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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #14,401
  • Sep 7, 2014 2:02pm Sep 7, 2014 2:02pm
But on the other hand to answer your question on selling on the open...8 out of 10 it is typically a bad move. A reason why it could be a trade is if it is based on a VERY strong fundamental reason as it is the case here. With the supposed risk of Scottish independence campaign that is going to a vote. The reason is that if this happens will Scotland refuse to pay its share of the UK national debt and the spark of cross border money flows and trade. Currency markets hate uncertainty as politicians work out the details. If you add the already bearish sentiment growing it could cause a pound sell-of, this will cause investors and traders to hedge their risks. In conclusion, you should have a TRADE PLAN and if it does not include trading at open then you shouldn't. Another example of money management and discipline more important that technical acumen.
  • #14,402
  • Sep 7, 2014 2:04pm Sep 7, 2014 2:04pm
Quoting Mpt
And 170 has gone​
yeah everybody has woken up to the bearish sentiment, thanks to Scotland !!
  • #14,403
  • Sep 7, 2014 4:14pm Sep 7, 2014 4:14pm
the asians just letting the buy orders get the price up for a big short.
Probably the worlds best currency trader.
  • #14,404
  • Sep 7, 2014 5:51pm Sep 7, 2014 5:51pm
Quoting Wheathermakr
the asians just letting the buy orders get the price up for a big short.
The 61 Fib @ 170.92 zone is a sweet spot for a reversal to the downside with a lot of liquidity. Ill wait for the London session for entry
  • #14,405
  • Sep 7, 2014 9:21pm Sep 7, 2014 9:21pm
Yes, fill our socks on that move....ya know Tokyo wont move it out that range during it's hours.....
  • #14,406
  • Sep 7, 2014 11:38pm Sep 7, 2014 11:38pm
Quoting Mpt
{quote} If it proves to be bearish and it slips under 170.4 and 169.5, make that in less than 2 MONTHS

Out of 168.2 and 166.5, make that less than 2 WEEKS
  • #14,407
  • Sep 8, 2014 12:21am Sep 8, 2014 12:21am
Quoting IveGotQuads
{quote} The 61 Fib @ 170.92 zone is a sweet spot for a reversal to the downside with a lot of liquidity. Ill wait for the London session for entry
So you're saying it's going to move up, then take a big drop? If so, I was thinking the same, but it seems the asian market pushed it right back down to where it started at this week.
  • #14,408
  • Edited 1:57am Sep 8, 2014 1:26am | Edited 1:57am
FYI, the "gap" looks to be the same TL that it gapped over in April 2013. It had its origins back in July 2011 at 125 - an area of some confusion that was accompanied with an intervention from Noda San and his mates.

And that TL was tested at 170.6
  • #14,409
  • Sep 8, 2014 2:09am Sep 8, 2014 2:09am
Quoting 4xNewGuy
{quote} So you're saying it's going to move up, then take a big drop? If so, I was thinking the same, but it seems the asian market pushed it right back down to where it started at this week.
yes, that would have been optimal but the Asian session has its own ways of doing things. More of a range bound entity. In any event I had already made about 60+ pips on the way up on the opening ((couldn't pass up a unique opportunity )and not in a rush to get into a trade till market has chosen the next direction. Sold a smaller position @ 169.67 few mins ago after making lower lows.
  • #14,410
  • Sep 8, 2014 2:36am Sep 8, 2014 2:36am
To be honest, I cant say I know how the markets will behave as the uncertainty is very high and also we have already reached the ADR of this pay so fast...hence my caution and my smaller position size. The next main zone is @ 165 although there is a smaller zone @ 168.40 which is Jan 13,2014 & March 14th support Zone. I will be adding to my small sell position in ABC formations. GL and green pips to everyone
  • #14,411
  • Sep 8, 2014 4:13am Sep 8, 2014 4:13am
Quoting IveGotQuads
{quote} yes, that would have been optimal but the Asian session has its own ways of doing things. More of a range bound entity. In any event I had already made about 60+ pips on the way up on the opening ((couldn't pass up a unique opportunity )and not in a rush to get into a trade till market has chosen the next direction. Sold a smaller position @ 169.67 few mins ago after making lower lows.
I hear ya. I also took about 50 on the way up before it dropped. Sat out on the drop since I haven't encountered a gap like that so far. I wasn't too sure if it was just a stall, or signaling a drop. It's moved up a bit now, so I'll throw in a small short and see how it takes over the next half day or so. This pair is a beast, so I'm not going to get too crazy on it until I can see some kind of trend forming on the 4H chart. Hopefully I'll see something around wendesday/thursday so I can make a decent trade or two by the end of the week.
  • #14,412
  • Sep 8, 2014 10:18am Sep 8, 2014 10:18am
And low and behold, geppy's up at 171.03 right now. Time to test the waters with another small short.
  • #14,413
  • Sep 8, 2014 8:28pm Sep 8, 2014 8:28pm
London really moves the market....like at the open. remember, London is the bank.....Washington is the military......and Rome is the church......
So it pays to play the London Open system.
  • #14,414
  • Sep 8, 2014 10:19pm Sep 8, 2014 10:19pm
Quoting Gbp/jpy
London really moves the market....like at the open. remember, London is the bank.....Washington is the military......and Rome is the church...... So it pays to play the London Open system.
I will definitely keep that in mind. Thank you.
  • #14,415
  • Sep 8, 2014 10:27pm Sep 8, 2014 10:27pm
Quoting IveGotQuads
To be honest, I cant say I know how the markets will behave as the uncertainty is very high and also we have already reached the ADR of this pay so fast...hence my caution and my smaller position size. The next main zone is @ 165 although there is a smaller zone @ 168.40 which is Jan 13,2014 & March 14th support Zone. I will be adding to my small sell position in ABC formations. GL and green pips to everyone
yeah took a 20 pip loss on like half my regular position size so it wasn't a serious dent to earlier profits. Just so mad I was at work and couldn't trade the 3 bar reversal on the 1 HR that move was like 100 pips. I have been working on my greed lately....with so many home-run like consecutive winners we can get complacent.
  • #14,416
  • Sep 8, 2014 10:31pm Sep 8, 2014 10:31pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Persian Gulf forever
  • #14,417
  • Sep 8, 2014 11:38pm Sep 8, 2014 11:38pm
Quoting IveGotQuads
{quote} yeah took a 20 pip loss on like half my regular position size so it wasn't a serious dent to earlier profits. Just so mad I was at work and couldn't trade the 3 bar reversal on the 1 HR that move was like 100 pips. I have been working on my greed lately....with so many home-run like consecutive winners we can get complacent.
Same here. That was the move I was hoping for when the markets opened for the week. I took my profit with 50 pips, went to work, looked at the screen when I got home, and screamed many obscenities. I'm not ready to be a full-time trader just yet, but it's times like this that I wish I was. That would've been a $1500 day for me.
  • #14,418
  • Sep 8, 2014 11:49pm Sep 8, 2014 11:49pm
Quoting parsfx
{image}
I agree. It's questionable which way it's going to go. Maybe the Carney speech will shed some light on that subject, and give it a push. If there are some good or bad industry numbers, it'll push it a bit, but likely retract back until Carney drops the bomb, or his speech just bombs then the sentiment decides where to take it. This is what I'm seeing right now. If Carney's speech is yawn-worthy, I'm thinking it will run a slow bullish trend until the dust settles about Scotland. There's plenty of people speculating a drop, but considering Carney's looking to increase the interest rate, and there's not a whole lot of fundamentals outside of the Scotland deal right now hinting at a drop, I'm seeing it range between 171 and 173 until something changes the game.
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  • #14,419
  • Sep 9, 2014 5:10am Sep 9, 2014 5:10am
The gap may appear closed ... but it would have to get to 172 to close what is a 40 pip wide gap. It remains.
  • #14,420
  • Sep 9, 2014 6:01pm Sep 9, 2014 6:01pm
Quoting 4xNewGuy
{quote} I will definitely keep that in mind. Thank you.
And the short term......15M....with a 333 sma.....and maybe a 34,3,3, slo sto!
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