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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #14,361
  • Sep 4, 2014 3:24am Sep 4, 2014 3:24am
Quoting IveGotQuads
{quote} If you take a look at the Gbp/Usd daily charts you just might change your opinion. I have a sell order @ 172.63 and 172.05 for my intraday trade but theres an opportunity to stack on my profits.
Yes I know there is money to be made on both sides but somehow I feel GJ is trapped, GU is definitely down but look at UJ as well. I don't know if you look at GU - GJ - UJ all together. Also I was referring to long-term targets. With BoJ Governor today saying that they will continue with QQE as long as necessary and see current level of Jpy weakness good for economy, I don't see why it should not be in the region of 176-178 by the year end. With UK doing well on the fundamental front, although it would be tricky, I see BoE would be the first one to do the rate adjustment, so for me upside is intact.

I do see some further down-side may be till 171.50 or so but again that would be a good level for long entry. Again these are my personal views, you need good money management if you are planning for long term position trades, so would not advice anyone to follow it blindly.

@Tony1: I have a target for 175/176 but again that is a long-term view.


PS Add: I would be very happy if we could bring this thread back to life!
  • #14,362
  • Sep 4, 2014 3:37am Sep 4, 2014 3:37am
Quoting Barca
Going Long with TP 173.20/25..then short from there..
I like your trade idea but I am very nervous buying into resistance @ 172.75 That used to be a very strong support zone now turned resistance. That means increased energy is needed to break through that line. A tough trade indeed but if you working off the 200 MA and the bank rate news coming out then I can see why, I defer to zones before I look at indicators though.
  • #14,363
  • Sep 4, 2014 3:43am Sep 4, 2014 3:43am
Quoting workingforex
{quote} Yes I know there is money to be made on both sides but somehow I feel GJ is trapped, GU is definitely down but look at UJ as well. I don't know if you look at GU - GJ - UJ all together. Also I was referring to long-term targets. With BoJ Governor today saying that they will continue with QQE as long as necessary and see current level of Jpy weakness good for economy, I don't see why it should not be in the region of 176-178 by the year end.
Yep, most definitely. Ive made some money on the buy side, and I actually see it lower to 165 by years end.
  • #14,364
  • Sep 4, 2014 3:48am Sep 4, 2014 3:48am
The only question I have is...what happens at 172.2?​
  • #14,365
  • Sep 4, 2014 3:58am Sep 4, 2014 3:58am
H4 chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GJ.jpg Size: 95 KB
  • #14,366
  • Sep 4, 2014 4:03am Sep 4, 2014 4:03am
Quoting IveGotQuads
{quote} Yep, most definitely. Ive made some money on the buy side, and I actually see it lower to 165 by years end.
If it proves to be bearish and it slips under 170.4 and 169.5, make that in less than 2 MONTHS
  • #14,367
  • Sep 4, 2014 4:06am Sep 4, 2014 4:06am
Quoting IveGotQuads
{quote} Yep, most definitely. Ive made some money on the buy side, and I actually see it lower to 165 by years end.
No offence please but would you mind me asking the rationale for that.
  • #14,368
  • Sep 4, 2014 4:10am Sep 4, 2014 4:10am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} If it proves to be bearish and it slips under 170.4 and 169.5, make that in less than 2 MONTHS
Now that is an account doubling event...all we have to worry about is greed and fear unfortunately I have to get ready for work. I trade just within the 2-5am 3 hr window. Good luck guys
  • #14,369
  • Sep 4, 2014 4:12am Sep 4, 2014 4:12am
Quoting workingforex
{quote} No offence please but would you mind me asking the rationale for that.
Hey not trying to ignore you..Ill post it tomorrow morning. cheers !!
  • #14,370
  • Sep 4, 2014 4:16am Sep 4, 2014 4:16am
Quoting IveGotQuads
{quote} Hey not trying to ignore you..Ill post it tomorrow morning. cheers !!
Not a problem buddy! Work is more important.
  • #14,371
  • Sep 4, 2014 5:03am Sep 4, 2014 5:03am
​I reckon it's bearish, but do not be surprised if it doesn't move decisively to the downside for another 20 or so hours.
  • #14,372
  • Sep 4, 2014 5:44am Sep 4, 2014 5:44am
Quoting Mpt
​I reckon it's bearish, but do not be surprised if it doesn't move decisively to the downside for another 20 or so hours.
For me it is not bearish until we brake 153 ema on daily (currently 170.7) that would also mean braking monthly bullish bar.
  • #14,373
  • Edited 6:16am Sep 4, 2014 5:48am | Edited 6:16am
Quoting IndigoPingvi
{quote} For me it is not bearish until we brake 153 ema on daily (currently 170.7) that would also mean braking monthly bullish bar.
I was referring to a break under 170.4/3/2 - if it is to occur. The 170.7 will be in doubt until it happens.



We've apparently got some resistance in the 172.6/7 area and at 172.4 is the bottom of the "cloud" resistance/support. At 172.4 is the monthly pivot and the weekly is at 170.3. The daily support (gann) is at 170.2. These all make up for a difficult area to get below - and normally a bounce from the monthly/weekly pivot would sustain a large bounce. If price is constrained, then it goes sideways instead. But if the 172.7/8 ish area beaks, then, sure, it heads back on up.
  • #14,374
  • Edited 8:15am Sep 4, 2014 7:24am | Edited 8:15am
Three days ago at 173.9, price rejected from the weekly gann. GJ now sits above the daily gann, having had a rejection from 172.2. The monthly gann is below us and is rising through 169
  • #14,375
  • Sep 4, 2014 11:26am Sep 4, 2014 11:26am
If it closes at 172.5 we still have chances for Bull continuation... But GU is stubborn...
  • #14,376
  • Edited 1:24am Sep 5, 2014 12:50am | Edited 1:24am
Quoting IndigoPingvi
If it closes at 172.5 we still have chances for Bull continuation... But GU is stubborn...
Yes, a move back over 172.5 would, in spite of its bearish look, suggest that this was a correction in a bullish configuration. Same goes for Cable - (retest the exact level of its possible triangle breakout point at 1.63 last November ) .

For what it's worth, and ONLY based on that theory ( the bottom pattern on the 1 hr gives a hint as well), I went long at 171.8. I'll close if it drops back under .8, as another move under 171.7 (61.8 retracement) gives a quite different outcome.
  • #14,377
  • Sep 5, 2014 1:15am Sep 5, 2014 1:15am
Quoting workingforex
{quote} No offence please but would you mind me asking the rationale for that.
1. Unrest in Ukraine and Middle East will increase demand for the safest assets.
2. Once we break 170 the next floor is @ 165.
3. The bond market is always right. Difference between 2 yr yields in the US and Germany expanded to 62 basis points, that's the widest since April 2007. when you factor in the US Fed's next move is not easing rates but raising rates. Institutions will have to adjust their portfolios eventually to Interest rate changes. ( this tends to be violent after consolidations)
Last but not the least Futures contract traders are betting that interest rates will rise in Q1 2015 ...the possibility of the market pricing this in is higher than normal.
Of course this are just probabilities as the market does whatever it wants.
  • #14,378
  • Sep 5, 2014 1:25am Sep 5, 2014 1:25am
Quoting IveGotQuads
With volatility back in the market, a profit target of 171.68 is very feasible ... I will be adding to my short position at 172.30 using my initial risk and moving SL. I like the risk reward here especially with both technical and fundamentals aligning
I hit my profit target of 171.68 after my 3 sell orders @ 172.63 , 172.30 and 172.00 Friday trades I like to be very cautious and will not try to risk this weeks profit with out ample reason. Right now there is some consolidation between 171.93 and 171.67 ....I will be waiting for the break and only trade it after the break/pull back continuation pattern. No aggressive entries and will close trade at 12pm eastern time no matter where price is... happy pips to everyone. Hopefully there is an opportunity in the next 3 hrs
  • #14,379
  • Sep 5, 2014 1:35am Sep 5, 2014 1:35am
Quoting IveGotQuads
{quote} I hit my profit target of 171.68 after my 3 sell orders @ 172.63 , 172.30 and 172.00 Friday trades I like to be very cautious and will not try to risk this weeks profit with out ample reason. Right now there is some consolidation between 171.93 and 171.67 ....I will be waiting for the break and only trade it after the break/pull back continuation pattern. No aggressive entries and will close trade at 12pm eastern time no matter where price is... happy pips to everyone. Hopefully there is an opportunity in the next 3 hrs
I closed at the same place. Now we wait. Have a good weekend (mine's almost about to start)
  • #14,380
  • Sep 5, 2014 2:00am Sep 5, 2014 2:00am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} I closed at the same place. Now we wait. Have a good weekend (mine's almost about to start)
congrats on the pips .... well seems we've gotten our break and a pull back. placed a buy order @ 172.03 with SL @ 171.88 and Target at 172.50 nice 3 to 1 RR. Good weekend to everyone, cheers !!!
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