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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #15,961
  • Sep 4, 2014 10:18am Sep 4, 2014 10:18am
Quoting infinitus
EU weekly chart we are entering now the centre of a high-volume area. Rejections or reversals do happen here quiet often. The red marked area has given rejection in the past quiet often. The area below of the red area is area with fairly low traded volume. So when red breaks to the downside, we should see smooth sailing until the 1.18-1.20 area {image}

Hi Friends,

hope that nobody got a bleeding nose today.


The above mentioned red area: price is approaching it fast.

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  • #15,962
  • Edited 11:11am Sep 4, 2014 10:28am | Edited 11:11am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} well done my friend and thanks for all of the material posted in my quant thread. Had no time to read or reply, but looks good and promising. Will dig through it on weekend after rowing regatta
Hello Infinitus,
So without any further ado, I would like to send a special big hello....in this way, enjoying your clear & helpful statements.
ta-ta for now.
FXcube
  • #15,963
  • Sep 4, 2014 1:28pm Sep 4, 2014 1:28pm
Quoting andexQ
{quote} Ok, so USD picked option No. 2 ...., What next ? Next we'll wait for exhaustion of this bloody strong Up-trend. Where it will be exhausted ? I don't know.. When it will be exhausted ? I don't know too.. Why I don't know ? Because they keep buying USD even more... even at this high ! Stay tune

At this time USD Up-move stopped at highest level 83.89 and in my observation there is no significant selling compare to their buying.
I think this is just a pause not exhaustion.. maybe target for consolidation is around 84.00 or so.. not sure.

G.Nite
  • #15,964
  • Sep 4, 2014 3:01pm Sep 4, 2014 3:01pm
E/U Daily chart...

MAJOR R 3500 zone
MAJOR S 2750 zone

now 2890...290x may offer some support... cannal and 0.7x fibb ret from 2750 to 3500..

we will see..


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  • #15,965
  • Sep 4, 2014 3:35pm Sep 4, 2014 3:35pm
grrr - had a meeting all day and could not follow the news, decided to not trade it. Having had to miss this opportunity almost hurts.

2750-2780 seems a reasonably close attractor now.
  • #15,966
  • Sep 4, 2014 4:06pm Sep 4, 2014 4:06pm
well, well, well.....


some comments about my volume based trading model:


in combination with Murrey Math and Elliott wave, my volume profiles gave me good entries and exits when both of the following was there:

a) price was more or less ranging

b) due to the ranging nature I had valid volume profiles on more than one TF


Since we do rend strongly since months, I have only one volume distribution left which is evaluable: that is the 32 months distributions.

Best results in the past (in the ranging days) was the 5.3 days distribution (the Murrey Math 4h TF or 4h x 32).


Murrey Math is not very helpful in strong trending markets, and my system of volume profiles is suboptimal with only one distribution left.


Since weeks we do see now on lower TF's so called run-away-distributions. That are distributions that run in one direction without building Gaussian distributions.

I made a fault around 340-335, because I went net long. That was some weeks before my vacation started. It was a tiny position. I was stopped out of them when price broke again the 3330 to the downside. So I gave back some of my gains.

Then I thought, that the 3303 no-business-zone would offer some support, because it was a major one. But it was broken with ease, although price retested it from the under side. Again I lost a few pips here.

Then there was/is the 3080-3095 high-volume area, a very strong POC.

My initial plan was to long towards this level. Luckily for me today I came to late to my trading desk, so I stayed short. Would I have been at my trading desk earlier, I surly would have tried a long there.


My systems gave me very contrary signals:

my volume models as well as Murrey math suggested long positions

my EW counts hinted to a danger of an accelerating move down (which we got today).


So what is the learning here?

In sideways markets EW sucks, but sideways markets are the domain of Murrey Math and volume profiles.

In strong trending markets Murrey Math and volume profiles suck, but strong trending markets are good predictable with EW


Should keep that in mind :-)
  • #15,967
  • Sep 4, 2014 5:02pm Sep 4, 2014 5:02pm
EU

8h TF


well, so far the move down is clearly accelerating down as can be seen on the following chart. That can mean, that we are at the point of recognition today. And that is most of the time the wave 3 of 3. On the picture it is labeled as the wave 5 of 3. So chance is high that this count is wrong and that we have to find a new labelling.

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So in case we are heading further down - where is the next support?

So let us look at the weekly chart we can see in the picture the hot red zone, where price found rejection oftentimes in the past. When the 2764 breaks to the downside, we will have smooth sailing on a low volume leg towards the 20x support shelf.

Counting on the weekly, I would say the sequence is:

1-2-(1-2-now in 3

Since we see acceleration with high momentum, the 2754 support may be easily taken out with the (supposed to be) ongoing wave 3 of 3. Maybe we get a retest of the 2754 support turned resistance from the underside, which then would constitute a wave 4 or a wave 4 of 3.

We will see soon enough


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  • #15,968
  • Sep 4, 2014 5:03pm Sep 4, 2014 5:03pm
USDJPY preaparing for more up moves, not gona trade it just keeping eye for direction (same for USDCHF, dollar basically in general):
http://prntscr.com/4jq7ic

CHFJPY target/entry areas, rather easy one, goes along GBPJPY at least 20 pips more downside, but looks like 50-100 more to bottom of demand zone. Basically USDJPY will not follow other JPYs.
http://prntscr.com/4jq8r2

Posted gold short target areas on previous page, which again all worked perfectly, havent taken entries however as i wait to plant pending longs tomorrow ahead of finished NATO bullshit. Long entry is valid on 1261 to 1265 as long as 1261 h1 support holds, or better something much lower in case if we see drop before summit ends.
  • #15,969
  • Sep 4, 2014 5:43pm Sep 4, 2014 5:43pm
Gold


test-break-and retest of a trendline


chance now very high, that it will not recover so fast
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  • #15,970
  • Sep 4, 2014 5:50pm Sep 4, 2014 5:50pm
EU long term volume profile

2765 and 2625-2675 will get interesting
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  • #15,971
  • Sep 5, 2014 4:07am Sep 5, 2014 4:07am
Quoting janpec1000
USDJPY preaparing for more up moves, not gona trade it just keeping eye for direction (same for USDCHF, dollar basically in general): http://prntscr.com/4jq7ic CHFJPY target/entry areas, rather easy one, goes along GBPJPY at least 20 pips more downside, but looks like 50-100 more to bottom of demand zone. Basically USDJPY will not follow other JPYs. http://prntscr.com/4jq8r2 Posted gold short target areas on previous page, which again all worked perfectly, havent taken entries however as i wait to plant pending longs tomorrow...
CHFJPY done, reached my first target area and droped 30 which is about targeted aim for now. I had very small position as i split it in bigger position on 3rd upper zone but still some profits overall. GJ also droped as said even more, 50 pips. Was thinking to place it there too but ended not to.

USDJPY performed exactly as expected, it went against other JPY pairs and broken high as posted on previous picture, for 40 pip rally.


Infinitus as for gold if i can repaint your pic, this price structure is heavily bearish with target of 1200ish, however lets see first what NATO does, but in any case i dont expect enough momentum from it to bring price up longer term.
http://prntscr.com/4juela

As for short term Gold view here is plan:
http://prntscr.com/4jug8k
  • #15,972
  • Sep 5, 2014 5:11am Sep 5, 2014 5:11am
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
BofAML Closes EURUSD Short, Fears Squeeze Higher

"
Now, momentum and sentiment have reached bearish extremes which have often preceded a turn higher.
Specifically, daily RSI has reached its lowest levels since 2Q12, while the DSI (Daily Sentiment Index) has reached 6% bulls, the lowest since July'13 (see chart on page 2). These conditions make the potential for a technical squeeze/correction higher too large to ignore.
However, we must stress that a €/$ bounce must be seen as corrective/ temporary and ultimately an opportunity to re-set shorts for 1.2787/1.2694 and potentially below to the 1.22/1.18 area
  • #15,973
  • Sep 5, 2014 5:17am Sep 5, 2014 5:17am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} CHFJPY done, reached my first target area and droped 30 which is about targeted aim for now. I had very small position as i split it in bigger position on 3rd upper zone but still some profits overall. GJ also droped as said even more, 50 pips. Was thinking to place it there too but ended not to. USDJPY performed exactly as expected, it went against other JPY pairs and broken high as posted on previous picture, for 40 pip rally. Infinitus as for gold if i can repaint your pic, this price structure is heavily bearish with target of 1200ish,...

Hi Jan,


regarding Gold:

very interesting situation now.

If Gold chooses to go south, first targets will be in the 1100-1000 area.But we shall keep in mind, that commodities tend to show extended wave 5's, so I would love to see Gold reaching sub 800
  • #15,974
  • Sep 5, 2014 5:50am Sep 5, 2014 5:50am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Jan, regarding Gold: very interesting situation now. If Gold chooses to go south, first targets will be in the 1100-1000 area.But we shall keep in mind, that commodities tend to show extended wave 5's, so I would love to see Gold reaching sub 800
Indeed, it can go easy south, but it could go aswell up as long as there is massive push on upside, talking about 300-500 pips push which is very unlikely but lets see.
In either case i have loaded first long on 1264, holding for +23 atm, not closing before market close, hopefully release of Nato bullshit before market closes.

AJ looks like nice setup, not gona take it but should work out as long as line holds / is not tested.
http://prntscr.com/4juzrl
  • #15,975
  • Sep 5, 2014 6:32am Sep 5, 2014 6:32am
EU

2min TF

resistance zones
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  • #15,976
  • Sep 5, 2014 7:38am Sep 5, 2014 7:38am
‘Limits to Growth’ vindicated: World headed towards economic, environmental collapse 52
  • #15,977
  • Sep 5, 2014 9:31am Sep 5, 2014 9:31am
Horvat on EU

EW

http://www.forexcrunch.com/more-usd-...wave-analysis/
  • #15,978
  • Edited 9:49am Sep 5, 2014 9:38am | Edited 9:49am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Indeed, it can go easy south, but it could go aswell up as long as there is massive push on upside, talking about 300-500 pips push which is very unlikely but lets see. In either case i have loaded first long on 1264, holding for +23 atm, not closing before market close, hopefully release of Nato bullshit before market closes. AJ looks like nice setup, not gona take it but should work out as long as line holds / is not tested. http://prntscr.com/4juzrl
Yup gold went up 100 as said short term. It triggered my BE SL for 10 pips and then went up 100, well was good try.
AJ did not follow break higher, its failing as we speak.

NATO bullshit just released from its supreme commander, as expected NATO to deploy blietzkrieg units.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...ussia-responds

That was expected to happen, but still there was rather very diverse news comming ahead that nothing much was actually agreed on NATO meeting itself especially from main EU leaders such as Germany and France. What this shows very nicely is that how NATO is actually being played by two different forces, one are conventional big EU countries leaders as those two and the rest is actual NATO command line along with Obama and UK (and possibly Netherlands and Sweden). Obama was actively campaining in Baltic states for to step up against Russia with proper war talk along with NATOs commander and chief in line to deploy troops in Ukraine. Merket has even been talking about breaking up sanctions, while its nicely seen that USA with deploying 1k troops and NATO chiefs to do the same clearly do not want at all any peace to being. So looks like afterall we might have to cut some slack to Merkel. But then again if whole "legal" actions of NATO are in hands of commander obviously it doesnt matter at all what Merkel or Hollande do, becouse all they can really do is not extend NATO spending seems like and globalists agenda keeps going.


Additionally update to my previous calls for EJ , GJ and CJ they all sank lower to tops/bottoms of demand zones as posted on pictures. All of them are now showing quite bearish picture long term, however most important defences have yet not been taken out, monthly supports and also chance of BOJ to print further maybe in October or November. Give of 170 on GJ, 112 on CJ ,135.5 on EJ are shorts on table for me.

EDIT: gold has now reached 1250ish area that i was looking for, 1257 looks good enough, its right tipity top of demand zone, so now i am flat mid term, which means take of 1300 only would be bullish and break of 1250 would be bearish so either way has to go for bigger trend trades.
  • #15,979
  • Sep 5, 2014 9:49am Sep 5, 2014 9:49am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Yup gold went up 100 as said short term. It triggered my BE SL for 10 pips and then went up 100, well was good try. AJ did not follow break higher, its failing as we speak. NATO bullshit just released from its supreme commander, as expected NATO to deploy blietzkrieg units. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...ussia-responds That was expected to happen, but still there was rather very diverse news comming ahead that nothing much was actually agreed on NATO meeting...

  • #15,980
  • Sep 5, 2014 9:58am Sep 5, 2014 9:58am
Manually drawn S/R levels

blue daily, red, weekly, pink monthly


EU 1h TF

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