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  • #84,381
  • Sep 1, 2014 9:52pm Sep 1, 2014 9:52pm
The RBA report sounds fairly positive or at least as-per-plan imo aside from this statement on currency:
"The exchange rate, on the other hand, remains above most estimates of its fundamental value, particularly given the declines in key commodity prices."

And sounds like no changes forecast in future with the old:
"a period of stability in interest rates."
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #84,382
  • Sep 1, 2014 9:56pm Sep 1, 2014 9:56pm
Now we have real exchange on AUD/USD , no sun storm and good RBA outcome http://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2014/mr-14-15.html

GDP tomorrow expecting better.
  • #84,383
  • Sep 1, 2014 9:56pm Sep 1, 2014 9:56pm
Quoting DifferTrader
after the candle close will show us the way

indeed, shall let the closure of candles tell us about what the market thinks of that statement. I noticed that sometimes market react differently from the tone of a statement, hence, price action and how the market reacts to it is more important than what was being mentioned.
  • #84,384
  • Sep 1, 2014 9:57pm Sep 1, 2014 9:57pm
Quoting SydneyGuru
Now we have real exchange on AUD/USD , no sun storm and good RBA outcome http://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2014/mr-14-15.html GDP tomorrow expecting better.

Sorry, but what does the weather or the sun storm got to do with the FX rate?

Care to enlighten me?

Thanks !
  • #84,385
  • Sep 1, 2014 10:00pm Sep 1, 2014 10:00pm
Quoting SkyrEk
FINALLY! some movement and AU lost the 93 handle for now. Hopefully this defines the trend better and enough of those boring consolidation. Since Stevens mentioned about AUD being above its fundamental value, hopefully the bulls start giving up seats for the bears entrance.
I agree ... traders started worry before the release -)))

So, it could be the last move up during this week.
  • #84,386
  • Sep 1, 2014 10:00pm Sep 1, 2014 10:00pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Nut case
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #84,387
  • Sep 1, 2014 10:04pm Sep 1, 2014 10:04pm
Quoting SydneyGuru
Now we have real exchange on AUD/USD , no sun storm and good RBA outcome http://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2014/mr-14-15.html GDP tomorrow expecting better.
better than expected?

current GDP figure is 3.1% i think..
(0.6 + 0.6 + 0.8 + 1.1)

if tmw figure is 0.4%.. GDP for 12 months is 2.9%
  • #84,388
  • Sep 1, 2014 10:05pm Sep 1, 2014 10:05pm
Quoting SydneyGuru
{quote} I agree ... traders started worry before the release -))) So, it could be the last move up during this week.
from next week we will have nothing but red bars????
interesting..
hail storm this time?
  • #84,389
  • Edited 10:26pm Sep 1, 2014 10:06pm | Edited 10:26pm
Also, as we can see here in the GBPAUD .... the way is down too.

Head and shoulders in the Weekly chart for GBPAUD.... Indicates to a downtrend ... Target No. 1 will be 1.67334

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Daily chart shows that the way is down in the long term.
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Ass it is shown below the SD is supporting the idea as well, but it is a matter of time.
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To the way down today or tomorrow ....

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  • #84,390
  • Sep 1, 2014 10:35pm Sep 1, 2014 10:35pm
Quoting mfa2h
Also, as we can see here in the GBPAUD .... the way is down too. Head and shoulders in the Weekly chart for GBPAUD.... Indicates to a downtrend ... Target No. 1 will be 1.67334 {image} Ass it is shown below the SD is supporting the idea as well, but it is a matter of time. {image} To the way down today or tomorrow .... {image} {image} {image}

Hi. Just my personal pov with the shown GA H&S- Because the right shoulder is so much higher than the left indicates that the latest pullback could potentially be just a correction. I don't personally trade higher right shoulder than left. Also last weeks doji could be signalling a fresh push to the upside.


ps. I have no idea what those pretty screen shots underneath are
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #84,391
  • Sep 1, 2014 10:44pm Sep 1, 2014 10:44pm
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Hi. Just my personal pov with the shown GA H&S- Because the right shoulder is so much higher than the left indicates that the latest pullback could potentially be just a correction. I don't personally trade higher right shoulder than left. Also last weeks doji could be signalling a fresh push to the upside. ps. I have no idea what those pretty screen shots underneath are
Hello there Micro

Yes, I actually agree with you, but it is also considered H@S chart but not clear yet; that is, we need two days from today to be sure, especially that we have a busy news week for most of the currencies.

Those are my indicators- some quantitative methods thing- they indicate that there is no cleat signals, but we should be careful
  • #84,392
  • Edited 11:43pm Sep 1, 2014 10:48pm | Edited 11:43pm
I personally expecting last top at 0.940xx when it will touch again top channel (0.95 , 0.946 , 0.940xx)

Market likes 3 point touch ... and it will be third touch up for current channel

watch RBA Glenn interview http://www.theage.com.au/business/th...02-10be8w.html
  • #84,393
  • Sep 2, 2014 6:37pm Sep 2, 2014 6:37pm
Better than expected GDP numbers, but the pair still resisted by .93. Looks like a bull trap at that level.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #84,394
  • Sep 2, 2014 6:44pm Sep 2, 2014 6:44pm
Quoting Ssm
Better than expected GDP numbers, but the pair still resisted by .93. Looks like a bull trap at that level.
better than expected but YY actually has fallen..

terms of trade also fell..

beat expectations but overall is bad..
  • #84,395
  • Sep 2, 2014 6:49pm Sep 2, 2014 6:49pm
Quoting HelloOz
{quote} better than expected but YY actually has fallen.. terms of trade also fell.. beat expectations but overall is bad..
Clearly can be seen that sentiment for this pair is to the downside. Later RBA governor might start his talking down tricks again.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #84,396
  • Sep 2, 2014 6:51pm Sep 2, 2014 6:51pm
Quoting Ssm
{quote} Clearly can be seen that sentiment for this pair is to the downside. Later RBA governor might start his talking down tricks again.
Positive Chinese numbers, yet this pair remains weak ..... tells a story .....
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #84,397
  • Sep 2, 2014 6:54pm Sep 2, 2014 6:54pm
Quoting Ssm
{quote} Positive Chinese numbers, yet this pair remains weak ..... tells a story .....
if we close below 925 (prefer on H4 chart) ..
im expecting further downside...

plz trade with care guys..

best of luck..

(if you dare, trade against sydneyguru )
  • #84,398
  • Sep 2, 2014 6:58pm Sep 2, 2014 6:58pm
Quoting HelloOz
{quote} if we close below 925 (prefer on H4 chart) .. im expecting further downside... plz trade with care guys.. best of luck.. (if you dare, trade against sydneyguru )
my 2 cents..
sorry abit messy
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  • #84,399
  • Sep 2, 2014 7:19pm Sep 2, 2014 7:19pm
Quoting HelloOz
{quote} if we close below 925 (prefer on H4 chart) .. im expecting further downside... plz trade with care guys.. best of luck.. (if you dare, trade against sydneyguru )
That area has been a tough nut to crack, there is the quarterly S1 at .9267 that it just doesent want to close below.
Have to see what the speech does but not looking to promising at the moment for much follow thru to the short side. cheers all.
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  • #84,400
  • Sep 2, 2014 8:29pm Sep 2, 2014 8:29pm
Quoting digger1
{quote}That area has been a tough nut to crack, there is the quarterly S1 at .9267 that it just doesent want to close below. Have to see what the speech does but not looking to promising at the moment for much follow thru to the short side. cheers all. {image}

each time it knocks on the door....the door actually opens a bit more....it is not hard to tell the direction of the knock......nice pair to trade.
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
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