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  • #61
  • Edited 4:05am Sep 5, 2014 3:54am | Edited 4:05am
Quoting Paracelsus
{quote} Probably it is due to the different chart formations, but my SELL entry at 1.29428 is still in play at this moment. My trigger candle and entry level are shown in my previous blog entry (TP was missed by 0.5 pip).
I start with a buy, and got hit on st, if i had a sell, it didn't hit tp because of spread.. i'm on my third trade now

----

done for the session, 3 trades start with buy, but had to make it manual, my 3 trade got off quotes with the EA.
  • #62
  • Sep 5, 2014 4:17am Sep 5, 2014 4:17am
Quoting suicida
{quote} I start with a buy, and got hit on st, if i had a sell, it didn't hit tp because of spread.. i'm on my third trade now ---- done for the session, 3 trades start with buy, but had to make it manual, my 3 trade got off quotes with the EA.
I am just curious what entry strategy has your EA followed starting the series with a "BUY"...
  • #63
  • Sep 5, 2014 4:22am Sep 5, 2014 4:22am
Quoting Paracelsus
{quote} I am just curious what entry strategy has your EA followed starting the series with a "BUY"...
The original rule posted by aahmad29 in post #1 says "always start with a buy order"
  • #64
  • Sep 5, 2014 4:24am Sep 5, 2014 4:24am
that's right.
  • #65
  • Edited 6:04am Sep 5, 2014 4:37am | Edited 6:04am
Quoting suicida
that's right.
Sorry, my mistake. I had the impression that the strategy goes with the "flow" of the last 5 minutes before the "open", assuming that the "good 'ol London boys" place their bets just before the opening bell...

ADDENDUM: LO: +10 pips (with 2nd entry)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: LO 0905_2.jpg Size: 471 KB
  • #66
  • Sep 5, 2014 7:17am Sep 5, 2014 7:17am
Hi Can you attach your indicators setup?
  • #67
  • Sep 5, 2014 7:33am Sep 5, 2014 7:33am
NY open was way way to good today.. instead of 10 pips i made 33pips. But this could be alot worst if it was the 4š trade and go on the opposite..

btw i think it only worked because i got no off quotes, manualy it could be done with some pendings.
  • #68
  • Edited Sep 6, 2014 7:10am Sep 5, 2014 8:29am | Edited Sep 6, 2014 7:10am
I use my eyes ony as indicators (for now), so I cannot attach them.

On my chart there is only Volume and "SweetSpotsGOLD_TRO_MODIFIED_VERSION" (there are many copies on FF for download) to guide my manual orders.

NYO: another +10 pips

LO + NYO : +20 pips for day
  • #69
  • Sep 5, 2014 9:55am Sep 5, 2014 9:55am
Quoting Paracelsus
NYO: another +10 pips
You didn't catch the news ? on my broker there was a gap of 31 pips on 1M chart.. that's how i catch 3x the 10 pips
  • #70
  • Sep 5, 2014 10:18am Sep 5, 2014 10:18am
Quoting suicida
{quote} You didn't catch the news ? on my broker there was a gap of 31 pips on 1M chart.. that's how i catch 3x the 10 pips
No, with Pepperstone there was no gap. Also, I work with PRESET manual orders for now: when a new trade is opened, I immediately place an opposite direction pending BuyStop or SellStop order with related SL and TP.
  • #71
  • Sep 6, 2014 3:53am Sep 6, 2014 3:53am
Quoting Paracelsus
{quote} Sorry, my mistake. I had the impression that the strategy goes with the "flow" of the last 5 minutes before the "open", assuming that the "good 'ol London boys" place their bets just before the opening bell... ADDENDUM: LO: +10 pips (with 2nd entry) {image}
Love for all; Hatred for none.
  • #72
  • Sep 6, 2014 4:00am Sep 6, 2014 4:00am
I want to make it clear; It is totally wrong to place all buy orders and doubling the lots because if trend is down then your all orders will be negative. I chose this method that if price move in one direction (and that direction is not real trend then it will divert back to original trend) and without hitting TP ; price change its direction to regular trend then our TP will hit.

In short, this method is trick to catch the trend and remember that once trend direction is set ; your TP will hit.
Love for all; Hatred for none.
  • #73
  • Sep 6, 2014 7:09am Sep 6, 2014 7:09am
Quoting aahmad29
I want to make it clear; It is totally wrong to place all buy orders and doubling the lots because if trend is down then your all orders will be negative. I chose this method that if price move in one direction (and that direction is not real trend then it will divert back to original trend) and without hitting TP ; price change its direction to regular trend then our TP will hit. In short, this method is trick to catch the trend and remember that once trend direction is set ; your TP will hit.
Would you please clarify the rational behind starting with a "BUY" order all the time, irrespective of any and all other market factors (e.g. short or long term trend). Thanks!

(In my forward tests I have been going with the direction of the last 5M candle before LO and NYO, assuming that the "local good 'ol boys" must know something and they leave a trail as they place their bets.)
  • #74
  • Sep 6, 2014 9:03am Sep 6, 2014 9:03am
aahmad - I would have the same question. I would probably use some sort of filter (200 MA for example) or check that H1 and H4 candle colours agreed.
  • #75
  • Sep 6, 2014 9:53am Sep 6, 2014 9:53am
Quoting handy148
aahmad - I would have the same question. I would probably use some sort of filter (200 MA for example) or check that H1 and H4 candle colours agreed.
Backtests might suggest which candle (M5, M15, M30, H1, H4, or even D1, W1) or MA related value would serve the best to determine the initial trade's direction.

Nevertheless, statistically it may not matter on the long run, so even a "coin flip" before LO and NYO might be good enough. Since an EA cannot "flip a coin", any random direction (even the current concept of buying always with the first trade) might be just fine.

So far, strong "surprise" news have served well this strategy in my forward tests (i.e. rapid profits), so personally I would not stop the strategy before news. The only issue with news events might be a sudden wide "spread opening" > 8 pips (triggering rapid sequences of SL and reentries), but I would not expect it to see on EURUSD with a reputable ECN broker. Also, a spread/slippage filter built in an EA would easily prevent such malicious sequences.
  • #76
  • Sep 6, 2014 1:25pm Sep 6, 2014 1:25pm
Quoting Paracelsus
{quote} Would you please clarify the rational behind starting with a "BUY" order all the time, irrespective of any and all other market factors (e.g. short or long term trend). Thanks! (In my forward tests I have been going with the direction of the last 5M candle before LO and NYO, assuming that the "local good 'ol boys" must know something and they leave a trail as they place their bets.)
This system based on PA so we can modify it by looking first candle (open and close price). If open price is smaller than closed price it is buy and if open price is greater than closing price then it is sell.
Love for all; Hatred for none.
  • #77
  • Sep 6, 2014 1:53pm Sep 6, 2014 1:53pm
Quoting aahmad29
{quote} This system based on PA so we can modify it by looking first candle (open and close price). If open price is smaller than closed price it is buy and if open price is greater than closing price then it is sell.
Thanks for the response. It will be interesting to see the backtests for both entry methods, as I have been using exactly the opposite directions for the first trades (i.e. going with the last M5 candle's direction) in live manual forward tests (for both LO and NYO), and so far with excellent results.

It might be the "beauty" of this strategy that is does not matter if the first trade were a "buy" or "sell", in other words being a "quasi-nondirectional" strategy.
  • #78
  • Sep 6, 2014 4:28pm Sep 6, 2014 4:28pm
System is a martingale and martingales have a black swan...that one trade that finally does come and breaks it.

Also specially on 5 min.: stop hunting is done systematically by the robots....have a look at your stop and reverses, most likely they get hit were stop runs for the classical stop placing below last swing, trendline, round number, support and resistance...those levels are "liquidity pools", where robots push the market, to find all the sitting ducks, which get blown, and then the robot runs in the original direction with retail money...robots are run by the big banks...
I would play around starting right at those "stop run levels", if you havenīt identified them yet...well wipe your eyes and look carefully....
Big Boys are hard to read, but retailers easy....even on dayly and weekly....Big Boys have enough billions to manipulate the market.......itīs the name of the game...wonder why most are loosing?
Just open any chart, half of all big moves begin with a stop run...of maybe 2 to 10 pips...usually, after that the moves are very strong (guess who is doing that...)
  • #79
  • Edited 5:47am Sep 7, 2014 4:33am | Edited 5:47am
Quoting cuchuflito
System is a martingale and martingales have a black swan...that one trade that finally does come and breaks it. Also specially on 5 min.: stop hunting is done systematically by the robots....have a look at your stop and reverses, most likely they get hit were stop runs for the classical stop placing below last swing, trendline, round number, support and resistance...those levels are "liquidity pools", where robots push the market, to find all the sitting ducks, which get blown, and then the robot runs in the original direction with retail money...robots...
I am not the author of this strategy, but since I actually use this strategy on a LIVE account with good results, I might weigh in with my own view.

I have been around trading for long enough knowing that "classical" Martingale trading strategies don't work out on the long run. But this "strategy" is not really a trading strategy and not even a "classical" Martingale. As stated in Post No.1.: it is a "probability GAME strategy". In other words: it does not have to do much with trading.

Trading is only a "GAME TOOL" and the market is only its "PLAYGROUND".

The strategy's 10 pips TP and SL has been working out for me just fine. Over the past 5 weeks all the series have been profitable and not one series had to go above "Level_4" (i.e. TPs came before reaching Level_5). Of course, statistically speaking five weeks worth of data is practically nothing. But at least it is a "good start".

And yes, correct: "black swans" are born. Sometimes. The question is: How often?

Lets assume that we run a "swan hatching farm" as a business, and we receive 10 USD for each "white swan" from the local zoo, but we get 150 USD "fine" from the "swan authorities" if and when a "black swan" is born.

The question: Is it profitable to run a "swan farm"...? Hmmmm..... Let's think about it briefly.... You guessed right: It depends on the statistical frequency (i.e. probability) of hatching of "black swans".

This "probability game strategy" is like the above-mentioned "swan farm". The "black swans" are our Stop Losses, for example after Level_4 entries (i.e. we limit our losses). When we lose, we lose 15 units (1+2+4+8) when we win, we profit 1 unit.

So the profitability of this strategy depends on how often do we get our "black swans" (i.e. the stop losses) STATISTICALLY, with respect to the "law of large numbers", and with a (statistical) "p" value <0.001:

1:10...? 1:15...? 1:20...? 1:50....? I have no idea (yet). But with five years of EA backtests there will be a statistical probability with an excellent "p" value, meaning that the result will be statistically valid.

If 1:10: This "probability game strategy" is a loser and it might worth to look at "reverse trading" it.
If 1:15: Not worth to use it at all, as we would just feed the brokers and their LPs.
If 1:20: It is worth to give a shot (although the "margin of error" is low).
If 1:50: It is a "keeper"!!
If 1:5000: It is the "Holy Grail"...

As a side note: The stop losses of this strategy are NOT real "black swan" phenomena, as stop losses are "expected", in other words they should be viewed as "calculated risk". Real "black swan" events are unexpected, which is why they are "black". To read more about "black swan" events one might want to look into this book: http://www.amazon.com/The-Black-Swan.../dp/081297381X)

I think the above is the "essence" of this "probability game strategy" . Even with the occasional "grey swans"...
  • #80
  • Sep 8, 2014 1:13am Sep 8, 2014 1:13am
Quoting Paracelsus
{quote} I am not the author of this strategy, but since I actually use this strategy on a LIVE account with good results, I might weigh in with my own view. I have been around trading for long enough knowing that "classical" Martingale trading strategies don't work out on the long run. But this "strategy" is not really a trading strategy and not even a "classical" Martingale. As stated in Post No.1.: it is a "probability GAME strategy". In other words: it does not have to do much with trading. Trading is only a "GAME TOOL" and the market is only...
Seriously mate.... I like the way you think...

Time to think like a Casino Owner.

They do pay out when someone wins.... BUT they know that more people will lose far more often and THAT FACT more than makes up for the times when someone hits a jackpot. This thread's concept is no different. Just need to quantify the risk frequency of the inevitable winner(loser string in our case).

Spot on!
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