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USD/RUB

  • #21
  • Sep 1, 2014 1:01am Sep 1, 2014 1:01am
Found this neat little average spread widget ... http://www.lmax.com/popup-average-spreads-fx

Looks like the spread is always somewhat bad; rarely goes below 8 pips:

Attached Image
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #22
  • Sep 1, 2014 1:17am Sep 1, 2014 1:17am
I probably should have researched various analysts' takes on the currency before diving in, but this appears to be a good article regarding CBR's interventionist policy (which it is in the process of curbing), as well as other pressures on the currency in addition to the crisis in Ukraine (such as a potential interest rate hike going forward): http://www.bne.eu/content/story/russ...-support-ruble (mentioning a 12-month outlook of 38.15).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #23
  • Sep 1, 2014 1:33am Sep 1, 2014 1:33am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} But to be totally honest, shorting from here is a gamble ... . I'm basically relying upon either (1) the Central Bank to intervene; or (2) the Ukrainian situation to cool substantially. Who the hell knows if either of those will happen soon ... . I sure don't.
Hi Zebra.

I also have my eye on the USD/RUB, but to be honest, I don't have the balls to short this pair. I'm going to wait for the Ukraine/Russia issue to play out first. I will probably miss a big reaction down, but I'm hoping to ride the trend down further. The other factor to keep in mind is that the USD might strengthen more towards the end of the year as we get closer to a potential rate hike. That will limit the downtrend.

Also what effect does the sanctions have? Not possible for enough money to flow into the country to boost demand for the Rubble?
  • #24
  • Sep 1, 2014 1:51am Sep 1, 2014 1:51am
Quoting PiptheRipper
{quote} Hi Zebra. I also have my eye on the USD/RUB, but to be honest, I don't have the balls to short this pair. I'm going to wait for the Ukraine/Russia issue to play out first. I will probably miss a big reaction down, but I'm hoping to ride the trend down further. The other factor to keep in mind is that the USD might strengthen more towards the end of the year as we get closer to a potential rate hike. That will limit the downtrend. Also what effect does the sanctions have? Not possible for enough money to flow into the country to boost demand...
My thinking is that sanctions will result in limiting other countries' ability to buy Russian goods (particularly the Eurozone), resulting in deflationary pressures due to decreasing demand. This is on top of generally lessened demand for the ruble as a transactional currency that would result from sanctions.

It is possible that Russia will offset the sanctions by seeking to expand trade in other markets, but it is likely to be behind the curve on that. That being said, I can imagine that Russian oil and gas are now quite a bit cheaper than they were even a few weeks ago merely due to the hit the Ruble has taken and may present an attractive buying opportunity.

There is the general backdrop of Fed tightening which could move the pair even higher, but I am planning to stay in the trade fairly short-term.

I guess, in the end, it is quite a complicated economic situation at present with various factors having the potential to pull the currency all over the place, but I think the predominant factor is the crisis in Ukraine. News of a potential resolution of that situation is likely to move the pair somewhat dramatically ... (which is what I'm counting on).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #25
  • Sep 1, 2014 2:17am Sep 1, 2014 2:17am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} My thinking is that sanctions will result in limiting other countries' ability to buy Russian goods (particularly the Eurozone), resulting in deflationary pressures due to decreasing demand. This is on top of generally lessened demand for the ruble as a transactional currency that would result from sanctions. It is possible that Russia will offset the sanctions by seeking to expand trade in other markets, but it is likely to be behind the curve on that. That being said, I can imagine that Russian oil and gas are now quite a bit cheaper than...
If it's a short term trade then yes, the Ukraine crisis will be the main factor to focus on, since the probability of central bank intervention is much lower as you pointed out earlier. It's a tough one to manage!

Good luck.
  • #26
  • Sep 1, 2014 12:02pm Sep 1, 2014 12:02pm
Quoting PiptheRipper
{quote} If it's a short term trade then yes, the Ukraine crisis will be the main factor to focus on, since the probability of central bank intervention is much lower as you pointed out earlier. It's a tough one to manage! Good luck.
The above-referenced article mentions that the CBR is willing to tolerate a "trading band against the mixed dollar/euro basket to 35.40 - 44.40" without intervention. Apparently, the "basket consist[s] of 45 eurocents and 55 cents ... ." http://www.cbr.ru/eng/DKP/?PrtId=e-r_policy

The ask on the EUR/RUB is currently at 49; the USD/RUB at 37.33, so if my calculations are correct, the dollar/euro basket value is currently at (.45)(49) + (.55)(37.33) = 42.58. In other words, there are a couple of rubles to go in the basket before an intervention would arguably be triggered.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #27
  • Sep 1, 2014 12:21pm Sep 1, 2014 12:21pm
Mmmmm. Rollover for shorting this pair changed from about .96 to .67. I assume that this is based on the overnight Libor rate, which can naturally fluctuate somewhat, but that is quite a bit of "fluctuation." I don't ordinarily stare much at how the rollover/swap changes from day to day, but I tend to focus on those with large positive swap. .67 isn't bad, but .96 is better.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #28
  • Sep 1, 2014 12:48pm Sep 1, 2014 12:48pm
Slow trading days = learning days. I guess I'm researching Libor today ... .

Point in fact, Libor varies a good deal day to day. Here's the Libor for the Euro over the past several days ... . It went from negative to positive by some margin:

Attached Image


... but I couldn't find a web site with Libor for the Ruble specifically, but stumbled across this web site (The Bank of Russia web site), which will calculate the value of the euro/dollar ruble basket for you on an ongoing basis: http://www.cbr.ru/eng/

They have the value of the basket currently pegged at 42.5474 ... . Again, some room for USD/RUB and EUR/RUB to appreciate before the upper band of concern to the CBR (44.40) is hit ... .

Maybe Russia's Libor is actually "Mibor" -- the Moscow InterBank Offered Rate, which was 8.25 on Friday, 8.36 today:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MIBOR.jpg Size: 40 KB
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #29
  • Sep 3, 2014 10:18pm Sep 3, 2014 10:18pm
That experimental short I made from 37.15 (one position) and 37.43 (additional position) actually turned out to be pretty productive, but the news on a potential Uke ceasefire was the driving impetus behind the downward movement ... .

Not sure that that top at 37.50 will survive for long given the Ukrainian situation; it's pretty much any way the wind blows ... . Just when you think there is a resolution ... nope -- no agreement and then back to the fighting.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #30
  • Sep 4, 2014 3:38am Sep 4, 2014 3:38am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
They have the value of the basket currently pegged at 42.5474
Doesnt really matter.
RCB wants free floating ruble by the end of 2014.
  • #31
  • Sep 4, 2014 9:06pm Sep 4, 2014 9:06pm
Quoting Jonh
{quote} Doesnt really matter. RCB wants free floating ruble by the end of 2014.
That would be nice ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #32
  • Sep 8, 2014 9:57am Sep 8, 2014 9:57am
Just found this thread

My trade ideas here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=503356


Historical since 1953, a long term short may be quite a problem ..

http://fxtop.com/en/historical-excha...=1&LANG=en&CJ=
  • #33
  • Sep 8, 2014 4:36pm Sep 8, 2014 4:36pm
Quoting NeuroBeep
Just found this thread My trade ideas here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=503356 Historical since 1953, a long term short may be quite a problem .. http://fxtop.com/en/historical-excha...=1&LANG=en&CJ=
Hard to say where the currency will go ... .

I took an extremely small short (comparatively speaking) from the recent historical highs which was mildly productive ... . However, you're correct in saying that it's virtually illiquid a vast majority of the trading day ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #34
  • Sep 9, 2014 12:28am Sep 9, 2014 12:28am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Hard to say where the currency will go ... . I took an extremely small short (comparatively speaking) from the recent historical highs which was mildly productive ... . However, you're correct in saying that it's virtually illiquid a vast majority of the trading day ... .
But I think it would be okay as a long-term carry (short only), assuming that you're a believer in the Ukraine crisis being resolved at some juncture, which would strengthen the Ruble significantly. This is why I think that it's worth a small, purely speculative short position off the high of about 37.40 ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #35
  • Sep 9, 2014 12:38am Sep 9, 2014 12:38am
If it were only about swap, though, I prefer GBP/NZD short ... . The gyrations Cable is doing at the moment surrounding the Scottish independence vote leave me looking for other good carry trades like long RUB and long TRY ... . I generally don't mess with exotics due to their goofy per pip cost and weird margin requirements, but, hey, I require entertainment ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #36
  • Sep 9, 2014 12:40am Sep 9, 2014 12:40am
I imagine EUR/RUB short has a better swap, but it isn't offered on the FXCM platform ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #37
  • Sep 11, 2014 12:31pm Sep 11, 2014 12:31pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
I imagine EUR/RUB short has a better swap, but it isn't offered on the FXCM platform ... .
USD/RUB coming towards reversal,
great entry point for long term trade...
  • #38
  • Sep 11, 2014 1:28pm Sep 11, 2014 1:28pm
Just had an idea after too much coffee ..

1) Short USDRUB with MT4 using a broker of your choice and collect the nice Swap
2) Hedge this by going Long at BTC-E.com https://btc-e.com/exchange/usd_rur (a major Bitcoin exchange)

BTC-E has MT4 but USDRUB is not available to be traded there. You need to use the webinterface. Now if you go Long there you pay no Swap. Just just buy and hold the currency like on some traditional bank currency accounts. The fx rate is of course different due to the very low liquidity and the general effect of a BTC exchange. However I would assume that USDRUB follows to general direction up & down during the day. It does so with EURUSD, more or less with quite some time delays compared to our fast MT4 terminal.

Only problem is that you have no leverage on BTC-E, so its 1:1.

Instead to just hedge for Swap I sense its possible to just wait until this hedge becomes positively unbalanced (its goes into profit). Than just close both pairs and start over.

BTC-E has an API so we can connect this with MT4 using a C dll and automate the whole show.
  • #39
  • Sep 11, 2014 1:37pm Sep 11, 2014 1:37pm
USD/RUB short swap pays about $1 per 0.01 lot.

With a nice entry/seperate account I can hold about 0.75 lots without looking back with:
- 1:400 leverage
- $1000

0.75 USD/RUB short entry:
- %500 margin remaining

For now I can't touch my accounts/transfer to new account due to metal trading as it uses enormous margin, but maybe next week I'll try this.

I started running a cTrader demo account, I will post results later...
  • #40
  • Sep 11, 2014 1:43pm Sep 11, 2014 1:43pm
we should start seeing some price action very soon...
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