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Davit's Confluence Trading

  • #1,841
  • Sep 2, 2014 6:12am Sep 2, 2014 6:12am
Quoting KADC
{quote} I can understand China or Japan wanting to push USD higher. It's irksome, but it's understandable, and it least it's a constant pressure which gives the average trader time to react; unlike gold for example, where several of the drops in the past few weeks has been a huge dumps that take place in but a single market tick. As years go by, I'm finding I really prefer the "reality" based trading of non-US pairs that tend to react to one another with some degree of respect to the technicals and fundamentals. Stellar Aussie...
I'd have to dig rather far back in my posts to see how long I've been saying "I'm done with USD pairs!!" LOL And yet I still trade then darn things. Perhaps I need my head examined. The never end stream of fuzzy numbers, revisions and flat out lies is really too much anymore. Since I started trading I normally traded only 4 or 5 pairs. After about a year break and coming back in April, I've been watching about 21, trading a good portion of them and all to find replacements for the ones I started with. I'm still narrowing down the list but like you, it doesn't include many USD pairs.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #1,842
  • Sep 2, 2014 6:34am Sep 2, 2014 6:34am
Quoting albchr
{quote} I'd have to dig rather far back in my posts to see how long I've been saying "I'm done with USD pairs!!" LOL And yet I still trade then darn things. Perhaps I need my head examined. The never end stream of fuzzy numbers, revisions and flat out lies is really too much anymore. Since I started trading I normally traded only 4 or 5 pairs. After about a year break and coming back in April, I've been watching about 21, trading a good portion of them and all to find replacements for the ones I started with. I'm still narrowing down the list but...
I watch all USD-based pairs so I have a common point of reference for each currency's movement, but I don't think I've had more than a single USD-based trade on at any given time for quite a while now. I only actively watch a half-dozen pairs, trying to limit my choices to the strongest/weakest pairings, though I do make an effort to look at all the charts on a weekly and monthly basis to see what's nearing long-term support and resistance levels and swap in/out pairs as required. I may miss some trading opportunities, but it's an easier daily routine to deal with.

Similarly, with stocks, though I'd love to add dozens more to the portfolio, keeping it under 30 stocks (I had no luck limiting myself to 20 which was my initial plan) is very manageable, though I'm going to have to break that rule to pick up Tesla if it ever pulls back again (I couldn't decide on a stock I wanted to part with in May or August and RSI is oversold now so I'll wait even though it just broke a new high {sigh}).
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #1,843
  • Sep 2, 2014 7:02am Sep 2, 2014 7:02am
Quoting KADC
{quote} I watch all USD-based pairs so I have a common point of reference for each currency's movement, but I don't think I've had more than a single USD-based trade on at any given time for quite a while now. I only actively watch a half-dozen pairs, trying to limit my choices to the strongest/weakest pairings, though I do make an effort to look at all the charts on a weekly and monthly basis to see what's nearing long-term support and resistance levels and swap in/out pairs as required. I may miss some trading opportunities, but it's an easier...
Same here, you have to watch them. But once I'm out of my GU & UJ trades (now quite heavily under water ATM), I think I'm pretty much done with them. Just a small FOREX trader here. No stocks. Maybe some day but not yet. Anyway best wishes to you sir. I have to get moving here.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #1,844
  • Sep 2, 2014 9:27am Sep 2, 2014 9:27am
Quoting albchr
{quote} Same here, you have to watch them. But once I'm out of my GU & UJ trades (now quite heavily under water ATM), I think I'm pretty much done with them. Just a small FOREX trader here. No stocks. Maybe some day but not yet. Anyway best wishes to you sir. I have to get moving here.
Stocks are much easier investments to make than trading FOREX, and far less stressful. I highly recommend to anyone they should be investing in stocks for their retirement. Look at the financials for the past three years (are cash, sales, and earnings per share increasing), look at a long-term chart (multi-year), wait for a pullback to buy (pullback in RSI if not actual price), and relax knowing you've made a sound investment for years to come.

Bonus tip: If the stock didn't waver during the 2008 crash it'll likely survive the next one as well.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #1,845
  • Sep 2, 2014 9:46am Sep 2, 2014 9:46am
I did not know Kiwi milk was on the schedule today -- an unfortunate time to have added to my AUD/NZD short. From profit to loss in a matter of minutes -- and here I was celebrating my "wisdom" in avoiding USD pairs then wondering why USD PMI knocked the bottom out of the Kiwi. {sigh} To celebrate my loss, I'm going to have an actual kiwi and milk for breakfast, then bang my head against the wall for desert.

Positive Aussie data this week isn't going to do me any favours with AUD/NZD, but hopefully the EUR/AUD short I just entered at 1.415 will put September back in the black.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #1,846
  • Sep 2, 2014 10:41am Sep 2, 2014 10:41am
Quoting KADC
I did not know Kiwi milk was on the schedule today -- an unfortunate time to have added to my AUD/NZD short. From profit to loss in a matter of minutes -- and here I was celebrating my "wisdom" in avoiding USD pairs then wondering why USD PMI knocked the bottom out of the Kiwi. {sigh} To celebrate my loss, I'm going to have an actual kiwi and milk for breakfast, then bang my head against the wall for desert. Positive Aussie data this week isn't going to do me any favours with AUD/NZD, but hopefully the EUR/AUD short I just entered at 1.415 will...
Cut All my AN and CAD/JPY shorts
-820pips

Still running UJ red but getting close to cut this as well

New Trades EJ shorts and E/AUD shorts (joining you on this)
Euro is overreaching.Anticipate Draghi start rolling the QE 1.25 Euro is not out of reach.
Terrible trading by me of late.No excuses.
REgards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,847
  • Sep 2, 2014 11:26am Sep 2, 2014 11:26am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Cut All my AN and CAD/JPY shorts -820pips Still running UJ red but getting close to cut this as well New Trades EJ shorts and E/AUD shorts (joining you on this) Euro is overreaching.Anticipate Draghi start rolling the QE 1.25 Euro is not out of reach. Terrible trading by me of late.No excuses. REgards
I'm still holding my AUD/NZD short while it remains below the 78.6% of the move down from 1.119 -- after all, we could get bad Aussie data this week.

As far as bad trading, it's been rough couple of weeks for me as well. I still find myself sometimes treating my FOREX trading like stocks, and holding onto trades where I believe in the fundamentals despite contrary price action. Strong Aussie data not translating into positive Aussie currency moves is a prime example.

With regard to EUR/USD, I think Draghi, known more for talking the talk than walking the walk, may say that they need time to evaluate the effect of an 8% currency depreciation in only four months before the ECB can give firm guidance for an easing program which will leave the Euro bears scrambling. 1.30 looks like where I'd want to see a reversal/bounce -- it's previous support, a strong psychological level, and the 50% retracement of the move up from 2012. I'm not married to that number as a target -- in fact, we're sitting on top of viable support now -- but I'll wait until I see an appropriate market reaction before placing another Euro trade. I do think there's good odds that 1.30 (maybe a spike down to 1.2985 or 1.2975) will be the bottom for the time being though, particularly after an unprecedented seven week run ...though I remind myself that the Yen fell longer and farther than that in 2012-2013 and waiting for the pullback there just left me waiting.


EUR/USD weekly
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You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #1,848
  • Sep 2, 2014 9:56pm Sep 2, 2014 9:56pm
What is one supposed to do with better-than-expected Aussie GDP that sees an immediate suppression of currency gains and a loss to the Kiwi which, Australia being New Zealand's closest trading partner, should also benefit (other than AUD/NZD)? I understand in geopolitical, economic, and pure greed terms why USD is being artificially bolstered, but I don't see the advantage to preventing gains to the Aussie and Kiwi individually.

Anyway, the net result an hour later appears to be the all-too-common situation of resetting to zero so I'll keep holding the only trades I have in play at the moment (long gold, short EUR/AUD & AUD/NZD and all just fractionally negative) and go back to bed, but I still long for the days when honest traders could profit alongside the manipulators by everyone turning a blind eye and pretending the fudged economic data was real.

Overall, with the just plain silly manipulated loss to the Pound yesterday so it could catch up with the other currencies, I have little doubt that we're seeing a concerted effort to push a very large financial ball deep under water and I'll be very surprised if they don't let it go on Thursday to see how high it will shoot up. I may even break one of my cardinal rules and open new trades prior to the North American session to take advantage (or suffer the consequences) of my prediction, because it's the perfect setup for the vampire squid, with first Draghi disappointing the Euro bears with no firm plans for easing as a catalyst to reverse USD gains across the board followed by four subsequent FOMC members set to speak individually later in the day to massage the results should things get too far out of hand.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #1,849
  • Sep 3, 2014 9:09pm Sep 3, 2014 9:09pm
[quote=Davit;7715492]Short AN at 1230 2x I think Aussie is running out of steam[/quote
Redirected from your BB thread since this isn't using your BB analysis.


At 1.1190 (1.11875 on NetDania charts) I was confident we'd return to test 1.1045 from the topside before continuing upward, particularly when RSI turned down as "confirmation", but my dollar-for-dollar AUD/NZD short losses against my EUR/AUD short gains have proved how wrong I was about that. I hope you're right about it turning around now because once we breached 1.1045 my long play from June 5th (the "pullback" for which obviously extending WAY past my preferred entry point) is now back in play.

At this point I'll be happy to exit my short at 1.1190 which will leave me with some of my EUR/AUD profit and re-evaluate whether to go long from there or wait for 1.105 to target the 78.6% retracement from the November 2013 high at 1.135.

AUD/NZD daily
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You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #1,850
  • Edited 10:11pm Sep 3, 2014 9:41pm | Edited 10:11pm
EUR/AUD has returned to the 100% retracement from the November 2013 low for the second time, which either confirms a double-bottom or eminent continuation. I am still holding my EUR/AUD short after positive Aussie trade balance figures. A break below 1.404 targets ~1.395, though 1.4005 is the 27.8% extension of the bounce from the last two days which would be my initial target on a breach of support.

Update: Exited the trade when hourly AUD/USD RSI broke support and EUR/USD hourly RSI bounced from support despite EUR/AUD hourly RSI being right at support. Possibly premature but one should never regret booking profit. I will re-evaluate at 2:00 a.m. EST after German factory orders.

Addendum: Ugh -- EUR/AUD stopped at precisely 1.407, the daily close and I can see on the 5-minute chart that's short-term support/resistance and where I should have placed my stop. I've seldom turned a profit from second-guessing but I've placed a new short entry there with a very tight stop for peace of mind.

EUR/AUD 8-hour
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You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #1,851
  • Sep 3, 2014 10:27pm Sep 3, 2014 10:27pm
[quote=KADC;7715569]
Quoting Davit
Short AN at 1230 2x I think Aussie is running out of steam[/quote
Quoting Davit
Redirected from your BB thread since this isn't using your BB analysis. At 1.1190 (1.11875 on NetDania charts) I was confident we'd return to test 1.1045 from the topside before continuing upward, particularly when RSI turned down as "confirmation", but my dollar-for-dollar AUD/NZD short losses against my EUR/AUD short gains have proved how wrong I was about that. I hope you're right about it turning around now because once we breached 1.1045 my long play from June 5th (the...
Hi KADC
I did take substantial loss on AN earlier shorts and getting in at much higher price now.
Could work since pair hit yearly high R 2013
Either this pair smashes up and keeps going North or goes minimum 150pip correction.
Fundamentally I don't see Aussie that strong yet.
Regards
By the way you can post on my BB thread.Don't have to use same system
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,852
  • Sep 3, 2014 10:50pm Sep 3, 2014 10:50pm
[quote=Davit;7715653]
Quoting KADC
{quote}{quote} Hi KADC I did take substantial loss on AN earlier shorts and getting in at much higher price now. Could work since pair hit yearly high R 2013 Either this pair smashes up and keeps going North or goes minimum 150pip correction. Fundamentally I don't see Aussie that strong yet. Regards By the way you can post on my BB thread.Don't have to use same system {image}
After AUD/USD reached the 27.8% extension, a retest of 0.84 is certainly reasonable. The same can't be said of the Aussie from a technical point of view which enhances my belief in AUD/NZD weakness. The RBNZ Next Wednesday should give us a better take on direction for the Kiwi for the coming month.


NZD/USD daily
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You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #1,853
  • Sep 10, 2014 5:54am Sep 10, 2014 5:54am
The NZD/USD hit my target from the prior post (and a bit more) then reversed (it was a USD steamroller across the board the last few days), but I held my AUD/NZD short (still holding) and I got back all my previous losses and then some.

New trade entry is the CAD/JPY short. Price has hit the descending trend line from the 2013 high and the 27.2% Fibonacci extension from the June-August swing down which was itself a 27.2% extension of the March move up (not shown). RSI has also hit the same level as the point of the prior reversal.

CAD/JPY daily

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You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #1,854
  • Sep 10, 2014 6:04am Sep 10, 2014 6:04am
Quoting KADC
The NZD/USD hit my target from the prior post (and a bit more) then reversed (it was a USD steamroller across the board the last few days), but I held my AUD/NZD short (still holding) and I got back all my previous losses and then some. New trade entry is the CAD/JPY short. Price has hit the descending trend line from the 2013 high and the 27.2% Fibonacci extension from the June-August swing down which was itself a 27.2% extension of the March move up (not shown). RSI has also hit the same level as the point of the prior reversal. CAD/JPY daily...
Good morning KADC, Have to admit a lot of confluence at this point. I'd like to see it stretch to the 161.8 @ 97.502 (lower TF reasons) and bounce. But I agree it's good area to watch here. Wish I could hang around today but must be running now. Best wishes to you sir.

Weekly chart.
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Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #1,855
  • Edited 6:47am Sep 10, 2014 6:08am | Edited 6:47am
USD Index has nearly hit the 78.6% Fibonacci of the 2013 swing down and the 27.2% extension of the Oct-Jan swing up. RSI is near the level of previous reversal. With no new fundamental factors driving USD strength unless continued stock market losses create a flight-to-safety, I think this is where the U.S. dollar reverses.

addendum: USD pairs have not yet reached my USD-strength targets so there's still some room to move higher.

USD Index weekly
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You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #1,856
  • Edited 6:24am Sep 10, 2014 6:14am | Edited 6:24am
Cable (bizarrely) reversed nearly a full 100 pip move down when the latest poll favouring Scottish independence was released. I could find no news supporting the move up (and it would have to be fantastic news) so I believe that is a selling opportunity as the threat of Scottish independence certainly works against the Pound.

addendum: Shorting opportunity is dependent on USD first probing the confluent level for a retest as opposed to reacting strongly and reversing. Also, should the US stock market (S&P and Dow both need a gain today) succumb to a panic sell-off would similarly not be ideal for Pound selling.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #1,857
  • Sep 12, 2014 10:19am Sep 12, 2014 10:19am
Does anyone actively maintain a stock portfolio or is everyone here strictly FOREX traders? In case any of you are interested, Alibaba's (BABA) IPO is September 19th.

Alibaba is the world's largest online retailer, based out of China and currently twice the size of Amazon, just entering the North American market (currently invitation only, presumably a controlled betatest). The have an eBay style delivery system (i.e. they don't fulfill orders themselves which gives them a better than 50% profit margin compared to Amazon's 1%). Their initial valuation is twice that of Facebook, and unlike Facebook (or eBay, Twitter, etc.) they are already a profitable company, plus they are starting out with access to the Chinese market, something their competitors lack.

Amazon stock has been declining since the Alibaba IPO date was announced (doesn't help that they downgraded their earning forecasts). Yahoo! owns a 25% stake in Alibaba and will be selling off 9% after the IPO. Yahoo! stock has risen steadily, gaining 22% so far since the release of this news.

I don't day-trade the stock market; I'm selling my Amazon stock and buying Yahoo! (and hopefully I can get Alibaba stock at a reasonable price) because Yahoo!'s September to April seasonality is a better fit with my investment portfolio.

Back to FOREX, I'm still holding my AUD/NZD short -- I believe it will at least retest 1.1050. Hopefully I'm not just being greedy by not getting out at 1.10625 but AUD/USD looks like it will end the week with a massive bearish candle and is probably heading for the 23.6% retracement at 0.892 having broken through the 36.2% at 0.9080 though minor monthly trend line is sitting at 0.900. Whereas the NZD/USD is still above the 61.8% at 0.8125 where I think it will bounce before continuing to the monthly trend line dating back to 2004 (green) near the 78.6% retracement. This gives the Aussie greater immediate downside than the Kiwi in my opinion.

In contrast, I am taking a huge loss in EUR/AUD. I thought it would resume its decline from 1.4125 after what I thought was a bounce from where I booked profit at 1.4010. Certainly the Aussie is not in a worse position than the Euro and though the Aussie jobs numbers turned out to be part-time jobs, they are still jobs, yet the market reacting like that was worse than if they'd been job losses. I was waiting for a pullback to get out yet it's still going up, having now cleared the well-defined channel it's been in since February. I presume it will retest the top of the channel as soon as the Euro makes it's next move down which I rather thought would be today after six days of consolidation. 1.4335 is the 78.6% of the August-September move where I'll add to my short with a tight stop on the assumption this will be wave top. ...there's certainly no fundamental reason for it to continue higher at the moment that I'm aware of which is why I have stubbornly (stupidly) held onto my largest single-trade loss of the year.


AUD/USD weekly
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NZD/USD weekly
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You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #1,858
  • Sep 12, 2014 12:05pm Sep 12, 2014 12:05pm
Hello all.. long time I didn't post here. I was looking for something different than the spot and found a good place: it is Nadex. It is an exchange (the same group of NYMEX and COMEX) for retail traders, who offer binary and spread options. I have been testing with real ($500), and believe me, after 60 trades of only "spread" (losers & winners) the money doesn't disappear so easy like in the spot. Even when you are wrong in the direction you can get some money back because are options. Well you can give it a try with their demo. Youtube has videos about it. Because it's cash, we don't need extra money for margin, of course they charge commissions. Just check it out..
Swing with the tide, Surf with the waves!
  • #1,859
  • Oct 29, 2014 12:04pm Oct 29, 2014 12:04pm
Hello guys
Took much needed break from posting and overall forum involvement.
I don't know if this is related but Oct proved to be my best month ever.
Made 2840 pips 30% account growth

Interestingly vast majority of it was trading U/Cad on short side
I looked at my detail report and not a single long trade hence resign myself that I am just counter trader and good at that as my strength.
Things that I noticed when quieted my head from forums.Market has rhythm and it moves up and down depending on news releases.Noticed on US open market likes to achieve certain distance and sentiment for direction is often not clear until 10-11am.
Anyway.All the pips were achieved based on naked chart and some visual levels.
regards to all
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,860
  • Oct 29, 2014 12:12pm Oct 29, 2014 12:12pm
Quoting Davit
Hello guys Took much needed break from posting and overall forum involvement. I don't know if this is related but Oct proved to be my best month ever. Made 2840 pips 30% account growth
Awesome Davit! finally, welcome back
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