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Elliott Wave Trading

  • #6,941
  • Sep 3, 2014 2:15am Sep 3, 2014 2:15am
HI guys

Am learning about wave principle, just started tho, very much interested , thanks
I Have Learned to Take Some Losses to Make Profits
  • #6,942
  • Sep 3, 2014 3:30am Sep 3, 2014 3:30am
Quoting skyhok
Present impulse wave count on GBPUSD shows this pair has the ability to go full stretch on Fibonacci Ratio. When wave (iii) is nearly equal but slightly longer than wave (i), this count is intact and wave (5) will probably reach 161% x 0-(iii) or more, with the Fib ratios TP clustered under 1.6220. {image}
I think you'll find this is a corrective structure... but not yet complete.
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #6,943
  • Sep 3, 2014 10:13am Sep 3, 2014 10:13am
An even better alternate impulse wave count of GBPUSD.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH1 11.png Size: 47 KB
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #6,944
  • Sep 8, 2014 7:25am Sep 8, 2014 7:25am
Quoting skyhok
An even better alternate impulse wave count of GBPUSD. {image}
I don't know if the numbering is correct, the wave [ii] is lower duration than wave [i], but you're right that we have dealing with an impulse (is the impulse 1 from the wave c - flat with strong b wave), as you wrote. I wonder how you numbered the wave-1 that is not yet completed, from the c wave at Eur-Usd.
  • #6,945
  • Sep 10, 2014 12:00am Sep 10, 2014 12:00am
Quoting skyhok
By alternation, AUSUSD has probably developed a year long wave (4) complex correction, as compare to the simple wave (2). This recoiling (distribution) effect would set stage for a prolonged (or extended) 5th wave down in completing larger wave C, when that correlates to present aussie fundamentals. The question is: Is wave (4) completed? {image}
AUDUSD breaks out to the downside almost confirm the completion of wave (4) correction which will be retraced quickly and thus confirm the long term count that it is in wave (5) of a larger C wave down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDDaily 09.png Size: 58 KB
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #6,946
  • Edited 2:34am Sep 10, 2014 2:09am | Edited 2:34am
Quoting ovidiu_gnt
{quote} I don't know if the numbering is correct, the wave [ii] is lower duration than wave [i], but you're right that we have dealing with an impulse (is the impulse 1 from the wave c - flat with strong b wave), as you wrote. I wonder how you numbered the wave-1 that is not yet completed, from the c wave at Eur-Usd.
Hi mate, thanks for picking up on the numbering , I've been paying too much attention on the TP of EURUSD. We're working together, aren't we?
Here's the update on EURUSD's last strive getting into the zone of target clusters before the correction. Could be anyone of those or further down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM30 10.png Size: 49 KB
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  • #6,947
  • Edited 4:06am Sep 10, 2014 3:29am | Edited 4:06am
Quoting skyhok
{quote} Hi mate, thanks for picking up on the numbering , I've been paying too much attention on the TP of EURUSD. We're working together, aren't we? Here's the update on EURUSD's last strive getting into the zone of target clusters before the correction. Could be anyone of those or further down. {image}
Hi,
I think, that the downtrend from Eur-Usd is finished for the moment and began the correction. This is wave-1 from c wave, in a flat with strong b. The numbering not differ much, but if we look at the details, explains why to you, the wave is not completed. If I have right (wave-1 finished), is possible that wave-1 to be the extended wave and the correction (wave-2) to retrace wave-1 until 38.2%. In my opinion, the current movement will exceed 1,3160. Let's collaborate!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Eur-Usd - H4 - 10.09.2014.jpg Size: 336 KB
  • #6,948
  • Sep 10, 2014 4:53am Sep 10, 2014 4:53am
Quoting ovidiu_gnt
{quote} Hi, I think, that the downtrend from Eur-Usd is finished for the moment and began the correction. This is wave-1 from c wave, in a flat with strong b. The numbering not differ much, but if we look at the details, explains why to you, the wave is not completed. If I have right (wave-1 finished), is possible that wave-1 to be the extended wave and the correction (wave-2) to retrace wave-1 until 38.2%. In my opinion, the current movement will exceed 1,3160. Let's collaborate! {image}
Just a quick question... How do you guys handle alternation?
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #6,949
  • Sep 10, 2014 5:23am Sep 10, 2014 5:23am
Quoting Ian Copsey
{quote} Just a quick question... How do you guys handle alternation?
I don't understand the question. Please more details.
  • #6,950
  • Sep 10, 2014 5:59am Sep 10, 2014 5:59am
Quoting Ian Copsey
{quote} Just a quick question... How do you guys handle alternation?
If you refer to alternating waves of an impulse, here is talking about the waves of 2 and 4, it is very simple. In general the wave 2 is a flat or double tree and wave 4 may be triangle or other flat (very rarely happens to have the same kind of flat as wave 2 and 4 in the same impulse).
  • #6,951
  • Sep 10, 2014 6:45am Sep 10, 2014 6:45am
Quoting ovidiu_gnt
{quote} If you refer to alternating waves of an impulse, here is talking about the waves of 2 and 4, it is very simple. In general the wave 2 is a flat or double tree and wave 4 may be triangle or other flat (very rarely happens to have the same kind of flat as wave 2 and 4 in the same impulse).
Yes, it's between Wave 2 and Wave 4...

However, your definition is incorrect. Elliott himself stated that he saw alternation had two qualities:

1. If Wave 2 is simple (zz, double zz, triple zz) then Wave 4 will be complex (Flat, expanded flat, triangle - ie. all those that begin with a 3-wave Wave A.) and vice versa.

2. Elliott also spoke of depth between the Wave 2 and Wave 4. If Wave 2 was shallow then Wave 4 would be deep ... and vice versa.

The GBPUSD count and EURUSD counts have both 2's and 4's as complex and no relationship in depth. To be honest, in traditional EW the depth relationship will rarely occur - if ever... It happens probably 95% of the time in HEW and makes Wave 4 the easiest of all waves to forecast.

That's why I suggested that the GBPUSD count is corrective - because the alternation was just not there... every correction was relatively shallow and that implies a triple three. It's a really useful tool to use and look out for. Plus, I don't think we've seen the final daily high in GBPUSD yet.
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #6,952
  • Sep 10, 2014 7:07am Sep 10, 2014 7:07am
Quoting Ian Copsey
{quote} Yes, it's between Wave 2 and Wave 4... However, your definition is incorrect. Elliott himself stated that he saw alternation had two qualities: 1. If Wave 2 is simple (zz, double zz, triple zz) then Wave 4 will be complex (Flat, expanded flat, triangle - ie. all those that begin with a 3-wave Wave A.) and vice versa. 2. Elliott also spoke of depth between the Wave 2 and Wave 4. If Wave 2 was shallow then Wave 4 would be deep ... and vice versa. The GBPUSD count and EURUSD counts have both 2's and 4's as complex and no relationship in depth....
Sorry Ian, because I have not written in detail, but here's how it looks on the Gbp-Usd chart in my opinion and maybe you'll change your mind regarding the high.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP-USD Daily - 10.09.2014.jpg Size: 334 KB
  • #6,953
  • Sep 10, 2014 7:30am Sep 10, 2014 7:30am
Quoting ovidiu_gnt
{quote} Sorry Ian, because I have not written in detail, but here's how it looks on the Gbp-Usd chart in my opinion and maybe you'll change your mind regarding the high. {image}
Well, firstly you have both Wave 2 and Wave 4 as complex so that's blown Elliott's observations... You probably know that I don't consider the running corrections as valid - but of course, that's just my view.

Secondly, you know I don't look at traditional EW so I'll say no more on that! I had my count, was surprised with one element of it but the way it has developed has been pretty good, solid ratios and I have the 1.7190 high as the Wave -iii- (12 points below target - though when this rally started I didn't think it would get that high...) The Wave -iv- is able to absorb up to the 58.6% retracement and satisfy alternation. (Alternation is present all the way up in the lower degree 5-wave moves...)

Actually, I almost have the same Wave 1 and 2 as you - except the Wave b you have is my Wave 1 (of course!) That made the 1.7190 high a 338.2% projection. Wave -ii- was 53% so alternation could absorb 50%-58.6%... and as I mentioned, the decline from 1.7190 has NO deep enough Wave 4 to get anywhere close to satisfying alternation.

Please, I don't mean this to be awkward, but more of a tip that can help you in future.
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #6,954
  • Sep 10, 2014 7:52am Sep 10, 2014 7:52am
Quoting ovidiu_gnt
{quote} Sorry Ian, because I have not written in detail, but here's how it looks on the Gbp-Usd chart in my opinion and maybe you'll change your mind regarding the high. {image}
Apologies, BTW, I was talking about the GBPUSD decline that Skyhok posted and you agreed with - plus the running corrections lower in your EURUSD decline with multiple Wave 2/4 complex corrections...
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #6,955
  • Sep 10, 2014 8:04am Sep 10, 2014 8:04am
Quoting ovidiu_gnt
{quote} Hi, I think, that the downtrend from Eur-Usd is finished for the moment and began the correction. This is wave-1 from c wave, in a flat with strong b. The numbering not differ much, but if we look at the details, explains why to you, the wave is not completed. If I have right (wave-1 finished), is possible that wave-1 to be the extended wave and the correction (wave-2) to retrace wave-1 until 38.2%. In my opinion, the current movement will exceed 1,3160. Let's collaborate! {image}
You could be right, ovidiu_gnt, that EURUSD could retrace exceeding 1.3160 in the upcoming correction. However, this pair has some unfinished business further down south, firstly retracing the correction formed last 5 days (as all corrections will be traced), then complete this final wave (v).
And I'm with the market.
Interesting to note that non EW trader recognized the advance in the last 24 hours as a "bull trap" while EW trader see it as a wave c of the correction.
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #6,956
  • Sep 10, 2014 6:40pm Sep 10, 2014 6:40pm
this some of my last charts , i had long time i hadn't post anywhere , so i'd like to post here
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd-h4-alpari-uk-ltd-temp-file-screenshot-2769-png.png Size: 30 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd-d1-alpari-uk-ltd-temp-file-screenshot-51066-png.png Size: 33 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy-h12-alpari-uk-ltd-temp-file-screenshot-60644-png.png Size: 31 KB
  • #6,957
  • Sep 12, 2014 6:19am Sep 12, 2014 6:19am
Quoting Ian Copsey
{quote} Just a quick question... How do you guys handle alternation?
That's a good question. Always work with alternation between wave 2 and 4.
At first I thought you mean - winning heaps one day and losing the lot the next - that type of alternation.............. Just joking.
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  • #6,958
  • Sep 12, 2014 5:43pm Sep 12, 2014 5:43pm
Dear Ian Copsey
About your question if you are asking where the alternation happen mostly , i will telll you that the alternation mostly happen between the wave 2 and wave 4 , but make attention that this is only in the impulsive wave so in the wave C of flat & zigzag , it's less happen especially in the flat
Best Regards
  • #6,959
  • Sep 12, 2014 7:11pm Sep 12, 2014 7:11pm
Quoting WaylDz
Dear Ian Copsey About your question if you are asking where the alternation happen mostly , i will telll you that the alternation mostly happen between the wave 2 and wave 4 , but make attention that this is only in the impulsive wave so in the wave C of flat & zigzag , it's less happen especially in the flat Best Regards
WayIDz

I'm very aware of what alternation is! It is a core tool in my analysis. If you read my reply to ovidiu_gnt you'll see my explanation... It occurs in 95% of Wave (a) and Wave (c)'s (which are the only impulsive sequences) Not only that, but the ratios of Wave 2 and Wave 4 are related which is why Wave 4 is normally the easiest wave to forecast with accuracy. Not only that, the depth (as a ratio) can be identified as soon as Wave 2 is confirmed.
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #6,960
  • Edited 9:48pm Sep 12, 2014 9:38pm | Edited 9:48pm
Quoting WaylDz
this some of my last charts , i had long time i hadn't post anywhere , so i'd like to post here {image} {image} {image}
Thank you for your charts, WaylDz, much appreciated as ..................... a picture tells a thousand words.
I might not agree with some of the counts but alternate counts helps in looking at the market in a wider picture and in final decisions.
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
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