Recent theoretical work and actual trades

My father asked me: Did you learn how the other people do it?
I answered: No its not about that. There is no one way to do it. Then the whole world economy would shut down. But yes i learned a way to do it, how to trade. But its not what any body else is doing. Im applying four or five or six layers of thinking to every chart. And then draw a mean of probability, so that each layer of analysis agrees with a buy or sell position. Each layer of analysis is then worth a certain amount of probability depending on the particular analysis. If say all five layers of analysis agree, then the probability is extreme: 99.9958% to be correct or thereabout in the duration of say 24 hours or so:

Layer 1 : .8 propability = E/U M5 pattern recognition
Layer 2: .7 probability = H1 trend analysis
Margin of error .2 x 0.3 = 0.06

Layer 3: .65 probability = Ema 288 M5 analysis
Margin of error 0.06 x 0.35 = 0.021

Layer 4: .6 probability = Hunch analysis
0.021 x 0.4 = 0.0084

Layer 5: .5 probability = S/R analysis
0.0084 x 0.5 = 0.0042

As i enter every trade the idea should be: TP = 0.1% of total account.

If new probability to enter again arise, enter again.

Sheesh! Since 14:30 yesterday, so in 26 hours something like that, and according to calculations im at + in money, but boy the pips are down a bunch. Entered some 30% of usual lot size longs yesterday just for the fun of it when it had dropped like 80 pips. Well it dropped something like 120 more, under which time i entered a couple of more and it got to quite a lot before i thought i was done. But by that time i was looking at a handfull of % in - of total account. So it was sweaty work to close the longs at peaks while at the same time adding shorts today.

I shorted a bunch in the morning, but it just kept rising in a quite "unpatternized" way. But anyway, im back in the green on the closed ones. Luckily in yesterdays news heavy day i changed my lot to silly small just to have some fun. It wasnt very fun to look at 6% drawdown. All the while i try not to compare to off the shelf average traders who have -30% drawdown once a month.

Fortunately, its all to obvious what i was doing completely wrong yesterday: Buying in a sell trend.

My idea was that since daily ATR is something like 60 pip, if it drops 70 pip or so, im pretty safe to think its just going to be quick dip or so once it drops that much.

Current templates









So now its all out there. Thats all the automatic math anybody will ever need to have on their charts to trade. Dont matter the Tf or what ever. I mean if anybody really wanted to trade like one position/day or something so, just analyze H1 and have your pick or what ever. Right now if i was looking for anything to put on my chart, this would be it. Aint nothing out there that i would choose instead. Im doing like im doing. Do the math. Or dont. Me? Im just here for the ride. Im done. I know what the score is.

Turning in to a new chapter
Now and for several weeks without any significant interuption, these templates is the representation of what automatic math an entity needs to compute in order to make help to facilitate the action of trading or not trading.

Using the above templates and its varying interpretations + a sound MM that has already in its basic essence been adequately placed here in the path, is adequate to turn x into 2x in 70 bank days.

If return = x 1.01 each day = 1% /day

Week 1

Begin: A

End circa: A x 1.05


Week 2

Begin circa A x 1.05

End: circa A x 1.1


Week 3

Begin circa A x 1.1

End circa A x 1.16


(Not until now that the exponential growth actually becomes apparent)
Week 4

Begin circa A x 1.16

End circa A x 1.22


Since all these equations are GUIDELINES and so on, it does not pose a problem the they are expressed in a "circa" manner. For it would not gather more or less of relevant information to have it any other way.

Think i did 1.6% the other day. Wednesday or some such.

Every time i get a shitload of new important information to cover its like: Shit i thought i knew most there was to know about this.

Every time i am done processing a shitload of new important information its like: Shit i thought i knew something before, but this is going to kick the ass of the past me so much!

Every time i go back and have a look at what has been its like: Shit i thought i made some kind of path to where i am now, but the path is just way back there in the background.

I dont know if i left enough bredcrumbs or not. I dont even know shit. I just trade. Other more difficult things, like where am i going to live and how will we make love the next time thats way to advanced. Just selling in a sell trend, thats easy. A kid could do that. And then spot trend reversals. MM is not problem for a high school kid. The rest is history.

Anyway, f0ck that sh1t! 110 minutes until Alpari closes shop. Got a couple of shorts out. Four actually, down just a tiny little bit.

The crickets stop chirping outside. Night has come. I dont know where i will live in 12 months. I sure as shit dont know where i will be in 48 months but probably on our farm/castle/island/HQ/Military base/prison/other world/country/land/reclusive getaway.

I cant much talk to people in general. They have such odd notions about things. I really like people though.

Do you keep positions over weekend?

Sounds like youre constantly on the move, both in your life and in your trading!
Where ever you are in the world and what youre doing, I wish you well!

Even after that horrendous bit i still managed +3.3% this week. So thats 0.66%/day this week on average. Considering my target is +0.5% i think im doing OK. Though for next week i think i will up the anti to 0.8%/day something like that. That should be doable as long as i dont do shit stupid things like this thursday. I will keep lot size the same though for a while. Its adequate until ive made +10% from where i am now, so a couple of weeks.

I have three positions open this weekend. I did not intend too. My father came yesterday and i was needed to go throw away some unwanted stuff like an old sofa, ugly carpets and such. Meanwhile i did not have the opurtunity to close those positions i had open. If i had been at the computer as i was supposed those positions would be closed at around BE and the other ones at profits. But thats life. Its not a big deal of money, but it hurts a bit.

You know i have found out that other activities strengthen my trading skill. Music, dancing, acting, math and physics are areas that definetely added a lot to my trading skill during the years 2011 until July this year even though i did not intend that. I am quite sure that if i had just been lying on my coach during 2011 until now, i would not have met the love of my life, i would not be a father now, i would not have learned acting and i would not have been trading. Also my woman supported me a lot and believed in me. Otherwise i dont know what i would be doing right now if it wasnt for that.

When i was making my blog a couple of years ago there was this field to fill ot what my interests are. I stopped at 20 something interests when i realized i could keep going for a while. To me all good knowledge and wisdom ties together and forms a complete world view. This pretty much applies to all areas of human knowledge. Of course there is a lot of unfounded, confused knowledge out there. I look to my world view to try to see if a particular set of information seem based on something sensible or not. But my world view is always prone to change, and change it should, for that is what knowledge does.

Well anyway, i wish you all the best my friend!

The logic of price in terms of natural language versus synthethic language

Every process of change can graphed. If only relevant variables and constants are present in the graphs, given enough graphs, patterns will emerge. These patterns are the repeating functions of the equation that creates the graphs. The functions of the equation can not be fully understood in terms natural language because natural language does not contain terms and defenitions adequate to describe these functions in a understandable way.

Think of the flight patterns of birds. The invisible paths of ants. The breaking of waves against a rocky beach. The propability distribution clouds of subatomic particles. The invisible paths created by the momentum of people moving in a crowd. The sleep patterns of humans. The distribution of a species of wild animals in a given area.

There is no widely accepted synthethic language that contains adequate terms and defenitions to describe the functions of the equation that results in the graphed, changing process of EU/ price. A synthethic language able to adequately describe the functions of the equation that results in the graphed, changing price of E/U must contain the patterns, for the patterns is the result of the equation that creates the graphed, changing process of E/U price.

Natural languages are Sapmi, Persian, Arameic, Swedish, Hebrew, Finnish and so on. Natural languages was not mainly intentional in its creation but rather it changes as other cultural heritage does. Synthethic languages are: Logic, Math, all the variations of computer code, Esperanto for instance. Synthethic languages where mainly intentional in its creation.

Since "a pattern in a graph" is best described as: a pattern in a graph, there is the obvious difficulty of trying to describe "a pattern in a graph" in terms of natural language, since natural language is not expressed in graphs.

Thats why so many people seem so confused about price: They have no language to describe it. Natural languages does not contain the right words and ideas to describe price. Such a description as "Its going up" and "Its going down" is examples of the inadequacy of the natural languages to describe price. If someone asks me if E/U has been going down or up lately, i recall the current W1 graph from memory and count the candles of recent time: 8 bear candles. So i answer: "From monday start to fridays close, its been going down for 8 weeks straight." If someone would ask: "What about before that?" I would answer: "3 up and 5 down in the 8 weeks that was before the 8 most recent weeks." Of course, thats not true. If it where true Europe would be burning now, because if it had been going down and only down on the tick scale for 8 weeks, well lets just say there wouldnt be much left of the euro at all. But tick scale is the only thing there is. And so it is impossible to describe the tick scale of say the 8 last weeks in terms of natural language. I mean it would not be very productive to say: Well it started out really great the first 0.2710496 seconds of the week with a buy of 3 ticks, but then of course it turned as it did and there was some strong selling going on for oh about 0.3619348 seconds ending it with 5 ticks down where we probably hit a minute wall of longs resulting in a buy move of 2 ticks lasting for about 0.0891844 seconds only... Well anyone would be bored and not just get much of any information that would be usefull.

If i where asked to describe the last 16 weeks of E/U price (13 down, 3 up) then in natural terms it would be something like: "Dominated by selling". That is a very loose, very general not to say unintelligble answer. That answer could easily be interpreted in numerical terms as "16 down, 0 up" since that is still a VERY clear example something we could understand as "Dominated by selling". But it is likewise possible to describe the answer in numerical terms as "9 down, 7 up" because it is still really dominated by selling, however only in the slightest possible manner. That is why "13 down, 3 up" is still a very much more profound answer that contains much more precise information still then "Dominated by selling". And even more so, this chart should explain it even further and with good precision as compared to the characterizations of natural language:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Which means that me or any other persons answer to the question: "Have E/U price been going up or down lately?" should be answered with that chart instead of in terms of natural language. Then comes the process of actually picking and presenting what information in that chart is relevant. But the chart itself contains about a thousand different points in a Descartean co-ordinate system. That is a lot more and a lot more precise information then "Its slightly down" or "Its been going down lately".

Or to the question of: "Have E/U price been going up or down lately?" this chart is perhaps an even better answer:



The tools needed to trade is therefore 1) a synthethic language expressed in terms of graphs. 2) a natural or synthethic database to contain the graphs, and 3) a computer with internet connection.

A natural database is a brain or a brainlike synaptic system. A synthethic database is a hard drive.

I have been working with probability theory for 26 years. I wonder if that helps.

This world is full of something. Some of it is hidden intentionally, some of it is just obscured at the moment, but not by intention. This thing i talk about is knowledge. Thats pretty much what i am about. Knowledge of making love. Knowledge of brushing my teeth. Knowledge of things i yet have no idea about, but will make my life more interesting. Knowledge to make my life more simple and predictible, thats not really knowledge, thats just routine. I dont want routine, i want knowledge. Knowledge is fun. Knowledge is interesting. Knowledge is endarkening. Knowledge is enlightening.

Being afraid
The only thing im really afraid of is that my son would grow up and think life is boring and uninteresting. Bears, cults, women, drugs, wars, aliens, spirits, evil wizards, vampires, the vatican and all that is nothing compared to if my son would grow up and just go through life in haze of things that dont matter.

hope all is well Yaed?
is there a post where you explain what the templates mean?
just downloaded the templates for H1 and M15 with the below links
is there any method for entry? are there rules?
kindly assist

these are the 2 templates i have downloaded.
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...5&d=1409935167

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...6&d=1409935184

Rules? No dont have those. I dont do the same thing over and over, i make decisions. There are a method for entry, but its not fixed by rules. Rules dont work because price is not regulated by such rules and such, its regulated by foreign exchange.

But, if you study my charts and what i have written about, its all there. In a selling trend i always sell, never buy. In a buying trend i always buy, never sell. I tried hedging, but its a bit confusing, and besides there is not point to doing it. I mean either i establish that the high TF trend is buy, then its stupid to sell and vice versa.

If i approach you question as a relation between rules and methods, i think its safe to say i have methods, but no rules. If i sort of see a pattern that means increased risk, i dont do what i first thought i should.

If i have an open position in profit i close it the instant i see any form of significant S/R. But sometimes i need to aim TPs through S/R even though i would prefer not to. To me a strong S/R will be defeated only in 50% of the cases.

Probability theory, pattern recognition and statistics is all with me bouncing around in my scull when i trade. Every entered position is never a sure thing, ALWAYS a matter of proability. There is no safe bets in forex, at least without inside info, which i dont have.

If you want to know my method, look at my charts and where i entered and exited according to the statements. Though you should know i dont trade H4 and i have little knowledge of timeframes like that. What i use higher TFs for is to establish long term trend. I look at M5 when to place trades. I used to trade M1, and i would still, but there is little volatility these days so im on M5.

So what kind of place is Nairobi? I hear there is quite a lot of crime, robbery, carjacking that kind of thing is that correct?

Synthetic MM defenitions

R = Average return/day

D = Average expected maximum drawdown/day
Da = Actual drawdown current day

AD = Accepted actual drawdown/day

T = Time

Ok i think i will go back and forth and what ever with this but i will work on this:

(Skitbra) = (Da) < (R)
(Hyfsat) = (2) x (Da) < (R)
(Dåligt) = (3) x (Da) < (R)
(Kass) = (4-6) x (Da) < (R) (Yes the < is a strange symbol to place considering the first variable)

From T0 to T1 space: (Kass) = 4-6 Da
From T1 to T2 space: (2Kass) (Kass) = 12-18 Da
From T2 to T3 space: (3Kass) (2Kass) (Kass) = 24- 36 Da
From T3 to T4 space: (4Kass) (3Kass) (2Kass) (Kass) = 40-60 Da
From T4 to T5 space: (5Kass) (4Kass) (3Kass) (2Kass) (Kass) = 60-90 Da

Meanwhile that is going on in the worst way: 5R. Which means in effect (60-90 Da) - (5 R) = (55-85 Da)

T5 superkass = (55-85 Da)

Im quite sure i missed out to define some vital variable, but still its a beginning.

Fibonacci EMA Hypothesis
For 35012 tpl EMAs, if price exits that area, and how it does it, an interesting area for more study.
Also another use is the contract - wooosh thing that i forgot about.
I guess i confused myself somewhat with the grouped EMAs. But now im fed up with those.

oh you viewed my profile? you seem like someone who is very intellectual..
i live in the city center. seems like what you have heard is all wrong/or maybe older news. in fact robbery/theft/threats have been reduced by more than 95% (for real - we are that safe and peaceful). and the country has recorded zero theft this year (i mean like street, banks, institutions and residential/anything that raises community attention) the government has recorded zero illegal gun handling and theft.
i know it sounds faked out but its for real.
The tourist that have visited of late are happy.

thanks for your answer, will look into your charts for more info and get back to you. Thanks for your continued kindness.

Oh i check everybodys profile. I look at everybodys charts. I find out what threads people are on. To learn. To keep track of who is working for the brokers, earning commission trying to get me to their broker. There are a lot of people out there trying to take advantage of stupid traders. Fortunately, im not one of the stupid ones. There arent many stupid traders, they sort of dont do so good at trading

Im very glad Nairobi are getting grips on its crime. I know a few people from Kenya and neighbouring areas, all good people, artists.

How is music in Nairobi? People play on the streets?

Damage reduction MM hypothesis. Or how not to get 6%+ drawdown.
(A) = (Amount of Mu kussar)
If i place a position ONLY if it is both a H1 AND a M5 good position, all i would ever need/day should be about A many.
If i do that i will reduce possible drawdown a significant amount, while also raising accuracy, take profit (on each position).
While also using Fibonacci EMAs to detect contraction - wooosh moves, and so staying out of "Danger" areas of contraction.
Not to forget is big envelope channel signaling medium TF probabilities.
Also placed H1 envelope of P5.
The result should be something or approaching: "Low drawdown, high individual TPs, few "Danger" placed positions, fewer positions, less data to compute for the brain because of reduced amount of positions"