Scottish separation vote and impact on GBP spot

I think the vote and the possible outcome deserve a separate topic.
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=503245

Feel free to post informations from all possible sources in this topic.
I´m also interested in whats "your" vote and why?


imho there is a NO, in the end because of negotiations through the UK gouverment to give scottland more room in financial affairs.

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/#slide/1


Scotland's deputy first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, said her campaign's canvassing database showed a "significant shift" on the ground. She said: "What we're finding is that as people do make up their minds, they are more likely to be deciding in favour of yes."
https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/s...48898084405248

Guardian:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...15.1">osition1

Scottish independence: pound could drop 10% in value:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...und-drop-value

Better together alright.
We have had a wonderful ride along together and achieved great things.
Going with that fat moron Salmon is really a leap off the precipice. His Nazi selfish policies are hopeless and won't last long. Already he has discriminated against foreign students.

Great things can be achieved again if we can get some decent politicians into power. Scotland has all powers now of finance etc. and is in a perfect position for future success.

Hey brother, Just saw this thread.

I think it will be NO in the end. The YES folks have made their point loud and clear and I think they've gotten the attention and potential (promise of) results they wanted from it. They sit in a very unique position in that they may just have enough power to go all the way with separation. But if I know human nature at all, in the end they'll want the "easiest path" of resistance. That of course would be to remain a part of the whole IF they get the promise of more control and say over things.

To become their own country might be nice, but it is fraught with problems and challenges that would arise the very moment they did.

In the end, I think that would scare "either or both" enough YES voters to switch sides or enough new NO voters to stand up and voice themselves.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...ependence.html

It will be interesting to see what happens to say the least. Ready the buy & sell buttons but be patient for the "real" effect.

i also tend to a final "NO", because it´s the easiest way, better the devil you know than the devil you don´t know.
All the uncertainty with a new gouverment,... currency? european union? which part of public debt?

voted NO
if YES, new phase for "United Countries/Kingdoms" ahead...!

Morgan Stanley on the Scottish referendum - says sterling to $1.46 if a yes vote

Latest:
Scotland referendum poll YES 48 NO 52

Slightly mis-quoted, year end of 2015 would be 1.46.

So they don't think it would fall to 1.46 straight after a yes vote

Just wondering and i know this is a bit off topic but if the Scottish go with the yes vote, can it cause the housing value in the UK to come down?. aka burst the housing bubble?

Thank You

thank you sure not. food for thought.......

there is no housing bubble in UK.
when CBs hike rate housing will settle. actually housing got fired due to low rates & low volatility of crises period. it will settle.

Thanks MAM. i was just worried as i have a house on the market that is waiting to be sold. I'm probably just over worried and trying to connect dots that are not there lol

real estate never lose. no worries. if not today month later or a year. never fails.
( dont tell me about Detroit pls )

Would be absolutely fantastic if Scotland get independence. In 1999 Great Britain supported separation Kosovo from Serbia of course having explanation for it, and participated in bombing Serbia as member of NATO in order to support separation and convince Serbia to accept it. Fortunately Serbia never accepted it.
Explanation was: 2 million people want to separate from Serbia. That is enough reason.....Same explanation and understanding has to apply to Scotland.

I am so glad Great Britain has same problem on its own...

For independent Scotland!!!

here's my view on gbp and Scotland vote

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...00#post7734100

No vote moves ahead in new poll on Scottish independence

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news...2500febea40097

Latest bookmaker odds!

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/...rendum-outcome

They tend not to be wrong very often on long odds on bets .

Great Britain or Little Britain?
It seems fair to say that Scotland has never been so prominent in the minds of global investors. The 18 Sep referendum on Scottish independence has long been on the calendar but it is only the past week or so that the polls have shifted enough to raise the serious prospect of Scotland voting to leave the United Kingdom.
Should Scotland vote ‘yes’, it is likely that negotiations would take place over many years. As a new nation, Scotland would not have a central bank, armed forces or border control. It would have a questionable financial system; it would have to negotiate its share of legacy UK debt and it could be forced to ‘sterling-ise’ as it tries to create a new currency. The combination of political independence and a shared currency would be a disaster in our view. Foreign investors would question the risks of remaining in a new country, with concerns over both fiscal and monetary policy. Already large banks have revealed plans to move their headquarters from Edinburgh to London in the event of independence. A yes vote could also force a general election in the UK and would clearly disrupt the UK economy.
While there are significant unknowns about the event itself given the structure of the vote (e.g. 16 year olds allowed to vote but not expats), potential turnout and the very simple yes/ no question, the recent trend in the polls confirms the outcome will be extremely close. The YouGov poll last weekend which found 51-49% for ‘yes’ is still the only significant poll to give the Yes vote the lead. So we should not get too carried away. However, the poll clearly demonstrates a clear narrowing in views and this now means that this is a critical driver for the pound. Indeed GBP/USD was 1.6450 a week ago, sliding as far as 1.6052 this week (a low dating to Nov 2013) before new polls showed ‘no’ to still be ahead, providing some relief.
Given the referendum takes place in the same week as the first of the ECB TLTROs and the FOMC meeting where the Fed is expected to debate new language on interest rates, risks are for renewed selling of GBP/USD and EUR/USD at least until the referendum outcome is clear. A ‘no’ vote should see the pound squeeze higher as the Scottish exit risk premium is removed and EUR/GBP selling is likely to resume. But an improved USD mood should limit the bounce in cable as the Fed edges closer to monetary policy normalization.

Oh yeah. I think most of speculators just waiting a dipping or some price upturn, more precisely its end, to enter in retracement, which will obviously take place, as market was forced to experience deviation from its normal value under pressure of fundamental event