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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #10,301
  • Sep 1, 2014 8:08pm Sep 1, 2014 8:08pm
Update on EUR/JPY 15M TF. Looks like the bulls have taken over. Any thoughts towards the development of a Bearish Crab/Gartley are gone.
  • #10,302
  • Edited 4:26am Sep 2, 2014 4:13am | Edited 4:26am
Quoting jpnavigate
Update on EUR/JPY 15M TF. Looks like the bulls have taken over. Any thoughts towards the development of a Bearish Crab/Gartley are gone.
Hi mate I traded this yesterday and closed a few hrs ago I was trading the PA with the structure .....aggr c ... closed and took 90 ish pips .... looks like it might have a bit more to go too



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Never said I was Batman,all I'm saying is you'll never see us together.
  • #10,303
  • Sep 2, 2014 7:15am Sep 2, 2014 7:15am
Quoting pampaq
{quote} Mack very good question, that's a problem for everyone, I think, is still at least for me. It has given very good results, cut losses dramatically, if not going the way I wanted, I take out first one hand and then close completely. With the profits, I try to take part in the first places of support or resistance, and so calm anxiety. Oliver Velez says that ONLY WE LOSE A CANDLE. And so, when we win, we win three or four, and when we lose, only one, + the spread. No wait, do not believe, just out, a candle, and so a, probability of success...
Good advice pampaq. I get a little frustrated with my progression as a trader Friday. I will have a few good days/weeks and then one trade can wipe it out because I didn't follow my rules. Cutting my losses quickly has been a difficult one for me. For some idiotic reason I would rather hold on to a losing position then to get out and reengage. Painful lesson I've learnt 3 or 4 times now.

Thanks for your response and words of wisdom.

Quoting Georji
{quote} good question Mack,,, it's the same as, we know the market moves in waves so why can't we ride those waves correctly and be on the winning ones? that's why studying the market and all the back testing on its behaviour is so important
Agreed. I try to keep a journal of all the charts of my trades, most of them mistakes but some I played perfectly. I try to learn from my mistakes. The hard part is distroying my bad habits and implementing new/good habits.

Quoting hfaruk10
{quote} If you are wrong let's say 70% of the time, you would be better off doing the exact opposite of what you thought was right as you were saying, but then wouldn't that be a kind of gamble. There is logic in your question, but determining the right from a wrong move would not be that easy.
Good point. Plus I love being right.

Thanks for your support guys.
  • #10,304
  • Sep 2, 2014 8:26am Sep 2, 2014 8:26am
Quoting pampaq
{quote} Arriving daily PRZ, control of price action there, and then short entry, to 38%. greetings. we will see {image}
Yesterday I took about 13 pips less spread, then I went to wait for a better setup, is now doing a abc and waiting C, if there is bullish weakness, should go short, TP 38% of last 1to1 D.
We'll see, greetings.
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  • #10,305
  • Sep 2, 2014 9:16am Sep 2, 2014 9:16am
the cd leg did not have any deep retracement so that ut could indicate the slow down in momemntum. on the other side we had a multiple confluence which unfortunately did not work out for me. any thoughts guys?
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  • #10,306
  • Sep 2, 2014 9:22am Sep 2, 2014 9:22am
Quoting headfake
{quote} Hi mate I traded this yesterday and closed a few hrs ago I was trading the PA with the structure .....aggr c ... closed and took 90 ish pips .... looks like it might have a bit more to go too {image} {image}
Congrats on an excellent trade. I was down on a lower TF (15M to be exact). Based on the PA I was seeing there, it looked like the longer term order flow on that TF was bearish; whereas, the shorter term order flow was bullish. Hence, my expectation of a possible bearish crab/gartley. This raises a good question. When we are on a lower TF, how many periods back should we use as our reference for long term order flow? I saw the bullish long term order flow for your trade on the 4HR TF, but didn't think it applied on the lower TF I was trading.
  • #10,307
  • Sep 2, 2014 10:35am Sep 2, 2014 10:35am
Quoting hfaruk10
the cd leg did not have any deep retracement so that ut could indicate the slow down in momemntum. on the other side we had a multiple confluence which unfortunately did not work out for me. any thoughts guys? {image}
I would say that your expectation wasn't misplaced. The longer term order flow was bearish; therefore, it would make sense to anticipate a reversal at the completion of Point D. Also, you had confluence: 1) completion of ABCD; 2) 78.6 retracement of XA; 3) 127 ext of AB; and 4) structure. However, the bullish momentum leading into Point D would raise my alert levels and cause me to sit back and watch PA because my expectation has now changed from a reversal at D to D being blown out of the water. Which is exactly what happened.
  • #10,308
  • Sep 2, 2014 4:04pm Sep 2, 2014 4:04pm
Quoting jpnavigate
{quote} I would say that your expectation wasn't misplaced. The longer term order flow was bearish; therefore, it would make sense to anticipate a reversal at the completion of Point D. Also, you had confluence: 1) completion of ABCD; 2) 78.6 retracement of XA; 3) 127 ext of AB; and 4) structure. However, the bullish momentum leading into Point D would raise my alert levels and cause me to sit back and watch PA because my expectation has now changed from a reversal at D to D being blown out of the water. Which is exactly what happened.
I completely agree with you, but at the moment of taking the trade I did not consider the PA as a serious "threat" to my trade, rather as someting minor. I was thinking more like I have multiple confluence, and there's no way for trade to go against.
  • #10,309
  • Sep 2, 2014 8:21pm Sep 2, 2014 8:21pm
Hey guys,

I have not invested too much time into analyzing harmonic patterns, but the time I do put in is allowing me to get the hang of it.....Here is another pattern I found just analyzing the market for about 20 minutes. i will be finishing school rather shortly, so I will have more time dedicate to looking for patterns and really get a solid understanding of price structure. My question to you veterans out there is....utilizing a harmonic analyzer like Scott Carney sells worth it?? If it saves time would it not be a good investment. Your thoughts on this would be great!
  • #10,310
  • Sep 2, 2014 8:26pm Sep 2, 2014 8:26pm
I haven't seen Scott Carney's "Harmonic Analyzer;" however, I would be inclined to say that purchasing that tool will be short-changing yourself. If you want to make it as a market professional, you really need to pay the price of admission. And, that means a lot of time learning price action. Do yourself a favor and take the time to learn the basics. You will be much better off in the long run. My 2 pips.
  • #10,311
  • Sep 2, 2014 8:48pm Sep 2, 2014 8:48pm
Sold the AUD/JPY pair on the 5M TF. Saw the completion of an AB=CD pattern and 161 ext of AB. Even though it was against the bullish order flow, thought it might be a good opportunity to jump in on a short term reversal. Plan was to manage the trade aggressively. As you can see, the candle following my entry was wild with an extreme range (20 pips). Crazy!
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  • #10,312
  • Sep 2, 2014 9:03pm Sep 2, 2014 9:03pm
Duly noted and will definitely take your advice....

Thanks JP!
  • #10,313
  • Edited 1:45am Sep 3, 2014 12:36am | Edited 1:45am
EURAUD M1,

ABCD aggressive C buy,

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update,
SL taken out
I follow only one person and his strategies...
  • #10,314
  • Sep 3, 2014 1:54am Sep 3, 2014 1:54am
AUDNZD M5

completed ABCD

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I follow only one person and his strategies...
  • #10,315
  • Sep 3, 2014 2:27am Sep 3, 2014 2:27am
Quoting jpnavigate
{quote} Congrats on an excellent trade. I was down on a lower TF (15M to be exact). Based on the PA I was seeing there, it looked like the longer term order flow on that TF was bearish; whereas, the shorter term order flow was bullish. Hence, my expectation of a possible bearish crab/gartley. This raises a good question. When we are on a lower TF, how many periods back should we use as our reference for long term order flow? I saw the bullish long term order flow for your trade on the 4HR TF, but didn't think it applied on the lower TF I was trading....

If your trading the 15m you want to at least be looking at the 1hr and possibly 4hr as well.... I like to know where price is on all tfs ,even if i'm trading 5m I want to know where price is on a daily POV as well ..... you need to be aware of the supply demand zones on all tfs especially the higher ones, just because your trading 15m and cant see it a 4hr demand zone is still there
Never said I was Batman,all I'm saying is you'll never see us together.
  • #10,316
  • Sep 3, 2014 8:08am Sep 3, 2014 8:08am
Quoting headfake
{quote} If your trading the 15m you want to at least be looking at the 1hr and possibly 4hr as well.... I like to know where price is on all tfs ,even if i'm trading 5m I want to know where price is on a daily POV as well ..... you need to be aware of the supply demand zones on all tfs especially the higher ones, just because your trading 15m and cant see it a 4hr demand zone is still there
  • #10,317
  • Sep 3, 2014 8:19am Sep 3, 2014 8:19am
Good morning

I'm looking at a ABCD pattern on the GBPNZD 3 min, which hasn't completed. Looking for a short term trade to go short but anyway...

The CD leg looks to be breaking down. Bulls have been trying to gain control the whole way down. This struggle has decreased the long term order flows momentum and strength. Bears still strong tho, looking for more weakness from bears and strength from Bulls.

right now price looks to be setting up a range below the RN 1.98

Structure is of medium strength and there is nice confluence of the 1 to 1, AB ext 138.6 and CB ext 127.2.

http://icmarkets.ctrader.com/images/screens/bDrwn.png

The only thing I find interesting is that the pullbacks have had equal measurments on the larger order flow / swings. Projecting the same pullback has price ending at the RN 1.97.

So I might be in / out / and back in depending on PA
http://icmarkets.ctrader.com/images/screens/dDrwn.png
  • #10,318
  • Sep 3, 2014 8:38am Sep 3, 2014 8:38am
Crab pattern, bearish, completely formed. AUD/NZD 30 min.

Beware the Day is bullish and the PA is trying to get trough a S/R.
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  • #10,319
  • Sep 3, 2014 10:39am Sep 3, 2014 10:39am
Quoting headfake
{quote} If your trading the 15m you want to at least be looking at the 1hr and possibly 4hr as well.... I like to know where price is on all tfs ,even if i'm trading 5m I want to know where price is on a daily POV as well ..... you need to be aware of the supply demand zones on all tfs especially the higher ones, just because your trading 15m and cant see it a 4hr demand zone is still there
Headfake,

I appreciate the response. I will keep that in mind as I'm trading moving forward.

Respectfully,
Jon
  • #10,320
  • Sep 3, 2014 4:03pm Sep 3, 2014 4:03pm
Hey guys,

Did anyone catch this Gartley back on Aug 29??? Profit potential if you do trailing stop losses or take partial profit at areas of confluence .618 of AB leg would have been insane!
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