badly in the first trade to only get 13 pips from a 70 pip run but this one beggars belief. Having once been about 60 pips up to then actually lose 3 pips is criminal to say the least!!!

So how can I avoid such errors going forward if I'm to trade these trends??

I need to take notice of any signs suggesting the trend is weakening or about to finish or over. The chart below shows some of the signs I need to be looking for as the trend progresses.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Errors trading the trend.png Size: 87 KB


Here's some of the signs that the trend I was trading on GBPAUD today was weakening or coming to an end or in fact is over.

 

  1. 4 failed drives, a failed drive is a definate warning that the trend could be ending. At this point I should of trailed my stops to above the last LH as the sure sign its over is when you get a failed drive followed by the last LH being taken out.
  2. After 2 failed drives then on the 3rd attempt close out all trades asap for maximium profit.
  3. Price takes out the last LH, this is without doubt a sure fire end of trend signal but wait for the next drive down as sometimes it will resume the trend taking out the last drive down. However if it fails then immediately close out. This was demonstrated on my trade, notice after the 4th failed drive price then takes out the last LH before pushing down once more. When this happens watch closely for the CCI to turn and as soon as price confirms it close out.
  4. The last CCI that goes below -100 level is higher than the previous one therefore its a HL which of course is my reversal signal, you should close out sell trade and if feeling brave enter a buy trade immediately.
  5. Price crosses over the 100lwma alarm bells should be ringing.
  6. Finally price takes out my last high that drove down hard(supply point).


The right way to close out in a trend is by trailing behind HLs or LH's until stopped out. Theres no need to trail immediately but once you have a failed drive then move stops up to trail last high or low as a precaution.

Lastly don't have some predetermined thought in your head about the direction price "should go". Price goes where it wants and its our job to read the signs and make decisions on what we see rather than what we think we see. Easier said than done of course in the heat of the moment but if we take first things first i would say a failed drive is usually the first sign of a trend weakening and if its followed by the last LH or HL being taken out its almost gaurantees its over 7 times out of 10 so get out.

Look for market structure to be broken by two consecutive signals . In other words a HL in a down trend on its own is ok but if its proceeded by a HH then you've got problems in your downtrend. Of course the opposite is true in an uptrend, a LL on its own is fine but if its followed by a LH then again the trends struggling get out.

If it goes into a consolidation period and ranges for a while, again move the stops down above/below the range to lock in some profits in case it comes back at you. However if the trend continues out of the range then alls well and continue holding.

Theres one other really important point when trading the 1 minute trend. It can change in a flick of an eye, so be ready to drop the current trend and trade the opposite way at a drop of a hat. Don't hold any weird belief that price "should go" one way or the other. If it was like that and it always did what it should then trading would be a piece of cake!! But it won't so don't!!

And finally you have to have absolute faith in your strategy and know that if you stick with it everything will work out in the end. Yes you're going to have losers and yes you will jump on the wrong direction but in the end as long as our winners are bigger than our losers we will be ok.

The biggest single filter we must have in place is to only trade the strongest trends, this all works in strong trending pairs and as we all know strong trends appear on 1 min charts nearly everyday. Take today for instance there were many trends to catch heres just a few to wet your appetite...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUDM1t3.png Size: 94 KB



Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpnzdm1.png Size: 92 KB



Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCHFM1t1.png Size: 86 KB


Ok so today was an exceptional day for GBP pairs but these 1 minute trends do happen practically everyday so lets see if we can't catch ourselves a few over the coming weeks and months....
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,394
  • Sep 11, 2014 2:20am Sep 11, 2014 2:20am
Bit too late to the ball this morning really must get up in the morning as I can see I've missed some massive opportunities already but lets have a go at this gbpaud you never know it might keep going if not then a reversal could be on the cards...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUDM1.png Size: 57 KB
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,395
  • Sep 11, 2014 2:35am Sep 11, 2014 2:35am
Looking a little toppy Lwma turned red so decided to bank 6.4 pips and got my sell stop on the chart ready to pull into place if a downtrend develops....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUDM1.png Size: 57 KB
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,396
  • Sep 11, 2014 2:47am Sep 11, 2014 2:47am
Quoting clivepackham
Looking a little toppy Lwma turned red so decided to bank 6.4 pips and got my sell stop on the chart ready to pull into place if a downtrend develops.... {image}
I am still in gbpaud. Whilst the other gbp pairs are drifting euraud is going up nicely so we'll see if yesterdays high holds us up or not. Stop at BE after the push down to test my entry which is just above the RN.
  • #1,397
  • Sep 11, 2014 2:58am Sep 11, 2014 2:58am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} I am still in gbpaud. Whilst the other gbp pairs are drifting euraud is going up nicely so we'll see if yesterdays high holds us up or not. Stop at BE after the push down to test my entry which is just above the RN.

Yes its interesting GBPAUD and EURAUD looked very similar when I first looked but interestingly now GBPAUD is looking very rangy whereas EURAUD is still trending nicely, same old question how can we know that when we first trade???

Guess the answer is we don't so maybe I should split my risk and take an entry on all 4 top trenders that look good??

Looks like your GBPAUD is pushing ahead good hold MR V..

Makes me realise we need to trail up stops below consolidation areas in a strong trend then we either get out or hold onto the trend...
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,398
  • Sep 11, 2014 3:02am Sep 11, 2014 3:02am
ok lets try EURAUD then???
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraudm1.png Size: 56 KB
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,399
  • Sep 11, 2014 3:13am Sep 11, 2014 3:13am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Yes its interesting GBPAUD and EURAUD looked very similar when I first looked but interestingly now GBPAUD is looking very rangy whereas EURAUD is still trending nicely, same old question how can we know that when we first trade??? Guess the answer is we don't so maybe I should split my risk and take an entry on all 4 top trenders that look good?? Looks like your GBPAUD is pushing ahead good hold MR V.. Makes me realise we need to trail up stops below consolidation areas in a strong trend then we either get out or hold onto the trend...
I stepped away from the computer. I think I would have been interested in euraud around 1.4092. My gbpaud was not at that time at BE so don't know if I would have taken it.

GBPAUD out at BE so those few pips that I waited from entry for price to move above the RN cost be dearly. My target was W R1 at 1.7729 which got hit.
  • #1,400
  • Sep 11, 2014 3:46am Sep 11, 2014 3:46am
Heres an interesting chart on how to trade the 1 minute trends. At the end of the day its just having the condfidence to trade the 1 min trends as you would any other timeframe. The beauty here is to identify strong trenders as price action trading works very well on strong trending pairs.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: trading the 1 minute trends.png Size: 67 KB


As you can see its very clear small consolidation areas form and breakouts follow so a pending order 2 pips above the range works well and you often get to BE in the same 1 minute candle. These consolidation areas form after the pullback finishes so after the 1 min down trend ends.

I've started looking at the price action a lot closer than before so my entries on the pullbacks has changed a bit, heres what I do, look at the pullbacks here you can see the price has started trending down when you look at the actual price action. So we need to wait for that to finish , quite often a small range appears as above. The end of the downtrend is confirmed with a clear HH, then wait for an uptrend to start eg HHHL on the 1 min candles. Wait for first pullback eg red candle then when a green candle appears place a pending order above it.

This is pure price action trading at its best and happens all the time on 1 minute timeframes so lets do it!!!!
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
4 traders viewing now