ETMA_The Evolution

EG : Continuation of the newly established uptrend.
UCAD : Major Breakdown of key Support and the DC, worth a short, first target could be 830.
NZDUSD : Breakup of consolidation and DC rejection from support, worth a long.

Best,
B.R.

I must admit that i have the same long term view on the Euro, pending something extraordinary.

https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/n/nDAIUdfh_big.png

Continuation of the Down Trend, the EU.

Ed Saykota's Whipsaw song, follow these rules and u will be well ahead of the herd.:



The Whipsaw Song
2008 by Ed Seykota

to the tune of "The Crawdad Song,"
a traditional bluegrass tune in the key of A


Chorus:

A
You get a whip and I get a saw, honey

E7
You get a whip and I get a saw, babe

A A7
You get a whip and I get a saw

D7
One good trend pays for ‘em all.

A E7 A
Honey, trader, ba-by mine.


Banjo (Ride Your Winners):
What do we do when we catch a trend, honey ... etc.
We ride that trend right to the end.

Mandolin (Cut Your Losses):
What do we do when we show a loss, honey ... etc.
We give that dag-gone loss a toss.

Fiddle (Manage Your Risk):
How do we know when our risk is right, honey ... etc.
We make a lot of money and we sleep at night.

Guitar (Use Stops):
What do we do when the price breaks through, honey ... etc.
Our stops are in so there’s nothing to do.

Bass (Stick to the System):
What do we do when a draw down comes, honey
What do we do when it gets real big, babe
What do we do when it's even bigger ...
We stick to the plan and pull the trigger.

Banjo (File the News):
What do we do with a hot news flash, honey ... etc.
We stash that flash right in the trash.

Here's Your Preview Of This Week's Big Economic Events

Economic Calendar

1. Markit U.S. Services PMI (Mon): Economists estimate this index of services slipped to 58.0 in August from 60.8 in July.
2. New Home Sales (Mon): Economists estimate the pace of sales jumped 5.7% to an annualized rate of 429,000 units in July. "The NAHB homebuilder sentiment index improved as buyer traffic edged up while current conditions increased," noted Bank of America Merrill Lynch economists. "New home sales have essentially been moving sideways since the middle of next year with strength at the end of 2013 offset by weakness in the first half of this year. While sales have been soft, single family starts have recently increased, translating to a pickup in months supply."
3. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (Mon): Economists estimate this regional activity index ticked up to 12.8 in August from 12.7 in July. "Manufacturing surveys so far reported for early August have suggested continued strength in activity," said UBS's Kevin Cummins.
4. Durable Good Orders (Tues): Economists estimate that an unusual month for aircraft orders caused durable goods orders surged 7.1% in July. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft is estimated to have increased by 0.2%. "To say that the value of orders for Boeing aircraft surged may be an understatement," said Wells Fargo's John Silvia. "There were 270 orders recorded for the 777x and another 26 orders for its 787s."
5. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Tues): Economists estimate prices went nowhere month-over-month in June (+0.0%), or+ 8.24% year-over-year. "We think there are seasonal distortion issues related to the shrinking share of distressed sales which the seasonal factors are not capturing," said Bank of America Merrill Lynch economists. "Home price appreciation is slowing, but we don’t think this is the beginning of persistent outright declines."
6. Consumer Confidence (Tues): Economists estimate this index of confidence slipped to 88.5 in August from 90.9 in July. "After a stronger-than-expected 4.5-point jump higher in July, the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence probably fell back somewhat in August," said Credit Suisse economists. "A bounceback in equity prices, brightening employment prospects, and falling gasoline prices may limit the magnitude of an August index decline to about a point."
7. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Tues): Economists estimate this regional activity index ticked down to 6 in August from 7 in July.
8. Initial Jobless Claims (Thurs): Economists estimate weekly initial claims ticked up to 300,000 from 298,000 a week ago. "Initial claims have hovered around 300k for the past few weeks and should continue to do so as labor markets tighten," said Nomura economists.
9. Q2 GDP (Thurs): Economists estimate GDP growth will be revised down to 3.9% from 4.0% a month ago. Personal consumption is estimated to have slipped to 2.4% from 2.5%. Here's Morgan Stanley's Ted Wieseman: "Lower inventories partly offset by higher net exports should result in a downward revision to the 4.0% advance GDP estimate but with a better demand/inventories mix, a positive for the Q3 outlook. June results for nondurable manufacturing, wholesale, and retail ex auto inventories all came in well below elevated BEA assumptions, pointing to the +1.7pp contribution to Q2 growth from inventories being revised down to +1.1pp. The surprising $3 billion narrowing in the June trade deficit to a five-month low, however, points to the net exports contribution being revised up to -0.4pp from -0.6pp."
10. Pending Home Sales (Thurs): Economists estimate the pace of pending sales climbed 0.5%. "Since pending home sales track signed contracts, this suggests continued improvement in existing home sales," said Bank of Ameria Merrill Lynch economists.
11. Personal Income And Spending (Fri): Economists estimate income jumped by 0.3% while spending climbed by 0.2%. "Weekly earnings for production and nonsupervisory employees from the BLS employment report increased in July," noted Nomura economists. "As for personal spending, core retail sales hit a soft patch, increasing by only 0.1% in July as most categories showed a decline or lackluster growth. Moreover, energy spending likely slowed in July as the weather was more moderate than usual, leading to less demand for air conditioning."
12. Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (Fri): Economists estimate this regional activity index jumped to 56.5 in August from 52.6 in July. "This would be a rebound after a sharp fall in July and consistent with the upward move in the Philadelphia Fed index in August," said Barclays economists.
13. Univ. Of Michigan Confidence (Fri): Economists estimate this index of sentiment to registered at 80.2 in August, down from 81.8 in July but up from a preliminary estimate of 79.2. " If [79.2] sustained for the month as a whole, this would be the lowest level on the consumer sentiment index since November 2013," noted Credit Suisse economists. "But if equity markets continue to recover from their early-month swoon and geopolitical fears stabilize, we may see a slightly higher final sentiment reading for August. Lower gasoline prices probably are still helping to boost sentiment, as well."

Best,
B.R.

Bass, why do you have the turtle icon as your avatar?

Not being critical, just curious.

No worries my friend, because i deeply believe in the experiment that being done by Dennis and Eckhardt ( The Turtles), my trading style is the same, not the same rules but the same goals getting rich slowly through long term trend following on multiple asset classes (Diversification) with strong emphasis on MRM (Money and Risk Management).

Just check my charts in this thread, the ones attached for example and a turtle channel style trade on the GU, with an H1 turtles System 2, notice the scaling in short after every important channel breakdown followed by an ATR Trailing stop .

Best,
B.R.

I guessed that you didn't pick your avatar without some thought. Being a turtle requires tremendous discipline, which is why a lot of candidates did not make it. You quietly run your business here, and that speaks volumes.

I like to keep my business under the radar, although i post a lot of real good down to earth ideas and advice i don't have a lot responses because 90 % of the people here and like all of us, like the hype, the holy grail, the new guru who can teach them how to be rich in 1 -2 years and do all the hard work for them, share with them his charts, templates, indicators, entry and exits, just follow the guru type of people, the herd as i call it.

Well, here you have to do the hard work by ur self and that's what 90% percent of the FF members dislike, just check the start of my blog to see how many people asked for my indicators and templates which i declined to share and insisted that they do the homework and come out with the same templates that i have, all the indicators that i use being floating free on the web.

The idea here in my thread is to grow together, giving and taking serious stuff and quality materials, i'm an advocate of excellence myself, i try to be every day, i'm not there yet but excellence is a journey its not a goal, u keep reaching for higher grounds and goals every day, in trading being excellent is hard, you are satisfied if you hit 50% of your Trading targets and goals and with a sound risk and money management rules you will be OK in the end of the quarter/year.

Thanks for visiting my thread.
Best,
B.R.

USD weakness, doing it one more time : UJ and UCHF Short, GU flirting with resistance.

Best,
B.R.

Inspiration

THINK IT

http://www.chrisperruna.com/wp-conte...07_writing.PNG

“What the mind of man can Conceive and Believe, it can Achieve.” – Napoleon Hill

“You become what you think about all day long” – Ralph Waldo Emerson
“You are today where your thoughts have brought you, you will be tomorrow where your thoughts take you.” – James Allen
“Do not think of knocking out another person’s brains because he differs in opinion from you. It would be as rational to knock yourself on the head because you differ from yourself 10 years ago.” – Horace Mann, educator – How many traders feel this way?

BELIEVE IT

http://www.chrisperruna.com/wp-conte...7_notebook.PNG

“You can have anything you want. There are no limits to your possibilities.” – unknown
“Whether you believe you can do a thing or not, you are right.” – Henry Ford
“One of the greatest discoveries a man makes, one of his great surprises, is to find he can do what he was afraid he couldn’t do.” – Henry Ford
“We must walk consciously only part way toward our goal and then leap in the dark to our success.” — Henry David Thoreau

SEE IT

http://www.chrisperruna.com/wp-conte..._book_open.PNG

“If one advances confidentially in the direction of his dreams, and endeavors to live the life he has imagined, he will meet with a success unexpected in common hours.” – Henry David Thoreau
“Your biggest competitor is your own view of your future.” – Jim Taylor
“A person is limited only to his or her reality of what is possible financially. Nothing changes until that person’s reality changes. And a person’s financial reality will not change until he or she is willing to go beyond the fears and doubts of her own self-imposed limits.” – Robert T. Kiyosaki

LOVE IT

http://www.chrisperruna.com/wp-conte..._book_ring.PNG

“The average person puts only 25 percent of his energy and ability into his work. The world takes off its hat to those who put in more than 50 percent of their capacity, and stands on its head for those few and far between souls who devote 100 percent.” — Andrew Carnegie
“You have to find something that you love enough to be able to take risks, jump over the hurdles and break through the brick walls that are always going to be placed in front of you. If you don’t have that kind of feeling for what it is you’re doing, you’ll stop at the first giant hurdle.” – George Lucas”
“If all you’re receiving for your work is money you’re being grossly underpaid.” -Alan Cohen


WORK IT

http://www.chrisperruna.com/wp-conte...907_spiral.PNG

“Time is more valuable than money. You can get more money, but you cannot get more time.” – Jim Rohn
“Time is our most valuable asset, yet we tend to waste it, kill it, and spend it rather than invest it.” -Jim Rohn
“You can’t build a reputation on what you’re going to do” – Henry Ford
“Everything comes to him who hustles while he waits.” – Thomas Edison
“I buy when other people are selling.” – J. Paul Getty
“There was no such thing as half-trying. Whether it was running a race or catching a football, competing in school – we were to try. And we were to try harder than anyone else. We might not be the best, and none of us were, but we were to make the effort to be the best.” – Senator Robert F. Kennedy, in a tribute to his father, Joseph P. Kennedy
“We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.” – Aristotle
“Do not confuse motion and progress. A rocking horse keeps moving but does not make any progress.” Alfred A. Montapert, American Author
“Don’t measure yourself by what you’ve accomplished, but rather by what you should have accomplished with your abilities.” – John Wooden
“An Entrepreneur’s income generation is different than someone that worked at a job. Income generation for a person working was LINEAR. Entrepreneur income generation is EXPONENTIAL. Basically, very, very slow to begin, then as time progresses, explosive.” – Michael John

DON’T STOP

http://www.chrisperruna.com/wp-conte...book_shelf.PNG

“When one door closes, another door opens: but we so often look so long and so regretfully upon the closed door that we do not see the ones which open for us” – Alexander Graham Bell
“A window of opportunity won’t open itself.” – Dave Weinbaum
“Destiny is not a matter of chance, it is a matter of choice; it is not a thing to be waited for, it is a thing to be achieved. – William Jennings Bryan
“The quality of a person’s life is in direct proportion to their commitment to excellence, regardless of their chosen field of endeavor.” -Vince Lombardi
“I wasn’t going to be one of those people who died wondering, what if? I would keep putting my dreams to the test – even though it meant living with uncertainty and fear of failure. This is the shadow land of hope, and anyone with a dream must learn to live there.” – Alex Haley, writer

STAY THE COURSE

http://www.chrisperruna.com/wp-conte...0907_books.PNG

“There are no secrets to success. It is the result of preparation, hard work, learning from failure.” – General Colin Powell
“Many of life’s failures are people who did not realize how close they were to success when they gave up.” – Thomas Edison
“People are always blaming their circumstances for what they are. I don’t believe in circumstances. The people who get on in this world are the people who get up and look for the circumstances they want, and, if they can’t find them, make them.” – George Bernard Shaw
“Every worthwhile accomplishment, big or little, has its stages of drudgery and triumph; a beginning, a struggle and a victory.” – Ghandi

GIVE IT

http://www.chrisperruna.com/wp-conte...7_old_book.PNG

“If money is your hope for independence you will never have it. The only real security that a man will have in this world is a reserve of knowledge, experience, and ability.” — Henry Ford
“The man who will use his skill and constructive imagination to see how much he can give for a dollar, instead of how little he can give for a dollar, is bound to succeed.” — Henry Ford”
“Time and money spent in helping men do more for themselves is far better than mere giving.” – Henry Ford
“What you put out is what you get back and the reason so many are so short of money is that they put little or nothing out.” –Stuart Wilde
“The mediocre teacher tells. The good teacher explains. The superior teacher demonstrates. The great teacher inspires.” – William Ward, Texas Wesleyan University administrator

LIVE THE LIFE YOU’VE IMAGINED

Conceive It!
Believe It!
Achieve It!

“You can have anything you want — if you want it badly enough. You can be anything you want to be, do anything you set out to accomplish if you hold to that desire with singleness of purpose.” – Abraham Lincoln
“He who wishes to be rich in a day will be hanged in a year” Leonardo da Vinci
“I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand” Confucius
“As you make your rise to the top, never forget about the important things, especially you most important “true love”.” – Christopher Perruna

Mind, body and Soul, keep nurturing these on your way to excellence land and keep living and learning, ha !! and don't forget to shoot for the stars.

Excellence in and out of the trading arena.

Best,
B.R.

It Couldn’t Be Done
by Edgar Guest, 1941


Somebody said that it couldn’t be done,
But he with a chuckle replied
That “maybe it couldn’t,” but he would be one
Who wouldn’t say so till he’d tried.
So he buckled right in with the trace of a grin
On his face. If he worried he hid it.
He started to sing as he tackled the thing
That couldn’t be done, and he did it.


Somebody scoffed: “Oh, you’ll never do that;
At least no one ever has done it”;
But he took off his coat and he took off his hat,
And the first thing we knew he’d begun it.
With a lift of his chin and a bit of a grin,
Without any doubting or quiddit,
He started to sing as he tackled the thing
That couldn’t be done, and he did it.


There are thousands to tell you it cannot be done,
There are thousands to prophesy failure;
There are thousands to point out to you, one by one,
The dangers that wait to assail you.
But just buckle in with a bit of a grin,
Just take off your coat and go to it;
Just start to sing as you tackle the thing
That “cannot be done,” and you’ll do it.

This week's Economic Calendar :

1. MONDAY: Labor Day Holiday, U.S. Markets Closed
2. Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Tues): Economists estimate this index of manufacturing slipped to 57.9 in August from a preliminary estimate of 58.0 and a July print of 55.8. "Overall, with job hiring gathering momentum and input buying expanding at the sharpest pace for at least seven years, it seems US manufacturers are increasingly confident that the recovery is firmly back on track and are gearing up for a sustained rebound in production schedules over the months ahead," said Markit's Tim Moore.
3. ISM Manufacturing (Tues): Economists estimate ISM's manufacturing index declined to 57.0 in August from 57.1 in July. "We look for August manufacturing activity to grow at a slower pace, as (ISM-adjusted) readings on the Philly Fed and Empire State surveys both declined a few points," said Credit Agricole's Michael Carey. "Other regional surveys were mixed while the preliminary August Markit PMI posted an increase."
4. Construction Spending (Tues): Economists estimate spending jumped 1.0% in July, recovering some of the 1.8% decline in June. "The big swing owes to state and local spending which plunged 5.2% in June," said Bank of America Merrill Lynch economists. "That said, private nonresidential construction spending was down 1.6% in June while residential dropped 0.3%. We expect residential investment to recover given the recent sharp gain in housing starts and our expectation of greater renovation spending. We also look for a partial reversal in nonresidential construction spending."
5. Vehicle Sales (Wed): Analysts estimate auto sales climbed to an annualized rate of 16.6 million in August, up from 16.4 million in July. " The new vehicle market has been a notable economic bright spot this year," said Citi's Peter D'Antonio. "However, while our forecast is for another strong sales month (and we expect a similar result in September), the contribution to GDP growth from auto sales is likely to be much smaller in the third quarter than in the second. In the second quarter, a 0.8 million unit sales increase contributed 0.4 percentage point to GDP growth. Our forecast would put unit sales roughly unchanged in the third quarter."
6. Factory Orders (Wed): Economists estimate orders jumped 11.0% in July. "Durable goods orders surged 22.6% m/m in July, due to a large increase in aircraft orders, which should push overall factory orders to a large gain; we expect non durable goods orders to be unchanged on the month," said Barclays economists.
7. Beige Book (Wed): The Federal Reserve will publish its collection of economic anecdotes at 2 p.m. ET. Here's Credit Suisse: "Wednesday’s Beige Book may provide real-world anecdotes to supplement the better economic data reported recently. Any observations from business contacts related to wage growth or pricing power also would be of interest. There is a good chance either the Philadelphia or Dallas Federal Reserve Bank put together the Beige Book this time around."
8. ADP Employment Change (Thurs): Economists estimate 225,000 private payrolls were added in August. "Initial jobless claims and employment data from the Empire and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys were supportive of a trend-like month for hiring," said Bank of America Merrill Lynch economists. "Looking at as-reported ADP and BLS private payroll growth, the two series have an absolute average gap of 25,000 over the past six months. Our forecasts of 225,000 for ADP and 230,000 for BLS private payrolls are consistent with this pattern."
9. Initial Jobless Claims (Thurs): Economists estimate weekly initial claims ticked up to 300,000 from 298,000 a week ago. "Initial claims have hovered around 300k (near pre- recession lows) for the past couple of months and should continue to do so as labor markets tighten," said Nomura economists.
10. Unit Labor Costs (Thurs): Economists estimate labor costs climbed by 0.6% in Q2. "With wage growth now at the forefront of the discussion of monetary policy and inflation, unit labor costs could provide a good indication of underlying inflationary pressures," said Nomura economists.
11. Trade Balance (Thurs): Economists estimate the trade deficit expanded to $42.4 billion in July. "Sluggish aggregate demand among US trading partners may be constraining marginal US export growth," said Credit Suisse economists. "We estimate exports were flat in July. Imports may have picked up by a modest 0.2% in July after a cumulative 1.3% decline in May and June, the sharp decline in imported oil prices notwithstanding."
12. Markit Services PMI (Thurs): Economists estimate this index of services activity climbed to 58.7 in in August from a preliminary estimate of 58.5 but down from the July print of 60.8. “The U.S. service sector continues to enjoy a strong growth phase, but the latest survey suggests the recovery has lost some momentum since hitting a post-crisis peak in June," Markit's Tim Moore wrote. "Output expanded at the slowest pace for three months in August, while new business growth picked up only slightly from July’s recent low."
13. ISM Non-Manufacturing (Thurs): Economists estimate this index of services fell to 57.6 in August from 58.7 in July. "We look for another very strong non-manufacturing activity reading in August," said Citi's D'Antonio who forecasts a 59.0 print. "Early signals such as the regional Fed surveys and the traffic of potential home buyers have strengthened since July."
14. The Jobs Report (Fri): Economists estimate nonfarm payrolls increased by 225,000 in August, driven by a 210,000 gain in private payrolls. The unemployment rate is estimated to have declined to 6.1%. Average hourly earnings are estimated to have increased by 2.1% year-over-year. Here's Goldman Sachs' Kris Dawsey: "Employment indicators have strengthened a bit in August vs. July, including the employment components of the available service sector surveys, the Conference Board labor differential, and initial jobless claims. Our preliminary forecast for August payroll job growth is 240k, with the important caveat that we have yet to receive a few key pieces of data for the month, most notably the ISM nonmanufacturing report... With no special factors on weather, strikes, unusual composition in the prior month, fiscal policy issues, or obvious seasonal distortions, we think the August report should be a fairly “clean read” on the likely-strengthening underlying trend. We also anticipate a downtick of one-tenth in the unemployment rate to 6.1%, matching its prior cycle low set two months back. Should the participation rate give up its small July increase, the risk is skewed toward 6.0%, in our view."

Better watch it closely.

hi bassaramy, can you put alret/notification at bass dochian, ist verry goog indi...

I'm sure you can find a Donchian channel with your requested features on the web, just Google it.

ECB Unexpectedly Cuts Interest Rates as Outlook Darkens, somebody still in that bear trade ?
And The Daily to see the forest from the trees.

Le deluge of news events, if i'm in your shoes i will stay out of the markets today, be careful out there and good luck trading today.

Following yesterday's deluge (Its not over yet with today's NFP event risk also) the USD broke important resistance and closed above, its retesting as i post, what will it be today with the NFP expected to be released, retracement of yesterday's move down or continuation of the up trend ?

Finally the bullish outlook for the buck have materialized over the summer with the Eurozone worsening economic conditions which bring the ECB to unexpectedly cutting rates yesterday and the Hawkish Fed talk of rates hiking in the beginning of 2015, the shift of power is clearly in the favor of the Dollar.

Best,
B.R.

It was a good spring and summer for the trend following traders in the currencies markets, we have being blessed with a good numbers of trends on several D1 and W1 majors : EU, GU, NZD, UJ, UCHF and USD not to mention the Crosses after a long frustrated months of sideways markets and false breaks.

Remember Ed Saykota's Six steps, program Rules and the song behind it, May GOD be with the Trend.

Best,
B.R.