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  • #1,361
  • Sep 8, 2014 3:35am Sep 8, 2014 3:35am
Hey Clive,

Unfortunately i missed the first sell signal on the GBP/USD. I just took a buy because of the double bottom on the 15min but i placed my S/L a bit too thight...

R.
  • #1,362
  • Sep 8, 2014 4:12am Sep 8, 2014 4:12am
Quoting RautomatiK
Hey Clive, Unfortunately i missed the first sell signal on the GBP/USD. I just took a buy because of the double bottom on the 15min but i placed my S/L a bit too thight... R.
Yep its tricky for sure, but nice when we get it right, lost 2 trades this morning myself trying to catch the gbp reversals but fundamentally I think London is selling GBP on the referendum news just struggling to find the liquidity to do it I guess with so many overnight traders holding their sell positions too.

Anyway 2 looses can quickly be overcome if I can get one right and maybe its catch a ride on a long gbp sell today??? Maybe its just going to plummet dispite gapping down 100 plus pips?? This is the problem when I have an opinion in my head then I just look for price to confirm it for me rather than trade what I see. Mind you 100lwma went green for a while so not too upset the signal was there and I took it.

OK so if I just trade exactly what I see then lets just catch a pulback in this downtrend and start selling GBP.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,363
  • Sep 8, 2014 4:26am Sep 8, 2014 4:26am
OK I get the picture, so its down then????

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Heres what I don't understand I'm sitting here watching this and don't catch it in fact I buy twice on the green 100lwma turn ups???? You see I thought that GBP had gone down enough and wouldn't go down any more, but of course the market had other ideas. Theres been other times when it drives one way all night then reverses the next day so you just never know. All we can do is take the signals and see what happens...

Oh well looking for a pullback now and a nice sell entry.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,364
  • Sep 8, 2014 4:29am Sep 8, 2014 4:29am
Yes - market doesn't like that poll over the weekend indicating a Scotland YES vote.
  • #1,365
  • Sep 8, 2014 4:40am Sep 8, 2014 4:40am
Quoting handy148
Yes - market doesn't like that poll over the weekend indicating a Scotland YES vote.

Yep thats the reason behind it for sure handy148 but what that does is produce an unusual market reaction , by that I mean unusual "technical" price action where fundamentals completely rules the day. Now thats fine as the market will do what it has to do but what I have to do is realise this is exceptional market behaviour and not the normal so therefore it will catch me out. In fact it would probably catch most traders out.

Now I have to accept that and accept the fact I won't always win thats just the way it is. What I mustn't do is change my strategy to fit an "unusual event". I believe my strategy fits 70% of the time when price moves in nice little waves up and down. Today is exceptional as its more or less travelled in a straight line down. Breakout trades would of been the order of the day today, but thats not my strategy, I'm a pullback man all the way which just didn't work today.

Of course its the exception that proves the rule as they say....
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,366
  • Sep 8, 2014 4:42am Sep 8, 2014 4:42am
That being said theres some nice pullbacks setting up here, but twice bitten have I got the nerve to go for it???
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,367
  • Sep 8, 2014 4:48am Sep 8, 2014 4:48am
Yep I guess it's going down for today... waiting for a nice pullback now.

The beauty of this system however is the R:R.
You can afford to lose a couple of trades to get the entry right
  • #1,368
  • Sep 8, 2014 5:39am Sep 8, 2014 5:39am
Quoting RautomatiK
Yep I guess it's going down for today... waiting for a nice pullback now. The beauty of this system however is the R:R. You can afford to lose a couple of trades to get the entry right

Thats exactly it for me, all I'm ever after is the large RR trades. Spot a higher timeframe trade enter it on the 1 min for low risk and when you're wrong small losers when you're right bigger winners. I'm basically trading the 15 min momentum from 15 min CCI turns on the 1 min timeframe.

The key to it all to me is 1 min reversals, if price is going to reverse then the 1 min will go from trending up to trending down. Price can only go up or down so the 1 min is either trending up or trending down. Especially around market open times.

Today is a bit tricky as the fundamental news is screwing with the technicals but it will straighten itself out eventually...

Just sold GBPAUD but its not moved since I did it just going sideways a bit might close it out at BE if it doesn't soon move.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,369
  • Sep 8, 2014 9:38am Sep 8, 2014 9:38am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Thats exactly it for me, all I'm ever after is the large RR trades. Spot a higher timeframe trade enter it on the 1 min for low risk and when you're wrong small losers when you're right bigger winners. I'm basically trading the 15 min momentum from 15 min CCI turns on the 1 min timeframe. The key to it all to me is 1 min reversals, if price is going to reverse then the 1 min will go from trending up to trending down. Price can only go up or down so the 1 min is either trending up or trending down. Especially around market open times. Today...
Hi Clive,

I managed to grab 33 pips buying the GBPUSD around NYO. That washed away my previous two losses. Unfortunately i had to exit my position due to other responsibilities...
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  • #1,370
  • Sep 8, 2014 4:34pm Sep 8, 2014 4:34pm
Quoting RautomatiK
{quote} Hi Clive, I managed to grab 33 pips buying the GBPUSD around NYO. That washed away my previous two losses. Unfortunately i had to exit my position due to other responsibilities... {image}
Nice trade Rautomatik

i had a nightmare day all over the place kept thinking I knew where price was going instead of just trading the trend, buy DB's and HL's only sell DT's and LH's only. When you get one just take it, stop thinking about it too much just trade the price action and be ready for it to reverses at a drop of a hat.

Oh well better luck tomoz.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,371
  • Sep 10, 2014 1:11am Sep 10, 2014 1:11am
London open looking very interesting with GBPJPY, GBPAUD and EURAUD top of my 5 minute TTindy and looking way overbought, how much longer can thier march up the chart continue before that inevitable pullback is coming they've raced up about 240 pips over last 24 hrs or less so a correction is well overdue. Theres a couple of big levels in their way for them to negotiate one way or the other... Or will they just keep on charging straight up on fundamentals????

Attached Image


We'll see what happens

Not much news to worry about until 14.45 GBP inflation then its just the NZD stuff at 22.00 when I will long be in bed.

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Right now I'm keeping an eye on those GBP pairs as that looks like where most of the action will come from so watching for my 100lwma to turn one way or the other then off we go.

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Good luck....
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,372
  • Sep 10, 2014 1:22am Sep 10, 2014 1:22am
Couldn't resist it

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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,373
  • Sep 10, 2014 1:44am Sep 10, 2014 1:44am
Theres a big hrly level at 1.76339 which concerns me so took 13.8 pips 13.8% just to get the day off to a nice start, find it hard to believe it will just power through that level so expecting some big orders there. If it takes some steps back I might re-enter and have another go but best entry will be break and retest of that level.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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And onto the next...
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,374
  • Sep 10, 2014 1:53am Sep 10, 2014 1:53am
Nice pullback after break and retest
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYM1.png Size: 63 KB
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,375
  • Sep 10, 2014 1:57am Sep 10, 2014 1:57am
Just another 5.1% there GBP pairs are looking a bit toppy to me some quick fire ricochets here...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,376
  • Sep 10, 2014 2:02am Sep 10, 2014 2:02am
These GBP pairs are looking toppy which is not really surprising when they've gone up so much in the last 24 hrs and the daily charts are screaming "DOWN!!" so I'm not looking to hold these trades on my 100lwma turns, but if they should turn over???? Well thats another story all together...

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Mind you they are in an uptrend so shouldn't I just keep trading that trend until it ends????

Hmmmm., makes you think doesn't it????
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,377
  • Sep 10, 2014 2:16am Sep 10, 2014 2:16am
HI there Clive

My biggest reason for missing trades is getting bored with watching charts and getting my attention diverted. In particular when a session start is sideways eg LO and price only starts doing something pre/post US open.

Is there any chance your indi guru could expand the TT indi to give audible alerts for:

Buys
- TT above (variable input) 20
- Price above (variable input) 100lwma
- cci (variable input) 14 has had a 200 point retrace down (this would cover my option and yours) with a candle count back of (variable input) 15

Sells (with the same variable inputs as above)
- TT below -20
- Price below 100lwma
- cci 14 has had a 200 point retrace up

The 3rd point is the most important in the whole set up. That alert should still give enough time to set up a trade waiting for a candle to close in the direction of a trade. To avoid being driven mad with numerous alerts (in particular with the cci bouncing around) some sort of limiter would be needed (I have no idea about coding). That could be say 1 alert per pair per 15 mins or whatever else works.

It'll be great if something like this can be done.
-
  • #1,378
  • Sep 10, 2014 2:16am Sep 10, 2014 2:16am
The system is to take an entry just after a colour change on my 100lwma and hold until it changes colour again, but thats very hard to do. If I'd of held my first entry today on GBPAUD I would of been 30 odd pips up by now but because I have a belief in my head that it can't keep going up I closed it out at the first sign of trouble. As if by magic as I type this post its shooting up the page ever stronger over 50 pips or there abouts....

This is the problem with trading, having an opinion is instead of just trading the price action in front of your face. If price is still moving strongly then trade it , simple as that otherwise opinions just get in the way...

Well thats the next peice of the learning curve I guess, just trade what you see, not what you think....
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,379
  • Sep 10, 2014 2:24am Sep 10, 2014 2:24am
Quoting Vantage
HI there Clive My biggest reason for missing trades is getting bored with watching charts and getting my attention diverted. In particular when a session start is sideways eg LO and price only starts doing something pre/post US open. Is there any chance your indi guru could expand the TT indi to give audible alerts for: Buys - TT above (variable input) 20 - Price above (variable input) 100lwma - cci (variable input) 14 has had a 200 point retrace down (this would cover my option and yours) with a candle count back of (variable input) 15 Sells (with...

Morning MR V.

Hear what you're saying and I will look into it, in particular I think the over 20 reading is particularly valid as the whole point of this strategy is to only trade strong trending pairs and of course the steeper the MA the better.

I will have a word with Ted but I get the feeling he's getting a bit fed up with all my suggestions and the work I cause him. Is there any other coders interested in looking into it????

What you reckon about these GBP and eur pairs charging Mr V.??? When will it stop?? Am I right to pay attention to ADR limits being reached??? Is this the unusual occurrence so be careful of changing strategy ???

Whats your thoughts "old timer" and I mean that in the kindest way eg "Old timer" as in Your vast experience of trading??
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,380
  • Sep 10, 2014 2:34am Sep 10, 2014 2:34am
This is crazy!!! For the last hour I've been looking at that GBPAUD racing up the page and think about taking an entry but then I think "Nahhh, its going to end soon but it just keeps bloody going!!! Missed my break and retest entry on that hrly level too!! Break and retest are very good entries on the 1 minute chart especially old S and R levels and 25 levels too, can't go wrong with them really in a strong trending pair, can't say it enough technical trading, indicators, break and retest etc etc. All work very well in strong trending markets....

Now I definitely think its too late but it does just keep going?????
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
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