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The similarity system

  • #7,541
  • Sep 7, 2014 4:50pm Sep 7, 2014 4:50pm
[quote=scardi;7722453][quote=Eurusdd, Post 54: "...........I expected a similarity at A after the 1hr bar closed but none appeared.........." Which bar do you mean? The green one, pointed by your arrow, or the previous red one? "...so that means price had to go up before it can come down again in order to get similarity!!!.... " How do you know that price had to go up, before it can come down? It's not clear how you make your trade decisions. Thank You![/quote]

Hey scardi, If you look at the 2 green spikes on the CI, that represents a Similarity, the first red spike after on the 30 min chart represents a dis similarity, that can be used as a trade signal because, the 1 hr candle closed in the 1 hr chart without a red spike.

Look at the circle on the two charts and compare. Sorry wrong quote I was replying to.


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1372345205
  • #7,542
  • Sep 7, 2014 4:58pm Sep 7, 2014 4:58pm
[quote=scardi;7722453][quote=Eurusdd, Post 54: "...........I expected a similarity at A after the 1hr bar closed but none appeared.........." Which bar do you mean? The green one, pointed by your arrow, or the previous red one? "...so that means price had to go up before it can come down again in order to get similarity!!!.... " How do you know that price had to go up, before it can come down? It's not clear how you make your trade decisions. Thank You![/quote]

Quoting Eurusdd
Why is EURUSD heading back uup? I posted this chart earlier and said that I traded the move but the window was closing(check post 47)! This is what I meant!!! I expected a similarity at A after the 1hr bar closed but none appeared, so that means price had to go up before it can come down again in order to get similarity!!! Because this is a 30min/1hr pair, you make your decision when the 1hr bar closes!!!{image}
At bar marked A there should have been a red spike down on the 1 hr chart, there was none; price could NOT continue down and produce a red spike on the 1 hr chart. Price would first have to climb up in order to produce the spike.

EURUSDD said that the CI is the least used in the Similarity principle but I think it was abandoned too early in the thread, it has many good lessons left.
  • #7,543
  • Sep 7, 2014 5:14pm Sep 7, 2014 5:14pm
Quoting handy148
vlady - read that you had a chance to see Cloggie trading live. That must have been an education - that guy is a legend.
Hey there! Yes I did. 3x in fact. If I'm right this was back in 2009/2010.

I think by the third time I began to understand the extent of which I had to relearn alot of stuff.
But that wasn't because what I'd learned was "wrong" per se... just in the wrong order.

Beginners will often get taught ABC or 123 trading. That's how I got started.
AB is a range, C is about 50%. That was a Gann technique as mentioned by the "expert" who taught me....1996.

Then there's things like Support/Resistence. Then breakouts.
Then you graduate to Moving Average Crosses, Pivot Points and other lagging indicators

Then you get into wild stuff like Elliot Waves, Murrey Math Lines, Gann Geometry, Gann Astronomical/Astrological
Then you get into Automation and Expert Advisors.

And then finally you get back to reading price action. Because most of the above, ever deals with one chart.
But as soon as you start seeing Price = Time... then you get into a weird place where nothing you learned was useless.... you've retained it all it's just putting it into a sequence that begins to work for you.

Cloggie confirmed for me for example, that EU moved in 20 pips. 19.5 in fact. This is a number I knew well from Gann studies.
But he added the notion that if I knew about moves (eg. ADR, ATR).... why would I be looking for a 40 pip move at the end of the day when 120 pips have beed done?

Stuff like that 3 years ago was a revelation. And soon, you could see that he'ls combining EVERYTHING.... he's got fundamentals and technicals and extrapolation. That's what prompted me to alter my method(s). It changed me from being just a 10 pip scalper to being able to get 50-100 pips and more. Still working on my 1000 pip trading week though.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,544
  • Sep 7, 2014 6:08pm Sep 7, 2014 6:08pm
Just passing thru. Hmmm
  • #7,545
  • Sep 7, 2014 7:34pm Sep 7, 2014 7:34pm
Quoting bluehawaii
Hi, First of all, i want to thank Eurussd and all of members here. This is really nice thread i have ever found. I have read this thread, and other Eurusdd's threads. It takes long time, more than 1 month for me to understand these. But i am happy, finally i can finish read them all, and i found it is so amazing. I have traded Forex for some years (not a full time trader), and i got loss, and loss, and loss . The good indicators i found was : 3 EMA cross for long term trading (H4) and Fibo retrace level (harmonic pattern). I like scalping, so...
Welcome on board bluehawaii. You are at the right place, the free world thread. All of us here are human - not God, so we are not perfect. Some times our prediction can wrong (1-2% only) , but you can see that some of us here are really good traders that have sharp analysis. And all of us here are not Demon, so you can not find any bad words, nor any noise, nor any bad insults. You are free to express your idea here, and i believe there are so many good guys will help each other.
So far, i found this thread is the best in FF too. If you are diligent and invest your time to read and think about the concept, you will be great ... i am sure about it. From your picture i can say that you have got some thing, congratulation
  • #7,546
  • Edited 8:13pm Sep 7, 2014 7:36pm | Edited 8:13pm
Quoting Eurusdd
Just passing thru. Hmmm
Nice to see you buddy .....

Quoting Baillie
{quote} At bar marked A there should have been a red spike down on the 1 hr chart, there was none; price could NOT continue down and produce a red spike on the 1 hr chart. Price would first have to climb up in order to produce the spike. EURUSDD said that the CI is the least used in the Similarity principle but I think it was abandoned too early in the thread, it has many good lessons left.
Hi Baillie,
We must see at the dis-similarity AFTER the candle H1 close, right ? In case at the time candle H1 closed, there is no red spike at H1, and there was a spike at M30. Then we find a dis-similarity, and we put a sell order, right ? Can you explain why the price could not continue down ?
Thanks.
  • #7,547
  • Sep 7, 2014 8:35pm Sep 7, 2014 8:35pm
Quoting tbird2121
{quote} Welcome on board bluehawaii. You are at the right place, the free world thread. All of us here are human - not God, so we are not perfect. Some times our prediction can wrong (1-2% only) , but you can see that some of us here are really good traders that have sharp analysis. And all of us here are not Demon, so you can not find any bad words, nor any noise, nor any bad insults. You are free to express your idea here, and i believe there are so many good guys will help each other. So far, i found this thread is the best in FF too. If you...
Thanks tbird, all of the discussions here are great. They help me a lot

Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Hey there! Yes I did. 3x in fact. If I'm right this was back in 2009/2010. I think by the third time I began to understand the extent of which I had to relearn alot of stuff. But that wasn't because what I'd learned was "wrong" per se... just in the wrong order. Beginners will often get taught ABC or 123 trading. That's how I got started. AB is a range, C is about 50%. That was a Gann technique as mentioned by the "expert" who taught me....1996. Then there's things like Support/Resistence. Then breakouts. Then you graduate to Moving Average...
This is a very good post Vlady, Thanks. I liked to play with Murrey Math too some time ago. I was playing with Currency Strength last year. Is it a good idea to combine Currency Strengh to my currently developing system ?
  • #7,548
  • Sep 7, 2014 9:51pm Sep 7, 2014 9:51pm
Quoting Eurusdd
Just passing thru. Hmmm
"a delicate secret" solved, i realized all the reverse psychology in your words and i can say "always return" was a false phrase even though the prob is quite high indeed )
Don't use both feet to test the depth of the river
  • #7,549
  • Sep 7, 2014 11:44pm Sep 7, 2014 11:44pm
Hi All,

This is a really goooooood thread. Thanks Eurusdd. Any body know where can i find good Adr & Atr indicator for MT4 ?
I just found this for Atr : http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=280319
and this for Adr : http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=479429
Just found it today, do not know it is good or not. Any other link is appreciated . Trying to participate by sending H4 EurUsd chart.

Thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU-H4-atr-dailyrange.jpg Size: 87 KB
  • #7,550
  • Sep 8, 2014 12:32am Sep 8, 2014 12:32am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} I am currently still short from 2967, stops to BE. Debating whether to close at 48 and call it a week. I am still bear biased. However on the very short term, given where price is, I have a sneaking suspicion that may continue to consolidate. But not really sure. 1H and 15M sequence suggests the next one is down. This is what worries me.... if it does print a bottom on the 15M and it doesn't clear 2920 then we're sideways. What I wish won't happen is sideways until Thurs or Friday.... 3 days of meat grinder. {image}
My tp of 2938 was hit.Looking to re-enter. Short.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,551
  • Edited 2:40am Sep 8, 2014 12:35am | Edited 2:40am
Hi,
This is my chart EU using TF H1. One question: will TR/TZ having bigger probability than the DS zone ?
If Dis-Similarity has bigger probability, it will goes up to touch the nearest blue zone, then goes down.
But EU is in down trend, and may be the Dis-similarity zone can not be touch ??? It means, from today, EU will go down very deep ....
Thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU-H1-TZ-DS.jpg Size: 95 KB
  • #7,552
  • Edited 1:11am Sep 8, 2014 12:44am | Edited 1:11am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} My tp of 2938 was hit.Looking to re-enter. Short.
Hi Vlady,
For EU, Will you put a Sell Limit order at 2968 - 2975 ( i got a dis-similarity zone around there ), or you will put a market order (short) after London market open ?

===
This image is NU M15.
I try to look at ZZ+BB , it is not COBB (top) at the moment. Does it mean that it will goes up to touch upper BB, before going down ?

Thanks

===
Edit, for EU M30 :

a) IF it touch 2968 or 2971 , but close below 2968 : I do a Sell , TP is floating, SL 10 pips
b) ELSE IF it touch 2971 and close above 2968, i will wait for 2975. If it touch 2975, but close below it, i will do a Sell , TP is floating, SL 10 pips
c) ELSE IF it does not touch 2968, and goes down, i will do a Buy if it touch 2921, but close above it (hammer ?) , but this will not long (current trend is down). So, my SL is 2916, my TP is 2928 for this Buy. And waiting for Sell opportunity.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NU-M15-BB-ZZ.jpg Size: 99 KB
  • #7,553
  • Sep 8, 2014 1:12am Sep 8, 2014 1:12am
Quoting probabilita
{quote} Hi Vlady, For EU, Will you put a Sell Limit order at 2968 - 2975 ( i got a dis-similarity zone around there ), or you will put a market order (short) after London market open ? === This image is NU M15. I try to look at ZZ+BB , it is not COBB (top) at the moment. Does it mean that it will goes up to touch upper BB, before going down ? Thanks {image}
Excellent question...
Always try not to expect what it will do. But put plans in place if it goes to all areas where it could go.

If Then, Else.

If it goes above, look to sell on a retrace
If it goes above and continues, SL should be affordable
If it goes above don't sell but wait for break of mid then sell (perhaps add to position if already sold)
If it goes above and breaks mid perhaps add to short if previous swing low is taken.
Always look to higher TFs for signs that will invalidate smaller TF.
Always look for news or events that coincide with time of your entry

if it goes above mid and touches upper line but doesn't COBB it's a sign of weakness, is a signal not a trigger.
it could be a trigger but you can use candles, SR or whatever to guide your entry. There are thousands of trigger/entry techniques that reduce risk.

To me, that last swing top is the key level.if you're aggressive and know the pair, you could have shorted. If it's prone to whiplash, then wait for a break of 8306. If then, if then, if then.

A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,554
  • Sep 8, 2014 1:17am Sep 8, 2014 1:17am
Short again at 2935.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,555
  • Sep 8, 2014 1:20am Sep 8, 2014 1:20am
@probabilita

if you look at EU 15M and 5M you can see an example of Cobb lower but 5M continues to hug lower than the BB line and go lower when it fails to cross the BB mid.Close is important, not the wick.

edit: also, broke support at 2942 which my 2938 tp was based on. I have another support at 2918 so looking to add at 2915.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,556
  • Sep 8, 2014 1:27am Sep 8, 2014 1:27am
Quoting vlady1974
@probabilita if you look at EU 15M and 5M you can see an example of Cobb lower but 5M continues to hug lower than the BB line and go lower when it fails to cross the BB mid.Close is important, not the wick.
This means, if it touch the mid of BB in M5 or M15, but Not close above it, it is a signal for Sell at that point ?
Shall we look at M5 or M15 in this case ?

Edit:
i think i should look at the Close of bigger TF , in this case M15, then do action. Is it right ?
And 2942 is interesting price at the moment for me .... it is the mid of BB in M15 and top BB in M5.

Edit again:
But the mid of Tz is about 29444 ... so 2942 - 2944 could be the top .
  • #7,557
  • Sep 8, 2014 1:33am Sep 8, 2014 1:33am
Quoting probabilita
{quote} This means, if it touch the mid of BB in M5 or M15, but Not close above it, it is a signal for Sell at that point ? Shall we look at M5 or M15 in this case ? Edit: i think i should look at the Close of bigger TF , in this case M15, then do action. Is it right ?
Failure is assign of weakness. It is up to you to define trigger to sell or buy.
Weakness is a signal to say there is an opportunity. Trigger says you know what the RISK is and what your expected reward is....they are 2 different things.

if it touches Mid and doesn't close above it In Any Timeframe, it is weakness.
Trigger will depend on your entry technique or strategy....that's up to your style.....Fade, breakout, 5 pips below support, retracement, pivot point, fib point, trendline break, etc etc etc.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,558
  • Sep 8, 2014 1:42am Sep 8, 2014 1:42am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Failure is assign of weakness. It is up to you to define trigger to sell or buy. Weakness is a signal to say there is an opportunity. Trigger says you know what the RISK is and what your expected reward is....they are 2 different things. if it touches Mid and doesn't close above it In Any Timeframe, it is weakness. Trigger will depend on your entry technique or strategy....that's up to your style.....Fade, breakout, 5 pips below support, retracement, pivot point, fib point, trendline break, etc etc etc.
Thanks Vlady .
  • #7,559
  • Sep 8, 2014 2:01am Sep 8, 2014 2:01am
Hello guys, Hope you're all pipping. Levels im looking at for short.1.2953/58, 1.2988 and 1.2919 observe price action around these numbers. vlady1974 Hope youve been pipping mate
  • #7,560
  • Sep 8, 2014 3:02am Sep 8, 2014 3:02am
entered short 1.2943 10pips stop
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