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AUD/USD

  • #84,501
  • Sep 5, 2014 2:19am Sep 5, 2014 2:19am
Quoting RBlackburn
I'm sticking with my scalping analysis from earlier...see how this goes. {image}
Can I ask what charts your using and what is your strategy? I'm new to the forums.
  • #84,502
  • Sep 5, 2014 3:02am Sep 5, 2014 3:02am
Quoting andyiglesias
{quote} Can I ask what charts your using and what is your strategy? I'm new to the forums.
Hi, i'm just using standard candlesticks and all time-frames for analysis.
When i post idea's i'll just attach whatever Time-frame shows my view clearly..depends on the set-up and the expected length of the trade...

As for strategy... i just identify main levels where price has found orders recently and play off those while trying to identify strength and weakness in momentum and volume...
I just trade what i see and keep stops tight behind strong levels...
If a trade is working in my favour i'll let it run while checking higher TF's for possible targets and trailing my stop on lower time-frame...in a scalping kind of fashion...

I Hope that makes some sense and answers your questions

Welcome to the forums...
Good luck with your trading.
  • #84,503
  • Sep 5, 2014 3:24am Sep 5, 2014 3:24am
Quoting RBlackburn
{quote} Hi, i'm just using standard candlesticks and all time-frames for analysis. When i post idea's i'll just attach whatever Time-frame shows my view clearly..depends on the set-up and the expected length of the trade... As for strategy... i just identify main levels where price has found orders recently and play off those while trying to identify strength and weakness in momentum and volume... I just trade what i see and keep stops tight behind strong levels... If a trade is working in my favour i'll let it run while checking higher TF's for...
Thank you, I'll just pm you so I can ask the silly questions ha.
  • #84,504
  • Sep 5, 2014 3:24am Sep 5, 2014 3:24am
Quoting RBlackburn
I'm sticking with my scalping analysis from earlier...see how this goes. {image}
We might not have time for a pullback... I'm just going to stay long with stop below the daily pivot @ 0.9356
  • #84,505
  • Sep 5, 2014 5:34am Sep 5, 2014 5:34am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Nice, just let me know when the is n I'll bring some chips. AU Going back to top imo with daily H&S. It has being hinting at for a while imo, I just haven't had the confidence to keep my longs open as per TA and I keep buying from higher, though am locking in profits. Gold is also interesting atm. Possibly seen the daily low and is now heading back to top though is strongly unconfirmed and will need a break above todays high of 1277, otherwise it could break below the todays 4hr channel... pips which ever way. and don't forget...
TA ftw
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #84,506
  • Sep 6, 2014 2:45am Sep 6, 2014 2:45am
everything as predicted (read forum) .

Next week we are going down very quickly! All unemployment figures are very optimistic in calendar and real figures will be much worse! I know business from inside. So, good bulls unload could start from monday or tuesday ... we will see ANZ Job Advertisements m/m on monday and then I will tell you about Thursday move.

I expect for next week drop below 0.93
  • #84,507
  • Sep 6, 2014 10:25am Sep 6, 2014 10:25am
An interesting article for anyone that follows the fundamentals of Australia.
http://www.afr.com/p/national/econom...C0xWJoEW6X4wGJ

  • #84,508
  • Sep 6, 2014 8:56pm Sep 6, 2014 8:56pm
Quoting srt
An interesting article for anyone that follows the fundamentals of Australia. http://www.afr.com/p/national/econom...C0xWJoEW6X4wGJ

This is basically something not unexpected. It has been in the news all year about money trying to swing from mining to other industries. Our real estate/ building industries are beginning to take up the slack, though it's not to say that the price of iron ore etc isn't going to hurt.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #84,509
  • Sep 7, 2014 1:25am Sep 7, 2014 1:25am
Quoting srt
An interesting article for anyone that follows the fundamentals of Australia. http://www.afr.com/p/national/econom...C0xWJoEW6X4wGJ
Watch AJ for weakness.It is very stretched and due for correction.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #84,510
  • Sep 7, 2014 1:30am Sep 7, 2014 1:30am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} This is basically something not unexpected. It has been in the news all year about money trying to swing from mining to other industries. Our real estate/ building industries are beginning to take up the slack, though it's not to say that the price of iron ore etc isn't going to hurt.
Stevens would not cut rates(for time being) Aussie held real well against USD in comparison to other USD pairs like EU and GU which got killed.
This could be short price action fad.In weekly chart I will sell aggressively above 94.I anticipate Aussie trading below 90 by Year's end.
Fundamentals are weak.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...d-quarter.html
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #84,511
  • Sep 7, 2014 4:02am Sep 7, 2014 4:02am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} This is basically something not unexpected. It has been in the news all year about money trying to swing from mining to other industries. Our real estate/ building industries are beginning to take up the slack, though it's not to say that the price of iron ore etc isn't going to hurt.
I have to admit that prior to reading that article, I have been trying to buy AU thinking the PA looked bullish though in a sideways channel. I'm expecting a break out of the top of the channel. It seems to be one of the few currencies holding up better against the US$. That's why at times I feel it's almost a bad idea to read fundamentals as it can give me a bias rather than just trade what's on the chart. The article is probably just one person's opinion so the next article could have the opposite opinion.
  • #84,512
  • Sep 7, 2014 4:03am Sep 7, 2014 4:03am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Watch AJ for weakness.It is very stretched and due for correction. Regards
I won't touch that chart from the short side even if stretched. I had orders to buy on a dip. Yen is too weak as I expect UJ to get to 108-110 in the not too distant future.
  • #84,513
  • Sep 7, 2014 5:16am Sep 7, 2014 5:16am
Australian unemployment is in a strong uptrend. I'm thinking this week's print will bring more bad news and a strong dip.
  • #84,514
  • Sep 7, 2014 6:39pm Sep 7, 2014 6:39pm
Quoting DonaldPump
Australian unemployment is in a strong uptrend. I'm thinking this week's print will bring more bad news and a strong dip.
Yes, I agree but current today figures revealed bit improvement ... my expectation +20K on Thursday employment change and AUD jump ... but I feel that last week pattern will be repeated this week. .... so expecting dive today or tuesday.
  • #84,515
  • Sep 7, 2014 8:00pm Sep 7, 2014 8:00pm
Aussie should trade above today's daily pivot @ 0.93700 for more upside.
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  • #84,516
  • Sep 7, 2014 8:01pm Sep 7, 2014 8:01pm
It's also a major 50% retracement as shown here...
Trading above this level will see another test of the 94 mark and most likely a break...
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  • #84,517
  • Sep 7, 2014 8:02pm Sep 7, 2014 8:02pm
Quoting RBlackburn
It's also a major 50% retracement as shown here... Trading above this level will see another test of the 94 mark and most likely a break... {image}
0.9447 (78% fib) would be a reasonable target for today...
  • #84,518
  • Sep 7, 2014 8:20pm Sep 7, 2014 8:20pm
I think that target was a bit wrong... it should be about 0.9416 - 0.9423
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  • #84,519
  • Sep 7, 2014 10:24pm Sep 7, 2014 10:24pm
I still don't get it!! why this stupid pair resist to go down?? The USD is forcing all pairs expect this one!!! what's going on??
  • #84,520
  • Sep 7, 2014 10:47pm Sep 7, 2014 10:47pm
There are two scenarios here:

1- continue to go up targeting 1.9447 zone ...
2- going down slowly slowly till 1.9210 zone (which is something I doubt to happen soon)...

if the next news for AUD employment and unemployment is positive positive, then going up for a short term higher than 1.9447 is valid. of course that depends on where the price is at that time.

if after all the FED decided to rise the up the interest rate % then it will shoot down forcibly even it ('AUD') is in good conditions.

BTW, the level 1.9330 is the deadline. if 4h closed under that level, then we will see it heading south to 1.9210 and if not, then the pullback is valid to 1.9447 zone...
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