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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #14,341
  • Edited 7:54pm Sep 1, 2014 7:20pm | Edited 7:54pm
My immediate bearish argument falls over when it breaks about 173.45. As per this chart:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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In fact, above there it could become rather bullish
  • #14,342
  • Sep 2, 2014 12:14am Sep 2, 2014 12:14am
Price looks extremely bullish. To much bullish. It suppose to retrace some or at least consolidate in this area after suppose to be Bullish Flag...
Edit: actually, I forgot how to calculate 'Flag' predictions. If there is 200 pips from the bottom of the Flag to the top of the Flag, then we are still missing 50 pip move up.
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  • #14,343
  • Sep 2, 2014 12:44am Sep 2, 2014 12:44am
Quoting IndigoPingvi
Price looks extremely bullish. To much bullish. It suppose to retrace some or at least consolidate in this area after suppose to be Bullish Flag... Edit: actually, I forgot how to calculate 'Flag' predictions. If there is 200 pips from the bottom of the Flag to the top of the Flag, then we are still missing 50 pip move up. {image}
Yes, if it can clear the 173.9 area ... and UJ can clear 104.9 we possibly have a run back to the top. But right here is probably the final obstacle before the 174.3 and .7/ .9 areas.

Re the distances stuff, if it is a correction, then often the flag part could have equal lengths above it and below. The first move was about 225 pips and since jumping from 170.7, we've travelled the exact same distance. If the multiplier is 1.618 instead, that equates to 364 pips ------------ or 175.4
  • #14,344
  • Sep 2, 2014 1:00am Sep 2, 2014 1:00am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Yes, if it can clear the 173.9 area ... and UJ can clear 104.9 we possibly have a run back to the top. But right here is probably the final obstacle before the 174.3 and .7/ .9 areas. Re the distances stuff, if it is a correction, then often the flag part could have equal lengths above it and below. The first move was about 225 pips and since jumping from 170.7, we've travelled the exact same distance. If the multiplier is 1.618 instead, that equates to 364 pips ------------ or 175.4
Thanks for clarification. I calculated it wrongly then. 170.7 to 172.7 200 pips, then I calculated from the North brake of the flag (172.4 + 200 pips = 174.4) so actually calculation needs to be done from the bottom of the South brake of the flag (cca 171.7)
  • #14,345
  • Sep 2, 2014 1:08am Sep 2, 2014 1:08am
Quoting IndigoPingvi
{quote} Thanks for clarification. I calculated it wrongly then. 170.7 to 172.7 200 pips, then I calculated from the North brake of the flag (172.4 + 200 pips = 174.4) so actually calculation needs to be done from the bottom of the South brake of the flag (cca 171.7)
yep
  • #14,346
  • Sep 2, 2014 11:13pm Sep 2, 2014 11:13pm
This is what i m seeing on GJ daily chart, rectangle in chart has been good selling area(173.44 - 172. 8x) for quite a while in past several months , i will be interested to sell if the price goes below 172.7x
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,347
  • Sep 3, 2014 1:35am Sep 3, 2014 1:35am
Quoting ssaqeel
This is what i m seeing on GJ daily chart, rectangle in chart has been good selling area(173.44 - 172. 8x) for quite a while in past several months , i will be interested to sell if the price goes below 172.7x {image}
That's an interesting possibility. It's about to do something for sure. It seems to be closing in on the support on the 4H chart. The coming news will likely hit somewhere around that level. If the news is strong bullish, It could very well push it back up for a bit. Possibly back to 173.5ish territory. If it's bearish, it could signal a continued drop. As far as trending bearish, that I figure will be indicated by the upcoming BOJ releases. If the services PMI is weak, and the BOJ news is unexpectedly strong, then we're going to see a movement that will push below 170.500 for sure. A strong possibility to the area you're predicting, with an outside chance of a stretch goal at 168.000 set back in March.
  • #14,348
  • Sep 3, 2014 1:49am Sep 3, 2014 1:49am
Break of 172.6/7 takes it next to 172.3/4. Under there, 172.2 and a break there back to the bottom around 170.6.

But the lower levels are contingent upon getting to and under 172.3/4, as any decent bounce from 172.6 ( and over 173) could send it back to the top.
  • #14,349
  • Edited 4:34am Sep 3, 2014 4:20am | Edited 4:34am
The Monday break over 172.6/7 is obviously a big deal. If the week can now fall below, it's f-ing bearish. Only looking at candles, there are potential reversals galore
  • #14,350
  • Sep 3, 2014 6:25am Sep 3, 2014 6:25am
Yesterday was a Daily Bearish pin, mainly due to GBP weakness, other JPY pairs went up nicely. If those pairs will go into significant retrace then GJ will fall to at least 172. But for now 172.7 seems to be holding... If we finish W at 172.9 that would be a W Bearish pin and we'll still go down... I 'think' price will go up before NFP and NFP will decide the way for the next week.
  • #14,351
  • Sep 3, 2014 7:06am Sep 3, 2014 7:06am
Quoting IndigoPingvi
Yesterday was a Daily Bearish pin, mainly due to GBP weakness, other JPY pairs went up nicely. If those pairs will go into significant retrace then GJ will fall to at least 172. But for now 172.7 seems to be holding... If we finish W at 172.9 that would be a W Bearish pin and we'll still go down... I 'think' price will go up before NFP and NFP will decide the way for the next week.
Whatever happens, come NFP time you can bet that it will be sitting at an interesting place. I would like to see 'that place' as being 170.5. But you don't always get what you want.
  • #14,352
  • Sep 3, 2014 8:09am Sep 3, 2014 8:09am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Whatever happens, come NFP time you can bet that it will be sitting at an interesting place. I would like to see 'that place' as being 170.5. But you don't always get what you want.
Lately NFP is not such a mover as it used to be, but hey, everything is possible. Looks like GU found support, JPY pairs did some retrace, intraday momentum for GJ looking down, but support at 172.7 still holding. I would like to see it close at Daily at 173.25 area for 'possible' Bull continuation tomorrow...
  • #14,353
  • Sep 3, 2014 11:16am Sep 3, 2014 11:16am
Quoting IndigoPingvi
{quote} Lately NFP is not such a mover as it used to be, but hey, everything is possible. Looks like GU found support, JPY pairs did some retrace, intraday momentum for GJ looking down, but support at 172.7 still holding. I would like to see it close at Daily at 173.25 area for 'possible' Bull continuation tomorrow...
Yeah, GBP/JPY seems to be hovering about a support level. It seems to be a BUY at the moment IMO.
  • #14,354
  • Sep 3, 2014 12:38pm Sep 3, 2014 12:38pm
daily candle look scary to long
  • #14,355
  • Sep 3, 2014 3:10pm Sep 3, 2014 3:10pm
Quoting Didgeridoo
{quote} Yeah, GBP/JPY seems to be hovering about a support level. It seems to be a BUY at the moment IMO.
Tough call right now. New York market is coming to a close, so not much more movement will happen over the next few hours. Just waiting to see what happens with the BOJ later today. IMO, THAT will be the big indicator as to how things move.
Weak JPY news = A bullish turnaround
Neutral JPY news = a slow bearish drop, possibly hitting support somewhere around 171.9.
Good JPY news = Hell, let's just drop as far as we possibly can!

Although, the good news about the GBP earlier today apparently had no effect (actually, it seemed to have the opposite effect) on the currency value. So who knows? Maybe this week everything news related just goes straight to hell and nothing makes any semblance of sense anymore.
  • #14,356
  • Sep 4, 2014 2:52am Sep 4, 2014 2:52am
Soon will be the time for GJ to rise and shine!

I still see some downside till Sep 19th. As per my point of view, GJ has been holding back because of upcoming referendum but again it can be a risky event. I hope and wish we get a 'No' vote and then again we could see the bulls in action. Till then will be very cautious but as always I am long-term bull on GJ, would be good level to buy under 172.

Opinions ?
  • #14,357
  • Sep 4, 2014 2:57am Sep 4, 2014 2:57am
Quoting workingforex
Soon will be the time for GJ to rise and shine! I still see some downside till Sep 19th. As per my point of view, GJ has been holding back because of upcoming referendum but again it can be a risky event. I hope and wish we get a 'No' vote and then again we could see the bulls in action. Till then will be very cautious but as always I am long-term bull on GJ, would be good level to buy under 172. Opinions ?
So you feel they will keep GJ until after Sept. 19th, before we actually move higher? What's your Target?
  • #14,358
  • Sep 4, 2014 3:12am Sep 4, 2014 3:12am
Quoting workingforex
Soon will be the time for GJ to rise and shine! I still see some downside till Sep 19th. As per my point of view, GJ has been holding back because of upcoming referendum but again it can be a risky event. I hope and wish we get a 'No' vote and then again we could see the bulls in action. Till then will be very cautious but as always I am long-term bull on GJ, would be good level to buy under 172. Opinions ?

If you take a look at the Gbp/Usd daily charts you just might change your opinion. I have a sell order @ 172.63 and 172.05 for my intraday trade but theres an opportunity to stack on my profits.
  • #14,359
  • Sep 4, 2014 3:20am Sep 4, 2014 3:20am
With volatility back in the market, a profit target of 171.68 is very feasible ... I will be adding to my short position at 172.30 using my initial risk and moving SL. I like the risk reward here especially with both technical and fundamentals aligning
  • #14,360
  • Sep 4, 2014 3:24am Sep 4, 2014 3:24am
Going Long with TP 173.20/25..then short from there..
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