Trend Following end-of-day Channel Breakouts by michal9

I started trading in 2011 and am still in the business. This journal opens a new chapter in my trading operations.

I plan to flawlessly execute a trend following system, on an end-of-day basis, to become consistently profitable now with this method.

This journal is to record my progress, motivate me to execute the plan by making it a public commitment, and to learn from others.
I also hope people will find this journal helpful.

The system I am going to trade is Chanel breakout, as defined in a book "How to Make a Living Trading Foreign Exchange" by Courtney Smith.
Another book that contributed to my decision to do trend following and inspired this approach is "Diary of a Professional Commodity Trader" by Peter Brandt.
And lastly, one more inspiration book was "The Little Book of Trading: Trend Following" by Michel Covel. (note these are NOT affiliate links, I provide them just for your convenience)

The system, in a nutshell... Channel Breakout: it is to place a buy stop above the last 55-days high. Stop loss at the last bar. Exit if the price does not close above the channel for the first two days (this is called a rejection rule, and is in place if the channel line was flat or declinig for at least 5 days, it applies right after the trade was opened, and also while managing the trade as an exit signal), exit if ADX turns down from 40, and trail the stop to last 20 days low. Reverse the rules for short. I will also use a multi-unit tactic and exit half of the trade, for profit at around 1R, i.e. a distance of the initial stop. ADX shows a strength of a trend. If it is above 35-40, it means trend is very strong, if it then turns down, it indicates a trend may soon reverse or at least correct. Buying the break of 55 high ensures we will participate in a big trend, if there is a big trend. Last bar stop and a rejection rule make our losses small. Trailing the stop lets the profits run and not exit on a noise, while exiting on ADX turn down often let's us exit close to the top. Lastly, there is an ADX filter: the buy stop order should be in place only if the ADX is raising, i.e. the trend is gaining strength. Buy stop order needs to look at Ask price, sell top at Bid, of course. And I will add 3 pips for majors and 5 pips for crosses to avoid some false breaks. See below how I am going to try to profit from some false breaks.

I will also trade a "ride the rejection rule" setup, from the Courtney book. If the price fails to close above the breakout channel level for the first two days, I will exit at market on close and reverse the position, and close it on the following day, hopefully at profit, while the stop loss on this setup is above last bar high. I will provide a more detailed system description later.

Position size. As this is a learning phase I will use minimal trade size. 0.02 lots per trade. Not 0.01 as I want to be able to close half of the position.

Markets. I will look at roughly 20 forex pairs. I will be careful not to load many correlated positions, but I will take some correlated trades and the overall risk will be small due to small position size.

News and fundamentals. I will completely ignore.

Weekends. I will ignore and keep my positions opened. I may consider a breakout somewhat more likely to follow through if it happens on Friday.

System qualification. I believe that any trading system, before it is traded live with a serious size, should be qualified first. This journal is a step in the process to qualify a trend following channel breakout system for me.

How I view a system qualification process. A few steps which I described on my blog some time ago. In short, I believe this is a good path to profitably trading a system:
1. Understand the system well. Why it offers an edge and can be trusted. How it works. What's the setup and rationale and psychology behind it.

2. Backtest the system on historical charts, i.e. find past occurences of the setup, seeing the history and future, and imagine how I would have traded it. Record the results of last year or more of trading on a couple of pairs. Move on only if profitable on this hypothetical result.

3. Backtest the system on historical charts but looking at them bar-by-bar. Imagine trading it "live" without seeing the future, pressing F12 in MT4 to show next bar, with no cheating, record the resuls of imaginary entries and exits. Move on if profitable.

4. Demo trade it, at least 20 trades and 3 months. Move on if profitable.

5. Trade it live using a micro account. Move on if profitable.

6. Slowly increase the position size. If profitable.


So, with the Channel Breakout and Ride the Rejection Rule systems that I am going to trade here, I completed steps 1 to 3 above. I am skipping a step 4 of demo trade becasue I know the platform, I am an experienced trader, I know how to control the risk, and I want a real experience, real execution, real emotions to manage. So I go to step 5, live micro, with this journal. I will trade 0.02 lots per trade, so a risk will be roughly up to $20 per trade (if I have a 100 pips loss, of $30 in an unlikely event of a 150 pips loss, which is where my emergency stop will be, even if last bar stop would be wider). So the financial risk of this exercise is small and fully acceptable for me. If I should have 20 losses in a row, it will cost me $200. Unfortunate, but acceptable.

My task is to execute the system flawlessly. To learn. I will consider it a sucess if I am able to execute the system with high quality and if I learn from this exercise how to become a better trader. This should let me become consistently profitable over time.
I will also look at classical chart patterns such as triangle, rectangle, etc. like in Peter Brandt's book, and I will consider channel breakous more important and likely to trigger a sustained trend if they are initiated from a chart pattern such as rectangle, triangle, head & shoulders, etc.

I will trade end-of-day only. CET timezone. I will not look at the charts or touch my orders during the day. I have a full time corporate job which I do not intend to quit and want to focus on. It is something I like doing and it pays my bills, unlike trading so far ;-)

More to come in my next posts. This is the plan: I plan to post my trades and some orders here, I plan to do a weekly or monthly review with my fx book performance chart, I will trade only this system in the live account. I plan to be flawlessly executing this system for at least the next 3 months, September, October, November. On December 1st, 2014 I plan to review the progress, apply learnings and decide what's next, i.e. continue or drop or tweak the system with the same or increased trade size, all depending on results.

I am happy to hear any comments, questions or insights or ideas. Thanks and please wish me discipline and persistance in trading the plan. Thanks.

First couple of trades are setup, i.e. orders in place. NATGAS and EURTRY.

NATGAS. I placed a sell stop order right before price channel at 55-days low, using ask price. The light blue dotted line is my entry order price, dotted red is a stop loss level, and solid red lines indicate 55-days channel (the red red) and 21 days channel (gray red color). Where 20 and 55 days channel are the same, the grey red line is shown.

EURTRY. On this pair I got both long and short stop orders in place. (not the case on Natgas becasue the buy stop would be so far away that I find it very unlikely to be hit). And stop losses for both. The stop loss at this time is a emergency stop. I will move it to the last bar high after the breakout, and once the "last bar" is printed. The last bar before the breakout.

On both pairs the ADX(20) indicator is raising, which is my filter. I want it to be higher than yesterday. I am not placing orders if it is down. I will be cancelling orders that are in place if it turns down, and will be putting them back when it turns up again. In some cases it will make me enter a trend one day later, but it will also help me avoid some losers. My backtesting confirms this.

On many other pairs we are also nearby the 55-days high or low, but I am waiting... to avoid chasing a running market, as I start trading this method, I decided to wait before the channel line becomes flat or declinig for at least 5 days (flat or rasing for 5 days before entering a sell stop order to get short). This is consistent with the Courtney book rule that says a rejection rule kicks in, on long trades, if the 55-days high channel is flat or declining.

My charts show Bid price by default, but for setting up long trades I remind myself to switchto Ask. Not a big difference but a few pips may make a difference between being filled or not for a false break losing trade.


OK, let's see what the market does. I am reminding myself about the random distribution of winners and losers, so the outcome of these two trades, or number of following ones, should not matter much. What does matter is if (1) this trend following system has an edge and (2) if I am able to trade it consistently with high quality to explot this edge. This we will see. I trust the answer is Yes :-)

Hello Michal,

It shows that you have thoroughly researched your new system (rather than just jumping from one system to another).
It is very difficult to drop a system you have previously put so much time and effort into.
I think it is the right thing to do, "no point in flogging a dead horse" as the saying goes.
Entrepreneurs often have many failures before they hit on success, and trading is a business.
I wish you every success with the new system, I won't say "good luck", as you won't need that.

Regards,
Jim

Sounds promising can you please share your template

@JimN
Thank you!

@Stumpy1
My template has just two things and I am sure everyone can easily replicate it on any trading platform.
I have ADX indicator and Price Channel, also sometimes known as a Donchian Channel.

ADX is available in all popular platforms, and I use a setting of 20 periods. Default setting of 14 will probably work fine, too. In manual backtesting I saw no significant difference, surely this system does not rely on a specific indicator setting.


Price Channel is something you may need to download and install. For Trading Station II, the platform I use, as the borker I use offers it, it can be found here.
For MT4 price channel version, I use the attached version, which I found some time ago somewhere ;-)

And the settings I use are 55 periods (days), red color for both upper and lower line, without showing a middle line.
And then I add the same indicator again, with a setting of 20 periods and a less red color.

There is no "magic" behind 55 and 20 days settings. This is what Courtney recommends in his book. This is also what I used for backtesting. In some cases I would have been better off using for example 40 or 45 days (to get on a trend earlier at a better price), and sometimes 60 days would be better (to avoid a false break). I decided to settle for 55. The 20 days I will use for exits, to trail the stop to 20 days channel.

I hope this helps.

No orders filled today. Previously placed orders remain. A couple of new trades are setup.

Trade #1 NATGAS , order remains.

Trade #2 EURTRY, order remains in place.

Trade #3. USDJPY buy stop. We have a 55 upper channel line that has been flat or declining for at least 5 days and we have ADX raising (was not raising on Friday that is why I am not in the trade yet as I set no trade on Friday).

Trade #4 EURGBP sell stop below the 55 days low. ADX is raising. Lower channel line has been flat. (this flat line is for a rejection rule to potentially kick in, and so that I avoid chasing a running market).

Trade #5 AUDNZD, buy stop above channel line.

There are a few markets where I could place orders as well, but they are very extended to one direction already and I prefer to wait for a correction and then enter of on a break to a new highs or lows, or even wait for a major reversal and join the trend in a new direction.

Thanks for a great system it all makes sense at this stage I am following along in demo mode until I am comfortable with the way it works then I will go live with .02 same as you

OK, thanks and good luck. If I may suggest, please always make sure the trading decisions are your own, as so is the responsibility for the outcomes :-)

I believe it is good that you are going to start on demo.

You may also want to invest a few hours to do a manual backtest on historical charts... just imagine how you would have traded it. You will notice that a number of losers in a row will happen (so once you trade it live, you are not negatively surprised and this is not a reason to drop the system).

This system, just like any trend following system, to be profitable it relies on catching some big trends. If you follow the rules it is almost guaranteed that you will participate in a trend if there is one (because if you always buy the break of the 55 days high, if there is a big trend, for sure it will break the 55 days high). But of course, to make it happen, we need to execute the system flawlessy: have orders in place, do follow the exit rules, etc.

At least that's what I believe after reading Michael Covel books ;-)
Let's learn along.

Trade #3 USDJPY got filled today, and closed nicely above the 55 channel line, so I closed half of the position at around taking profits around 1R (74 pips gain, initial stop loss was 79 pips) and I moved my stop on the remainder of the position to just below the last bar. In line with the system description. Current stop distance is 30 pips below the entry price. So I am essentially in a free trade. I already made 74 pips, the worst thing that can happen is I will lose 30 pips, so I will be net plus 44 pips, or more. Attached chart shows how the position looks like today.

No other trades filled or closed today.

I am tempted to take a short SPX trade on a ride the rejection rule setup, in line with my system, becasue the price made a new high but closed below the 55-high channel line. It also printed a bearish outside bar in the process, and a false break of the yesterday's inside bar. But I will hold on, no trade, becasue technically speaking the channel line was not flat or declining for the previous 5 days, which is a rule for the rejection rule to kick in. (second screenshot, no trade there, just sharing what I see)

EURUSD and GBPUSD keeps falling, but I will be patient. I said I would not chase this markets, so I will not. Waiting for the flat or raising channel line and raising ADX (yesterday in GBP there was a 5 days rule in place, but ADX was declining).

Trade #1 NATGAS , I removed the order becasue ADX is declining. I will put this back in should ADX turn up.

On EURGBP and AUDNZD trades I keep the orders active even though ADX turned down... I need to re-think this, but although ADX turned down, today's move was in the direction of the potential trade setup. Which means that , if there is a follow through, ADX will likely rise... let me keep an eye on this.

OK, that's it for today, I feel good as the first trade is a winner already, but of course this is a pure luck, and I know that a distribution of winners and losers is random, and a trend following system like this will likely have more than 50% losers, so my expectations are calibrated for this.


Edit: I decided to place one more order, short GBPCAD. And I am testing a slightly different settings for ADX filter... raising ADX(55) for order entry as a filter and declining ADX(20) for order exit as a trigger. Just like the channel settings. I think this is right. And a quick look at past charts seems to confirm this. In other words, I will place entry stop orders only if ADX(55) goes up. I will exit trades if ADX(20) goes down.

Trade #3 USDJPY is on, declined today, stop loss holds, it looks like a normal reaction so far.

Trade #6 GBPCAD filled, in a small profit so far, rejection rule holds (it closed below the 55 days low channel line), I moved the stop loss to just above the last bar. I am not taking profits for half of the position yet, becasue the current profit is still below the 1R (i.e. stop loss distance). This trade is barely profitable for now.

Trade #5 AUDNZD filled, same as above, trade holds (I am not exiting it on a rejection rule as it closed above the channel line), I moved the stop below the last bar (decreased the risk from 100 to 80 pips), I do not scale out as it is below 1R profit so far.

I am glad I did not take a short SPX, it would be a loss already... and today there is another bearish setup, but no, I am not trading it. Rejection rule is not in place becasue upper channel line was not flat or declinig, and the trend is up, regardless of what I think where the market "should" be heading given what's happening in the world...

Trade #4 EURGBP I cancelled, becasue ADX(55) turned down. But I keep an eye on it , ready to put a sell stop at 55-lows if it starts trending again. I am a trend follower. If there is no trend , I have nothing to follow. When there is one, I will.

Trade #2 EURTRY order is active. No change there. Although I should probably cancel the buy stop, just keep the sell stop. ADX is raising when the price goes down, means it is correctly tracking the longer term down trade.


I see a short EURJPY trade idea, rejection rule of 20 days high, in other words a "turtle soup" trade by Linda Raschke, but I will pass it, there is enough trades and I am working hard not to overtrade and trade only if there is my setup, edge present. And this is breaks of the 55 channels.

I am also not chasing the trends on EURUSD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD. Although I "could", even in line with the system. But I decided to wait for the rejection rule to kick in, wait for 5 days flat channel line (i.e. no new low for 5 days in a downtrend).

AUDJPY is a beautiful hypothetical trade of my system, a setup was on Aug 21st, before I started trading this system.

I wanted to put a trade on Bund, but the market is closed, it is a pity, forex is better ;-) But I do see a setup.

Trade #7 USDCNH, a new trade setup. And the market is open. Sell stop below the 55-days low. ADX(55) is raising. Channel line has been flat for more than 5 days.

That's it for today.

Quite a volatility today, and looks like a lot happened in the markets over the last 24 hours, i.e. last time I looked, as I trade end-of-day only.

Trade #2, EURTRY short got filled today and is at a small loss, around entry point, it daily bar has not closed yet, two more hours, and the current level is almost exactly at the channel low. If it closed decisivly above, I would exit it for a small loss. But becasue if a shap move down on EUR accross the board, and becasue of positive swap carry trade, I will keep it open for one more day, the last bar stop is in place.

Trade #3 USDJPY is on, nicely went up today. I exited half of the trade yesterday, so I leave this as is. I am tempted to move up the stop, but I will not. This is now a "free trade" and I am going to "let the profits run", so it needs some space. If it goes back to stop, so be it.

Trade #5 AUDNZD long, I have just took profit at half of the position, around 1R, and moved the stop to last bar, so it is now a "free trade".

Trade #6 GBPCAD short, nice move and a profit today. I missed a great move today on EURUSD and on GBPUSD (becasue I decided not to chase the market which I now kind of regret), but at least I am participating in a short GBP trade on GBPCAD. Took profits on half of the position just now (159 pips), the rest has a stop loss above last bar (still risk of 69 pips, I will soon move it down, but not yet: my system rules is to move the stop to 20 days high only after it is below the last bar, unless I exit in the meantime on a rejection rule or on ADX turn down).

Lastly, I am attaching EURUSD chart for the record, to show the move that I missed.

Interestingly, the EURJPY short trade which I mentioned yesterday and decided not to trade, would be a big winner, too.

And the bearish pinbar SPX setup I mentioned yesterday, also would be a small winner. Both setups assume exit on close on the following day, that's why I can declare it would be a winner becasue I know how I would have exited it. Anyway, this is an anegdote. But trades above in bold are real, on a live account.

And I am adding a screenshot from my fx book, as I have linked the account. I plan to share weekly or bi-weekly performance analysis. So far it is too early to assess anything, but I am attaching this just as a starting point.

One last comment, I missed the GBPUSD entry on Sep 2nd... the rejection rule was in place as the lower channel line was flat for 5 days, but I didn't place a sell stop becasue ADX(20) was down... only day later I realized I should used ADX(55) for entry , and there was a trade there. Well, a miss, so be it, moving on.

AUDUSD has a bearish turtle soup setup today, or ride the rejection rule setup, on 20 days high channel. I pass it as I trade 55s only. There is enough trades.

Trade #7 USDNCH order remains in place, setup is still valid.

Trade #8 AUS200, a new setup, buy stop abor 55 days high, ADX(55) is raising, channel line is flat. I am not absolutely convinced this is a good trade, recent almost all breaks were false, but... there is a setup and I am following the rules.

Trade #3 USDJPY is on, printed a bearish outside bar today, and a false break of a 6-years high, and it is Friday, so it is not a great forecast for my long position, but I am not in a busines of forecasting, but in a busines of trend following. And the trend is up. ADX(20) is still up. No touch.

Yesterday mentioned AUDUSD short setup which I did not trade, would be a loser (no chart attached).

Trade #5 AUDNZD is on, and printed a bearish pinbar today, but with a bullish close still. Wait & see, ADX is still up, stop loss is still below last bar before the break.

AUDCAD shows a "ride the rejection rule" false break or a turtle soup setup... The price broke the 55 days high but closed below the channel line. I am not taking this setup for the following reasons: 55 channel was barely broken, bar has a bullish close, there is no strong candle patten on a H4 and H1, it is Friday so I'd leave it for weekend and pay rollover. But setup is there. If it works I will regreat I did not take it. Exit method would be manually on close on the following day, Monday in this case.

USOIL also presents an opportunity to place a sell stop. ADX (55) ticked up, 55-days low channel line is nearby. But is is Friday and a last bar stop would be very far, making it too large of a loss for me, even on a micro account. I will wait till Monday. I will not miss a large move. If it breaks on Monday I will put a sell stop below Monday low.

Trade #7 USDCNH order is on. No open trade.

Trade #2 EURTRY trade is on, around break even point, but at least closed below the channel low today. It is a good thing as this is a short trade.

Trade #6 GBPCAD is on, unfortunately printed a bullish pin, at a key support level, but I follow the method and am not moving my stop. It is a "free" trade by now, half of the position was closed at a significant profit (in pips terms).

Trade #8 AUS200 is cancelled, becasue ADX55 turned down, indicating there is no strangthening trend on a 55 days basis, so I am not going to jump in.

(new) Trade #9 USDNOK long , is setup. ADX55 goes up. Buy stop above 55 days high channel line. Standard method ;-) Past few break would end up at break even, a next one may start a larger move. Noone knows, but if there is a move I will be on it.

Technically speaking there is a EURCHF short setup. but I guess I will not fight the SNB. There is not much room left down to 1.2 rate.

Week 1 summary is +0.5% on myfxbook. Nice that it is in plus, but of course this is a too small sample to conclude anything. In fact I was more lucky than expected average, as there was a large trending move this week on a couple of pairs. My risk is roughly 0.5% per trade, so this week profit is about 1R.

Have a nice weekend.

Here is a link to my fx book in case you wanted to have a look.

I have set a "custom analysis" to show performance starting September 1st, 2014, i.e. the start of trading this method.

I am showing orders and open trades as well in myfxbook, but of course, let me explicitly state this to avoid any doubt: this is not an advise to buy or sell anything or take any trades. Trading is risky and I take absolutely no responsibility for anyone's trading result even if someone chooses to let my posted comments or trades on myfxbook influence their decisions in any way. And please note that I am not a consistently profitable trader at this time.

With this cleared just in case, have a nice weekend.

One last thing, you may want to check out my blog where I ocasionally share some posts about trading with high quality, which I am trying to do here, to become a consitently profitable trader. My blog has no ads and is not selling or promising anything ;-)

I have not read all of the thread, but you know that you are trading pretty much the long term turtle entry method.

The original turtle strategy is still reported to have a decent edge, even now.

One thing to remember is that drawdowns are reported to be steep at times but each case if you weather that you should have reached new equity highs.

Will read rest when I get something to eat.

That's right, I am aware. The channel breakout method originates from Donchain and has been used by Turtles.
As you are saying, it may have deep drawdown becasue it has a low % winners.

The way I am trying to minimize potential drawdowns is this:
1. I risk just ~0.5% of equity per trade (I will slowly turn this up if I am profitable over time)
2. I diversify through markets, watching 20-30 of them, so hope to have nice trends in at least some of them
3. I scale out, take profits for half of the position at 1R, so as a result some of the would-be-losers will be break-even trades, and the equity swings will be smaller towards the end of the trade, becasue it will be just half of the original position.
4. I trade the "ride the rejection rule" setup. If there was a false break to the upside, and the price closed below the channel, I take a short trade and exit on the following day. This is supposed to miniumize or cover for the loss of the failed breakout trade (in some cases the second trade will also be a loser).
5. I avoid correlated positions.
6. I always have a stop loss order at the last bar (or last of the two bars) and a position size so that risk is 0.5%.


And, so, the points above are supposed to take care for the downside, while buying the 55 high breaks, which I trust, as you say, has an edge, will take care for the upside (combined with exit method which is supposed to let the profits run but exit when a trend ends, identified by ADX turning down or price making a 20 days low)


Thanks a lot for your comment, and I hope you will enjoy the reading.

My paper trading is going extremely well except for the position I bought when I should have sold need to pay a bit more attention but so far the system seems very solid
have you considered hedging your position if its in profit and you get a signal to exit due to lack of momentum as some times this is just a temporary
situation

I am glad to hear it looks solid to you. I have not really considered hedging. I like the system to be simple, so I will stick to one position at a time per market.
Thanks and I am happy to hear any ideas.

Today's update.

Trade #3 USDJPY holds. Nice upmove today. I am not moving my stop although it is tempting. I will follow the system.

Trade #5 AUDNZD holds. Gave back some profits today.

Trade #6 GBPCAD holds. Nice move down today.

I am not chasing the market in EURUSD and GBPUSD. Luckily I already have some short GBP exposure on trade #6 GBPCAD.

There is a "ride the rejection rule" short setup on EURGBP. 55-day upper channel was penetrated and closed below it. ADX is declining. But I will pass on it for two reasons. 1. false break to the upside was very small, in fact no break at all on Bid, just on Ask. And this pair has a large spread. 2. The price closed in the middle of the bar, while I would prefer to close it lower.

Trade #9 USDNOK got filled today. And there is a nice and strong close above 55-days high. No yet enough profits to justify taking partial profits on half of the position.

(new) Trade #10 EURAUD. ADX up. Sell stop below 55-days low. Carry trade with positive swap (rollover). Opportunity to participate in a EUR downtrend. There is a bit of a fundamental bias in this trade... this is also why I am not putting a buy stop SPX trade which technically could be defended.

Trade #7 USDCNH order is still active. It alost got filled today. I am glad I placed a sell stop a bit below the channel. Otherwise I would have to close it today for a small loss as it closed above the channel line.

Trade #2 EURTRY update, it has not moved, is at a small loss at this time. Let's see how this plays out, I do not touch it for now.

Lastly, EURSTX50 printed a bearish engulfing bar on a 45-days high, I am tempted to short it, just like Bund which may have started going down, but no, I will follow the rules, that's a key thing.

That's it for today. There were a couple of trades I could talk myself into entering, but with the number of open trades I am managing at this time, this is enough. I will certainly also try not to miss any new big trend. I was planning daily trading & journal to take 15 minutes, but so far it has been closer to 60 minutes. Big part of this is this journal, but I trust it makes sense to do, for my own improved learning. Over time I will get more productive for sure. That's all for now.

Just closed au/nzd at a small profit due to 2 down days on adx

Trade #3 USDJPY still open, new high.

(new) Trade #11 USDCAD, short on "ride the rejection rule" setup. I plan to close it tomorrow at market on close. To ride the momentum of a false break of the 55 days high. Also printed a pinbar. Unfortunately a bullish close, but below the channel, so setup is valid.

I am glad I did not trade EURGBP false break yesterday.

Trade #10 EURAUD cancelled, becasue ADX(55) turned down.

Trade #5 AUDNZD closed, as Stumpy1 very rightly said above, becasue the ADX(20) went down. In fact, I should have closed it yesterday. My mistake. Already yesterday ADX turned down. Loss of 40 pips on half of the position. It just above break even for the total position.

Trade #2 EURTRY is very close to a stop loss, likely a full bar loss. Cost of doing business.

Trade #6 GBPCAD still doing OK. Bearish pinbar today, good sign. ADX(22) still raising.

Trade #9 USDNOK doing OK, although retraced a bit today.

EURSTX50 which I was tempted to trade yesterday, would be a winner today (had I traded it, I would be closing it now on a ride the rejection rule 1-day time stop).

(new) Trade #12 AUDUSD short, sell stop below the channel, ADX55 turned up slightly today, this opens a door to order entry, as a filter says yes. In fact it broke the channel today, but I had no order in place becasue yesterday ADX was still doing down. Today I can place an order, so will join this trend if is breaks today's low.

I considered placing a sell stop for XAUUSD, but I will hold on. First, let's see if it breaks 1240, which would be even more convincing. Secondly, I am already long USD vs. NOK and JPY, so I don't want to add another correlated lod USD trade (short XAUUSD means short XAU and long USD, to be clear).

I wanted to place a sell stop on USOIL, but it says "nontradable price". Seems like a market is closed. Too bad. Anyway.

That's all for today.