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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #15,941
  • Sep 1, 2014 4:08pm Sep 1, 2014 4:08pm
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
Hi, Infinitus, buddy I am back to work now. So I am glad you are well and doing your the Club job. Let us continue discussing and processing the project. Best regads D.P.

Hi D.P.,

glad to see that you are back. Hope you had a nice time.

Will write you an email tomorrow or the day after. Am a bit busy right now. My vacation has ended and my job needs me
  • #15,942
  • Sep 2, 2014 12:08am Sep 2, 2014 12:08am
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
Ex-NSA Director, US Intelligence Veterans Write Open Letter To Merkel To Avoid All-Out Ukraine War
  • #15,943
  • Sep 2, 2014 12:15am Sep 2, 2014 12:15am
Quoting andexQ
{quote} They try to fill the gap on Weekly chart (leftside of redlines) with high buying on Daily chart (red rectangle), if they are success then will make EU down deeper., really deep. {image}

Hmm.. look like that gap already closed.
From here I think we can expect 2 options for USD:

1). A retest of that gap, (maybe 1 - 3 days Up and then 1 day Down).

2). Continuation of strong Up-trend.

I keep my eye close to USD.. will post when there is new development.
  • #15,944
  • Sep 2, 2014 12:52am Sep 2, 2014 12:52am
EU weekly chart

we are entering now the centre of a high-volume area. Rejections or reversals do happen here quiet often.

The red marked area has given rejection in the past quiet often.

The area below of the red area is area with fairly low traded volume. So when red breaks to the downside, we should see smooth sailing until the 1.18-1.20 area
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_Weekly_snapshot.png Size: 35 KB
  • #15,945
  • Sep 2, 2014 2:50am Sep 2, 2014 2:50am
Quoting infinitus
I see a nice impulsive wave up since the low question is: is this the c-wave impulse of an ABC-flat, the A-wave of an ABC-zigzag, or the wave 1 of an impulse? Answers? Anyone?
Notice your question only today. I think there is one other possible option to the impulse wave up.

It could be the wave a of a running correction with an extended wave b or as Hennessy called it RTB (retrending wave B) taking place in this 5th wave in a sequence of i-ii-iii-a-b-c-i-ii-iii-a-b-c-i .......
Now in wave x of b as I write.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM15 08.png Size: 53 KB
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #15,946
  • Sep 2, 2014 3:12am Sep 2, 2014 3:12am
Quoting infinitus
{image} Ex-NSA Director, US Intelligence Veterans Write Open Letter To Merkel To Avoid All-Out Ukraine War
Lets see September 5th results. If anyone can decrease chances of conflict that would be Merkel. I doubt it but lets be optimistic. But then again there is enough puppet Nato states to outvote Germany.
  • #15,947
  • Sep 2, 2014 3:58am Sep 2, 2014 3:58am
From Swissquote:

Challenging the key support at 1.3105.

• EUR/USD is challenging its key support at
1.3105 (06/09/2013 low). Hourly resistances for a
short-term bounce can be found at 1.3221
(28/08/2014 high) and 1.3297 (22/08/2014 high).

• In the longer term, EUR/USD is in a succession
of lower highs and lower lows since May 2014. A
long-term decline towards the strong support
area between 1.2755 (09/07/2013 low) and 1.2662
(13/11/2012 low) is favoured. However, in the
shorter term, monitor the test of the key support
at 1.3105 (06/09/2013 low) given the general
oversold conditions. A key resistance lies at
1.3444 (28/07/2014 high).
Bavarian Trading FX
  • #15,948
  • Sep 2, 2014 5:05am Sep 2, 2014 5:05am
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...-for-sept.html

Shanghai exchange opening at end of September, prices settled in yuan.
  • #15,949
  • Edited 3:53pm Sep 2, 2014 5:18am | Edited 3:53pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Everything worked out, all three of predictions (charts). Managed to get some pips of Gold. GCHF meanwhile looks good for more upside on GBP strenght, but possibly not much. Red line represents buying valid as long as line holds: http://prntscr.com/4io4s8 However shorts are better option from area 1.530-1.540 with big SL above daily high.
Gold reached secondary target. Waiting for 1250ish area now, not selling or buying here.

audchf
http://prntscr.com/4iwl2i

EDIT:
EJ longs will look once resistance is taken on daily (h4 close above).
http://prntscr.com/4iyn6h

Meanwhile gold tanking towards 1250 as expected, massacre trough futures market, pretty much typical manipulation day, first big plug right on main support and then keep pushing in 3 or 4 consequitive dumps trough London and NY.

EDIT 2:
US troops now officially going in Ukraine, not just mercenary army but proper flag soldiers. Chances of Nato summit to conclude major Russian sanctions and expansion of agression in Ukraine i think about 80-90%. This thing just went from provocative coup to proxy war to cold war faster than any world war or any regional conflicts in past, so it wouldnt be surprising to see clash in weeks.
  • #15,950
  • Sep 3, 2014 4:10am Sep 3, 2014 4:10am
Good morning friends,


sorry for participating so less - am a bit busy right now :-(


Here some EW analysis:

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2014/0...eptember-2014/
  • #15,951
  • Sep 3, 2014 3:10pm Sep 3, 2014 3:10pm
Quoting skyhok
{quote} Notice your question only today. I think there is one other possible option to the impulse wave up. It could be the wave a of a running correction with an extended wave b or as Hennessy called it RTB (retrending wave B) taking place in this 5th wave in a sequence of i-ii-iii-a-b-c-i-ii-iii-a-b-c-i ....... Now in wave x of b as I write. {image}

Hi Skyhok,

I have read Hennessy's work. When it works - why not

I for one will stay with pure EW. I think one have to draw a decision with which EW one goes: EW, HEW, Hennessy's work, Neely's approach, etc.

As long as one stays within the limits of those streams it seems to be OK. The mess will start, when people mix them all together.
  • #15,952
  • Sep 3, 2014 3:10pm Sep 3, 2014 3:10pm
http://rt.com/in-motion/184532-volca...d-aerial-lava/

nice pictures from volcano in Iceland
  • #15,953
  • Edited 9:47pm Sep 3, 2014 8:49pm | Edited 9:47pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Skyhok, I have read Hennessy's work. When it works - why not I for one will stay with pure EW. I think one have to draw a decision with which EW one goes: EW, HEW, Hennessy's work, Neely's approach, etc. As long as one stays within the limits of those streams it seems to be OK. The mess will start, when people mix them all together.
Appreciate your comment and agree. I use Neely's approach while finding Hennessy's working as well in recent trending markets.
I think I'll stay calling them as running corrections.
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #15,954
  • Sep 4, 2014 3:52am Sep 4, 2014 3:52am
Come on gold one more push to 1250 that would be nice to buy from tomorrow, however technicals are not too good short term for down:
http://prntscr.com/4jj41i
Longer term nothing has changed still picture on downside.

AUDCHF buildup before break:
http://prntscr.com/4jj5j5
  • #15,955
  • Sep 4, 2014 6:56am Sep 4, 2014 6:56am
Quoting Forexcube
I've taken some shorts more (@ 1.3133) till 1.3070/60. One bigger H4 candles could be sufficient, ...everywhere, ...anytime. (All my longer term trades are long with an MM till 1.20, if so.) So long as 1.3163 (mR1) shouldn't be running down I take the risk over, ...more downside. Let's see. FXcube Der Vorteil der Klugheit besteht darin, dass man sich dumm stellen kann. Das Gegenteil ist schon schwieriger. ... Kurt Tucholsky.
#15'938

& here it is...!
Profit: +63, +73

EURUSD, H1, 2014 September 04
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD, H1, 2014 September 04, v3.jpg Size: 103 KB
  • #15,956
  • Sep 4, 2014 8:24am Sep 4, 2014 8:24am
Quoting janpec1000
Come on gold one more push to 1250 that would be nice to buy from tomorrow, however technicals are not too good short term for down: http://prntscr.com/4jj41i Longer term nothing has changed still picture on downside. AUDCHF buildup before break: http://prntscr.com/4jj5j5
AUDCHF done, 110 pips.
  • #15,957
  • Sep 4, 2014 9:13am Sep 4, 2014 9:13am
Quoting andexQ
{quote} Hmm.. look like that gap already closed. From here I think we can expect 2 options for USD: 1). A retest of that gap, (maybe 1 - 3 days Up and then 1 day Down). 2). Continuation of strong Up-trend. I keep my eye close to USD.. will post when there is new development.


Ok, so USD picked option No. 2 ...., What next ?

Next we'll wait for exhaustion of this bloody strong Up-trend.

Where it will be exhausted ?
I don't know..

When it will be exhausted ?
I don't know too..

Why I don't know ?
Because they keep buying USD even more... even at this high !



Stay tune
  • #15,958
  • Sep 4, 2014 9:57am Sep 4, 2014 9:57am
Quoting Forexcube
{quote} #15'938 & here it is...! Profit: +63, +73 EURUSD, H1, 2014 September 04 {image}


well done my friend


and thanks for all of the material posted in my quant thread. Had no time to read or reply, but looks good and promising. Will dig through it on weekend after rowing regatta
  • #15,959
  • Sep 4, 2014 9:58am Sep 4, 2014 9:58am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} AUDCHF done, 110 pips.


very very good
  • #15,960
  • Sep 4, 2014 10:17am Sep 4, 2014 10:17am
Quoting infinitus
EU Murrey Math levels and direction probability for a bigger bounce in the 3092-3062 area is getting quiet huge Keep in mind: around 3090 is the POC of the last 32 months. It has a great chance of getting hit(+/- 10 pips) Break of this POC may lead to the low- or no-business zones in the 2765 and below zone, foremost 2680 and below But such strong POC's like the 3090 one most of the time get a rejection first. There are eventually a lot of "historical" positions, which were in heavy drawdown meanwhile, and people will like to get rid of them...

The super strong POC was broken with ease.

I have witnessed it now a few times, that price often stops in front of such POC's (and even no-business-zones), without touching them, then consolidates (momentum reloading?), and then breaks those zones in a hurry.

The 32-monthly volume distribution has a nice Gaussian shape so far. The +2 SD zone was around 1.40 or slightly above. Now the -2 SD zone is ar 2354. Just to mention it.

I have not taken any longs yet, because price dropped to early and I was not at my trading desk. I arrived my trading desk @ 13:50 CET and Draghi was scheduled for 14:15 CET. I made the mistake by thinking, that the Bid-rate would also be set at that time LOL


My thoughts about momentum in my previous postings were right so far. Most Elliotticans saw us at the end of a completed 5 waves down, but I argued, that we would have recently too much momentum (down) for a wave 5. So I showed a count, were we are within a wave 3, which unfolds as multiple 1-2 moves.

Have to elaborate this this evening further. Have to run for an appointment right now.

Quick and dirty chart right now:

8h TF


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_8 Hours_snapshot.png Size: 53 KB
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