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  • Post #181
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  • Sep 3, 2014 8:33am Sep 3, 2014 8:33am
  •  Egarcia74
  • | Joined May 2011 | Status: Egarcia74 | 58 Posts
very nice Artist, count with me
 
 
  • Post #182
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  • Sep 3, 2014 11:00am Sep 3, 2014 11:00am
  •  Pips200
  • | Joined Jul 2014 | Status: Member | 524 Posts
close GC + 73 pips
 
 
  • Post #183
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  • Sep 3, 2014 4:28pm Sep 3, 2014 4:28pm
  •  babalame
  • | Joined Feb 2013 | Status: know the rules of the game | 33 Posts
Quoting fartist
Disliked
Pinbar & Engulfing The significance of these 2 candlestick patterns is rejection of prices. For the benefit of those who don't know what they look like, here is a textbook example. Bearish Engulfing {image} Bullish Engulfing {image} Bearish & Bullish Pinbar {image} Using these patterns in isolation can be misleading and i will explain why in the next post. These patterns are best used in conjunction with the trend and SR as they may pin point potential reversal. Moving on.. Fartist
Ignored
right on point fartist, this patterns in context and in the right place within a trend is very powerful ie looking for them in/on support/ demand in an up trend and resistance/supply in a down trend, i call then pivot reversal points. all this will also be in context of a defined higher time frame support and resistance. i think this thread will be very helpful to a lot of people including me to share ideas and more, looking forward to more from you fartist
All market movement are as a result of supply and demand
 
 
  • Post #184
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  • Sep 4, 2014 4:50am Sep 4, 2014 4:50am
  •  fartist
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Sep 2010 | 933 Posts
Danger of Pinbar

In my previous post i mention that trading a Pinbar in isolation can be misleading.

In my early days of trading i get very excited when i spot a bullish Pinbar. I could hear the voices in my head saying 'IT"S GOING UP!'

Well sadly more often than not it went against me and stopped me out of my trades.

That is because i was simply trading the Pinbar in isolation, which meant that i am trading against the trend on a lower timeframe.

Here are some charts to illustrate my point

On the daily chart we have a typical bullish Pinbar that get traders excited..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: bullish pinbar failed.png
Size: 35 KB


And on the 4 hour chart there doesn't seem to be anything bullish about it..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: simple pullback.png
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Can you see it now?

A Pinbar is simply a pullback on the lower timeframe. And by going long at the open of the next candle, chances are you are trading into resistance on the lower timeframe.

My point is never trade candlestick patterns in isolation.

In my next post I will discuss how i would trade the Pinbar & Engulfing Setups.

Fartist
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
 
 
  • Post #185
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  • Sep 4, 2014 9:21am Sep 4, 2014 9:21am
  •  babalame
  • | Joined Feb 2013 | Status: know the rules of the game | 33 Posts
Quoting fartist
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Danger of Pinbar In my previous post i mention that trading a Pinbar in isolation can be misleading. In my early days of trading i get very excited when i spot a bullish Pinbar. I could hear the voices in my head saying 'IT"S GOING UP!' Well sadly more often than not it went against me and stopped me out of my trades. That is because i was simply trading the Pinbar in isolation, which meant that i am trading against the trend on a lower timeframe. Here are some charts to illustrate my point On the daily chart we have a typical bullish Pinbar that...
Ignored
you hit the nail on the head fartist nice and easy explanation
All market movement are as a result of supply and demand
 
 
  • Post #186
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  • Sep 4, 2014 7:47pm Sep 4, 2014 7:47pm
  •  Callum
  • | Joined Sep 2012 | Status: Member | 213 Posts
Quoting Callum
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I have started my own software development using Oanda's API that allows me to pull in all the monthly/weekly/daily data for all instruments they have (about 160 all up) then run my own MA calculations to identify trends, I am looking for instances where the Daily and Weekly trend agree, then I can begin further analysis using the charts from there... 160 instruments narrowed down to 14 in about 1 hr. I intend on doing this every weekend. This week the instruments I am looking at are AU200AUD AUDJPY BCOUSD CH20CHF CORNUSD DE10YBEUR EURSGD EURUSD...
Ignored

My list of instruments is performing well, up something like 800 pips on positions entered on Monday. News helps but as I have seen this week if you are on the right side of the trend the news in your favor tends to have an exaggerated reaction where as news against the trend tends to be stomped on quickly.

Now I have a good collection of positions, trade management comes to the fore, previously I would take partial profits, however reading the millipede thread I am now looking to maybe add positions to my winners and let them play out.
Thanks again Fartist for opening my eyes(again) to the power of the trend!
 
 
  • Post #187
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  • Sep 5, 2014 1:17am Sep 5, 2014 1:17am
  •  Graviton
  • Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Member | 1,096 Posts
Quoting fartist
Disliked
A Pinbar is simply a pullback on the lower timeframe. And by going long at the open of the next candle, chances are you are trading into resistance on the lower timeframe.
Ignored
That's a very good point fartist. I don't use pinbars or any candle formations in my trading. They are usually used by traders trying to catch reversals at the tops and bottoms of trends, which almost always ends in disaster. Just think of the odds of catching the one reversal candle out of 100 to 200 on a chart. I'm sure you use them differently and I'm looking forward to seeing how. Happy trading!
 
 
  • Post #188
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  • Sep 5, 2014 1:46am Sep 5, 2014 1:46am
  •  fartist
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Sep 2010 | 933 Posts
Quoting Callum
Disliked
{quote} My list of instruments is performing well, up something like 800 pips on positions entered on Monday. News helps but as I have seen this week if you are on the right side of the trend the news in your favor tends to have an exaggerated reaction where as news against the trend tends to be stomped on quickly. Now I have a good collection of positions, trade management comes to the fore, previously I would take partial profits, however reading the millipede thread I am now looking to maybe add positions to my winners and let them play out....
Ignored
Hi Callum,

I'm so excited at your progress! Once you catch these trends that yield massive risk reward, you'll never consider looking for a 1 to 3 risk reward trade anymore.

Yes you're right that when a trend gets going, the best thing could happen is some fundamental piece of news that comes out to further push the trend in your direction. E.g. Euro when the ECB cut rates earlier

Fartist
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
 
 
  • Post #189
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  • Sep 5, 2014 1:48am Sep 5, 2014 1:48am
  •  fartist
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Sep 2010 | 933 Posts
Quoting Graviton
Disliked
{quote} That's a very good point fartist. I don't use pinbars or any candle formations in my trading. They are usually used by traders trying to catch reversals at the tops and bottoms of trends, which almost always ends in disaster. Just think of the odds of catching the one reversal candle out of 100 to 200 on a chart. I'm sure you use them differently and I'm looking forward to seeing how. Happy trading!
Ignored
Hi Graviton,

Yes using them in isolation more often than not result in disaster. That's what happens when a trader is trading with incomplete information.

I'll share how i use these patterns in my next posts and always glad to have you around!

Fartist
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
 
 
  • Post #190
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  • Sep 5, 2014 5:23am Sep 5, 2014 5:23am
  •  fartist
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Sep 2010 | 933 Posts
Tilting the odds to your favour

As you know the danger of trading Pinbar & Engulfing patterns in isolation can be dangerous and misleading.

In this post i will share with you the factors i consider before taking these trading setups.

1) Trend - I only trade these setups when i have an obvious trend going on. In an uptrend i only look for a bullish candlestick patterns and ignore all bearish ones.

2) Area - Even if you are trading with the trend, you want to trade at a area whereby the pullback could potentially end which leads the continuation of a trend. You want an area which is obvious with traders and institution watching. I define it using my Value Zone and Support Resistance. The more obvious the better.

3) Momentum - You want momentum leading up to the area of interest. Why? From an order flow perspective (for longs), you get momentum as offers are being hit aggressively or as offers are being pulled away. When offers are being hit aggressively, chances it will tend to slow down in front of an important area. Because those who are looking to short could possibly be placing heavy offers or looking to hit the bids at that area. So at this junction, you have longs who are in profits and shorts who are ready to slam the market the other way.
If you are long what would you do? Chances are you will start trailing your stops or take profits at the important area. Either way you have longs who will drop the ball at the first sign of trouble. And when you have longs who are jittery and people looking to short because they are with the trend, you can expect momentum to reverse to the downside as quickly.

4) Swing H/L taken out - If i'm looking to short, i like to see previous highs taken out before forming a bearish reversal pattern. Why?
The highs will be obvious and many traders & institutions will pay attention to it. They will either look to long on breakout or short at the high. So when price does trade above the high only to come back lower, what does it tell you? Those who long on breakouts are losing and those who went short are earning.
And logically those longs would have their stops placed below the highs which usually trigger further downside momentum.

5) Size - I want the candlestick pattern to be larger relative to the prior few candles. The longer the wick the stronger the rejection! Objectively i need the candlestick to be at least 1.5 times ATR.

Some charts to illustrate my point..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: eu.png
Size: 32 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: uj.png
Size: 36 KB


Let me know if anyone has any questions.

Fartist
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
 
 
  • Post #191
  • Quote
  • Sep 6, 2014 7:28am Sep 6, 2014 7:28am
  •  Gonzalon
  • | Joined Sep 2014 | Status: Member | 38 Posts
Hi all,
i would like to thank Fartist for the great thread he has created. I started trading just two months ago, and this thread is being really helpful. I would be interested in knowing more about the trades that Fartist (and everyone else if available) have just entered to see if i would also go for it.
Thanks folks
 
 
  • Post #192
  • Quote
  • Sep 7, 2014 2:44am Sep 7, 2014 2:44am
  •  fartist
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Sep 2010 | 933 Posts
This week's Market Analysis here..

Inserted Video
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
 
 
  • Post #193
  • Quote
  • Sep 7, 2014 9:18am Sep 7, 2014 9:18am
  •  davide0085
  • | Joined Aug 2014 | Status: Member | 7 Posts
Hi Fartist! Hi friends! I'm Davide from Italy. I really appreciate the way you study the market and your trading strategy.
It fits very well to my ideas! For this reason here i am in your thread, ready to cooperate and ride the trend without limits.

Have a nice sunday guys
 
 
  • Post #194
  • Quote
  • Sep 7, 2014 9:43am Sep 7, 2014 9:43am
  •  taozemin
  • | Joined Sep 2012 | Status: Member | 11 Posts
Hi, fartist. I am definitely a trend follower, too. My trend definition is a bit stricter. I usually find out the pair in correct rising order or correct falling order, and monitor the market movement before pull the final triger! It's a heavy burden to go over all the symbols. Can we write a formula to filter out the symbols that meet a certain criteria? Thank you for your prompt reply.
 
 
  • Post #195
  • Quote
  • Sep 7, 2014 6:40pm Sep 7, 2014 6:40pm
  •  Callum
  • | Joined Sep 2012 | Status: Member | 213 Posts
Quoting fartist
Disliked
This week's Market Analysis here.. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rmENvnlLo2U
Ignored
Hi Fartist,

Thanks for the analysis, good to have confirmation of ideas going forward!
Couple of things, with the boon analysis thats quite a pullback you are looking for, wouldn't you say if price did pull back that far and took out the previous swing low the trend would be starting to look weak.? The area I am looking at is in green in my screenclip, your area is red.. interested in how you view that..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: Screenshot1.png
Size: 15 KB


Also, looking forward to hearing how you decide to get out of a trade - or did I miss that in the thread somewhere?

Here's to another good week catching some trends and building positions!!
Callum
 
 
  • Post #196
  • Quote
  • Sep 8, 2014 7:17am Sep 8, 2014 7:17am
  •  rawgo
  • | Joined Mar 2012 | Status: Member | 2 Posts
Hello Fartist,

I have been reading all your posts. Awesome.

Is it wise to apply trailing stop with trend trading..instead of TP. I read a book, "Trend Following by Michael Covel" . it advises to let the trade run but am worried, i might leave it and it reverses
 
 
  • Post #197
  • Quote
  • Sep 8, 2014 7:26am Sep 8, 2014 7:26am
  •  fartist
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Sep 2010 | 933 Posts
Quoting Callum
Disliked
{quote} Hi Fartist, Thanks for the analysis, good to have confirmation of ideas going forward! Couple of things, with the boon analysis thats quite a pullback you are looking for, wouldn't you say if price did pull back that far and took out the previous swing low the trend would be starting to look weak.? The area I am looking at is in green in my screenclip, your area is red.. interested in how you view that.. {image} Also, looking forward to hearing how you decide to get out of a trade - or did I miss that in the thread somewhere? Here's to another...
Ignored
Hi Callum,

For this setup i'm using the value zone entry. Thus i will queue where i see price has historical tendency for a bounce (The 50EMA).

The level you've highlighted is a good level as well, but watch where your Stoploss will be. You do not want to be cutting into the 50EMA.

With regards to exits, i will exit usually when price closes beyond my EMA or stop to make a higher high (for longs). There's no hard and fast rule here and it depends on the structure of the market at that point in time.

Hope that helps!

Fartist
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
 
 
  • Post #198
  • Quote
  • Sep 8, 2014 7:35am Sep 8, 2014 7:35am
  •  fartist
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Sep 2010 | 933 Posts
Quoting taozemin
Disliked
Hi, fartist. I am definitely a trend follower, too. My trend definition is a bit stricter. I usually find out the pair in correct rising order or correct falling order, and monitor the market movement before pull the final triger! It's a heavy burden to go over all the symbols. Can we write a formula to filter out the symbols that meet a certain criteria? Thank you for your prompt reply.
Ignored
Hi taozemin,

I'm assuming you're trading the higher timeframe. If thats the case may i suggest this.

E.g if you entry is on the 4hour charts, you will only look to long when daily and weekly charts are above 50EMA.

Vice versa for shorts.

Applying that approach you should be able to scan 30+ products in less than half hour.

Let me know if it helps!

Fartist
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
 
 
  • Post #199
  • Quote
  • Sep 8, 2014 7:36am Sep 8, 2014 7:36am
  •  fartist
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Sep 2010 | 933 Posts
Hi Davide and Gonzalon,

Thank you for your kind words and glad to have both of you on board!

Cheers!

Fartist
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
 
 
  • Post #200
  • Quote
  • Edited at 2:14pm Sep 8, 2014 2:04pm | Edited at 2:14pm
  •  bidforvol
  • | Joined Aug 2014 | Status: Fun Manager | 29 Posts
Quoting rawgo
Disliked
Hello Fartist, I have been reading all your posts. Awesome. Is it wise to apply trailing stop with trend trading..instead of TP. I read a book, "Trend Following by Michael Covel" . it advises to let the trade run but am worried, i might leave it and it reverses
Ignored
You should hope rather than fear in that case: hope that the trend continues instead of fearing that it reverses. Give the trend enough room (within your risk appetite) to take part in the trend. With trend-following you will always give up the first and the last parts of the trend...

I can't count how many times I've cut myself out from a trend and it continues for sooooooo much longer! As a trend-follower it may be disastrous not to take part in the big winners.
 
 
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