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Trading Without a StopLoss

  • #2,401
  • Aug 31, 2014 7:20pm Aug 31, 2014 7:20pm
Quoting nanningbob
LOL I hate news trading.
Trading news is like swimming with sharks ...
Don't swim with the sharks ...
  • #2,402
  • Aug 31, 2014 10:45pm Aug 31, 2014 10:45pm
Quoting nanningbob
LOL I hate news trading.
I am not a big fan either. I don't enjoy staring at the charts around data releases. I prefer to do my entry orders at the end of the New York session and check in at the beginning of the New York session. I still have a day job, and that seems to work pretty well for me.

When I used to dabble in trading around news, I found it extremely nerve wracking; guess it takes a trader with a steady hand ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #2,403
  • Aug 31, 2014 11:39pm Aug 31, 2014 11:39pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} I am not a big fan either. I don't enjoy staring at the charts around data releases. I prefer to do my entry orders at the end of the New York session and check in at the beginning of the New York session. I still have a day job, and that seems to work pretty well for me. When I used to dabble in trading around news, I found it extremely nerve wracking; guess it takes a trader with a steady hand ... .
Or.....a trader with positions small enough to withstand any kind of spike that any kind of news would deliver. If a central bank does not intervene and disrupt the trend, then all is well.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #2,404
  • Aug 31, 2014 11:55pm Aug 31, 2014 11:55pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Or.....a trader with positions small enough to withstand any kind of spike that any kind of news would deliver. If a central bank does not intervene and disrupt the trend, then all is well.
Exactly. With the small lots/small positions I've got, I have no problem "playing through ... ."
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #2,405
  • Sep 1, 2014 12:17am Sep 1, 2014 12:17am
Quoting nanningbob
LOL I hate news trading.
you do quite all right without it.
  • #2,406
  • Sep 1, 2014 2:37am Sep 1, 2014 2:37am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Exactly. With the small lots/small positions I've got, I have no problem "playing through ... ."
Playing through the news is a good way to put it. With the small lots, I need large rapid movements to make money. since I have every currency I trade bracketed, most of the surprises news events gives me are pleasant.
  • #2,407
  • Edited 10:18am Sep 4, 2014 8:16am | Edited 10:18am
hat I did this week:
%change in equity:+238%/annum
%change in balance:+54% annum
%change in P/L-50(good)
Margin Level %: 776.92
no of weeks since last taking a loss:0
no of trades open:11 0 pending
2%loss taken in gbp/usd which has continued downward. Made the loss back and over half again.
  • #2,408
  • Sep 4, 2014 11:03am Sep 4, 2014 11:03am
Quoting dare123
Good-day All, I choose to stop trading with stoploss. I now trade without stoploss. What do you think about trading without stoploss? and if you are currently trading this way or you have traded this way before, kindly share your expirience.

It is the only viable way for real Traders to trade. A stop loss is a guaranteed loss of potential revenue without the chance for parole on a bad decision you might make where the market reverses and leads to a delayed payoff. If you set an automated stop, you lock in that loss and never have the chance to apply corrective measures.

Both Stop Losses and FIFO should be a Federal Crime punishable by up to 1,000 years in prison. That's how painfully obvious my opinion of Stop Losses and FIFO turns out to be.

In trading, YOU are the "stop loss." It really speaks to one's ability to make good decisions. The sooner one gets off the Stop Loss Crutch, the sooner they will learn to trade like an adult. Stop Losses are for Novice Traders who really don't get the point, or for Automated Trend Following Systems, where a series of smaller losses is hopefully followed by the Mother Load Trade (LOL!). I don't mean to laugh, but it is kind of ridiculous when you "Stop" to think about it. Pun intended.

One is far better off spending their time learning the skill of how to properly Enter and properly Exit the market. That's what a Trader does by the way - they make Entry and Exit decisions. If one is going to use an automated trade system, then my opinion is that such systems should be open ended on the draw side and left open for the Trader to determine the exit. A Hybrid Automated Trading System, of course.

This really does get down to the idea of the Trader taking responsibility for doing the research necessary that helps them build the tools which tells them where the market is headed "next" with a high degree of probability based on empirical evidence. So, when we talk about Stop Losses, what we are really talking about is a Trader's dedication to the art/science/business of trading and the level of responsibility they bring to their craft.

Otherwise, one is just playing games and anyone can do that at Vegas, or any local Casino - there are plenty of them out there these days. I like Vegas, by the way. I like the shows, the lights, sometimes the food is good, rolling down the strip at night in a limo, the shopping - basically, just having some fun and blowing off some steam. But, gambling? Stop Losses? Why? I go play my two or three hands of 21, just to say I played a little "cards" at Vegas, but I don't go there to beat the House - because I know the deck is stacked so a far against me that I would need a Delta Force Team with me in order to leave Vegas with a fair amount of winnings - unless I was really lucky.

This does NOT include the game of Poker. Poker, is rather interesting and I'm learning how to play the game. You compete against other players and that enables you to develop an edge. If there is a real edge opportunity involved, THEN you can learn how to develop it. If there is no edge potential, it is just a game and the House will love you for playing it.

BE the stop loss.
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #2,409
  • Sep 4, 2014 12:28pm Sep 4, 2014 12:28pm
Quoting iDoubleStoch
{quote} It is the only viable way for real Traders to trade. A stop loss is a guaranteed loss of potential revenue without the chance for parole on a bad decision you might make where the market reverses and leads to a delayed payoff. If you set an automated stop, you lock in that loss and never have the chance to apply corrective measures. Both Stop Losses and FIFO should be a Federal Crime punishable by up to 1,000 years in prison. That's how painfully obvious my opinion of Stop Losses and FIFO turns out to be. In trading, YOU are the "stop loss."...
Well, idouble, I misread your intentions. That post was actually a great post for newbies to read.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #2,410
  • Sep 4, 2014 12:35pm Sep 4, 2014 12:35pm
@iDoubleStoch

I concur with you on all points
  • #2,411
  • Sep 4, 2014 2:07pm Sep 4, 2014 2:07pm
IDoubleStoch
do you mean That a tarder must find a 100 % winning system or find a system in the system to never have a losing trade?
Bottomless wonders spring from simple rules, which are repeated without end
  • #2,412
  • Sep 4, 2014 2:51pm Sep 4, 2014 2:51pm
Quoting limprobable
IDoubleStoch do you mean That a tarder must find a 100 % winning system or find a system in the system to never have a losing trade?

No, of course not. I don't have a 100% winning system and I've been trying to build one for over a decade. And, what does winning system mean anyway. There are some days when I lose money that day, but get it back the next day, or the day after that. Did I really really lose money? What I really lost was Time and you could say that Time = Money. That would be true, especially for a Trader. But, as long as I reach my Monthly goals, I am ok with losses. I don't get twisted in knots over sporadic losses. It will happen - even to the best Traders on earth.

If you manage your money a certain way, you wan be profitable with a less than 50% accurate system. But, again - what does accuracy really mean. One has to define accuracy to include price follow through to a specified target. That's why you always hear me talk about a "specified target." If there is no specified target, then one has to simply track net gains and losses, then define accuracy as whether or not they made or lost money that day. That's one way to define accuracy, just not the way I define it.

If I were to define accuracy that way, then I have not had a losing month in eons - but that does not say much because that could mean a net gain of just 1% per month. While that is better than a net loss of 1% per months, it won't pay my bills. So, accuracy must be defined as Entry to Target with sufficient Pips that move the needle and grow the account by a minimum amount per given time interval. That is a more useful form of accuracy in my mine because it gets me somewhere over time, as opposed to being able to merely say that I did not have a losing month in 3 years of trading - that might not be saying much at all.

If you have a minimum target of 38 pips per day and you have been clocking that at 93.42% for the past 280 days - THEN you are saying something about real accuracy. But, one does not need that level of accuracy to be successful as a Trader - it really depends on how you define success which is predicated upon what your goals, as that defines the reason why you are trading in the first place.

Trading for trading sake is pointless, unless you are just doing this as a fun hobby - nothing wrong having this as a fun hobby. People have all kinds of hobbies. However, if this is your livelihood, career and business, then you had better have a Strategic Revenue Growth Plan and you need to learn how to double your account in a reasonable amount of time - if you are starting out with typical retail trader account sizes. If you are just getting into trading or Fx in general, then you should not be out there opening accounts with $300k to start off with. You might have the ability to open an account at $10 mln or more, but that in no way means that you are ready to trade at that level. You can kid yourself if you want. but you are going to lose a ton of capital before you learn the ropes.

You can take $2k, trade microbes and learn the ropes - if- you are willing to put in the time to do it right. Everyone has to pay their dues. Learning to trade is just like going to college and getting a degree - it will cost you real money to do it. No one is exempt for the cost of their trading education. It will cost you money to learn this business. But, it does not have to cost you everything.

So, 100% accurate system - no. But, one does need to take the matter of having a Revenue Model seriously, if one intends to run their trading like a business - which is the way they should run their trading. If this is just a hobby - then whatever floats your Fun Boat will do. Serious Trades have targets, goals, levels, destinations, time tables, metrics and a way to measure it all to make certain they are on track, and to make adjustments when they get off track.
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #2,413
  • Sep 4, 2014 2:57pm Sep 4, 2014 2:57pm
You can give people all the answers in the world, give them the keys! yet bottom line is trading is hard work and you have to really want it, study it, learn it, master the craft, put the time in like any other business or endeavor you take on.
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #2,414
  • Sep 4, 2014 3:00pm Sep 4, 2014 3:00pm
Quoting Rtm
You can give people all the answers in the world, give them the keys! yet bottom line is trading is hard work and you have to really want it, study it, learn it, master the craft, put the time in like any other business or endeavor you take on.
I couldn't agree with rtm enough. Struggling traders need to concentrate on focus and learning, not making money. Make some market concepts that resonate with you second nature, instead of trading whatever new system they see and then quickly moving on to the next when they're not making money.

I've been there, it's not a fun cycle.
  • #2,415
  • Sep 4, 2014 3:21pm Sep 4, 2014 3:21pm
Quoting iDoubleStoch
{quote} It is the only viable way for real Traders to trade. A stop loss is a guaranteed loss of potential revenue without the chance for parole on a bad decision you might make where the market reverses and leads to a delayed payoff. If you set an automated stop, you lock in that loss and never have the chance to apply corrective measures. Both Stop Losses and FIFO should be a Federal Crime punishable by up to 1,000 years in prison. That's how painfully obvious my opinion of Stop Losses and FIFO turns out to be. In trading, YOU are the "stop loss."...
Ok, at a real computer....

can't paste enough times for this post. LOADED with good stuff.

The majority of traders forget that money is NOT LOST OR GAINED until you BUY or SELL. Outside of that it's unrealized gain/loss. Simply hold it 'til it's winning and you didn't lose.

Keep your margin use in check and it's really crazy how far the market has to move against you to really have a problem.
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #2,416
  • Sep 4, 2014 3:34pm Sep 4, 2014 3:34pm
Quoting VaBikePacker
{quote} Ok, at a real computer.... can't paste enough times for this post. LOADED with good stuff. The majority of traders forget that money is NOT LOST OR GAINED until you BUY or SELL. Outside of that it's unrealized gain/loss. Simply hold it 'til it's winning and you didn't lose. Keep your margin use in check and it's really crazy how far the market has to move against you to really have a problem.
For me the market has to move nearly 1000 pips against me. However, on the pairs that I trade, that is only two weeks of adverse movement.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #2,417
  • Sep 4, 2014 3:37pm Sep 4, 2014 3:37pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} For me the market has to move nearly 1000 pips against me. However, on the pairs that I trade, that is only two weeks of adverse movement.
I think about 3000 is where I really like to be...or higher...that might tighten up a little over time...
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #2,418
  • Sep 4, 2014 3:47pm Sep 4, 2014 3:47pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Well, idouble, I misread your intentions. That post was actually a great post for newbies to read.

No problem - it is easy to misread people on a forum and I like helping novice Traders when they don't mind thinking outside the box of convention.
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #2,419
  • Sep 4, 2014 4:09pm Sep 4, 2014 4:09pm
Quoting VaBikePacker
{quote} Ok, at a real computer.... can't paste enough times for this post. LOADED with good stuff. The majority of traders forget that money is NOT LOST OR GAINED until you BUY or SELL. Outside of that it's unrealized gain/loss. Simply hold it 'til it's winning and you didn't lose. Keep your margin use in check and it's really crazy how far the market has to move against you to really have a problem.
You can hold it, but there had better be a really good reason for doing so, like a really good understanding of the overlying higher time frames and what the probability is for those time frames to deliver the goods over a longer than expected trade cycle. But, it is hard to get a novice Trader to understand that, let alone have the stomach for it. Not everyone has the stomach for it.

Learning how to cut losses properly is not a bad thing either, as long as it does not turn into Revenge Trading. The methodical recovery of lost capital with tactical trades, is just as important a skill for the novice Trader, as knowing how long to hold a position. A held position is not "bad" unless the market takes too long to return to BE. In that case, you lose both Time and Money, the worst case scenario. A position can be good for BE, yet ill timed for positive net profits - that too, is a strong lesson for the novice to learn.

Too often, the novice Trader has the wrong expectation at the point of entry, believing that merely because they showed up to take part in the market, that the market somehow knew they were coming and should immediately start moving in the direction of their signal. This is self-delusion and it must be uprooted from the novice Trader's thought process. This of course, leads to the matter of MFE/MAE Analysis.

If Traders are not doing at least MAE study on their signals (whether that signal be technical or fundamental), then they don't have the slightest clue what their Draw Phase expectation should be, or when things might be going ballistic against their position. The Maximum Adverse Extension is data that needs to be understood and used by the Trader, not ignored and misunderstood by the Trader, like so many do.

The novice Trader will start to show signs of becoming an experienced Trader with skill, after they start exhibiting an agile Trader's thought process on a number of different fronts. This will give the Trader a "feeling" of being "in sync" with the market, instead of constantly out of touch with market moves.

One of those agile thoughts could be the use of market movement into the MAE leg of a particular signal first, before the market moves back into MFE range. An agile Trader, would allow for such movement and then intercept the normal entry with one that exists in the MAE leg, allowing for increased potential profits and greater risk mitigation. However, teaching a nube how to intercept a trade entry during the MAE phase when they think the market heading in the wrong direction anyway, is like trying to teach a baby chick how to fly.
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #2,420
  • Sep 4, 2014 4:11pm Sep 4, 2014 4:11pm
Quoting iDoubleStoch
{quote} It is the only viable way for real Traders to trade. A stop loss is a guaranteed loss of potential revenue without the chance for parole on a bad decision you might make where the market reverses and leads to a delayed payoff. If you set an automated stop, you lock in that loss and never have the chance to apply corrective measures. Both Stop Losses and FIFO should be a Federal Crime punishable by up to 1,000 years in prison. That's how painfully obvious my opinion of Stop Losses and FIFO turns out to be. In trading, YOU are the "stop loss."...
The key to trading without a stoploss appears to be the margin. If you are a newbe you should really study the relationship between number of trades, P/L size, balance, equity, and margin. Get on top of that and you will find the ideal entry point does not matter nearly as much as it appears to a newby.

nice post, iDoubleStoch!
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