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NZD/USD

  • #7,661
  • Sep 4, 2014 11:13pm Sep 4, 2014 11:13pm
Quoting Corral
{quote} Skyhok,Where this pair will stop falling? Can it back to .865 area again??Thanks
Wave count shows NZDUSD is at the beginning of a wave (v) down from 2nd Sep high, with likely targets on chart, before making a 1-2 months correction.
This count could be invalidated if it breaks red upper channel line @ 0.8350.

Looking at NZDUSD's correlations, very much to EURUSD and GBPUSD, I think it is moving towards the downside in short term at least.

Currency AUDCAD AUDJPY AUDNZD EURAUD EURJPY EURUSD GBPJPY GBPUSD USDCAD USDJPY
NZDUSD -82.4% -54.7% -96.8% 77.4% 60.6% 94.4% 68.6% 94.2% -90.8% -84.3%

http://www.myfxbook.com/forex-market/correlation

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #7,662
  • Sep 4, 2014 11:23pm Sep 4, 2014 11:23pm
Quoting zew
{quote} It will and even higher than 0.88, but you have to wait....
Are sure bro? BeCause my account already -$5000 T.T..If it can go to .88 i will top up my account...but i dont wanna loose my saving account, what should i do T.T
  • #7,663
  • Edited 11:50pm Sep 4, 2014 11:30pm | Edited 11:50pm
[quote=skyhok;7718978]{quote} Wave count shows NZDUSD is at the beginning of a wave (v) down from 2nd Sep high, with likely targets on chart, before making a 1-2 months correction. This count could be invalidated if it breaks red upper channel line @ 0.8350. Looking at NZDUSD's correlations, very much to EURUSD and GBPUSD, I think it is moving towards the downside in short term at least. Currency AUDCAD AUDJPY AUDNZD EURAUD EURJPY EURUSD GBPJPY GBPUSD USDCAD USDJPY NZDUSD -82.4% -54.7% -96.8% 77.4% 60.6% 94.4% 68.6% 94.2% -90.8% -84.3%


Ehmmm... such a far away from here..now i hedge my nzd/usd with -$5000, what you think about nzd? Will it grow up in the next 1-2 years? Will it back to .865? Should release my hedge and let the loose run? Do you know which support line that have a power? Or maybe i hedge till .80 and release the hedge?
  • #7,664
  • Sep 4, 2014 11:55pm Sep 4, 2014 11:55pm
Quoting Corral
Quoting skyhok
{quote} Wave count shows NZDUSD is at the beginning of a wave (v) down from 2nd Sep high, with likely targets on chart, before making a 1-2 months correction. This count could be invalidated if it breaks red upper channel line @ 0.8350. Looking at NZDUSD's correlations, very much to EURUSD and GBPUSD, I think it is moving towards the downside in short term at least. Currency AUDCAD AUDJPY AUDNZD EURAUD EURJPY EURUSD GBPJPY GBPUSD USDCAD USDJPY NZDUSD -82.4% -54.7% -96.8% 77.4% 60.6% 94.4% 68.6% 94.2% -90.8% -84.3% Ehmmm...
...
You sound like you should't even be trading. Take the loss now before it grows bigger and you regret it further. Unless you have a clear trading plan to trade out of this.
  • #7,665
  • Sep 5, 2014 12:30am Sep 5, 2014 12:30am
[quote=Corral;7718999]
Quoting skyhok
{quote} Will it grow up in the next 1-2 years? Will it back to .865? Should release my hedge and let the loose run? Do you know which support line that have a power? Or maybe i hedge till .80 and release the hedge?
The Market can do anything of course but if you look at the monthly the kiwi has been in an uptrend since about June of 2012 with higher highs at about 14 and 15 months. In fact if you view 2011 as a statistical anomaly then you can go back to Oct 2009 high with very regular peaks at 13 to 15 months. So the chances are pretty good of an uptrend from about a low of .81500 in a couple of months to .90 odd in June next year. So double you hedge to play the downtrend now and drop it at .82.
WARNING I had the same feeling in Jan 2008 with the US Aussie and blew a 12 grand account when I couldn't find the Next Margin payment about 300 PIPs from the bottom no hedge. Now I will just bail out and take the loss and free my mind for good trading to make the loss back in a couple of months in a different Pair.
Good Luck and Good trading
Lets go grab some PIPS
  • #7,666
  • Sep 5, 2014 1:25am Sep 5, 2014 1:25am
Quoting Corral
{quote} Skyhok,Where this pair will stop falling? Can it back to .865 area again??Thanks
There you are, you've got the technical view and expert fundamentals of NZDUSD.
All the best to your decision and trades.
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #7,667
  • Sep 5, 2014 6:25am Sep 5, 2014 6:25am
Quoting Corral
{quote} Are sure bro? BeCause my account already -$5000 T.T..If it can go to .88 i will top up my account...but i dont wanna loose my saving account, what should i do T.T
You are down -5000 WOW bro you need stop
  • #7,668
  • Sep 5, 2014 10:58am Sep 5, 2014 10:58am
my h4 view, waiting 82 level, have a nice weekend
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  • #7,669
  • Sep 5, 2014 11:12am Sep 5, 2014 11:12am
Quoting srt
{quote} Update: Price entered "Buy Zone" & returned to S/R now returning to "Buy Zone". I traded the bounce but now I'll probably wait for an entry near the bottom of the zone for my next entry long. {image}
2nd Update:

Price still bouncing in daily "Buy Zone" so would like to see a break above the box now & bounce off the top.
S/R pretty close above that will be next hurdle.
I'll be watching next week for long entry if this level holds.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,670
  • Sep 5, 2014 12:19pm Sep 5, 2014 12:19pm
Quoting srt
{quote} 2nd Update: Price still bouncing in daily "Buy Zone" so would like to see a break above the box now & bounce off the top. S/R pretty close above that will be next hurdle. I'll be watching next week for long entry if this level holds. {image} {image}
Your buy zone is 50%fib at .8260?
  • #7,671
  • Sep 5, 2014 12:49pm Sep 5, 2014 12:49pm
Quoting Corral
{quote} Your buy zone is 50%fib at .8260?
No, the buy zone based only upon the price action from the daily chart in late february. The top & bottom of the zone are now acting as support & resistance so would like to see a break out of the top though I may attempt a buy inside the box with a small SL.
  • #7,672
  • Sep 5, 2014 4:28pm Sep 5, 2014 4:28pm
Quoting srt
{quote} 2nd Update: Price still bouncing in daily "Buy Zone" so would like to see a break above the box now & bounce off the top. S/R pretty close above that will be next hurdle. I'll be watching next week for long entry if this level holds. {image} {image}
Just some helpful advice, if you reading supply and demand you would know this is not a good level at all. Not only has it been used twice but you want to wait for price to LEAVE the area then get in? Talk about a. low probability b. high risk + you need a bigger stoploss
Here it is
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All posts are my personal opinion
  • #7,673
  • Sep 5, 2014 4:29pm Sep 5, 2014 4:29pm
This is the level you want to wait for before attempting any longs
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All posts are my personal opinion
  • #7,674
  • Sep 5, 2014 5:12pm Sep 5, 2014 5:12pm
Quoting srt
{quote} No, the buy zone based only upon the price action from the daily chart in late february. The top & bottom of the zone are now acting as support & resistance so would like to see a break out of the top though I may attempt a buy inside the box with a small SL.
I think, this fall because usd strengh agaisnt any currency spesially with new zealand.. but nzd more strength against other currency except the usd, so in matter of time/wait for usd weak and this pair will go up? Maybe at .80-.81, as euro/usd will be at 61%fib at 1.275?
  • #7,675
  • Sep 5, 2014 5:45pm Sep 5, 2014 5:45pm
Quoting Rtm
{quote} Just some helpful advice, if you reading supply and demand you would know this is not a good level at all. Not only has it been used twice but you want to wait for price to LEAVE the area then get in? Talk about a. low probability b. high risk + you need a bigger stoploss Here it is {image}
I agree the lower level is better but I usually watch the levels as price nears them. If this level wasn't any good, why is price bouncing off the bottom & top of the box? I took one long just the first time price got to the box & up to the S/R line but didn't watch it close enough when it got to the bottom of the box or I would have taken another bounce trade off the bottom.
Untested supply/demand are better but I'm willing to take small scalps off the mediocre levels.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,676
  • Sep 5, 2014 6:04pm Sep 5, 2014 6:04pm
Quoting srt
{quote} I agree the lower level is better but I usually watch the levels as price nears them. If this level wasn't any good, why is price bouncing off the bottom & top of the box? I took one long just the first time price got to the box & up to the S/R line but didn't watch it close enough when it got to the bottom of the box or I would have taken another bounce trade off the bottom. Untested supply/demand are better but I'm willing to take small scalps off the mediocre levels. {image}
Okaythis is clear now! Yes that makes perfect sense, happy pips!
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #7,677
  • Sep 5, 2014 6:07pm Sep 5, 2014 6:07pm
Quoting srt
{quote} I agree the lower level is better but I usually watch the levels as price nears them. If this level wasn't any good, why is price bouncing off the bottom & top of the box? I took one long just the first time price got to the box & up to the S/R line but didn't watch it close enough when it got to the bottom of the box or I would have taken another bounce trade off the bottom. Untested supply/demand are better but I'm willing to take small scalps off the mediocre levels. {image}
Agree on Long.My system agrees strongly
Should of got in at 8270...
Word of caution on NZ dollar.Be mindful of dairy action days.Last actions have progressively declined prices effected sharp drops on NZ dollar.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #7,678
  • Sep 5, 2014 6:12pm Sep 5, 2014 6:12pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Agree on Long.My system agrees strongly Should of got in at 8270... Word of caution on NZ dollar.Be mindful of dairy action days.Last actions have progressively declined prices effected sharp drops on NZ dollar. {image}
After reading some fundi stuff later today, I've lost a bit of my bullishness on NU but I'm still willing to buy with a SL if a good setup appears.
Yes, FF should put the dairy auctions on the High impact news events.

***I commented on your GU post that the cycle indentifier repaints. Just an FYI.
  • #7,679
  • Sep 5, 2014 6:17pm Sep 5, 2014 6:17pm
Quoting srt
{quote} After reading some fundi stuff later today, I've lost a bit of my bullishness on NU but I'm still willing to buy with a SL if a good setup appears. Yes, FF should put the dairy auctions on the High impact news events. ***I commented on your GU post that the cycle indentifier repaints. Just an FYI.
Next day Sept 16
We might get run up until 16 then safe thing is to get out before the auction
http://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/
Attached Image
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #7,680
  • Sep 5, 2014 9:30pm Sep 5, 2014 9:30pm
Quoting srt
{quote} I agree the lower level is better but I usually watch the levels as price nears them. If this level wasn't any good, why is price bouncing off the bottom & top of the box? I took one long just the first time price got to the box & up to the S/R line but didn't watch it close enough when it got to the bottom of the box or I would have taken another bounce trade off the bottom. Untested supply/demand are better but I'm willing to take small scalps off the mediocre levels. {image}
Good chance but better to sell the dips...in case u sleep and your tp fails because of 1 pip....look at eur nzd guys theres some big move growing to the up side.
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