Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY) | Page 720 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD, GBP/CHF and GBP/NZD thread 126 replies

Geppy - Pick the bottom 18 replies

Lets Talk GBP/JPY "the geppy" 156 replies

geppy is "ugly" when ? 14 replies

Geppy outlook 0 replies

Attachments: Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)
Exit Attachments

Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #14,381
  • Sep 5, 2014 2:37am Sep 5, 2014 2:37am
Quoting IveGotQuads
{quote} 1. Unrest in Ukraine and Middle East will increase demand for the safest assets. 2. Once we break 170 the next floor is @ 165. 3. The bond market is always right. Difference between 2 yr yields in the US and Germany expanded to 62 basis points, that's the widest since April 2007. when you factor in the US Fed's next move is not easing rates but raising rates. Institutions will have to adjust their portfolios eventually to Interest rate changes. ( this tends to be violent after consolidations) Last but not the least Futures contract traders...
That is quite insightful.

Yes I know FED is finishing bond-buying program in October, so that means easy money out of market which should be positive for USD and to some extent equity negative. Also I would put my argument as BoJ wants Yen to depreciate and are talking of QQE as long as needed and with BoE also on the path of rate rise what can be the direction of GJ. Again look at UJ it has gone to almost 6-year high, so with keeping all this in mind, would you still not say that upside is intact.

PS Add: I hope we can start a healthy discussion where others can also join in.
  • #14,382
  • Sep 5, 2014 3:00am Sep 5, 2014 3:00am
Quoting workingforex
{quote} That is quite insightful. Yes I know FED is finishing bond-buying program in October, so that means easy money out of market which should be positive for USD and to some extent equity negative. Also I would put my argument as BoJ wants Yen to depreciate and are talking of QQE as long as needed and with BoE also on the path of rate rise what can be the direction of GJ. Again look at UJ it has gone to almost 6-year high, so with keeping all this in mind, would you still not say that upside is intact. PS Add: I hope we can start a healthy discussion...
Yes the BOJ does not mind the yen depreciating but in earnest the generic desires of Central banks are waning... when you do something for so long (Q.E) the effectiveness greatly diminishes over time. The upside for now is still intact and On technical issues when you take a look at the weeklies, you can see a consolidation. Getting to 165 in a retracement is still within the 38 fib. On that note, my trade wasn't triggered...we are back into the 25 pip range
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 36 KB
  • #14,383
  • Sep 5, 2014 3:05am Sep 5, 2014 3:05am
Quoting IveGotQuads
{quote} Yes the BOJ does not mind the yen depreciating but in earnest the generic desires of Central banks are waning... when you do something for so long (Q.E) the effectiveness greatly diminishes over time. The upside for now is still intact and On technical issues when you take a look at the weeklies, you can see a consolidation. Getting to 165 in a retracement is still within the 38 fib. On that note, my trade wasn't triggered...we are back into the 25 pip range {image}
Ahh... that is true!

I would love to see it under 170 soon. Need to be patient. Keep up the good work!
  • #14,384
  • Sep 5, 2014 3:14am Sep 5, 2014 3:14am
Huge locked orders on H4 , I expect a powerful breakout down

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sa.png Size: 46 KB
Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #14,385
  • Sep 5, 2014 3:33am Sep 5, 2014 3:33am
Quoting workingforex
{quote} Ahh... that is true! I would love to see it under 170 soon. Need to be patient. Keep up the good work!

Thanks, you too. And yes there's a descending triangle on the 15 TF that has just been broken to the downside but ill wait for the pull back before placing order. Nice chart andoseg !!
  • #14,386
  • Sep 5, 2014 3:54am Sep 5, 2014 3:54am
Quoting andoseg2
Huge locked orders on H4 , I expect a powerful breakout down {image}
It's looking like it. I'm expecting all hell to break loose during the London/New York market cross. Especially because it's the end of the week.
I'm looking at somewhere between 171.3 and 171.2. If it can hit 171, all the better, but I think the other two are a little more realistic right now.
  • #14,387
  • Sep 5, 2014 4:02am Sep 5, 2014 4:02am
Quoting IveGotQuads
{quote} Yes the BOJ does not mind the yen depreciating but in earnest the generic desires of Central banks are waning... when you do something for so long (Q.E) the effectiveness greatly diminishes over time. The upside for now is still intact and On technical issues when you take a look at the weeklies, you can see a consolidation. Getting to 165 in a retracement is still within the 38 fib. On that note, my trade wasn't triggered...we are back into the 25 pip range {image}
Regarding long term evolution, I expect upside activity .

, It is possible that we are in a consolidation above Support, that building extraordinary huge energy for a upside breakout.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: long.png Size: 60 KB
Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #14,388
  • Sep 5, 2014 4:08am Sep 5, 2014 4:08am
Quoting andoseg2
{quote} Regarding long term evolution, I expect upside activity . , It is possible that we are in a consolidation above Support, that building extraordinary huge energy for a upside breakout. {image}
Or the first move up to 163 was the 1st wave of a correction, then the last two years have been the 3rd wave ... and the correction has finished. Meaning that, in time, it moves down a lot or makes a new low below 116.

There are always two sides to a story.
  • #14,389
  • Sep 5, 2014 4:23am Sep 5, 2014 4:23am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Or the first move up to 163 was the 1st wave of a correction, then the last two years have been the 3rd wave ... and the correction has finished. Meaning that, in time, it moves down a lot or makes a new low below 116. There are always two sides to a story.
This depend how is your overview . When I'm refering long term, I mean something between two and four-six months. If your view about long term mean two -four years, then you might have right.
I don't agree regarding the Wave 1 . I painted how I understood from your explanations. In my opinion, this isn't a valid Wave 1.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eli.png Size: 60 KB
Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #14,390
  • Sep 5, 2014 4:34am Sep 5, 2014 4:34am
Quoting 4xNewGuy
{quote} It's looking like it. I'm expecting all hell to break loose during the London/New York market cross. Especially because it's the end of the week. I'm looking at somewhere between 171.3 and 171.2. If it can hit 171, all the better, but I think the other two are a little more realistic right now.
Sell trigered, hope we have a nice week-end
Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #14,391
  • Sep 5, 2014 4:39am Sep 5, 2014 4:39am
Quoting andoseg2
{quote} Sell trigered, hope we have a nice week-end
yeah sell triggered here as well... but with open take profit. gl to everyone ...and hopefully the thread get active again.
  • #14,392
  • Sep 5, 2014 4:43am Sep 5, 2014 4:43am
Have a look at this channel as well.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpydaily5.9.14.png Size: 53 KB
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #14,393
  • Sep 5, 2014 4:51am Sep 5, 2014 4:51am
Quoting andoseg2
{quote} Sell trigered, hope we have a nice week-end
Me too. Kind of hoping it moves back up say 10-15 pips, so I can pad the trade with something like one more lot for an extra $400 or so. If not, no biggie. I'll still be happy if I pull $1k off of this. 10% of that would go to a very nice bottle of victory scotch.
  • #14,394
  • Sep 5, 2014 5:01am Sep 5, 2014 5:01am
Quoting andoseg2
{quote} This depend how is your overview . When I'm refering long term, I mean something between two and four-six months. If your view about long term mean two -four years, then you might have right. I don't agree regarding the Wave 1 . I painted how I understood from your explanations. In my opinion, this isn't a valid Wave 1. {image}
If we're talking waves (proper) then 118 to 162 COULD have been wave A, the long, slow move to 116 COULD have been wave B and this incredibly impulsive move wave C. And yet, we still never reached the 50% retracement for the whole move out of 250x. AND, upon completion, it sat for month after month making no progress. Furthermore, such a correction will often never exceed the 50, but usually more than the 38. The lack of momentum was also telling. Essentially, it kind of ticks a lot of boxes.

So, it either drops down to a major support level, or it makes a double /triple bottom or a new low.

If that scenario is correct (and, obviously, no one has any idea), then any drop to medium or major lows would be in the order of months, probably not years.

Just an alternate view, as after almost a year in this area you kind of get tired of folks talking about the expected significant new highs.

Anyway, I'm out of here. Best wishes all.
  • #14,395
  • Sep 5, 2014 7:35am Sep 5, 2014 7:35am
Quoting 4xNewGuy
{quote} Me too. Kind of hoping it moves back up say 10-15 pips, so I can pad the trade with something like one more lot for an extra $400 or so. If not, no biggie. I'll still be happy if I pull $1k off of this. 10% of that would go to a very nice bottle of victory scotch.
Wehehehe , it seem you will drink some scotch this week-end. I love Fridays because is the end of week work. WHen you make money Fridays , then those days become Holydays.
Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #14,396
  • Sep 5, 2014 9:20am Sep 5, 2014 9:20am
Closed my short at 171.10, dont want to keep trade open on weekend. This pair is a beast ,can do unexpected at any time.


Quoting ssaqeel
This is what i m seeing on GJ daily chart, rectangle in chart has been good selling area(173.44 - 172. 8x) for quite a while in past several months , i will be interested to sell if the price goes below 172.7x {image}
  • #14,397
  • Sep 5, 2014 10:47pm Sep 5, 2014 10:47pm
Well, alrighty then....... 'bout time....we have the vacation period winding down and we'll seee more widening daily ranges.
Still, till tuesday in October......before we get to hitting a gear.....
  • #14,398
  • Sep 6, 2014 6:29pm Sep 6, 2014 6:29pm
Hello all, I'm kinda new to forex trading and learned alot from just reading here. I am interested in GBP/JPY because of the volatility I guess. I checked out some courses on reading the charts and was wondering if you guys could point me in the right direction. I am sure you guys answered it all above here already but I have some trouble following the terminology sometimes.

I figured the GBP/JPY broke the last support at 171,63 and is now in a bearish movement down. So I figure I should sell tom night as soon as the market opens ? See my graph to see what I was thinking.

Cheers




Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: example.jpg Size: 857 KB
  • #14,399
  • Sep 7, 2014 3:39pm Sep 7, 2014 3:39pm
Quoting TortugaTrade
Hello all, I'm kinda new to forex trading and learned alot from just reading here. I am interested in GBP/JPY because of the volatility I guess. I checked out some courses on reading the charts and was wondering if you guys could point me in the right direction. I am sure you guys answered it all above here already but I have some trouble following the terminology sometimes. I figured the GBP/JPY broke the last support at 171,63 and is now in a bearish movement down. So I figure I should sell tom night as soon as the market opens ? See my graph...
1. That is too much risk to just "sell" as market opens...Stop losses might be hit or your resistance to pain tested.
2. we look at points as zones rather than specific numbers...in your graph what looks like a break to you in a 15 min chart looks like a 3 bar reversal to me. If you zoom to the 1 hr charts its a bullish pin bar.
3. Reading charts is all good but the main attributes to success are money management/ position sizing and psychology the technical aspect is last.
Hope that helps for now there are good books everywhere but Market Wizards by Jack Schwager and Principals and Psychology of Day Trading by George Slezak are an absolute must. Good luck
  • #14,400
  • Sep 7, 2014 3:57pm Sep 7, 2014 3:57pm
And 170 has gone​
4 traders viewing now