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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #10,321
  • Sep 4, 2014 5:17pm Sep 4, 2014 5:17pm
Hello everyone,

I got my eye on a possible Gartley forming on the CAD/JPY Daily. Is anyone going to take this trade? Some discussion and strategy on how to approach this possibility is greatly appreciated.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GartleyCAD.png Size: 169 KB
  • #10,322
  • Sep 4, 2014 9:46pm Sep 4, 2014 9:46pm
Quoting fxyogi17
Hello everyone, I got my eye on a possible Gartley forming on the CAD/JPY Daily. Is anyone going to take this trade? Some discussion and strategy on how to approach this possibility is greatly appreciated. {image}
Hello Hello.

I thought I would throw in my 2 cents.

First I want to state that on the weekly chart , this is an area (between 98.0000 & 101.0000) to look for shorting opportunities but thats a huge gap. There was some structure back in 2007 - 2008. Wheather or not that is relivent now. I dont know.

I don't trade this pair and I dont trade the daily but here is my analysis anyway.

The potential for a reversal is there but I would need to see some bearish evidence before commiting. There is one benefit to working off the dailys... you can pin point your entries better and get out and reenguage if necessary. I would be cautious just because of the Bullish momentum. Deceleration or a nice double top on weakness would be awesome for entry.

Its just a quicky so there is probably some stuff that I missed.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/1m2oY2VF/
  • #10,323
  • Sep 5, 2014 11:36am Sep 5, 2014 11:36am
Besides Mr. Pip, are there any traders on here that make their living from trading? I would like to speak with you. I'm considering making a career change from my current career to full time trading. I would just like to get some feedback on the preparations you made before making the switch yourselves. I would also like to hear what some of your struggles are as professional traders. I know, personally, that I could potentially struggle with the lack of personal interaction with my coworkers. If that is something you have struggled with, what did you do to address that? Thanks in advance!

Jon
  • #10,324
  • Sep 6, 2014 5:40am Sep 6, 2014 5:40am
Quoting Mack2013
{quote} Hello Hello. I thought I would throw in my 2 cents. First I want to state that on the weekly chart , this is an area (between 98.0000 & 101.0000) to look for shorting opportunities but thats a huge gap. There was some structure back in 2007 - 2008. Wheather or not that is relivent now. I dont know. I don't trade this pair and I dont trade the daily but here is my analysis anyway. The potential for a reversal is there but I would need to see some bearish evidence before commiting. There is one benefit to working off the dailys... you can...
Really like the way you address your chart, neat and clean , visually pleasing on the eye, I wonder whats the platform that u use ?

Thanks a lot for PA structure breakdown, I like how u do it, learning from every single one u post
I Have Learned to Take Some Losses to Make Profits
  • #10,325
  • Sep 6, 2014 1:13pm Sep 6, 2014 1:13pm
Quoting fxyogi17
Hello everyone, I got my eye on a possible Gartley forming on the CAD/JPY Daily. Is anyone going to take this trade? Some discussion and strategy on how to approach this possibility is greatly appreciated. {image}
Hey mate,

I think you did very well by spotting that Emerging Bearish Gartley on D1, matter fact I went a bit Higher
and saw this on the Weekly TimeFrame:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CADJPY-W1.png Size: 73 KB


Despite the Momentum to the upside, it's very clear to me that CAD/JPY will eventually go Down at some point.
I do not know if it's going to happen this week, but I am going to make a case for it on a technical analysis basis.

Most Technical Analysis Traders don't like to include Fundamentals Analysis on their decisions making, and I think
this might be the missing link when all said and done...JPY is very WEAK right now, and any positive News on CAD
will encourage Price Action to continue Higher, and Harmonic Pattern will not have the power to Stop the Continuation.

Remember this: The Trend is your FRIEND until it Bends...Right now, my Job is to identify the How and when it will
"BEND"

-- When I look at the 4-Hour Timeframe, I think that this pair is definitely going Higher, and 98.300ish is the SWEET SPOT
for any major Bearish REVERSAL...Now, since Big Institutions have a tendency to chase after our Stop-Losses, I would say
as long as Price Action is trading around 98.300 and 99.000. Our Bearish bias is still ALIVE!!!

-- Now, there's a different story or a different approach on the Hourly Timeframe, and My Picture below explains it all:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CADJPY-H1-TASimpler.png Size: 56 KB


Overall, don't get too attached or excited about this pair...All I want you to do is to Follow My 3 Step Process when it comes
to placing a TRADE:

1- Identify Properly The Market Direction ( Weekly TF has to be in the SAME direction as 4Hour TF)

2- Have a great ENTRY STRATEGY (Harmonic Pattern is the best - Use it as a Tool, but not the Holy Grail)

3- Have GOOD Equity Management (Like I said: Have an Investor Mindset, but Trade like an Entrepreneur)

Note:
Investor.- Investigate and look for the Bigger Picture in terms of Overall Market Direction
Entrepreneur.- Look for countless Entry points knowing exactly where the market will reverse on the opposite side.
Have an INVESTOR Mindset, but Trade like an ENTREPRENEUR
  • #10,326
  • Sep 6, 2014 1:30pm Sep 6, 2014 1:30pm
Hello OctaveJay,

THank you for the response and your comments help a lot especially with someone just learning! How do you feel adding fundamental analysis to your technicals has helped you? Are you a profitable trader? How long have you been trading for? What motivates you to trade?

As per your comments you said "Now, since Big Institutions have a tendency to chase after our Stop-Losses, I would say
as long as Price Action is trading around 98.300 and 99.000. Our Bearish bias is still ALIVE!!!"

However if price hits 99.000 this invalidates our Gartley, how do you do deal with those situations, if you saw bearish momentum at that level would you execute the short trade?

You also said "Identify Properly The Market Direction ( Weekly TF has to be in the SAME direction as 4Hour TF" Lets say we see price hit our 99.000 level and now we see some bearish candles on the 4hour, would you execute the trade before looking at the daily candle?

Sorry for loads of quesitons, but the lesson I learned from your post is look at multiple time frames before pulling trigger, is that something you do for all trades??
  • #10,327
  • Sep 6, 2014 3:47pm Sep 6, 2014 3:47pm
Quoting TheScorpS
{quote} Really like the way you address your chart, neat and clean , visually pleasing on the eye, I wonder whats the platform that u use ? Thanks a lot for PA structure breakdown, I like how u do it, learning from every single one u post
Thank you. I try to keep my charts as clean as possible. For the most part I use cTrader but once and awhile I'll use tradingview. tradingview is a free web base platform. Personally I think its better then cTrader. Its super clean with lots of options. The free scroll is super handy too.

They also have a forum on their site where everyone post ideas. They got a handy little feature where you can got to the chart someone posted in the ideas section then you click the right arrow on the right side of the chart and the the price will update to show you the results of their trade. Nice!!!

Thanks again for the encouragement. I'm still learning but if I can help out a few others on the way, I will.
  • #10,328
  • Sep 8, 2014 7:43am Sep 8, 2014 7:43am
Quoting Mack2013
{quote} Thank you. I try to keep my charts as clean as possible. For the most part I use cTrader but once and awhile I'll use tradingview. tradingview is a free web base platform. Personally I think its better then cTrader. Its super clean with lots of options. The free scroll is super handy too. They also have a forum on their site where everyone post ideas. They got a handy little feature where you can got to the chart someone posted in the ideas section then you click the right arrow on the right side of the chart and the the price will update...
Hey Mack,

How you doin?

Trading View is sick!! i needed something web based so badly! i love ninja but i cant download it on every computer im on so this is cool.

btw nice supply/demand zones on your chart last page
  • #10,329
  • Sep 8, 2014 7:56am Sep 8, 2014 7:56am
Strong bearish order flow, however, we seek entry, to go to 38% of 1to1 D.
see, Greetings
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUDDailyONETOONE DY 38%.png Size: 36 KB
  • #10,330
  • Sep 8, 2014 8:16am Sep 8, 2014 8:16am
Quoting FineForex
{quote} Hey Mack, How you doin? Trading View is sick!! i needed something web based so badly! i love ninja but i cant download it on every computer im on so this is cool. btw nice supply/demand zones on your chart last page
Thanks FF. I'm Good. Yeah, I use tradingview if I want to do a indepth analysis. Its just easier to use and nicer on the eye. Access from any terminal is awesome too.
I haven't been able to study structure (Demand & Supply) as much as I wanted too. I've been overwelmed by renos. Just moved last week so I was on a tight deadline.

Morning is kind of slow. I got a couple of things on the go but nothing materializing. All my set ups seem counter to order flow and/or strength

The nices thing I got so far is an Agg C on the GBPUSD - 3min, The current Long Term Order Flow Bullish Swing is weak but I just dont like the strength of structure (only a green ling) and the weakness from the Bears on Short term Order Flow. I think I'll wait for the bigger Agg C and see how price reacts there.

BTW, FF, how did you do on your test?

http://icmarkets.ctrader.com/images/screens/cb6wn.png
  • #10,331
  • Sep 8, 2014 8:19am Sep 8, 2014 8:19am
Quoting Mack2013
{quote} Thanks FF. I'm Good. Yeah, I use tradingview if I want to do a indepth analysis. Its just easier to use and nicer on the eye. Access from any terminal is awesome too. I haven't been able to study structure (Demand & Supply) as much as I wanted too. I've been overwelmed by renos. Just moved last week so I was on a tight deadline. Morning is kind of slow. I got a couple of things on the go but nothing materializing. All my set ups seem counter to order flow and/or strength The nices thing I got so far is an Agg C on the GBPUSD - 3min, The...
thats the same set up im looking at.

only thing that looks like a realistic set up would be short this now but im going to hold off live trades for today.

btw nailed that test, got another one now tho =/
  • #10,332
  • Sep 8, 2014 8:49am Sep 8, 2014 8:49am
Quoting FineForex
{quote} thats the same set up im looking at. only thing that looks like a realistic set up would be short this now but im going to hold off live trades for today. btw nailed that test, got another one now tho =/
Nice. Good for you.
  • #10,333
  • Sep 8, 2014 9:10am Sep 8, 2014 9:10am
Quoting pampaq
Strong bearish order flow, however, we seek entry, to go to 38% of 1to1 D. see, Greetings {image}
Similar one made ​​earlier today, greetings. see if any, ability to go to 61%, depending on order flow, we shall see, it reached 38% without roblems.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCADH1ya aprovechado.png Size: 38 KB
  • #10,334
  • Edited 10:04am Sep 8, 2014 9:22am | Edited 10:04am
Quoting pampaq
{quote} Similar one made ​​earlier today, greetings. see if any, ability to go to 61%, depending on order flow, we shall see, it reached 38% without roblems. {image}
I am also looking at that set up on the GBPCAD its been looking very similar to the one on GBPUSD. I'm a little werry though. I haven't had much experience but was reading about Gap fills in the forex market. Compared to the equity market, the forex market has a higher probability to fill in price gaps.... With that being said, if price makes its way up to the 61.8, Do you feel price may have a higher probability to fill in the gap?

Just wanted to know your thoughts... BTW, I am also looking to short.

Update: Possible Cypher pattern as well. I dont trade the cypher by itself but I do take it as confirmation of other set ups
http://icmarkets.ctrader.com/images/screens/906wn.png
  • #10,335
  • Sep 8, 2014 11:26am Sep 8, 2014 11:26am
Quoting pampaq
{quote} Similar one made ​​earlier today, greetings. see if any, ability to go to 61%, depending on order flow, we shall see, it reached 38% without roblems. {image}
I reached 61%, hope you have been tapped, Greetings
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCADH1mbuenollegó61%.png Size: 38 KB
  • #10,336
  • Edited 11:43am Sep 8, 2014 11:31am | Edited 11:43am
Quoting Mack2013
{quote} Nice. Good for you.
seems to be bullish power, but today, already went up 150 pips, would have to be very cautious, ADR 138%, could have a decline, greetings, the day is done, proceed with caution.
If you look at W, still has some 100pips to SMW, so we might expect to finish the rebound in D, and then enter again, short, always with clear manifestation of strength and bearish, bullish weakness.
O and D, this upward, we could go to the long EMA 8 D, which is what is marked.
However, as cumplióel 61%, one hour, one should be very cautious in going long. and do it in 1 hour. After a bearish reversal to upward momentum.
By now patience was 1H area RM with a 2T, therefore the resistance is strong.
breaks and see if that happens.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCADWeeklycon vacioprecioalabaja.png Size: 33 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCADDailyenrebotealcistahasta8emaD.png Size: 32 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCADH1.png Size: 36 KB
  • #10,337
  • Sep 8, 2014 6:12pm Sep 8, 2014 6:12pm
Quoting Mack2013
{quote} Hello Hello. I thought I would throw in my 2 cents. First I want to state that on the weekly chart , this is an area (between 98.0000 & 101.0000) to look for shorting opportunities but thats a huge gap. There was some structure back in 2007 - 2008. Wheather or not that is relivent now. I dont know. I don't trade this pair and I dont trade the daily but here is my analysis anyway. The potential for a reversal is there but I would need to see some bearish evidence before commiting. There is one benefit to working off the dailys... you can...
Hi Mack,

Thanks for the thorough response, its responses like those that really add to the quality of the thread. I am just learning so unfortunately I cannot reciprocate, but I will take in account your feedback thanks!!
  • #10,338
  • Sep 8, 2014 6:25pm Sep 8, 2014 6:25pm
Quoting fxyogi17
Hello OctaveJay,
As per your comments you said "Now, since Big Institutions have a tendency to chase after our Stop-Losses, I would say as long as Price Action is trading around 98.300 and 99.000. Our Bearish bias is still ALIVE!!!" However if price hits 99.000 this invalidates our Gartley, how do you do deal with those situations, if you saw bearish momentum at that level would you execute the short trade? You also said "Identify Properly The Market Direction ( Weekly TF has to be in the SAME direction as 4Hour TF" Lets say we see price hit our...
Hi fxyogi17,

You are welcome mate, and I am very glad that my post has helped you a little... But it seems like my post
did generate more questions than answers. Hehe! Well, I will do my best to answer some of your questions:

1.- It is an imperative to study and understand Fundamental Analysis if you are going to stay in this game
for a long time. So, I think it's important for me to have that as a Catalyst to determine the Long-term Trend.
I consider News Events as signs on the Highway to better Guide me to the right Direction.

2.- I am not a Profitable Trader yet, but I expect to discipline myself more and Focus on my Plan...

3.- I have been learning about Forex for over 2 years now...and Still learning as you know.

4.- My Motivation is simple: "LEVERAGE" -I was fascinated by this word, and wanted to do something that most
people were afraid to do, and I got introduced to the Financial Market couple of years ago.... And Volatility in Forex
got me Hooked...

To clarify the CONFUSION about the 99.000 Level, it's important that you take the Overall Market Direction in
consideration... Basically, the 99.00 Level is a psychological level, and traders will most likely place their Stop-Losses
a few pips above it, but looking at the current Price Action, CAD/JPY is about +250 Pips away from that Level. And I
doubt any retail traders will risk that much knowing clearly that the 4-Hour Timeframe is still BULLISH.

-[If it hits it] Yes, it will invalidate the Gartley setup on Daily Chart, but that Bearish Butterfly on W1 Chart will still be in Play...
- 99.00 Level is the X-Leg of that Daily Gartley and the D-Completion of that Bearish Butterfly on the Weekly Chart.
-Of Course, if there's Bearish momentum on that 99.00 Level, I would short the Heck out of it....

I usually don't trade CAD/JPY, and because of this conversation, I think it's only fair to follow this pair and watch how it unfolds.
I am going to place small positions knowing that if the 4-Hour TF (Bullishness) holds, 99.00 Level might hit next week or so.

As i said, Identify Properly the Market Direction...

4-HOUR is still Bullish, and Clearly Weekly Chart is Bullish....Now, because of the Bearish Patterns on Daily and Weekly, we quickly
assume that there's going to be a Major Bearish Reversal at some point....Instead of trading what you think, it's a lot easier to trade
what you see or stay out until Price Action does exactly what you want it to do...

I try to look at Higher Timeframe first before doing any analysis, but If I am day-trading, I only focus on Prior day's High/Low to make
decision for a quick 30 to 50 pips run.

Feel Free to ask any more questions mate....

Note: As a trader, when you have this kind of ability to analyse your chart based on facts, and have a clearly FRAMEWORK to make
decisions, you can control your emotion and be more discipline......
Have an INVESTOR Mindset, but Trade like an ENTREPRENEUR
  • #10,339
  • Sep 8, 2014 7:15pm Sep 8, 2014 7:15pm
Entered a trade on the short side of the AUD/JPY pair (1hr TF). Got a nice ABCD pattern forming. Took an Agg C sell, against order flow mind you, expecting price to drop to the completion of the ABCD; 127 projection of AB; and 138 projection of BC. See below.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,340
  • Sep 8, 2014 9:21pm Sep 8, 2014 9:21pm
Here's an update on my trade (getting ready to go to bed). Price hasn't really gone anywhere.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 46 KB
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